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For the third election in a row, there’ll be a teal or teal-like independent. You might recall in 2019, Julia Banks was the Member for Chisholm but ran here as a proto-teal independent after quitting the Liberals.
The redistribution made Flinders a bit more teal-friendly with the addition of Mt Eliza. A teal was quite close to winning Mornington at the 2022 state election with postals and prepolls strongly favouring the Liberal. The eastern shores of the Western Port (Flinders to Somers) are also somewhat teal.
Despite all this, I’m predicting a Liberal retain. The Liberal vote is quite strong across the electorate.
Liberal hold with a swing towards them.