LNP 1.7%
Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.
Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.
History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.
Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.
Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.
Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since.
Peter Dutton has held his seat ever since. He served as a junior minister in the final term of the Howard government and as a senior minister in the Coalition government from 2013 until 2022. After the Coalition’s defeat at the 2022 election, he was elected as leader of the opposition.
- Vinnie Batten (Greens)
- Peter Dutton (Liberal National)
- Ali France (Labor)
- Suniti Hewett (Family First)
- Ellie Smith (Independent)
Assessment
Dickson is quite a marginal seat and it is worth watching. Labor did quite poorly in Queensland in 2022 compared to other states. If they benefit from incumbency they could pick up a substantial amount of ground in Queensland.
It’s also worth noting that Dutton has increased his profile now as leader of his party, which will probably improve his position in his local seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 41,657 | 42.1 | -3.9 |
| Ali France | Labor | 31,396 | 31.7 | +0.4 |
| Vinnie Batten | Greens | 12,871 | 13.0 | +3.0 |
| Tamera Gibson | One Nation | 5,312 | 5.4 | +0.2 |
| Alina Karen Ward | United Australia | 2,717 | 2.7 | +0.5 |
| Alan Buchbach | Independent | 2,222 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Thor Prohaska | Independent | 1,618 | 1.6 | -0.7 |
| Lloyd Russell | Liberal Democrats | 1,236 | 1.2 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 3,996 | 3.9 | -0.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 51,196 | 51.7 | -2.9 |
| Ali France | Labor | 47,833 | 48.3 | +2.9 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-east (51.1%) and the west (54.7%), as well as on the pre-poll and other votes. Labor won 52.5% in the north-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.2% in the north-east to 18% in the west, but just 11.7% on the pre-poll.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 13.2 | 47.5 | 16,958 | 17.1 |
| South-East | 15.8 | 51.1 | 14,310 | 14.5 |
| West | 18.0 | 54.7 | 4,621 | 4.7 |
| Pre-poll | 11.7 | 52.3 | 38,111 | 38.5 |
| Other votes | 12.4 | 53.4 | 25,029 | 25.3 |
Election results in Dickson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Pete seems to be making a few misteps lately – doubt it will turn of the voters of Dickson though
If 1682 voters had preferenced Dutton below Ali France last time, she’d be the Member for Dickson. https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-252.htm
My opinion, the Caravan Terrorism Plot hoax is difficult to get my head around, but if it can be amplified into Dutton weaponising antisemitism for political purposes, he’s gone.
I don’t think it can Gympie – mostly because there were still multiple attacks on Jewish businesses/people, and Albo and Minns both said pretty much the exact same thing. It would be a bigger issue if Dreyfus’s ‘weaponizing anti-Semitism’ line was because he was tipped off about the result of the investigation.
The fundraiser thing is more of a problem for Dutton. Not so much turning up to the fundraiser itself but the lack of judgement – surely someone said this was a bad look if it came out (which it had to).
And the reason you can’t get your head around the hoax is that it is bonkers. Someone organised a series of increasingly serious attacks in Jewish areas so at some stage he could call in a fake terror plot so he could get a reduced sentence for something (We don’t who it is or what he was found guilty of).
It may well be true, but seems overly convoluted and doesn’t get avoid that we still had a bunch of anti semetic attacks.
@Mostly Labor Voter:
Sure, but didn’t the antisemitic attacks all have the same origin, viz the bikie leader now on remand paying a crew of young dopes huge sums for work they weren’t competent at?
Sounds a little like he was the cutout that ended up being the patsy?
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The issue remains that Dutton made it out to be something it wasn’t.
If Minns did too, that just means Minns hasn’t got a political future either, rather than Dutts being in the clear because Minns went overboard too, imo.
I don’t think all of the anti Semitic attacks are part of this are they? I haven’t seen the Elsternwick fire bombing being included for example. And the caravan did have the explosives etc.
I don’t necessarily think Dutton (or Minns or Albo) did anything wrong over this, but I think Labor are worried about Burke, Bowen and Khalil and aren’t worried about Burns so are trying to push that we don’t have a problem with anti Semitism (which I actually think we don’t) and Dutton is weaponizing such incidents as there are.
Dutton called out Albo for being soft of terrorism, not letting the public know about it and causing division – all over a hoax
But I guess voters of Dickson should know that is what Pete likes and continue to vote him back in
“so are trying to push that we don’t have a problem with anti Semitism (which I actually think we don’t)”
MLV – Trying telling that to a Jewish Australian – I don’t think you will get a good reception. They are a community on edge.
Yeah, I thought about that after I posted Redistributed. It wasn’t as clear as I should have been.
I certainly do not downplay the fear that this has caused the Jewish community, nor the reality of what are definitely serious acts of terrorism. However, much of the terrorism is fairly small in scale, the demographic most likely to engage is also the demographic most likely to be under monitoring for terrorism anyway, and I think the majority of the population have sympathies with the Jewish population, particularly after 7/10/23 (one way I am sure of this is the result of the public vote for last years Eurovision song contest). I also would not at all be surprised to find that there has been a lot of external support for the endless pro Hamas (for that is what they are) marches rather than them being home grown.
TLDR – while there are pockets of anti Semitism in the more radical sections of the Muslim and student left communities, I don’t think it is widespread amongst society as a whole.
@bazza but he didnt know it was a hoax. had this been real then he would have been correct. terror threats should be taken seriously until they are proven no to be.
for the jewish community these threats were real. i hope nsw police throw the books at them
@john – yes – pete didn’t know much about it at all. Didn’t stop him trying to play politics though
“had this been real then he would have been correct” – I hope that you let everyone off as easily as this
That questions his judgement. He said he could get Trump to not impose tariffs against Australia..
He also said tariffs would curtail domestic production
Now if you believe that i’ ve got a bridge for you to buy at least 4 times !