LIB 4.2%
Incumbent MP
Nola Marino, since 2007.
Geography
South-western corner of Western Australia. Forrest covers the towns of Bunbury, Busselton and Margaret River. Forrest is made up of Augusta-Margaret River, Bunbury, Busselton, Capel, Dardanup and Harvey council areas.
Redistribution
Forrest lost the Donnybrook-Balingup council area to O’Connor. This change slightly reduced the Liberal margin from 4.3% to 4.2%.
History
Forrest was created for the 1922 election. It has been held predominantly by conservative parties, first by the Country Party before the Second World War and then the Liberal Party. It has only been won by the ALP at three elections.
John Prowse won Forrest in 1922 for the Country Party. Prowse had won the seat of Swan in 1919, before moving to the new seat in 1922. Prowse held the seat for two decades, until his defeat in 1943.
The ALP’s Nelson Lemmon won Forrest in 1943. He was re-elected in 1946, and was then appointed Minister for Works and Housing in the Chifley government, and he was responsible for the commencement of the Snowy Mountains Scheme. He lost Forrest in 1949.
The Liberal Party’s Gordon Freeth won Forrest in 1949. He was appointed to the Menzies government’s ministry in 1958, and served as a minister continuously until his defeat in 1969, when Forrest was won by the ALP’s Frank Kirwan.
Kirwan lost in 1972, going against the trend which saw the Whitlam government end 23 years of Liberal rule. He was defeated by Liberal candidate Peter Drummond. Drummond held the seat until his retirement in 1987.
Geoff Prosser won Forrest in 1987. He joined the Liberal frontbench in 1990, and was appointed as a minister in the Howard government after the 1996 election. He only lasted until 1997, when he was forced to resign due to breaches of the code of conduct. He served as a backbencher until his retirement in 2007.
Nola Marino was elected in 2007, and has been re-elected five times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Nola Marino is not running for re-election.
- Georgia Beardman (Greens)
- Sue Chapman (Independent)
- Tabitha Dowding (Labor)
- Ben Small (Liberal)
- Paul Van Der Mey (One Nation)
Assessment
Forrest is a marginal seat on paper, due to the massive swing to Labor in Western Australia in 2022. It is likely to stay in Liberal hands, but there is a prominent local teal campaign that could make things interesting.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nola Marino | Liberal | 41,006 | 43.1 | -9.4 | 43.1 |
| Bronwen English | Labor | 26,092 | 27.4 | +6.3 | 27.6 |
| Christine Terrantroy | Greens | 12,780 | 13.4 | +0.6 | 13.5 |
| Shane Mezger | One Nation | 5,020 | 5.3 | -0.7 | 5.3 |
| Tracy Aitken | Great Australian Party | 2,907 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 3.0 |
| Helen Allan | United Australia | 2,426 | 2.6 | +0.8 | 2.6 |
| Greg Stephens | Western Australia Party | 2,130 | 2.2 | +1.0 | 2.2 |
| Paul Markham | Liberal Democrats | 1,577 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.7 |
| Mailee Dunn | Federation Party | 1,152 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Informal | 5,234 | 5.2 | -0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nola Marino | Liberal | 51,625 | 54.3 | -10.3 | 54.2 |
| Bronwen English | Labor | 43,465 | 45.7 | +10.3 | 45.8 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Bunbury, Busselton and Harvey local government areas have been divided along council lines, with the remainder of the electorate split into “South” and “Central”.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 54.4% in the north to 56.6% in Busselton. Labor won 53.2% in Bunbury and 53.3% in the south.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.1% in the north to 27% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Busselton | 17.3 | 56.6 | 10,327 | 11.3 |
| Central | 11.3 | 55.6 | 9,484 | 10.4 |
| Bunbury | 13.9 | 46.8 | 8,768 | 9.6 |
| North | 9.1 | 54.4 | 7,086 | 7.8 |
| South | 27.0 | 46.7 | 4,241 | 4.7 |
| Pre-poll | 12.2 | 54.2 | 35,577 | 39.0 |
| Other votes | 13.1 | 57.6 | 15,671 | 17.2 |
Election results in Forrest at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Do we reckon Libs are in any trouble here? On first glance not really, Lib seat held with a Lib swing predicted. However the presence of a teal + retiring MP could muddy stuff maybe
I don’t think so personally, though I could be wrong. I wonder if Nola had any personal vote?
Lib retain no question teal has no hope here.
Libs will get a swing. The suburbanites of Bunbury who gave Marino a close shave will flip back rather strongly. On the other hand Sue Chapman has really been putting in work in terms of campaign infrastructure. I’m certain she’ll make the 2cp now. She’ll probably win the entire cape to cape region as those booths seems to march forever leftwards (swings to labor at the state election) and maybe do well enough in the heart of Bunbury and Busselton.
@Mostly – agreed. Labor doesn’t seem to take this seriously. Sue Chapman has put a lot of effort in but I would say the Liberals will hold with a swing to them surely.
Labor had a swing to it on the 2PP at the Our Lady of the Cape Primary in Dunsborough (Vasse), Cowaramup Primary, Augusta Community Resource Centre and the Margaret River EPP (Warren-Blackwood). I’d argue Chapman will do well in Dunsborough, Margaret River, and maybe some parts of Busselton, but Bunbury is not a tealish/independent area, as well as a lot of Busselton.
What are state figures 2025 transposed?
Guess alp win?
Mick labor couldn’t win this if Peter Dutton ran over a nun in central bunbury
For what it’s worth, I was visiting the area last week and have been getting lots of Sue Chapman ads in my social media feeds ever since.
@ john
You are correct for most nuns.
But my poor writing. Alp win if you apply 2025 state election results.
Internal polling reported in the Saturday Paper has Chapman losing by 1% on the TCP. Article says she was polled against Marino for some reason tho.
The absence of Nola Marino and the internal polling should be a cause of concern for the Liberals however I’m not writing the Liberals off yet.
I read the Saturday Paper article. The polling was for Climate 200. It paints a rosy picture for teal or community voices independents around the country. I also won’t write off the Liberals in Forrest.
Darth Vader’s comment isn’t hyperbole, it’s an understatement if anything. Surprised this very safe seat is getting any talk. A lot of this electorate is the “Mettam” heartland where Libs had their results in the ’21 State wipeout. Only way to see this ever flipping is if it gains Collie area whilst losing Harvey region and current trends even that won’t be a given any more.
I’ve only seen one corflute for Sue Chapman, but have seen her shopping a couple of times. I don’t think she has much of a large presence to shift things but still doing better than the unnamed sacrificial lamb Labor haven’t even bothered announcing.
Was Nola Marino popular/had a personal vote here? It could be interesting, however I’d say the Liberals should easily retain with a high-profile candidate and a recovery from the 2021 state election and 2022 federal wipeout.
Nats have a candidate here: Cam Parsons, who got 12.8% in Collie-Preston at the state election last month. Last time they ran in Forrest (2016) they got 5%, and I don’t see that changing much. The south-west has never been a strong area for them.
Ben Small isn’t high-profile. He’s just some guy who ended up in the senate for a couple of years from a casual vacancy, then lost from #3 on the Lib ticket.
The only time I can remember this seat being vaguely interesting was 2007, when Noel Brunning (newsreader for GWN) ran as an independent, trying to follow Peter Andren in Calare. He got 11% and went back to being a newsreader.