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Now that the margin has been cut down I could see this falling especially with the polling in the neighbouring electorate with 6%+ swing against the government. I would at the moment Labor hold but, if things keep getting worse for the government and their prospects don’t improve then Liberal gain.
I’m not sure what path any candidate except McBain has to re-election. The recent inclusion of Goulburn has only strengthened her possession of the Canberra-satellite zones, which tend to vote Labor. The loss of the Tumut-Yass region also strengthens the Labor vote.
Given the lack of a big-name Liberal candidate (at this stage), it is hard to see any candidate really taking it to McBain. She is fairly popular amongst the general public of the region, and inoffensive to the more progressive cloisters of the south coast. I don’t think there’s any real chance of preference tomfoolery from the left or the right on this one, either. I would suggest she’s on track for a minor negative swing, but nothing near the required amount to topple her.
My only question is whether the recent uptick in alt-right candidates in the local council races indicates a shift towards third-party tickets, such as the SFF, SA, or UAP/ON. This could theoretically make for a Lib win on a lower primary vote.
I’d also anticipate the Greens vote bucking the trend and staying put at around 9.5%. Lots of their big campaign names have decided not to stand for preselection, and their power base on the south coast is increasingly distant from the northern end of the electorate, both geographically and socially.
@Tim I agree with you overall that Eden-Monaro should be a Labor retain but I’m not sure if Goulburn will be any help to McBain in the electorate. Last time I checked Goulburn voted Liberal in 2022 even when there was a general swing to Labor everywhere.
Funnily enough Goulburn is where Angus Taylor lives, and now that it is in a new electorate with Hume contracting to Camden and surrounds I wonder if he will move closer to Sydney to be in the electorate or stay put.
likely labor retain but on reduced margin. likely coalition gain 2028.
Already a lot of advertising for the Liberal candidate in the electorate (at least in Queanbeyan and the Snowy Mountains). Clearly a “target seat”.
I would think McBain’s base that built her huge margin last time (Far south coast and greater Canberra) is still very solid and may be enough for her to be safe. Goulburn still has a strong Canberra influence and seems like 50/50 territory that rewards incumbents (i.e. will be true 50/50 at this election).
@Blue Not John the Liberal posters in Queanbeyan have been up for at least a month now so the Liberals clearly think they can win. I think Labor will narrowly retain this year but too early to predict in 2028
Goulburn is like the areas round Tumut moved out of the electorate. Was in Hume which Labor could not win. Now there will be a serious campaign in Goulburn this new area will obviously be targeted by Labor. Possible even a pro alp swing
Probably agree Mick, the state seat of Goulburn is surprisingly marginal for the Liberal Party, even with a fairly strong incumbent (Wendy Tuckerman, who I believe served as a Minister under the previous Coalition government). This is despite Labor running fairly average candidates against her, initially former Senator Ursula Stevens in 2015 and 2019 then agribusiness consultant Michael Pilbrow in the recent election (2023).
Ursula Stephens was a good candidate