LNP 1.7%
Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.
Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.
History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.
Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.
Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.
Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since.
Peter Dutton has held his seat ever since. He served as a junior minister in the final term of the Howard government and as a senior minister in the Coalition government from 2013 until 2022. After the Coalition’s defeat at the 2022 election, he was elected as leader of the opposition.
- Vinnie Batten (Greens)
- Peter Dutton (Liberal National)
- Ali France (Labor)
- Suniti Hewett (Family First)
- Ellie Smith (Independent)
Assessment
Dickson is quite a marginal seat and it is worth watching. Labor did quite poorly in Queensland in 2022 compared to other states. If they benefit from incumbency they could pick up a substantial amount of ground in Queensland.
It’s also worth noting that Dutton has increased his profile now as leader of his party, which will probably improve his position in his local seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 41,657 | 42.1 | -3.9 |
| Ali France | Labor | 31,396 | 31.7 | +0.4 |
| Vinnie Batten | Greens | 12,871 | 13.0 | +3.0 |
| Tamera Gibson | One Nation | 5,312 | 5.4 | +0.2 |
| Alina Karen Ward | United Australia | 2,717 | 2.7 | +0.5 |
| Alan Buchbach | Independent | 2,222 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Thor Prohaska | Independent | 1,618 | 1.6 | -0.7 |
| Lloyd Russell | Liberal Democrats | 1,236 | 1.2 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 3,996 | 3.9 | -0.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 51,196 | 51.7 | -2.9 |
| Ali France | Labor | 47,833 | 48.3 | +2.9 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-east (51.1%) and the west (54.7%), as well as on the pre-poll and other votes. Labor won 52.5% in the north-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.2% in the north-east to 18% in the west, but just 11.7% on the pre-poll.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 13.2 | 47.5 | 16,958 | 17.1 |
| South-East | 15.8 | 51.1 | 14,310 | 14.5 |
| West | 18.0 | 54.7 | 4,621 | 4.7 |
| Pre-poll | 11.7 | 52.3 | 38,111 | 38.5 |
| Other votes | 12.4 | 53.4 | 25,029 | 25.3 |
Election results in Dickson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
my understanding it was a short trip down to sydney for a pre planned even and he went straight back
“I think people probably want from their prime minister is governing, not campaigning, at a time like this.”
Would he have organisational skills ?
I presume so?
Could direct sandbagging.
Letter box useful info re cyclone
Text
His office reaching out to those in trouble… centrelink emergency
Emergency housing.
Lots Dutton could do to help!!!
@real talk how does that apply to this? he in neither the prime minster and therefore isnt able to government nad a) how do you know what he was doing in sydney? and isnt campaigning and fundraising 2 different things? besides its not like the pm wasnt doing the same thing in brisbane with Anika Wells. what part of her sport portfolio has anything to do with handing out sandbags? just another excuse to get her in front of the cameras to prop her up in lilley.
Those were Dutton’s literal words, out of his own mouth, earlier in the week in relation to the movements of the prime minister.
Once again, you have one standard for Dutton and another for everyone else.
Wells is also the minister for aged care. Do the elderly not experience natural disasters?
no idont. if dutton were the pm then i would absolutely be critising it but hes not. still it has nothing to do with her aged care portfolio. most people probably couldnt care less if their local mp are down filling sand bags. you know theyre just doing it for brownie points.
just like noone cares when albo calls the election in qld. it doesnt effect them one way or another.
Brownie points don’t vote, John.
A lot of LNP members are filling up sand bags too. It demonstrates awareness, solidarity with their community, and empathy. Ask them if they’re doing it for brownie points. The Queensland premier is doing a terrific job. It’s a shame that the alternate prime minister has failed this test of symbolic leadership.
Adversity doesn’t create character: it reveals it.
@John I’m sorry but your whole argument is based on the fact that everything Dutton does is justified but if Albanese does the same he should be pilloried. That’s not how it works. For the record Dutton’s colleagues neighbouring him have been pulling the hard yards and helping out. I’m not a fan of Luke Howarth but props to him for getting out there into the community. You’d probably say he’s standing up for his people but why the criticism of Anika Wells then who’s also doing the same thing in her electorate?
I know you do have a preference for the Liberals but you cannot let that cloud over the fact that Dutton left his electorate to attend a fundraiser when everyone else, including his own LNP colleagues were working with everyone to prepare for a cyclone. If Albanese did the same it would and should be rightfully called out like how he bought a house during a housing crisis.
it would matter if she was down at an aged care home filling sand bags or helping get old people to safety. its not her job and has nothing to do with her portfolio. this is the place for Minister for emergency management jenny mcallister
the next time a cyclone threatens Grayndler and albo wanders off for a hours be sure to remind me to give a free pass
@John Now you’re conflating this whole argument to protect the Liberals. Jim Chalmers is also down in Rankin and he’s the Treasurer, so his responsibility is everything money. Does that mean he should be in Canberra preparing the budget instead of being with his community? What about Milton Dick? He should be presiding over parliament house right now instead of being stuck in Inala and Forest Lake of all places helping his community. Sorry but with all due respect, your argument is littered with bias and flawed overall.
Fact of the matter is, Dutton could’ve resisted that opportunity to go to Sydney if he was genuinely willing to stand with his electorate, but he chose not to and rightfully or wrongfully, it’s a bad look.
@John Now don’t go on about this ridiculous thing about cyclones hitting Grayndler. It’s not realistic.
I accept that you won’t have a bar of criticism about Dutton and want this to be all about wanting Labor to lose instead but the reality is that he’s the one who did it and he should be responsible for explaining this, if he even bothers at all.
It’s not as bad as Scott Morrison’s Hawaii trip but it’s getting there. I don’t think it’s enough for him to lose Dickson but it certainly won’t paint the prettiest picture of him to the electorate.
Simple question:
How many lnp federal
members attended the fund raiser besides Dutton?
My gut instinct tells me it is a number
Of less than 1!
Here’s Climate 200 beneficiary Ellie Smith’s PR on the latest Dutton atrocity:
https://www.elliesmith.com.au/statement_on_cyclone_alfred_and_the_member_for_dickson
Huge error, imo. The smart move woulda been to wait for Ali France to say this. Now Ellie just looks like a Labor stooge.
Here we go. Ali France can’t bag Dutts because: https://www.9news.com.au/national/dutton-rival-fundraising-750km-from-seat/3add1f78-40d4-4a31-8170-ec0e55867fb2
Had a fundraiser in Balmain while running for Dickson in 2019. Mustn’t remind anybody about that.
Pete could have got Gina to send one of her private jets to Dickson to evacuate those most in need/biggest LNP donors
@Tommo9, as a matter of factor, it is realistic that, due to the effects of climate change, cyclones could potentially hit Sydney. The factors were even correct for Alfred to have hit Sydney.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/as-far-south-as-sydney-why-cyclones-are-growing-deadlier-and-heading-our-way-20250304-p5lgp1.html
@john Albo got attacked by a LNP supporting shock jock when there was a flood in Marrickville – however he had to wasn’t actually in his electorate
No answers to my question
@tommo a) there isnt gonna be abudget b)parliamnet is not in seesion at least not the lower house c) actually i want labor to jsut win narrowly in minority make a shitshow of the next parliament so dutton can come in and romp it in 2028.
@mick a) hes the opposition leader and b) i dont think any one else had any schedlued.
Labor appears to be throwing a lot of resources at this electorate. Dutton nicking off to Sydney isn’t a great look especially so close to an election. I am surprised that he decided to leave rather than stay as he has a small margin and this has extensive media coverage.
Dutton either got bad or no advice
Labor have learnt from last time that they need to focus on a few target seats, instead of spreading their resources across a bunch of SEQ seats. From memory, Griffith and Dickson are the big targets.
AA, I think it might have been a mistake for Labor to target Dickson as a key seat given the high profile of Peter Dutton as Opposition Leader (even though it also overlaps with the state seat of Murrumba, held by Labor leader Steven Miles).
Longman might have been a better option as it covers more Labor friendly areas around Caboolture, plus it has a lower profile backbencher Terry Young as its incumbent MP.
Yoh An March 7, 2025 at 4:31 pm
Dickson should be a fairly safe Labor seat on State results. Ali France has never been far away, even in 2019 when the Morrison Government won 1.15 million more votes than the Labor Party. https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm
Longman looks good for Labor on paper, Terry Young has no national profile, but he’s been in retail in Caboolture for 30 years, Labor isn’t going to knock him over with a social woker/single mum in this environment.
I’d say Dickson and Griffith are winnable and Kennedy might be. Labor hasn’t announced a candidate there yet, that might mean a Uni student from Brisbane is gonna run, but it might mean they’ve got a smokey up there too.
@Yoh An My hunch is that they chose Dickson because the high profile of Dutton means that they can drum up extra support and donations. Also because Dickson is the LNP’s most marginal seat.
Like @Gympie said, Longman looks good on paper, but Terry Young has built up a high profile in the Moreton Bay Region. It’s an outer suburban seat with a lot of battlers. Longman won’t swing to Labor, in an election where Labor is unpopular, and Peter Dutton’s LNP is appealing to outer suburban voters. Longman is a seat where Peter Dutton’s “home state advantage” would greatly help the LNP.
Queensland should be better for Labor.
Capricornia Flynn Leichardt should be close but I think Labor is only in with a chance in Leichardt.
The 3 green seats are up for grabs if greens lose Griffith and Brisbane to alp
Ryan to libs.
Dickson Bonner and long man close but best Labor can hope for is one of the 3.
I would be surprised if Labor won Leichhardt.
I would be amazed if they won Longman or Bonner.
I would be astonished if they won Dickson, Flynn or Capricornia.
To be honest, I don’t think Labor gains any seats off the Coalition in Queensland. They might regain one of the Green seats, yet lose Blair, for no net gain.
Agree Real Talk and Gympie, Queensland is likely to see a status quo result for Labor (not only caused by the general swing against the party nationwide but also due to the ‘home state’ factor of Peter Dutton as Opposition Leader similar to Kevin Rudd in 2007).
The recently elected LNP government still being in its ‘honeymoon’ period will also cause the expected swing to the Coalition to be stronger in Queensland compared to other states.
Labor have only ever won Dickson in good years for labor. 93 and 98. 22 was probably their best chance. If Dutton were to be pm for 2-3 terms then when labor came got power that would be their chance.
Also in to those saying about federal labor and greens mps out filling sandbags. Did you see any state mps out there filling those bags? What about David crisafulli? Was he out saving peoples cats from trees? Did anyone catch the footage of Janelle Saffin down in Lismore helping fill sandbags there? It’s all about looking good for the cameras because there’s an election coming. You didn’t see any MPs or candidates helping in the NQ floods did you? Was it the best option for Dutton to do that no. But in addition to the member for Dickson he is also the opposition leader and part of that entails raising money and appearing. If he were the PM then it would be a problem because they have control of the levers of govt and getting help to those who need it. You wouldn’t expect a minster or the PM to return from an important state visit overseas that has benefits for Australia. It’s not like he decided to just take a holiday away from the cyclone he came straight back. Dutton will increase his margin somewhere to around 4-5%.
Plenty of LNP MPs out and about filling sandbags and helping at the emergency centres according to their social media.
@John Pretty sure that Phillip Thompson was working with locals to fill sandbags and stop the floods in his electorate of Herbert during the North Queensland floods and was away from parliament because of it. Same with Bob Katter. It’s Dutton’s own lieutenants pulling the hard yards and rightly so because it’s more than just a camera opportunity or positive optics. It’s about connecting and standing shoulder to shoulder with the community.
To the argument about how being the Opposition Leader that he has to be there at the fundraiser. Sure he attended it and there’s nothing illegal about it, but given he’s positioned himself as the ‘Alternative PM for the battlers’, it’s certainly a fantastic look for him to be dining in with the elites and millionaires that your average Joes either don’t care about or fully despise. Again it loses out both optically and sentimentally. It’s kind of weird that you’re trying to justify Dutton’s expenditure yet tear into Albo for doing similar or less previously. Let’s just say that had Dutton not mysteriously disappeared into Sydney for this, no one would be talking about this and his reputation would be fully intact, right?
If Bill Shorten had of been in Hawaii during the bush fires would he need to return? Would anyone care?
He popped into an obligation he had made the immediately returned. Name one similar instance please.
I just don’t see it as the best use of time for an MP TBH. They should be organizing more help or something they have the power to do that regular people do not. I mean how would it look if you saw Scomo out fighting the bushfires when he could be doing something more productive.
Bill Shorten wasn’t the opposition leader during the bushfire crisis. Being as knowledgeable as you are, you should have realised that. Plus, you missed a golden chance to sink the boot into Albo again. Alas.
As previously pointed out, Thompson and Katter stayed home during the floods and provided excellent leadership, as did David Crusafulli and all the state MPs.
The issue isn’t Dutton going to a fund-raiser. It’s the appearance of choosing to prioritise that over a serious threat to the people literally in his home electorate. To the rusted-on LNP and ALP voters, this matters little – which I think is your point – but to the undecided voters who are looking for confirmation that they should swing away from Labor, it’s not a great look.
The good news is now the cyclone has been downgraded, although there is a lot of rain yet to come. Sadly a man appears to have drowned near Dorrigo in NSW yesterday.
@Real Talk, by “stayed home” you mean “stayed in their electorates and helped” rather than “stayed at home”. In this instance, it’s a good thing to “stay home”.
I meant albo it was 130 in the morning jeez.
That’s your issue, not mine, mate.
@John my local Labor state MP was out helping local organisations tidy up, as well as doing sandbags.
I agree completely with @Real Talk and @Tommo9, it’s about Dutton actually being in his electorate when they’re going through something difficult. The people who say that Albo is out of touch for buying a house, are the same ones who seem to be fine with Dutton abandoning his own electorate, during a natural disaster, to dine with the ultra rich in Sydney.
I guess people in Dickson would know after 20 years that Pete doesn’t care about them so no reason why this issue would change there mind in the next election
1.7% is a small margin…. that means every vote counts. If qld is largely neutral due to the cyclone.
Then Dutton has managed to offend some….hope enough for ……af
While it wasn’t probably the best decision he only left for a short while. Nothing happened in the time it took him to leave and get back. Any who votes against Sutton over this was probably already voting labor. Dutton should hold the seat.in two months it will be forgotten in Dickson as it doesn’t look like this area will be greatly affected. The story will be about labors budget come election time.
Labor had their chance in 2022. If he holds here his margin will be propped up by lib voting areas from longman at the redistribution. Longman would be a better target. Dickson could be vulnerable when Dutton and the Libs are on their way out of govt sometimes around 2034-2037. Labor would probably only hold it for one term as they have in the past.
surprisingly none of Dutton’s behaviour is going to stop @john voting for the LNP
I don’t vote for the lnp. I’m helping getting rid of Helen Haines in Indi. Libs have a good candidate.
So is anyone gonna say anything about Albo out campaigning with Roger cook in Perth on Friday? Mick?