Fenner – Australia 2025

Labor have re-preselected sitting MP Andrew Leigh for the next election.

That’s no surprise.

This seat had the ACT’s largest election-day booth at Amaroo School, with 2637 votes cast.

https://canberraliberals.org.au/team/bola-olatunbosun/

I saw the first campaign staff out at the EPIC Farmers Markets this morning – 2 for the ALP and 2 for Senator Pocock.

I am surprised that there is not yet a presence in the Gungahlin Main Street, but I suspect that’s a timing thing. Beautiful weather today – perhaps the last weekend we can wear T-shirt and shorts in Canberra until November- and maybe many people are down at the coast too.

Or it could just be that the campaigns have figured out that nobody wants to engage with politics until after Easter.

@Ryoma surprised you haven’t run into them at Gungahlin Marketplace yet. Have bumped into campaigners on 4 of my 5 last visits. Libs only once, Labor only once, Labor and Pocock once, and then another time all 3! Must just be my luck

@NorthsideOfTheLake, I am delighted to be lucky in that regard! 😂 Having said that, I have seen a lot of ads on TV (ALP Mediscare ads, and the odd bit of Trumpet stuff too.

But the main thing (I kid you not) was 22 ALP ads showing Albo talking about the same topic in the space of four hours.

I yelled at the screen to leave me alone until my wife said that they couldn’t hear me and I would be well advised to go for a walk 😂.

All jokes aside, it makes me wonder what their polling says in this seat. It is difficult to find bulk-billing doctors, but that’s not a major concern to me personally.

On the flip side, I am wondering why I don’t see any online advertising from any other parties. If there’s literally no extra marginal cost to showing the same ad in Fenner as there would be in Eden-Monaro, then why wouldn’t you show it all over the place? After all, the bottom seems to have completely fallen out of the TV advertising market here – we get more ads for small businesses in Wagga, Wollongong, Orange and Bathurst than anything within 90 minutes of Fenner.

So maybe:

1) I am not watching the TV shows with big audiences and at the right times (probably true).

2) The Libs just don’t have the money for TV ads, or figure it’s a waste of time either broadly, or in the ACT.

3) The social media firms can in fact pinpoint where the social media ads go to (including who to) and know that I will yell at my screen if they annoy me too much.

4) Or alternatively to point 3, they have little idea of what I like and are just scattercasting on the basis of broader research.

It could also be that all of the parties know that drowning me in political content is counterproductive to their aims.

The libs simply aren’t targeting this swat. They aren’t gonna waste money on this eat that they won’t win when they can target more marginal seats

John, I think you’re right. Having said that, it may be that they were keeping their powder dry, as I have seen three Liberal ads on TV tonight.

This seat has mortgage belt areas so Gunghalin may swing more than rest of ACT. Same with Tuggerong (Bean) which is not mortgage belt these days was in the 1970s but more outer suburban feel.

I’m a bit surprised to know about Liberal ads/canvassers. There’s no Liberal seat on the line in the ACT.

The libs want the senate spot back that’s what they’re targeting g

Votante, I think that the TV ads were generic national ones. There was no mention of any specific seats or candidates in them.

As for the Liberal volunteers, well, I guess they need to wave the flag to some degree, don’t they? Firstly to feel that they have contributed in some small way, and to give their supporters some hope. And secondly because I would imagine (and this is true of all campaigns, I think) that not turning up when your party needs you would not go down at all well with the other members.

Having done that sort of work myself when younger, I have respect for anyone willing to stand up for their beliefs. And it was often fairly social as well, especially if it was quite voter-wise. I have made acquaintances across the political spectrum as a result 🙂

Roma is correct it is a pleasant day on great majority of booths. The volunteers generally get on with each other.

My guess is that national Liberal ads broadcasting in the ACT are mostly for the benefit of people across the border in Eden-Monaro.

I think Leigh will crack 50% primary vote for the first time. The contempt for Canberra from the Liberals has been worse than usual. Small chance of a Labor vs Greens 2PP, and there was a chance of a Palestine driven surge in the Greens vote in Gungahlin, but the Greens are looking like a spent force in the ACT.

Ryoma – makes sense now. They do want to appear as if they are putting up a fight.

Blue Not John, your reasoning for a Labor swing is plausible. What might help the Liberal primary vote is the disapperance of UAP, ON and LBT splitting the right-wing vote. There is just Family First this election.

I’m amazed. I am meeting friends in Gungahlin’s Main Street, and there is zero campaigning going on here from anyone. I wonder if it’s because they have tried it before, and have just realised that it simply annoys 90% of the crowd, or whether they are doing it at other, smaller shopping centres around the place. Or if none of them can find the volunteers on a long weekend?
Or that everyone local has deliberately messaged each other to advise that it’s safe to come here because there is no political presence? Or finally that the vast majority have already voted?

Anyone from the local area got any idea which of these ideas (if any) might hold true?