ALP 6.1%
Incumbent MP
Kristy McBain, since 2020.
Geography
South-Eastern NSW. Eden-Monaro covers parts of south-eastern New South Wales surrounding the ACT, along the south coast and in the Snowy Mountains. Major centres include Bega, Goulburn, Queanbeyan and Cooma.
Redistribution
Eden-Monaro expanded to the north, taking in the Goulburn Mulwaree council area from Hume and losing the Snowy Valleys and Yass Valley council areas to Riverina. Eden-Monaro also picked up a small area around Tuross Head from Gilmore. These changes cut the Labor margin from 8.2% to 6.1%.
History
Eden-Monaro is an original federation seat, and because of its position in the corner of the state, it has always covered mostly the same area. The seat was a safe conservative seat for the first few decades, but it has been a marginal seat since the Second World War, and was considered a ‘bellwether seat’ from 1972 until 2016, having always been won by the party of government for the last four decades until it swung to Labor in 2016.
The seat was first won by Austin Chapman of the Protectionist Party in 1901. Chapman held the seat until 1926, during which time he served as a Minister in Alfred Deakin’s governments. He later returned to the ministry under Stanley Bruce from 1923 to 1924. Chapman died in 1926, and John Perkins won the seat in a by-election.
Perkins was defeated by John Cusack (ALP) in 1929, but won it back for the United Australia Party in 1931. Perkins served in a number of ministerial roles under Joe Lyons, and was defeated in 1943 by Allan Fraser of the ALP.
Fraser served in the seat for over twenty years, including a period as a senior Labor member in opposition. Fraser was defeated by Dugald Munro in the 1966 landslide but regained the seat in 1969. He retired from Eden-Monaro in 1972.
Bob Whan (ALP) held the seat from 1972 to 1975, which was the beginning of Eden-Monaro’s period as a bellwether seat. Whan was defeated in 1975 by Murray Sainsbury (LIB). Jim Snow (ALP) defeated Sainsbury in 1983, and he was defeated by Gary Nairn (LIB) in 1996.
Nairn became a Parliamentary Secretary in the final term of the Howard government and then served as Special Minister of State. Despite the seat being held by a government MP for so long, Nairn was the first member for Eden-Monaro to be a minister since John Perkins in the 1930s.
Nairn was defeated in 2007 by Mike Kelly (ALP), a former senior lawyer with the Australian Army.
Kelly was re-elected in 2010 but lost in 2013 to Liberal candidate Peter Hendy. Kelly returned to win the seat back in 2016, and was elected to a fourth term in 2019.
Kelly resigned his seat in early 2020 for health reasons. The subsequent by-election was narrowly won by Labor’s candidate Kristy McBain. McBain was re-elected in 2022.
- Emma Goward (Greens)
- Kristy McBain (Labor)
- Jo van der Plaat (Liberal)
Assessment
Eden-Monaro used to be Australia’s most famous marginal seat, but has become much stronger for the ALP. The redistribution has weakened Labor’s position but they are strong favourites to win here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kristy McBain | Labor | 43,215 | 42.6 | +3.4 | 38.5 |
| Jerry Nockles | Liberal | 33,520 | 33.0 | -4.0 | 34.4 |
| Vivian Harris | Greens | 9,376 | 9.2 | +0.5 | 8.6 |
| Boyd Shannon | One Nation | 4,351 | 4.3 | +4.3 | 4.4 |
| Independent | 4.2 | ||||
| Darren Garnon | United Australia | 2,566 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 2.6 |
| Maxwell Holmes | Liberal Democrats | 2,625 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 2.0 |
| James Holgate | Sustainable Australia | 2,260 | 2.2 | +2.2 | 1.7 |
| Andrew Thaler | Independent | 2,044 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.6 |
| Others | 0.7 | ||||
| Toni McLennan | Informed Medical Options | 909 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.7 |
| Greg Butler | Democrats | 651 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.5 |
| Informal | 7,083 | 6.5 | -0.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kristy McBain | Labor | 59,083 | 58.2 | +7.4 | 56.1 |
| Jerry Nockles | Liberal | 42,434 | 41.8 | -7.4 | 43.9 |
Booths in Eden-Monaro have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Queanbyean urban area have been grouped together, and the rest has been split between:
- East – Bega Valley and Eurobodalla council areas
- North – Queanbeyan-Palerang and Goulburn-Mulwaree council areas
- South-West – Snowy Monaro council area
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 53.9% in the north to 63.7% in Queanbeyan.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 7.1 | 53.9 | 12,194 | 11.9 |
| East | 11.5 | 62.0 | 11,752 | 11.5 |
| Queanbeyan | 11.1 | 63.7 | 11,519 | 11.2 |
| South-West | 9.4 | 54.0 | 4,050 | 4.0 |
| Pre-poll | 7.5 | 54.4 | 49,177 | 48.0 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 53.3 | 13,811 | 13.5 |
Election results in Eden-Monaro at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Now that the margin has been cut down I could see this falling especially with the polling in the neighbouring electorate with 6%+ swing against the government. I would at the moment Labor hold but, if things keep getting worse for the government and their prospects don’t improve then Liberal gain.
I’m not sure what path any candidate except McBain has to re-election. The recent inclusion of Goulburn has only strengthened her possession of the Canberra-satellite zones, which tend to vote Labor. The loss of the Tumut-Yass region also strengthens the Labor vote.
Given the lack of a big-name Liberal candidate (at this stage), it is hard to see any candidate really taking it to McBain. She is fairly popular amongst the general public of the region, and inoffensive to the more progressive cloisters of the south coast. I don’t think there’s any real chance of preference tomfoolery from the left or the right on this one, either. I would suggest she’s on track for a minor negative swing, but nothing near the required amount to topple her.
My only question is whether the recent uptick in alt-right candidates in the local council races indicates a shift towards third-party tickets, such as the SFF, SA, or UAP/ON. This could theoretically make for a Lib win on a lower primary vote.
I’d also anticipate the Greens vote bucking the trend and staying put at around 9.5%. Lots of their big campaign names have decided not to stand for preselection, and their power base on the south coast is increasingly distant from the northern end of the electorate, both geographically and socially.
@Tim I agree with you overall that Eden-Monaro should be a Labor retain but I’m not sure if Goulburn will be any help to McBain in the electorate. Last time I checked Goulburn voted Liberal in 2022 even when there was a general swing to Labor everywhere.
Funnily enough Goulburn is where Angus Taylor lives, and now that it is in a new electorate with Hume contracting to Camden and surrounds I wonder if he will move closer to Sydney to be in the electorate or stay put.
likely labor retain but on reduced margin. likely coalition gain 2028.
Already a lot of advertising for the Liberal candidate in the electorate (at least in Queanbeyan and the Snowy Mountains). Clearly a “target seat”.
I would think McBain’s base that built her huge margin last time (Far south coast and greater Canberra) is still very solid and may be enough for her to be safe. Goulburn still has a strong Canberra influence and seems like 50/50 territory that rewards incumbents (i.e. will be true 50/50 at this election).
@Blue Not John the Liberal posters in Queanbeyan have been up for at least a month now so the Liberals clearly think they can win. I think Labor will narrowly retain this year but too early to predict in 2028
Goulburn is like the areas round Tumut moved out of the electorate. Was in Hume which Labor could not win. Now there will be a serious campaign in Goulburn this new area will obviously be targeted by Labor. Possible even a pro alp swing
Probably agree Mick, the state seat of Goulburn is surprisingly marginal for the Liberal Party, even with a fairly strong incumbent (Wendy Tuckerman, who I believe served as a Minister under the previous Coalition government). This is despite Labor running fairly average candidates against her, initially former Senator Ursula Stevens in 2015 and 2019 then agribusiness consultant Michael Pilbrow in the recent election (2023).
Ursula Stephens was a good candidate
If duttons making majority. He’s definitely getting this. Eden Monaro to return to a bellwether seat in my opinion. Mike Kelly if what threw that out in my opinion
Last time Labor were helped by Scott Morrisons not holding the hose in the Black Summer bushfires. This was a seat badly sffected. Enough buffer and Labor campaigning in Goulburn will see Labor hold on. A chance if things go very pear shaped for Labor but only a chance.
Labor hold, but if the bushfires were such a big deal for this seat why was the 2020 by-election right in its aftermath so close?
Until Mike Kelly came back in 2016 this was the bellwether that stood for 40years. The next few elections was a vote against the govt. the by election restored the balance. Libs will do well but prolly just not enough to get over the line.
@Maxim, if I had to take a guess, the by-election was in the middle of 2020 and the pandemic response saw the PM at the time (Scomo) and premiers take up a lot of air time and attention and their popularity levels went upwards. People entrusted government more. By winter, people were more concerned and distraught by COVID than by bushfires.
YouGov MRP has the Liberals winning here 52-48, which would represent an 8% swing. I think that’s most unlikely, kind of makes me question the poll and model.
Individual seat polling does sometimes get it wrong. Don’t write the libs off though. If it’s right zdutton has the keys to the lodge
The plans to cut APS jobs and policy to force public servants to return to the office full time will have an impact here, especially for the young APS families priced out of the ACT. Canberra based CPSU activists looking to stop Dutton will put their efforts here.
That’s of course just one part of a very diverse electorate but with Goulburn quite close to 50/50 with any kind of decent campaign, and McBain’s base in the Bega Valley, it’s hard to see where the Liberals will get the swing they need from.
i think n goulburn will imporve for libs remember that was the swing towards labor in a good election plus the fact people sort of hated angus taylor in the regional areas
This seat has the most APS employees outside the ACT. The axing of WFH will have a greater impact since they live further away from Canberra’s offices. It’ll disproportionately affect APS workers who are low-income or are from low-income households and have been priced out of Canberra’s property market.
Goulburn’s result was an outlier last election as there was a Goulburn-based independent running in Hume and this would’ve dented the Liberal result.