Fowler – Australia 2025

Running Kristina Keneally here was a massive blunder and despite running the other candidate here I think Labor is going to have to accept that they aren’t going to pick this up while Dai Le is the member here.

@ Spacfish
On the Fowler 2022 thread, a commentator mentioned that KK won the Sophie Mirabella Memorial prize for most embarrassing loss for the winning team. i think it sums it up perfectly

Spacefish
With a margin of 1.4% who knows but it is often hard to shift independents should the liberal party vote improve then her preferences could be distributed

The only risk to Dai Le is if there is a stronger Green vote due to the Muslim Community which is about 7%. The other thing excluding Muslims, it is possible that Green preferences will flow better this time to Labor with a better candidate. Also Dai Le abstained from Climate Legislation and the voice so the Green voters have greater incentive for preference discipline.

If Dai Le supports a Dutton government a backlash is possible. For this election, though, Labor is facing headwinds and she has had a term to embed herself as the member. Maybe they make a contest with the right candidate but winning appears a tough proposition.

To clarify the above, I mean that supporting a Dutton government in a hypothetical hung parliament result could bring a backlash the following election. Pre-election, she obviously won’t be stating who she supports.

Dai Le will retain. Her side got a swing at the local elections. There’s also disdain for Labor in the outer working-class suburbs and this will carry over.

I think Tu Le is a great candidate with her community links and CV but the timing isn’t good. It seems like Labor is vested here as they preselected her in October, many months ahead.

@Nimalan, if I recall, the Sophie Mirabella award was for losing a safe seat whilst on the winning team. I’d say Sophie Mirabella’s loss was worse as she was the incumbent MP and her side had a much larger nationwide swing.

Dai Le could be the beneficiary of the pro-Palestine vote as she has called for a ceasefire and spoke in support of Gazan refugees. There is also brewing anti-Labor sentiment owing to the Gaza conflict. The Greens vote was small and their voters mostly preferenced Labor in 2022.

Fowler was really an own goal by Labor because they couldn’t resolve the issue between Keneally and O’Neill for the Senate. If they really wanted Keneally in cabinet they should’ve put her in an electable position over O’Neill on the Senate ticket than parachuted to battler Fowler.

If Labor had Tu Le to run as intended in 2022 they’d hold that seat comfortably rather than scrambling to try and reclaim it this time.

I reckon Keneally should’ve run in Robertson. At least it’s much closer to home and losing in a marginal Liberal seat isn’t as embarrassing as losing in a safe Labor seat.

I think she should’ve run in Mackellar, not that she would’ve won but at least it’s in her electorate. Throwing her from affluent Scotland Island to the working-class suburbs of Cabramatta and Liverpool was always going to throw people off with the impression of ‘bureaucracy’ encroaching upon the populace.

Or, if they did the right thing and put Keneally in the Senate, then Deb O’Neill would’ve been a natural fit to run in Robertson, given she held the seat before and actually defied the trends by increasing her margin in 2010 when everywhere else went backwards for Labor.

When Chris Hayes (the former member) endorsed Tu Le, you know you should endorse her too. There’s no one better to know the electorate than a local, something that the NSW Labor committee completely ignored because they wanted appease Keneally and O’Neill simultaneously.

Or they could’ve just not ran the Premier that got voted out in a historic landslide in 2011?

I think KK is not blamed for the 2011 defeat she was just the sacrifical lamb that the powerbrokers put in place knowing she would loose in a landslide but hoping she could keep some furniture, the house was lot.

Dai Le did call for a ceasefire but she has been quiet since. Unlike the Greens she does not have the freedom to say what ever she wants if matches the Greens in the Pro-Palestine rhetoric then there will be anger amongst the Liberal party.

@Nimalan I think Dai Le has been, at best, matching Labor’s sort-of-neutral response rather than the Liberals’ hyper-partisan support for Israel or the Greens’ unabashed support for Palestine. She called for a ceasefire but then again most people did (as did most countries), so on this issue it might not give her any advantages over Labor. It might not have a huge impact on the electoral status for her anyway as Fowler is mostly Chinese or Vietnamese people compared to the likes of Werriwa, Watson, Blaxland and McMahon that are all Muslim-skewing.

The things that will play in favour of Dai Le is cost of living and infrastructure given she’s been vocal about how Labor should be listening and supporting cost of living in the electorate and building infrastructure and transport access, something that Labor hasn’t really been paying attention, perhaps out of spite for Dai Le winning in 2022 even though it was their fault that they parachuted Keneally into the seat instead of endorsing Tu Le who was already favoured heavily to win.

I think Dao Le will hold here given the CoL crisis and the middle East issues hurting labor. Labor would and should have won in 2022 but in their attempt to parachute KK into a lower house seat they screwed up big time.

@ Tommo9
Agree Dai Le has been cautious on the conflict. Fowler is less Muslim than neighboring seats, even if some Muslims in Fowler prefer Greens to her in the primary vote, its is probably not enough for her to win. Apart from calling for an earlier ceasefire there is nothing more she did. Labor also supported Gaza refugees so that is not really a point of difference. At the same time, Dai Le does not really get into culture wars she is not a cooker for example when Cumberland Council banned a book on LGBT parenting she said it was absurd unless the book was put in a toddler section. She tends to only focus on bread and butter issues.

Dai Le will retain in my eyes. The sophomore surge, combined with Labor’s unpopularity in outer suburbs should get her over the line

i wonder is there any reason Vietnamese Australians tends to heavily vote Labor instead of the Liberal Party given their anti-communism? Vietnamese Americans whereas mainly vote Republicans (especially among the first-generation refugees) evidence from the Westminster, California (within the Vietnamese heavy suburbs of Orange County) where they voted Republican except for 2012 and 2016.

Fowler is uncertain… in theory she won a safe alp seat as the liberals polled poorly and alp candidate was unpopular.
In practice I don’t know… it is often hard to unseat independents.

I would expect Dai Le to stay in this seat as long as she wants to or until the boundaries get shifted too much

@Marh I don’t know much about the statistics, but my guess is that it could be to do with the social class status of Vietnamese refugees and migrants into Australia. They often settled into lower socio-economic areas, like Inala and Darra in Brisbane.

@A A – you’ve hit the bullseye. In Australia, Vietnamese refugees and migrants have usually settled into to lower class areas, and thus are usually adapt more to the working class. Inala and Darra in Brisbane, as well as Cabramatta and surrounds in Sydney have some of the largest Vietnamese communities in Australia and are some of the Labor’s best areas in these cities.

One thing I will say that favours Labor is multicultural acceptance. Labor has usually been very strong on migrant and ethnic communities, though the Liberals have usually struggled with these areas, due to people who aren’t as accepting of these communities, mainly from the hard right.

Labor have given these sorts of voters absolutely no reason to go back to them, Fowler is Dai Le’s until she has a scandal, props up a bad minority Liberal Government or retires

The more interesting thing is if a similar independent could pop up in neighbouring seats like Werriwa, McMahon, Chifley and Parramatta. Vietnamese community not the same, but similar social classes and second and third generation Australians mixed in.

Parramatta is a marginal seat no chance of an independent either liberal or labor

Parachuting Keneally into Fowler was one of the dumbest and most short-sighted decision the ALP has made in the last 10 years. I don’t see Labor winning it back from Le. As @Mick said, she will be there until she decides to retire.

@ElectoralElliot
It didn’t make any sense out of the blocks, perhaps it was the only way to get KK to voluntarily give up her Senate seat? It ended her political career, which is a win for Labor because of the stench over Kimberley Kitching’s death and the Brittany Higgins scandal, and could still be a winner if Dai Le holds and puts a minority Labor Governmednt back in Office

Since Dai Le and Tu Le have the same surname, if one of them gets the top spot on the ballot paper, she will get some advantage. It’s not just because of donkey voters but also voters who get confused between the two. Even people in electorates with fewer migrants and more English as first language speakers get confused between LDP and Liberals as well as between DLP and Labor. I remember Ben Raue wrote about this confusion once.

Dai Le is quite established in the community through her time as a Fairfield councillor and now MP. She has the incumbency advantage at a time when Labor will cop a statewide swing. The redistribution is also adding more of Fairfield Council.

Tu Le has been putting on a strong fight (based on what I’ve seen and heard). She is heavily pregnant and attending events and doorknocking. She has way more grassroots support than KK had. At the very last, I can see her repairing Labor’s image and connection with the community following Labor’s 2022 disaster.

I thought first alp Easy win with a local candidate…this will be close.
Cannot pick the winner
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..

@votante id oubt that they will get confused. its not a racial thing but in migrant comunities people of the same heritage and the same last name are as distinguishable to them as a white candidate would be to caucasian communities.

@mick the anit govt vote and the col crisis as well as Dai Le putting in the leg work in her cmmunity should give her the edge especially with liberal preferences.

What was the Kkk factor worth

??

not sure but dai le and frank carbone have a strangelhold on fairfield council she wont lose now.

@Mick Quinlivan
**What was the Kkk factor worth**
Hard to say without knowing where Dai Le’s 2nd preferences landed.
It’s still a Labor electorate, so i’d expect Dai Le to support a Labor Minority Government

@John, Le is the third most common Vietnamese surname. I know a few people with the surname Le. It’s pronounced closer to “Lair” or “Lay” rather than Lee or the French “Le”.

The issue is that when people get a ballot paper, they might quickly number the first word that they recognise and resonate with e.g. Liberal, Labor/Labour, without reading the whole thing.

People in Liverpool and to the west of the electorate, west of Smithfield Rd, are less likely to be from a Vietnamese background.

Dai Le may have a leg up due to her Fairfield council profile. The Liverpool part was where her vote was the weakest in 2022.

@Gympie

Dai Le is a former Liberal member and candidate, and Peter Dutton seems to be keen on getting her support. I cannot see her supporting a Labor government, I actually think she would back the Liberals.

It might be best for Dai Le not to back any minority government.

Assume in minority government she will either side with the LNP if they get close to 75 or hide on the cross bench if Labor get the most seats

There was an article on the ABC the other day talking about each of the independents intentions if there was a hung parliament.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-28/crossbench-independents-minority-government-bill-negotiate/104952366
While most said that they wouldn’t enter into any formal deals of support, Le was one who said that she might formalise support “Fowler MP Dai Le says if she is re-elected under a hung parliament she would strike a deal with the party most prepared to prioritise her electorate in south-west Sydney”

Unfortunately she may have to back someone because Andrew Willie has also said he wouldn’t back anyone. And if neither party reaches 76 then there will be another election

Criticism of Oakeshott and Windsor was based on them representing non Labor seats and supporting Gillard. Fowler is a Labor seat, it’s reasonable to expect Dai Le to respect the wishes of her electorate.
Historically, Independents support Labor anyway, 2 Indies from conservative Melbourne electorates brought the Fadden Government down, Tony Crook also backed Gillard, as did Bob Katter.
Phelps, Sharkie and Julia Banks all represented non Labor electorates, they tries to bring the Morrison Government down.
All up, in my opinion it is naive to expect any of the Independents to put a Dutton Government in Office.

@Gympie the Teal electorates would be incredibly disappointed if their Teal members had decided to back a Labor government I think. They often serve economically conservative, socially progressive inner city electorates which (when push comes to shove) would pick the Liberals (as they have before the party’s move to the far right) over Labor any day.

I actually think the Coalition will form minority government due to the some, if not most of the Teals’ likely support for them if they need the seats.

@Gympie, I think you will find that Tony Crook sat as an Independant National in Canberra initially. He did not sit with the Nationals party room and Gillard did not need his vote in the House of Reps – she had cobbled together the bare majority with Oakshott, Windsor, Wilkie and one other independant whose name escapes me (or was it Adam Bandt in the lower house?). Part way through the term CRook saw how unpopular Oakshott and Windsor were and he decided perhaps he better sit with the Nationals party room after all. He then got cold feet and did not renominate as the Nationals candidate for O’Connor and left after one term.

I think the comments above miss this point-the teals and independents(as currently constituted) are such a disparate group that the likelihood of agreement between them(cf Windsor & Oakeshott supporting Labor) as to which party they will support in minority government is modest.It suggests that if there is minority government in the next parliament,the likelihood of the parliament lasting a full term are not good.

Teals independents will not want another election any time soon.
Maybe there can be deals on confidence supply only.
The cross benches would vote on programs proposals on their merits.
Will greens , pocock and other independents still hold balance of power in the senate?

Mick,
They might not,but the government will threaten them with one,if they do not co operate.

Think the cross bench will support the party with the most seats.
It would have to end something like ALP 67 LNP 70 to get a situation like in 2010 (assuming greens have 3 to back Labor)

I also think Dutton would rather stay in opposition and complain about everything than be in a minority position where he isn’t able to bully everyone else into silence

@gypmie that is dead wrong both Tony Crook and Bob Katter backed Tony Abbott and Crook even sat in the Nats party room. and those 2 inds originally backed Fadden but then changed to Curtin. Both Phels and Banks had a grudge against morrison and if phelps wanted to bring morrison down she would have. when turnbull lost Phelps could have broguth down morrison but chose to give confindence to the govt to ennsure stable govt. in 2022 Sharkie, Stegall and some others i cant remember which stated they would negotiate with Morrison first in the event of a hung parlament in line with the wishes of there electorates. Sharkie has stated something similar with Peter Dutton recently. and im pretty sure she said she would likely support whoever has the most seats. Spender also said whoever had the most seats shoul be given first crack. Monique Ryan also tried to reach out to Dutton but im pretty sure he said to go to buggery and who can blame him given her comments towards him. If the teals back a labor minority govt they will lose their seats the same way Oakshott and Windsor did. (part of the reason i want Albo to win tbh). the greens will back labor no matter what and Wilkie wont deal with anyone after he got burned last time. Then theres Katter, hes friends with Albo but i dont think his constituents will take too kindly with that and KAP have seats in QLD they have to defend from the libs.

@wombater if the liberals win curtin kooyong and goldstein i dont see how albo can make minoirty govt.

@huxley he retired from politics citing stress resulting from long-distance travel and separation from his family.

@mick yes there is now way for either major party to get a majority in the senate (labor can never get a majority given the green popularity is enough to get at least 1 member in every state at each election) thugh labor could possibly get another spot in qld thats about it. libs can probably pick up a maximum of 2 more senate spots (tas 1, act1)

@sabena the govt will not want one and the teals would call their bluff. any subsequent going back to the polls early usually hurts the govt because people hate having to vote before they have to.

@bazza agreed on the first bit.

We won’t really know until the election results but should Labor + Greens manage more seats than coalition and somehow a Labor minority government be put together (and still needing some indies) – I can see Peter Dutton just sitting back and watching it all unravel. The Albanese Government has put on a good show of inertia since the Voice and the above scenario will send them into total paralysis. Getting legislation through both houses will just be continual trench warfare. There will be collateral damage too whether it be indies or ministers just getting worn out and just walking away. The country will be sick of it too and Peter Dutton will waltz in an election sometime before 2028. It is even possible we have another election before the end of the year but hard to see a full term happening. Whether that is a DD is another story for another day.