LNP 1.7%
Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.
Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.
History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.
Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.
Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.
Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since.
Peter Dutton has held his seat ever since. He served as a junior minister in the final term of the Howard government and as a senior minister in the Coalition government from 2013 until 2022. After the Coalition’s defeat at the 2022 election, he was elected as leader of the opposition.
- Vinnie Batten (Greens)
- Peter Dutton (Liberal National)
- Ali France (Labor)
- Suniti Hewett (Family First)
- Ellie Smith (Independent)
- Joel Stevenson (One Nation)
Assessment
Dickson is quite a marginal seat and it is worth watching. Labor did quite poorly in Queensland in 2022 compared to other states. If they benefit from incumbency they could pick up a substantial amount of ground in Queensland.
It’s also worth noting that Dutton has increased his profile now as leader of his party, which will probably improve his position in his local seat.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 41,657 | 42.1 | -3.9 |
Ali France | Labor | 31,396 | 31.7 | +0.4 |
Vinnie Batten | Greens | 12,871 | 13.0 | +3.0 |
Tamera Gibson | One Nation | 5,312 | 5.4 | +0.2 |
Alina Karen Ward | United Australia | 2,717 | 2.7 | +0.5 |
Alan Buchbach | Independent | 2,222 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
Thor Prohaska | Independent | 1,618 | 1.6 | -0.7 |
Lloyd Russell | Liberal Democrats | 1,236 | 1.2 | +1.3 |
Informal | 3,996 | 3.9 | -0.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 51,196 | 51.7 | -2.9 |
Ali France | Labor | 47,833 | 48.3 | +2.9 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-east (51.1%) and the west (54.7%), as well as on the pre-poll and other votes. Labor won 52.5% in the north-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.2% in the north-east to 18% in the west, but just 11.7% on the pre-poll.
Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
North-East | 13.2 | 47.5 | 16,958 | 17.1 |
South-East | 15.8 | 51.1 | 14,310 | 14.5 |
West | 18.0 | 54.7 | 4,621 | 4.7 |
Pre-poll | 11.7 | 52.3 | 38,111 | 38.5 |
Other votes | 12.4 | 53.4 | 25,029 | 25.3 |
Election results in Dickson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Alot of the hopeful that Dutton could lose stuff in this thread.
Firstly let’s ignore that it looks like an overall swing to the coalition this election. Even if the demographics were favourable and considering the resourcing of the Independent or Labor candidates, there is no real reason that we should expect an upset here.
Simply because its been heavily targeted before by high profile campaigns that demonise Dutton as some evil figure. It hasn’t worked before.
If this was the first attempt then maybe I would consider it possible.
But multiple attempts, clearly the attack doesn’t work with his local community and the more they do it the less credible it is. It looks like a personal attack rather than a substantial one and people get turned off.
Dutton is a leader of the alternate government.. his actions set an example.
He chose to profit from bank shares and extend his property empire. So he is saying it is OK to speculate.
His fellow speculators help put up property prices so that there is a rent and
Home ownership crisis.
Just imagine if Mr Dutton in an alternate reality had acted differently.
@mic without investment properties there would be no places to rent. if people worked as hard and invested wisely they could be as successful as Dutton.
Rent is a function of house prices.
So if one goes up the other will.
Therefore speculation has an adverse effect
Without houses there can be no rent
The scary hard man monster stuff won’t work in Dickson, even people who don’t vote for Peter know he’s done the right thing in the Electorate.
My point is he’s always got enough preference leakage to get over the line, Ali France can’t win even in a good year for Labor, but if Ellie Smith can peel off a few percent of the LNP vote, then the other 57% of non LNP voters can get her home.
Without having seen how the Teals voters filled out the ballot, i’m going to guess that many had Sharma, Frydenburg, Falinski, Zimmerman, Wilson, Hammond, at No. 2, perhaps not anticipating that those preferences wouldn’t be distributed.
Otherwise, what explains Frydenburg and Tim Wilson wanting to recontest, after being handily beaten in 2022?
@john without investment properties there would be more places to buy
Speculation forced up house prices which led to rent increases. So young couples paid for Dutton ‘s success.
He could do that because of his parliamentary income buffer.
He owned those properties before he was in parliament
Mick
Go through the parliamentary register and go through some Labor MPs interests – some between them and their spouses own multiple properties, have family trusts, self managed super funds. Some have share portfolios and investments worth squilllions. And surely – if they have been in parliament for a while – their SMSF has not been just left alone to do nothing.
if this is the worst stuff they could dig up on Dutton people should be happy. Duttons welath came from before he entered parliament. all labor have done is have people ask why te labor dirt unit is using tax payers money to dig up dirt on their political opponent.
Keep banging that blue drum, John.
He sold six properties between 2019 and 2024 alone.
He made trades of shares during the GFC.
He failed to update the register of interests in a timely fashion no less than 15 times. Twice he didn’t even bother. So much for personal responsibility. “Rules for thee, but not for me”.
Dutton entered parliament in 2001. To suggest “Duttons welath came from before he entered parliament” is disingenuous at best, and ignorant at worst.
Yes, Dutton had a degree of wealth prior to entering parliament. It is undeniable to say it has grown considerably since.
People are right to ask questions.
@real so what selling property you own is not illegal. nor is making share trades during teh GFC. yea its not like Albo hasnt done anything different.
That is precisely my point, which you have failed to grasp.
You have been consistent in your criticism of the prime minister making a private property purchase. Your preferred prime minister has been doing the same thing for literally over a quarter of a century.
Either both are doing nothing wrong, or both are doing something wrong.
Your opportunitistic criticism of one side but not the other for doing precisely the same thing is tiresome.
no i have been critical of the PM buying a $4.3m mansion suring a col crisis. find me Peter Dutton buy something that expensive and il critisize hime for it.
For goodness sake man, use a spell checker.
Are you critical of everyone who purchases mansions during the past three years, or just the person leading the party you don’t like?
If what Dutton does with his money is his business, then the same rule applies to all.
@real if they were politicians then yes. perception is everything someone who buys a $4.3 mansion (albo) and a $12 million beachfront property and then claims they understand how australians are doing it tough aint being upfront with people.
The Albo house purchase was like a much milder version of Scomo’s Hawaii holiday – it’s not so much that people object to the notions of a PM buying a house or going on a holiday but the optics and context behind each were politically poor choices.
Probably not the greatest comparison
I don’t think people are too fussed about politicians buying shares (like most of us do), but rather, it’s the circumstances they buy them in, whether they declare their conflicts of interest or whether it has led to favouritism.
@John what about Peter Dutton’s $30 million property portfolio?
I understand Albanese’s house 9n the central coast is to be his home.
I never said Dutton obviously broke the law. But he lived at a level of wealth that is divorced from the world of the average man….. or woman!!!
He had a choice to be a senior politican or a share and property speculator. Sure he is not the only rich politician .
Politicans are well paid and the higher you get the better you are paid. This base politician ‘s salary made his search for wealth easier.
The more you own the more is the potential conflict of interest.
What do he and his colleagues do to cope with potential conflicts and to be seen as not conflicted.
What assets does he allow his ministers to hold?
Shares
Real estate
Property trusts?
@aa did he go and buy all that recently in 1 hitt
Shares story absent from today’s The Australian, doesn’t mean it’s gone away. Top of p4, senior repoerter Sarah Elks says Labor are
“heavily targeting Leichhardt” and “trying to win back Griffith.
… Dickson and Bonner are also hoped for but less likely.”
No mention at all of Brisbane and Ryan, which as recent poll had along with Griffith as Labor gains.
Why isn’t Labor targetting Brisbane? Is it because it’s a three-way contest?
Maybe they are but The Australian didn’t mention it. From memory, Labor narrowly missed out on reaching the 2PP in the 3PP count. A small shift from the Greens to Labor or a better preference flow to Labor from minor parties would put the Greens in danger.
Probably the only true 3-way contest in the country where you’d give each of the 3 a proper chance to win, Labor made a big song and dance about selecting the candidate there so I presume they are targeting it and in fact have a much better shot there than in Griffith.
Ryan their chances are quite remote
Hope I am wrong but Max Hyphen is likely to win Griffith
Trump has sided with Putin recently as evident from todays Zelenskyy argument and the UN vote however Dutton as expected followed the European Conservatives in distancing themselves Trump’s Ukraine policy.
I wonder why the hard right and mainstream right tends to have very different stances when it comes to Ukraine?
Because Putin is loved by Trump .
And Trump controls the GOP.
Trump does not believe in Democracy.
Apparently Dutton left Queensland ahead of the Cyclone to attend a Lib fundraiser at a Justin Hemmes’ $100 Million Mansion
Careful Caleb, the blue brigade here will have none of your scurrilous slander.
Dutton was merely representing his constituents of Dickson from a reasonably safe and sensible distance. Shame on Albanese for not thinking of doing the same for himself, surely a sign of weakness.
Weren’t we all about socially distancing ourselves not five years ago? Dutton was socially distancing himself from Alfred!
It’s perfectly reasonable that the leader whose seat is in Brisbane is spotted bravely advocating for his own interests at a mansion in Sydney. On the other hand, it is an indefensible outrage that the leader whose seat is in Sydney is spotted at disaster management centres advocating for his fellow citizens’ interests in Brisbane.
Has the world gone topsy-turvy? Is nothing sacred anymore?
@Real Talk This is the sort of thing that some on here (and quite frankly, the media and some in the population) will lurch onto Albanese for if it was him, but with Dutton, we won’t hear a whimper because he’s a strong leader who will bring prices down and make woke illegal whilst the rest of the country suffers.
@Tommo9 Right’o then.
Pete doing a fundraiser during a cyclone is another disaster for Labor. It will make Dickson a lock for the Libs and probably flip 10 other seats to them
What can Dutton actually do in Qld re the cyclone? Has no executive power of any kind. Can’t order any state of Federal emergency services to do anything.
Good electorate office staff will be assisting with information flow and helping the state authorities coordinate ahead of the actual storm crossing the coast.
@Huxley Brown He might not be able to do anything about the cyclone but given that it’s election year and Politics is all about optics as much as it’s about policies, Dutton should’ve known better to stick with his community and at least appear to try and show that he’s working with everyone and protecting everyone. Albanese might be back in Canberra but he’s nowhere near a holiday house or anything, he’s been at the emergency coordination centre.
And before anyone else says anything, Dutton’s LNP colleagues like Howarth, Young, Vasta etc are all working to help their community instead of ducking off to Sydney unbeknownst to anyone till now. Even if it’s small actions and gives good optics more than anything, it’s something that could be valuable to him if he wants to present himself as more likeable.
Dutton proving himself to be apart of the community, not a part of the community.
Modern political discourse around leaders’ exact movements prior to and during natural disasters is incredibly annoying. Doesn’t matter which side does it.
I’ve noticed that there are MPs (across the political aisle) who are coordinating sandbagging as well as door-knocking and delivering food for the elderly.
We can agree that whilst Dutton doesn’t hold a hose, or a shovel, unfortunately, optics is a big part.
I noticedGreens MPs Elizabeth Watson-Brown and Stephen Bates on Instagram inviting everyone to come on down to somewhere to fill sandbags.
All the sandbag fillers in the background were wearing Greens T-shirts.
They must be pretty hopeful to think many apart from Superfans are going to fall for that.
Teals beneficiary in Dickson Ellie Smith has made it an issue too.
Perhaps it will work, Dutts in Sydney putting the squeeze on toffs on Tuesday night, Cyclone Alfred lands around Coolangatta on Saturday morning, flooding in low lying areas od the Goldy and Northern New South Wales from next week?
Dutton was in Sydney Tuesday. He is back in Queensland, late Thursday and the cyclone is yet to hit the coast.
Stop hyperventilating girls.
Such a mature addition to the discourse, Huxley. True colours on display.
This whole situation is pretty complex. On one hand Dutton should absolutely be in his electorate to do as much as possible. But on the other hand, he can’t do much since he isn’t in government.
Was a bad look for Dutton….. Nero fiddled whilst Rome burns…
@ np
He knows the optics…….. he could well be seen trying to do something… not hob knobbing with the mega rich.
I take it he was collecting funds for disaster relief?
what do people expect Peter Dutton to do stay at home giving a running commentary on the cyclone? hes not in any position to make decisions that effect or help people. so what if hes in sydney?
I guess the voters in Dickson are too busy securing their property to worry about what fundraising events Pete has been at
peter dutton has also had to secure his own property too and why would they even care what hes doing?
I don’t know, maybe it’s because he’s meant to represent them or something? Because he’s the alternative Prime Minister?
so hes supposed to do what exactly? stand around and direct traffic?
He could be filling sandbags like many other Brisbane MPs, and doing something useful for the community. Even if he is standing around directing traffic, it’s better than nothing.