Fraser – Australia 2025

Considering the relatively high Greens vote in Footscray at the 2022 state election (22.42% primary, 32.48% 3CP) and in Maribyrnong for the 2024 Vic Councils election (22.10%), I could see this being a Greens/Labor 2CP. Which Labor would then win.

Of course, Fraser includes more than just those areas. But the Greens did also do quite well in the single Brimbank council ward they ran in.

@ Matthew possibly longer term. I think this election cycle Greens will focus on Wills which is more winnable in the current circumstances and will look at Fraser in a future election cycle. I cant imagining this ever being a GRN V LIB seat.

I think a teal would do well in some parts of Fraser, e.g. Seddon & Yarraville.

Greens seem to be putting effort into this seat – a very good candidate, an actual ground campaign which has already gotten them good local government results (4 Green councillors in single member wards overlapping this seat). Mulino does not seem like the kind of MP who ever expected to fight hard for his seat.

It’s still ultimately going to be very tough for Greens to win without Liberal preferences. Labor falling into 3rd from 45% 3CP would be a disastrous election for them

I can see why the Greens are giving Labor a run for their money. The Greens are testing the waters it seems – seeing how they will fare if they put effort in. In the state seat of Footscray, the 2PP split is 54/46 (ALP vs GRN) after Labor copped a huge swing and the Greens and Vic Socialists polled well.

The Brimbank part is still ALP vs LIB which means Labor will hold for now. There’s a chance of Fraser becoming ALP vs GRN especially if Labor’s vote declines (as per polling) and the Greens and Vic Socialists pick up votes.

The close 2CP in Footscray was due to the Liberals preferencing the Greens.

I always find it surprising how well the Greens do in Footscray. Yes, it is close to the city, but every time I’ve been there it feels more like Dandenong than Fitzroy.

The centre of Footscray itself still looks pretty run down and old, but get a few blocks away and it’s full of hipsters and young professionals in restored old houses and new apartments.

Another thing to note is that as Vic Socialists won’t be running candidates in either Wills or Calwell this will be their foremost single-member electorate and they may run a decent campaign further damaging Labor.

This wasn’t really mentioned but the Liberal candidate here Luan Walker has withdrawn his candidacy over Section 44 issues with Vietnamese citizenship.

Do the Liberals vet their candidates at all? Both the Fraser and Scullin candidates were announced ages ago and this close to an election they find out about this?

Should be an easy Labor hold with Greens getting closer and possibly making 2PP.

@Tommo9 – according to both of the statements made about their withdrawals, both the Scullin and Fraser candidates had lodged applications last year to renounce their citizenship for France and Vietnam (respectively). In the case of Walker his application wasn’t approved, and in Scullin the French Embassy couldn’t find evidence of citizenship, but in both cases precaution was the best choice and as such they both withdrew. Obviously both of them weren’t going to win but either way it’s a massive blunder and while at least they tried it would have been best to be given the all clear before their candidacy was announced.

I’m glad they did actually, because this is a perfect encapsulation of how section 44 is completely broken and anti-democratic. These guys did everything right, gave it heaps of time, and yet they can’t run for public office.

@Ben Raue I agree with you. However it is to my understanding that Section 44 also allows candidates to run and if they win sit in parliament for as long as they’ve taken ‘reasonable steps to renounce their citizenship’ (or words to that effect) which can include documentation that they’ve taken the appropriate steps at the appropriate times, even if it wasn’t approved. I would’ve thought that as long as there was evidence that they did the procedures it would actually be considered legitimate, otherwise Fatima Payman wouldn’t have been able to run 3 years ago given her Afghan citizenship couldn’t be cancelled as the Taliban was back in power.

Of course but that is frustratingly vague and can’t be proven either way without a High Court referral. So it’s a massive disadvantage for a candidate who has a question mark over their head. And of course it means people don’t get a chance to run when they are highly unlikely to win because people don’t want to risk it. And running for office is an important right whether you can win or not.

Even though it’s theoretically possible to overcome those burdens, they still are a burden that hinders some Australians from exercising their democratic rights.

Living in this electorate (also acknowledging my bias as a greens vol) it’s pretty hard to miss the amount of greens placards in particular in areas they did not do so well in last time (sunshine area) placards don’t vote obviously, but it’s pretty hard to understate the sheer volume of them

If the Labor primary vote falls to around 30 there’s a good chance they go to third in the 3CP, giving the Greens this seat. Not a likelihood this election but if the Liberals were to put up a strong candidate I could see it for 2028.

Greens have been putting quite a bit of effort into this electorate, the Labor brand is severely damaged on this side of town so if things continue to worsen then there is an outside chance the Greens could snag this electorate.

It really depends on whether Labor’s unpopularity at the state level (down ~12 points) translates federally, if so then yes there’s an outside chance the Greens win Fraser this election cycle.

Greens would push the Libs out first based o n 2022 they barely made 1/3 of the vote after preferences

45-30-25 3CP last time. Think all the factors are there that this is primed for a big swing and will be a top target next time.

Dual Grn/VicSoc campaigns both running into areas that probably haven’t had much campaign attention in past years, so room for growth – all on a classic left-wing issues that should resonate very well here. Huong Truong the perfect candidate to make inroads with forever-ALP voters in the Vietnamese-Australian community.

Still enough of a Liberal vote beyond the ring road that they should hold around a third of the vote and avoid this becoming a Wills/Cooper.

Clearly with no conservative candidate this comes down to a centre vs progressive battle. With the Greens finally stepping up their effort in locations that are ripe for the picking and the Socialists with a strong message I can see the Footscray-Seddon-Yarravile-Spotswood polling booths going green or very close. The kingmakers will be the otherwise Liberal voters in the Ascot Vale and outside the ring road booths to either go with Labor or blow it all up and make life hard for Mulino. Lord knows us in the west need proper representation rather than just industry representation. Will be a good one to watch with future ramifications.

Honestly see the Greens winning this before they win Cooper, especially the way Fraser continues to gentrify and densify whereas the Greener south of Cooper is pricing out younger people and the northern parts are more suited to middle-class young families who are as likely to vote Labor as they are Green.

Prime Minister has visited here and surprisingly with Premier. It’s not a good look for Labor as they really shouldn’t have to be putting any effort in here given the margin that this electorate has.

@SpaceFish I suspect that Mulino and more are getting increasingly concerned.

As noted by others, the Greens have been running a strong campaign her for a while now, and the local government results show that its having some impact.

I think we could see the combining of a few factors to create a really interesting result:

1. The Greens campaign – a strong candidate and a good local gov result shows there is potential.
2. The lack of a real Liberal campaign – S44 aside, have the Liberals ever tried here?
3. The Werribee By-election – Showing the bat’s are out for Labor, and those votes have gotta go somewhere
4. The Victorian Socialists campaign – They seem to have a bit of a base here.
5. Labor resources being stretched – Considering Wills, Macnamara, and other marginals Mulino might be finding himself struggling for resources in a fight he didn’t expect.
6. Mulino himself is not a good MP for the area – A Labor Right MP being parachuted in from Casey could see a belated Fowler impact now that people are pointing it out.

Will be an interesting one to watch.

Looks like the Liberals do have a candidate for this electorate.

https://vic.liberal.org.au/team/satish-patel

The 2022 federal results in St Albans are interesting. It’s one of the few places in Australia at that election where there were double digit swing primary vote swings away from Labor directly translating into nearly double digit primary swings to Liberal.
On the whole, it seems like the Labor’s vote is in slow decline here and Liberal/right wing vote and Green vote are gradually increasing. Because of that trend, I wouldn’t count the Liberals out of making the 2CP over the long term.

Interesting tidbit when it comes to how well the Greens did in the 2024 Council elections, this the federal seat they hold the most single-member council seats in (four) after Wills (five, includes a section of Yarra Council recently redistributed). Lucy Nguyen winning Kororoit Creek Ward with a 33.7% primary for the Greens in the more suburban western side of the electorate (Sunshine, Brooklyn, Albion) is the most promising sign for them. Additionally in the neighboring Sunshine North centered Harvester Ward Victorian Socialists came within ~3% of victory.

Regardless, Daniel Mulino doesn’t appear to be a strong local member as despite the redistributions benefiting him in the last two federal elections he has had a swing against him each time and I’m expecting this to repeat again. If you look at the primary vote in 2019 an 8.1% against him and in 2022 despite Labor getting into office another 8.7% again which is a staggering 16.8% of the primary vote over the last two elections. I guess as it was mentioned in other threads with seats out in this part of Melbourne with the re-alinement in politics with Labor doing worse with voters out this way but improving in Eastern Melbourne.

I have never met Daniel Mulino in person, he may very well be relatable in person but from a far he does like an extremely uninspiring MP. And those primary swings tell a story.

As far as I’m aware, Mulino owes his pre-selection to Adem Somyurek, which can never be a good a sign.

Mulino was previously an MLC from Eastern Metro which screams parachute to me. Their first choice when the electorate was created was Natalie Suleyman (who’s now a state government minister) but apparently got passed over due to factional clashes and her reputation as Mayor of Brimbank.

If Bill Shorten contested this seat instead of staying in Maribyrnong it probably could’ve been much safer. Having said that, it seems that Mulino has been making efforts in this electorate to campaign and all. He’s not a bad MP so to speak (and has the academics to boost his profile) but perhaps he’s not the best fit for this electorate.