Franklin – Australia 2025

Possible Greens target seat.

If the Greens as expected are going to focus heavily on housing policy then that could be enhanced by a serious campaign against the housing minister. There would definitely be animosity over the HAFF saga, which was by far the most protracted and hostile of the inter party negotiations.

They got around 20% in the state election, and in the 2022 Senate election – a high enough result to not be laughed off if they declared it a Target seat. At a glance it would be one where Greens would need Lib preferences but that’s possible in an election where Liberals goal is to push Labor into minority.

Nick McKim switching to the lower house, risking his political career to contest his old electorate would be the highest profile option. He has gotten as high as 24% here in 2010 though he lost 10% of that 4 years later. That’s not the only option however.

Easy ALP retain if Greens don’t target.

The Greens might have a better chance in Clark once Andrew Wilkie retires. The Senate results show a smaller gap in primary votes between ALP and Greens in Clark than in Franklin. Add to that, in Franklin, there’s a sizeable vote for various populist and minor right-wing parties such as JLN, LDP and One Nation. Their voters aren’t very Green-friendly.

I don’t see the Greens targeting either seat, let alone winning.

Clark would be a much stronger Greens prospect if not for Wilkie.

But even with right wing minors, 3 candidate preferred in Franklin is 33/44/23 (Lib/Lab/Grn).
For comparison Griffith in 2019 was 43/32/25 before going to 34/30/36 in 2022. Can the Greens pick up a similar swing from Labor instead of the LNP without an incumbent? Absolutely – Bandt picked up a 13% swing, mostly from Labor, when he first took Melbourne in 2010. That’s with a retiring incumbent, sure, but also similar “2nd term of an underwhelming ALP government” circumstances.

Add to that the Greens only just missing out on a 2nd seat at the state level, with a new election happening any time now, and that’s good cause for Greens to really pick up the pace of campaigning in Franklin (and the rest of tasmania). But from a different perspective, there isn’t really much else to play for in Tasmania federally – as previously mentioned Clark is unwinnable and the Greens seem to have recovered from their late 2010s slump to the point where the senate seat is safe (and McKim could safely vacate). Either way, seems like a good bet.

Interesting results from Cradoc, a small town in the Huon Valley located 11km southwest of Huonville.

Federal results, 2022:
Primaries:
* Liberal: 28.68% (–5.57%)
* Labor: 23.96% (–10.12%)
* Greens: 23.23% (+2.92%)
TPP:
* Labor: 59.17% (+1.51%)
* Liberal: 40.83% (–1.51%)

Voice referendum results, 2023:
* No: 55.44%
* Yes: 44.56%

State results, 2024:
* Liberal: 38.96% (–3.81%)
* Greens: 24.35% (+1.54%)
* Labor: 18.61% (–4.61%)

I can see Cradoc being a Liberal vs Greens booth in 2025, with the Liberals winning it due to a declining Labor vote going to both the Liberals and the Greens. Does anyone know why the Greens vote is so damn high in such a small town?

Booth comparison from the 2022 federal election, the 2023 Voice referendum and the 2024 state election: https://jmp.sh/zy5G5fe1

Notably the Liberals won most booths on the state level while Labor won most booths in the federal level. A few Greens booths are scattered around the place, both in Hobart and in some small towns that must have a hippie/leftist vibe to them (most notably Cygnet).

What’s interesting though is that few of the booths recorded over 40% primaries for the winning candidate, and only a handful even got over 35%. The range was usually between 30% and 35%, but there were even a few that were lower than 30%. One booth (Southport) was won by Labor on the state level by just one vote.

I will be doing more of these soon. Next up will be Clark.