Flynn – Australia 2025

This seat is usually marginal but not winnable for Labor, like Dickson is. The strong Labor vote in Gladstone and Gracemere (south of Rockhampton) is outweighed by the LNP vote elsewhere. Labor could’ve won Flynn in 2016, like they won Herbert. The swing to Labor in 2022 was a rebound from the electoral disaster in Queensland in 2019. It was also a vacant seat.

The 2PP swing to the LNP in 2019 was mainly driven by Labor voters who voted One Nation or UAP and then preferenced LNP ahead of Labor. It’s a bit like how Labor suffered 2PP swings in 2022 in the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne.

The combined 19% primary vote for ON and UAP is interesting. I sense they’re losing steam despite capitalising on the pandemic-related anger. Their retraction in 2025 might just benefit the LNP. Labor could have a shot at this but I think Leichhardt is a lower hanging fruit if Warren Entsch retires.

Agree Votante, this is also a demographic that the right-wing of the Libs are increasingly trying to appeal to at the expense of the affluent base, this is a more white working class seat so i think Dutton will do reasonably well here. For Labor to win here they also need to do well in Emerald, better in Blackwater and having a stronger result in Gracemere. I do believe if Labor had a more conservative leader such as Jim Chalmers someday they may become more competitive again.

Since 2007, from what I can see, Federal Labor hasn’t managed to win a seat off the National party. The last time they won seats of the Nats was in 2007 when they won Flynn, Page and Dawson. I’m curious if/when Labor will next win a seat off the Nats, and where. Flynn seems to be the closest by margin on paper, but I think Labor’s vote here is inflated due to running high-profile Gladstone mayor Matt Burnett in 2022 and retirement of Ken O’Dowd – Labor’s House vote here outperformed their Senate vote by around 7.5 points, substantially more than neighbouring seats where their House vote was only 1-2 points higher. I don’t really see Labor having much chance here in 2025, especially if Matt Burnett doesn’t run again, and given the likely sophomore surge and Dutton home-state effect.

I live in Flynn and I don’t think Labor can win this anytime soon. The only chance they have is someone from rural Queensland who focuses on economic issues rather than social ones, since i believe that’s the only demographic they’d be able to appeal to. Someone good I believe to run is Bronwyn Dendle – manager of HomeToBilo and ran in the Callide by-election (to little success since there was no point campaigning for it). The Biloela family are pretty popular here in Biloela despite the conservatism that surrounds the rural areas here. Plus, Dendle is a well known local with the most established profile in Banana, atleast.

Is this the lowest primary vote for a winning Coalition candidate in 2025. It will be interesting to know how low the Coalition primary can be for the L/NP to win a seat (excluding cases were both Nats and Libs run a candidate each)? In Higgins Labor only won 28% primary but won due to a strong preference flow from the Greens. I believe the lowest was in 1990 when Labor won Richmond with only 26% of the vote. If anyone knows that will be much appreciated.

*Winning candidate in 2022 i mean

Nimalan
In 1990 in Cunningham, the Democrats got 48% 2pp against Labor from a 13% primary vote. Close to winning from a very low primary.

Thanks Redistributed, much appreciated very good example. Wondering if anyone knows the lowest for the Coalition.

I’d be surprised if Labor won any seats off the coalition for a while federally. In qld the last time they did well was when Rudd swept to power as the local qld boy and let’s face it albo isn’t Rudd not only did he fail to win Ryan and Brisbane because people would rather have the greens then Labor but he lost a seat to the seats in griffith. I doubt even charmers could help as he’s no rudd

Callide was one of the sites for a future nuclear power plant proposed by the Coalition. LNP have held Flynn for much of recent history despite how marginal it is. Wonder if there will be an embrace or revolt of these plans from the constituents of Flynn.

Likely an embrace. Might be different in the other sites though.

Margin on primary votes is almost the same as the 2pp.. so preferences were almost neutral

@ NP
No rush at all, I will just get it ready for you whenever you want to calculate it.
Flynn contains
1. 100% of Gladstone
2. 20% of Rockhampton
3. 36% of Burnett
4. 73% of Callide
5. 68% of Gregory
6. 18% of Mirani
Will post the booths shortly,

Booths in Flynn
1. Agnes Water
2. Alton Downs
3. Baffle Creek
4. Bajool
5. Banana
6. Baralaba
7. Beneraby
8. Biggenden
9. Bileeola
10. Blackwater
11. Bluff
12. Bouldercombe
13. Boyne Island
14. Boyne Valley
15. Bullyard
16. Bundaberg external booths (Bundaberg is actually in Hinkler)
17. Calliope
18. Capella
19. Clinton North
20. Clinton South
21. Duaringa
22. Eidsvold
23. Emerald
24. Emerald North
25. Emerald South
26. Gayndah
27. Gin Gin
28. Gladstone Central
29. Gooburrum
30. Gracemere
31. Gracemere Soith
32. Jambin
33. Kin Kora
34. Miriam Vale
35. Mondure
36. Monto
37. Moore Park Beach
38. Mount Larcom
39. Mount Morgan
40. Mount Perry
41. Moura
42. Mulgildie
43. Mundubbera
44. Proston
45. Rollestone
46. Rosedale
47. Rubyvale
49 Sharon
50. Gladstone
51. South Kolan
52. Springsure
53. Stanwell
54. Tannum Sands
55. Taroom
56. Thangool
57. Theodore
58. Tierii
59. Wallavale
60. West Gladstone
61. West Gladstone South
62. Wondai
63. Woorabinda
64. Wowan
64. Yanduran
65. Yawun

@GPPS – I think you’re right. They’ve defeated CLP in Solomon and LNP in Herbert (both in 2016) but I think those MPs sat in the Liberal party room. They also won regional(ish) seats McEwen in 2010, Eden Monaro in 2016, Gilmore in 2019 but those were Liberal held (same with Dobell 2016 and Robertson 2022 if you count the Central Coast as regional).

Labor only have a handful of regional seats they can rely on. There’s enough that they could put up a credible argument they’re not just a city party, but hard to see where they’ll pick up new ones.

@BNJ Coalition MPs from Herbert and Solomon are Liberals. But while they do have regional seats they don’t have rural seats, seats where agriculture is a primary industry.

@Nimalan I will calculate this now and Capricornia as well.

State level TPP/TCP here (2024):

* LNP: 51.2%
* Labor/KAP: 48.8%

Labor did 5.0% better here on the state level in 2024 than on the federal level in 2022. Despite this, Labor only won Gladstone plus Woorabinda (by a few votes), while KAP won some booths in Mirani including Mount Morgan and the Mount Morgan EVC.

Note that the 48.8% is a combination of the KAP TCP in the Mirani booths and the Labor TPP everywhere else.

Whoops that should say 2.6% better.