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Considering the relatively high Greens vote in Footscray at the 2022 state election (22.42% primary, 32.48% 3CP) and in Maribyrnong for the 2024 Vic Councils election (22.10%), I could see this being a Greens/Labor 2CP. Which Labor would then win.
Of course, Fraser includes more than just those areas. But the Greens did also do quite well in the single Brimbank council ward they ran in.
@ Matthew possibly longer term. I think this election cycle Greens will focus on Wills which is more winnable in the current circumstances and will look at Fraser in a future election cycle. I cant imagining this ever being a GRN V LIB seat.
I think a teal would do well in some parts of Fraser, e.g. Seddon & Yarraville.
Greens seem to be putting effort into this seat – a very good candidate, an actual ground campaign which has already gotten them good local government results (4 Green councillors in single member wards overlapping this seat). Mulino does not seem like the kind of MP who ever expected to fight hard for his seat.
It’s still ultimately going to be very tough for Greens to win without Liberal preferences. Labor falling into 3rd from 45% 3CP would be a disastrous election for them
I can see why the Greens are giving Labor a run for their money. The Greens are testing the waters it seems – seeing how they will fare if they put effort in. In the state seat of Footscray, the 2PP split is 54/46 (ALP vs GRN) after Labor copped a huge swing and the Greens and Vic Socialists polled well.
The Brimbank part is still ALP vs LIB which means Labor will hold for now. There’s a chance of Fraser becoming ALP vs GRN especially if Labor’s vote declines (as per polling) and the Greens and Vic Socialists pick up votes.
The close 2CP in Footscray was due to the Liberals preferencing the Greens.
I always find it surprising how well the Greens do in Footscray. Yes, it is close to the city, but every time I’ve been there it feels more like Dandenong than Fitzroy.
The centre of Footscray itself still looks pretty run down and old, but get a few blocks away and it’s full of hipsters and young professionals in restored old houses and new apartments.
Another thing to note is that as Vic Socialists won’t be running candidates in either Wills or Calwell this will be their foremost single-member electorate and they may run a decent campaign further damaging Labor.
This wasn’t really mentioned but the Liberal candidate here Luan Walker has withdrawn his candidacy over Section 44 issues with Vietnamese citizenship.
Do the Liberals vet their candidates at all? Both the Fraser and Scullin candidates were announced ages ago and this close to an election they find out about this?
Should be an easy Labor hold with Greens getting closer and possibly making 2PP.
@Tommo9 – according to both of the statements made about their withdrawals, both the Scullin and Fraser candidates had lodged applications last year to renounce their citizenship for France and Vietnam (respectively). In the case of Walker his application wasn’t approved, and in Scullin the French Embassy couldn’t find evidence of citizenship, but in both cases precaution was the best choice and as such they both withdrew. Obviously both of them weren’t going to win but either way it’s a massive blunder and while at least they tried it would have been best to be given the all clear before their candidacy was announced.
I’m glad they did actually, because this is a perfect encapsulation of how section 44 is completely broken and anti-democratic. These guys did everything right, gave it heaps of time, and yet they can’t run for public office.
@Ben Raue I agree with you. However it is to my understanding that Section 44 also allows candidates to run and if they win sit in parliament for as long as they’ve taken ‘reasonable steps to renounce their citizenship’ (or words to that effect) which can include documentation that they’ve taken the appropriate steps at the appropriate times, even if it wasn’t approved. I would’ve thought that as long as there was evidence that they did the procedures it would actually be considered legitimate, otherwise Fatima Payman wouldn’t have been able to run 3 years ago given her Afghan citizenship couldn’t be cancelled as the Taliban was back in power.
Of course but that is frustratingly vague and can’t be proven either way without a High Court referral. So it’s a massive disadvantage for a candidate who has a question mark over their head. And of course it means people don’t get a chance to run when they are highly unlikely to win because people don’t want to risk it. And running for office is an important right whether you can win or not.
Even though it’s theoretically possible to overcome those burdens, they still are a burden that hinders some Australians from exercising their democratic rights.