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Considering the relatively high Greens vote in Footscray at the 2022 state election (22.42% primary, 32.48% 3CP) and in Maribyrnong for the 2024 Vic Councils election (22.10%), I could see this being a Greens/Labor 2CP. Which Labor would then win.
Of course, Fraser includes more than just those areas. But the Greens did also do quite well in the single Brimbank council ward they ran in.
@ Matthew possibly longer term. I think this election cycle Greens will focus on Wills which is more winnable in the current circumstances and will look at Fraser in a future election cycle. I cant imagining this ever being a GRN V LIB seat.
I think a teal would do well in some parts of Fraser, e.g. Seddon & Yarraville.
Greens seem to be putting effort into this seat – a very good candidate, an actual ground campaign which has already gotten them good local government results (4 Green councillors in single member wards overlapping this seat). Mulino does not seem like the kind of MP who ever expected to fight hard for his seat.
It’s still ultimately going to be very tough for Greens to win without Liberal preferences. Labor falling into 3rd from 45% 3CP would be a disastrous election for them