Forde – Australia 2025

2022 candidate Rowan Holzberger is running again for Labor

Interesting how Labor went on a spree of candidate announcements last week in seats like Forde, Ryan, Brisbane and Dickson. I do think Bonner is more winnable but there’s no candidate.

I’m more surprised that they didn’t announce a Flynn candidate, given that Albo said he was in Queensland to talk about the Coalition’s nuclear plans & Flynn being a marginal seat with a proposed plant to be placed within it, but I guess it ultimately just comes down to whether or not they’ve been able to actually find a candidate yet.

I think the seats they have chosen candidates for in Queensland so far are largely where their focus will be here and don’t really surprise me. No candidate in Bonner yet is odd given Forde has one but it’s easier and quicker to figure out when you’re just running the previous candidate again. While Dutton is the LNP leader (and Albanese is Labor leader, actually) I don’t think Flynn and Longman for example are winnable for Labor. And Ali France running again in Dickson is just a simple and quick solution for a seat I’m sure they’d be ecstatic to win but nonetheless doubt their chances there.

Even with Dutton as LNP leader I think Labor should really put a concerted effort into snagging a Brisbane seat or two on top of a good run at Leichardt given they’re facing likely losses in WA and have seats such as Lyons, Lingiari, Gilmore and Paterson in the other states to worry about as well. The whole “write QLD off” idea a lot of people have is an incredibly grave mistake and will come back to bite them over and over.

@ Laine
Labor will play defense in Blair and Leichardt is best chance of a gain, i think they will only try one at best maybe Brisbane, Bonner or Forde.

They aren’t winning Forde.

LNP hold, with a reasonable swing to the LNP.

Forde could be a Labor gain because of the rapid population growth in Park Ridge and Logan Reserve. A lot of young families moving into that area.

There might be a tougher vetting process for Labor candidates elsewhere where there are lower margins but still a tough hill to climb e.g. Flynn, Bonner. Labor might have decided to write off Forde and so they preselected the guy as before.

Seems either Labor underperformed in the Logan Parts of Forde or Labor overperformed in the Logan Parts of the neighboring Rankin or a maybe a little bit of both as the communities within the Rankin-Forde border has on average a roughly 10% difference on the TPP .

Negligible swing here. Don’t see it swinging much either way. LNP are not making this a 8-10% margin, NP, this is not 2019.

@Daniel T I wasn’t thinking 8-10% I was thinking maybe a 3-4% swing (57-58% margin). Around average or a little bit over average compared to the rest of the state/country.

The Redbridge MRP poll had this division move closer to Labor into “Too Close to Call”. One of the only in the country trending towards Labor rather than away.

I imagine that says something about the politics of the residents in the new housing estates, both in the northern Gold Coast and in the southwest of Logan. Does that have implications for Logan and Coomera at the upcoming state election?

@SEQ Observer can you link this poll please?

Also I still think this’ll be an LNP seat, with a swing of about 2-3% to the LNP.

I dont personally think Forde will fall in 2025 i think high interest rates will have an impact in a mortgage belt seat like this. However, longer term i think Labor will struggle to form government without this. Even if Higgins was retained, i dont see it being a long term prospect nor seats like Macnamara or Tangney. If Labor is unable to pick up coal seats in Central QLD and riverside Brisbane seats than Suburban Brisbane is where they need to look for gains to offset other loses.

@SEQ that report is vastly inaccurate it doesnt take into account any other opinion poll which is showing a swing away from labor. its not like they conducted a sample of every seat so i wouldnt read much into that report

@NP it wasnt an opinion poll just a report they made across the whole country i would see it as accurate

Seems either Labor underperformed in the Logan Parts of Forde or Labor overperformed in the Logan Parts of the neighboring Rankin or a maybe a little bit of both as the communities within the Rankin-Forde border has on average a roughly 10% difference on the TPP .

I’m rebridge simply uses a nationwide poll and demographic modwllong to predict the outcome of seats which is vastly inaccurate. Though I do believe poll bludger avg of giving the coalition 69 and labor 68 with the greens on 3 and others on 10 is in line with what I’ve been stating will be the outcome. I think baaed on these nukbers labor will form govt with the lefr wing teals and rhe greens as I dont believe the coalition can get the numbers without a minimumof 71 seats

@Marh there is also a demographic divide. This is the whiter seat while Rankin is the more multicultural seat. This does include some housing estates but also some working-class suburbs in Logan but Rankin is almost solidly working-class.

@john.. I posted re this on Whitlam page. To go from a Global figure to a specific seat call is not possible this degree of precision does nor exist

I got my hands on the poll. @Nether Portal, Kos posted it on his X yesterday.

The most interesting part was that it doesn’t quite look like a trend towards Labor in Forde per se, but the continuation of high primary votes directed away from the two major parties, which has made the race too uncertain.

Wright was similar but with a much higher first-preference vote for the LNP. But with Labor starting from under 20%. This puts Wright into non-classic territory again (like 2019). If there is any notable swing to the Greens in the Hinterland or in the new housing estates, the Greens could leapfrog Labor, especially if they attract a lot of preference from a crowded micro-party and independents field. Unlikely though because these will probably be right wing micro-parties. And ONP might have a lot of runway to start with a high enough first-preference vote.

Wide Bay was another that looked ripe for a non-classic 2CP outcome but I imagine that its non-classic votes would split between a Sandy Bolton-style, progressive, Noosa community independent and a right-wing micro party candidate (popular in Gympie and Maryborough). And consequently, neither snowballing enough to leapfrog either of the major parties.

@SEQ Observer thanks, I’ll check it out.

To @Nicholas point regarding the state implications, particularly for Logan and Coomera at the upcoming state election. I’m not sure, especially after drilling into the primary vote expectation of the MRP report. Of course, firstly the usual disclaimers about Federal and State being two different things. Disclaimer aside, it’s probably comforting for Labor’s incumbents in Macalister and Logan. But still doubtful regarding any swing towards Labor in Coomera and Theodore.

Regardless, some more applicable Redbridge state-polling was released by 9 News Queensland yesterday evening that painted a similar picture to the MRP and suggested that QLD Labor was beginning to recover in polling. Policies like 50c fares was suggested as factor aiding their recovery.

I would also say that Gold Coast Labor people have been really disciplined and have not broken kayfabe once in their purported high hopes in Coomera and Theodore all the way from 2020 and right through to all of this terrible polling. Maybe they’ve got a better picture at the division level to stoke this confidence. I’m personally skeptical.

It’s also obvious that policies like 50c fares are specifically targeted at divisions like Macalister, Theodore, Coomera, Gaven, etc. But I’m again skeptical about Labor’s expected swing on the Gold Coast.