ALP 11.2%
Incumbent MP
Tim Watts, since 2013.
Geography
Southwestern suburbs of Melbourne. Gellibrand covers most of the Hobsons Bay council area, along with eastern parts of the Wyndham council area. Suburbs include Altona, Seaholme, Williamstown, Newport, Laverton and Point Cook.
Redistribution
Gellibrand shifted west, losing Spotswood and the remainder of Brooklyn to Fraser, and gaining Williams Landing from Lalor. These changes slightly reduced the Labor margin from 11.5% to 11.2%.
History
Gellibrand was created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. It has always been won by the ALP.
Gellibrand was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s John Mullens, a former state MP for Footscray. Mullens was expelled from the ALP in 1955 and joined the ALP (Anti-Communist), which evolved into the Democratic Labor Party. He lost his seat at the 1955 election.
Hector McIvor defeated Mullens in 1955. He held the seat for the next seventeen years, retiring at the 1972 election.
Ralph Willis won Gellibrand in 1972. He joined the Labor frontbench after the 1975 election defeat. Willis served as Shadow Treasurer for most of the Fraser government, but was replaced by Paul Keating shortly before the 1983 election.
Willis served as a cabinet minister for the entirety of the Hawke government, and upon the election of Paul Keating as Prime Minister, he was appointed Treasurer. He served in that role until the 1996 election, and retired in 1998.
Gellibrand was won in 1998 by Nicola Roxon. Roxon was promoted to the shadow ministry in 2001 and was appointed Minister for Health in the Rudd government after the 2007 election. She served as Attorney-General from 2011 until February 2013, when she returned to the backbench, before retiring at the 2013 election.
Labor’s Tim Watts was elected in Gellibrand in 2013, and has been re-elected three times. Watts has served as Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs since the 2022 election.
- Maya Arriaza (Family First)
- Ponraj Krishna Pandi (Greens)
- Tim Watts (Labor)
Assessment
Gellibrand is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Watts | Labor | 39,382 | 42.7 | -6.3 | 42.8 |
| Monica Clark | Liberal | 24,869 | 27.0 | -3.8 | 27.2 |
| Suzette Rodoreda | Greens | 15,241 | 16.5 | +2.7 | 15.6 |
| Abraham Isac | United Australia | 5,080 | 5.5 | -0.1 | 5.7 |
| Rob Braddock | One Nation | 2,802 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 3.1 |
| Chloe Glasson | Liberal Democrats | 2,185 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.5 |
| Andrew Charles | Victorian Socialists | 1,503 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.6 |
| Sharynn Moors | Federation Party | 1,135 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 4,729 | 4.9 | +1.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Watts | Labor | 56,738 | 61.5 | -1.5 | 61.2 |
| Monica Clark | Liberal | 35,459 | 38.5 | +1.5 | 38.8 |
Polling places in Gellibrand have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.9% in the west to 65.9% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.3% in the west to 22.9% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 13.3 | 58.9 | 14,988 | 16.5 |
| East | 22.9 | 65.9 | 12,540 | 13.8 |
| Central | 17.7 | 65.6 | 7,043 | 7.8 |
| Pre-poll | 13.9 | 59.8 | 37,465 | 41.3 |
| Other votes | 15.2 | 61.1 | 18,684 | 20.6 |
Election results in Gellibrand at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Between 2004 and 2010, Gellibrand was essentially Hobsons Bay plus Maribyrnong (LGAs) – now the eastern halves of Gellibrand and Fraser. How would The Greens perform nowadays on those boundaries?
@ Nicholas
The Greens will not do well on these boundaries areas like Point Cook is a very weak area for the Greens. Also Altona and Williamstown while gentrifying do not have a lot of young renters etc.
When was the last time, if ever, that the Liberals won a booth in this seat? It’s quite likely they’ll win a Point Cook one this year.
@Adam,
That’s a real possibility now given the gentrifying of the electorate and Labor struggling in this part of Melbourne.
Labor seem to be in long term decline here. According to Ben’s graph, Labor’s 2022 2PP was actually worse than their 2004 result where Labor did very poorly in Victoria (adjusted to current boundaries). To put some numbers on the decline, in 2004 the seat was 13 points more Labor than Victoria, but now it’s only roughly 6.5 points better for Labor. The 2022 state results in Williamstown were very good for the Liberals as well.
Agreed libs are gonna do well in the former safe seats of labor gellibrand gorton.
Seems to be most of Western Melbourne has seen a significant drop in the ttp and primary vote. State and federal Labor could very well be defeated in their own backyard if they don’t do something about this trend soon.
If Labor are going to get big swings against them here, Lalor, Gorton etc (say 6ish%), and the state wide swing is looking like 3-4%, then the swing will have to be lower in the eastern suburbs (and they will more than likely hold Chisholm). For all this talk of Labor’s woes in Victoria, there’s a very good chance they could coming out losing just 1 or 2 seats (McEwen/Aston).
Perhaps I have a vastly different view to most people on Tally Room. I think there could be an evident swing in Victoria, for sure. The scale of it will vary greatly though, even with an east-west divide. As I mentioned before, the further you get away from Melbourne CBD, the bigger the swing will be, which means seats like Hawke, Gorton, Lalor, Calwell and McEwen in the north and west will probably cop the biggest of all the possible swings. Conversely, I think that seats like Fraser, Gellibrand, Maribyrnong etc which demonstrate some suburban tendencies should see a smaller, less significant swing due to their proximity to the city, and of course in the East where it’s more affluent, Labor could very well withstand any swings and possible even hold Chisholm, Bruce, Aston and maybe even pick off Deakin from the Liberals.
I could be totally wrong on this and happy to be but this is how I see the situation in Victoria anyway. Those living closer to the city should have no qualms about the same issues facing the outer-suburbanites.
It actually wouldn’t surprise me that much if the expected pattern of Liberals outperforming in outer suburbs/underperforming elsewhere is relatively muted in Victoria, because in Victoria that pattern of swings already happened in 2022, presumably largely driven by Covid-related issues.
Historical note: one of my great-uncles (a wealthy businessman of the era) ran for the Liberals in Gellibrand in 1951. Possibly a Rolls-Royce was a suboptimal campaign vehicle in 1950s Footscray and Williamstown 🙂 (though as far as I know nobody vandalised it). He did manage to finish ahead of the Communists.
Probably agree Tommo, the results of the recent Queensland and WA elections also show this pattern with big swings (above average) towards the Liberal Party/LNP in the outer suburban districts where voters are more likely to be from a blue collar, self-employed background. In contrast all the inner city and middle ring districts saw muted/below average swings against Labor.