Franklin – Australia 2025

Possible Greens target seat.

If the Greens as expected are going to focus heavily on housing policy then that could be enhanced by a serious campaign against the housing minister. There would definitely be animosity over the HAFF saga, which was by far the most protracted and hostile of the inter party negotiations.

They got around 20% in the state election, and in the 2022 Senate election – a high enough result to not be laughed off if they declared it a Target seat. At a glance it would be one where Greens would need Lib preferences but that’s possible in an election where Liberals goal is to push Labor into minority.

Nick McKim switching to the lower house, risking his political career to contest his old electorate would be the highest profile option. He has gotten as high as 24% here in 2010 though he lost 10% of that 4 years later. That’s not the only option however.

Easy ALP retain if Greens don’t target.

The Greens might have a better chance in Clark once Andrew Wilkie retires. The Senate results show a smaller gap in primary votes between ALP and Greens in Clark than in Franklin. Add to that, in Franklin, there’s a sizeable vote for various populist and minor right-wing parties such as JLN, LDP and One Nation. Their voters aren’t very Green-friendly.

I don’t see the Greens targeting either seat, let alone winning.

Clark would be a much stronger Greens prospect if not for Wilkie.

But even with right wing minors, 3 candidate preferred in Franklin is 33/44/23 (Lib/Lab/Grn).
For comparison Griffith in 2019 was 43/32/25 before going to 34/30/36 in 2022. Can the Greens pick up a similar swing from Labor instead of the LNP without an incumbent? Absolutely – Bandt picked up a 13% swing, mostly from Labor, when he first took Melbourne in 2010. That’s with a retiring incumbent, sure, but also similar “2nd term of an underwhelming ALP government” circumstances.

Add to that the Greens only just missing out on a 2nd seat at the state level, with a new election happening any time now, and that’s good cause for Greens to really pick up the pace of campaigning in Franklin (and the rest of tasmania). But from a different perspective, there isn’t really much else to play for in Tasmania federally – as previously mentioned Clark is unwinnable and the Greens seem to have recovered from their late 2010s slump to the point where the senate seat is safe (and McKim could safely vacate). Either way, seems like a good bet.

Interesting results from Cradoc, a small town in the Huon Valley located 11km southwest of Huonville.

Federal results, 2022:
Primaries:
* Liberal: 28.68% (–5.57%)
* Labor: 23.96% (–10.12%)
* Greens: 23.23% (+2.92%)
TPP:
* Labor: 59.17% (+1.51%)
* Liberal: 40.83% (–1.51%)

Voice referendum results, 2023:
* No: 55.44%
* Yes: 44.56%

State results, 2024:
* Liberal: 38.96% (–3.81%)
* Greens: 24.35% (+1.54%)
* Labor: 18.61% (–4.61%)

I can see Cradoc being a Liberal vs Greens booth in 2025, with the Liberals winning it due to a declining Labor vote going to both the Liberals and the Greens. Does anyone know why the Greens vote is so damn high in such a small town?

Booth comparison from the 2022 federal election, the 2023 Voice referendum and the 2024 state election: https://jmp.sh/zy5G5fe1

Notably the Liberals won most booths on the state level while Labor won most booths in the federal level. A few Greens booths are scattered around the place, both in Hobart and in some small towns that must have a hippie/leftist vibe to them (most notably Cygnet).

What’s interesting though is that few of the booths recorded over 40% primaries for the winning candidate, and only a handful even got over 35%. The range was usually between 30% and 35%, but there were even a few that were lower than 30%. One booth (Southport) was won by Labor on the state level by just one vote.

I will be doing more of these soon. Next up will be Clark.

This seat had TAS’s largest election-day booth at Howrah Primary School in Howrah, with 2088 votes cast.

the ind could be a chance here. labor polled just 36% on the primary vote in a very wide field. if the ind were able to make the 2cp they could clean up the minor party and liberal preferences to win the seat

I think The Greens had a shot at this but fumbled the ball at candidate selection – they went with someone with strong party values, but without any real profile and unlikely to appeal outside of urban booths on the eastern shore. Peter George seems like the strongest contender to seriously challenge Labor dominance now.

This had passed me by. John is absolutely right. Labor trying to defend this from a very low PV. Added complication for Labor here is that Tasmanian voters are canny and know how to use their vote. All of those years of Hare-Clark trainng. Another seat where Labor must be worried. I would say Peter George could get 20% or even slightly less and still win. It is even possible if the Lib vote holds up and they get ON prefs they could make the final two with George.

There was a pretty rogue poll a while back that had the Liberal vote pretty much neck and neck with Labor in the mid 30s – which would be a pretty easy win for Labor, that same poll also had Labor comfortably retaining Lyons though…

@james bonio the greens are no shot here labors primary guarantees them into the 2CP or 2PP and the libs willl never preference the greens (in the forseeable future anyway).

@redistributed doubtful on the lib thing though he would flog them if he did. though even if he polls 10% he could still win all those minor party preferences would hopefully stack up in his favour. although he would need Lambie and the Greens though. this is defeinately a good chance for the teal though because of that already low primary vote. the libs cant win with it so i doubt labor could either.

given how this seat is divided in regards to Kingston and the City of Clarence is there some other way to get to Clarence from Kinston other then going through Hobart/Clark?

Clarence Mayor Brendan Blomeley announced he is running here as an independent.

Could get interesting. Again is there anyway fromclarence to kingsborough except through Hobart?

John
No. No way except in a boat or helicopter. Without doubt the most bizarre boundaries in Australia – and no conceivable community of interest. It is an historical relic that keeps on keeping on. And frankly should be changed – and would make for an interesting Tasmanian redistribution.

@redistribution thanks. I suppose it’s one of those “leftover” issues.

That helps my redistribution proposal. I think the best option is for over quota Lyons to transfer Derwent valley to Franklin. And then I will look at moving Clarence into Franklin or at least part. And maybe move kingsborough into Franklin. I think the issues is the sizeable Clarence population.

The other option would be to put all of Clarence in Clark and move kinsborough and parts of Hobart maybe in to Franklin but I don’t think they’ll go that radical.

the teal here is a good chance 36% primary which we can assume will drop given the anti government vote and the CoL crisis. the other thing in play here will be salmon farming. labor has decided to sit on the fence on this one so theyll lose salmon farmers to teh libs and skate environmantalists to the greens or maybe the teal id say labor will end up about 32% primary at most, though if its any lower then this i dont see how she can win tbh. not only is she up against the teal Peter George but mayor of Clarence Brendan Blomeley. obviously teh libs cant win here but if they run dead and preference the INDs labor could be in trouble d say the will preference Blomeley over George. the other wildcard here is Lambie. if the greens preference the inds (most likely the teal) i think labor will be done assuming the inds finish higher of course. Lambies prefences only broke to labor 63-37 last time.

given how state and federal boundaries are coincided how does it work if the federal boundaires are changed close to or in the middle of a state election?

John, I believe this situation happened for the 2018 state election. The new boundaries were only just gazetted in November 2017 and there wasn’t enough time for the state electoral commission to enact the changes, so they used the old boundaries for that election.

This time, there should be at least 1 year between gazetting the new boundaries (mid 2026) and the next election provided Parliament runs for a full term.

“provided Parliament runs for a full term” is far from guaranteed at this point.

I have considered making a guide on the old boundaries and then having to update it once the redistribution kicks in. But I’ll put that behind VIC and NSW on my to do list.

To be slightly more specific than Yoh An in answering John’s question: Tasmania (either the state commission or the parliament) has to make a separate decision to implement the AEC’s redistribution. It doesn’t just happen automatically. So yeah if it’s too close to a state election they wouldn’t do it.

The salmon legislation is basically an attempt by the Labor Party to avoid a total wipeout in Tasmania. They are damned if they do or damned if they don’t. There are thousands of jobs at stake – mostly in Franklin (in the Huon Valley) with much fewer in Braddon. This is ‘Labor standing up for the working man’ but Peter Dutton and the Libs might be able to do it better. The Greens will preference Peter George so that will get him up in the vote tally. What sort of chance does Brendan Blomely have? His website has hit new depths of nothing. The Liberal candidate seems to be the only poor sod to put his hand up. I can see both Greens and Libs in low teens. Who would Libs and Blomely preference – George presumably just to give Labor some of their own back. This will be a ‘must follow’ on election night. It has all come to a head precisely at the wrong time for the ALP.

@redistributed if libs and Blomely preference George he’ll win assuming he makes the count. George is a teal so he likely won’t preference anyone but his votes will come mainly from labor and the greens. With only a 36% primary it’s hard to see her winning this one. Labor could lose its last Tasmanian seat along with what I expect to be a Liberal win in Lyons.

Seems like people here want to see Labor lose and lose badly everywhere so we can have a Liberal government again. It’s really bewildering to see that people are gunning for independents to take out safe Labor seats as well given that those independents will be utterly useless in arguing a case for their community as they’re all elected on the bandwagon of outrage.

The only non-teal independent who’s contributed well to their community since elected is Dai Le who at least seems to speak and represent their community well instead of these anti-Labor candidates who seems to forget that one less Labor seat = Liberal government which will be worse for the precious environment they wanted to keep.

@Tommo9 there are also people here who want to see the Coalition lose and lose badly, and want to see independents taking their seats. It’s almost as though people who have an interest in politics may be more likely to hold strong political opinions themselves. Nevertheless, this site has a good culture of serious discussion about election results, which is much preferable to the atrocious level of discussion over at the Bludger (the only comparable Australian election site).

@North by West I agree with you. Whilst I don’t agree with everyone on here the diversity of opinions are certainly a valuable thing on this site vs Bludger.

I’ll defer to Kevin Bonham when it comes to whether a new independent candidate stands a real chance in Tasmania. I haven’t seen any attention here yet so my default assumption is that the talk on this page is much ado about nothing.

Here’s the link to Bonham’s assessment of the TAS House of Reps in this Federal Election:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/02/tasmanian-house-of-representatives-seat.html

To quote his assessment of Franklin:
“The smokie scenario getting attention here is Peter George. If George gets enough of the seat’s high Green vote to jump them (which is challenging) he might in theory pass the Liberals and we saw this movie before in Denison 2010. But the comparison seems strained. Denison was vacant with a lazy and terrible Labor campaign and while some of Franklin has obvious teal appeal, it is a bitty electorate that is hard for an indie to poll well in enough of. The Green vote here also easily withstood a teal challenge at the state election; in fact they got quite close to two state seats in Franklin. George needs to get a far higher vote than Bateman’s 5% on a similar platform to be competitive, but even 15% could be enough. That is, assuming he gets Liberal preferences, but the Liberals will come under serious pressure from the salmon and forestry industries to put Labor above him on their card, which would surely be the end of this. I also just don’t think salmon is that big an issue here and probably those most concerned about it were already not voting for the major parties. Climate 200 have thrown in $30,000; I think if they thought it was a big chance they would be throwing in much more. All this said, Franklin has recently had an unusual situation of dead fish from salmon farms washing up on beaches in the electorate and there could be higher than normal anger about the issue.”

Thanks, I didn’t actually realise that he had completed his assessment. Although that matches the gist of what I expected.

@tommo the enemy of my enemy is my friend

John, if that is true how come the Liberals have stopped blanket preference recommendations to the Greens? They still recommend preferences to Labor in contests where the alternative candidate is too left wing/progressive (i.e. Fremantle with Kate Hulett)

@yoh because the greens are worse then labor. they learned that lesson from getting Adam Bandt elected in Melbourne. They preferences Wilkie in Clark and still do so. They preferenced Labor over Hulett due to a preference swap for seats Geraldton, Mid-west, kalgoorlie and warren-blackwood over the Nats. They didnt do it for free then and wont do it for free in the Federal seat of Fremantle or anywhere else either. and labor have no seats in tasmania to trade and only 1 in WA.

@lurking labors legislation on salmo is merely an attempt to win votes. we have no idea which side of the fence labor is really on because plibersek still wont make a decision on the skate vs salmon until after the election. labor will be held hostage to the greens and independents in a minority govt and we know which side of the fence they fall on.