Dickson – Australia 2025

LNP 1.7%

Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.

Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.

History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.

Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.

Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.

Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since.

Peter Dutton has held his seat ever since. He served as a junior minister in the final term of the Howard government and as a senior minister in the Coalition government from 2013 until 2022. After the Coalition’s defeat at the 2022 election, he was elected as leader of the opposition.

Candidates

Assessment
Dickson is quite a marginal seat and it is worth watching. Labor did quite poorly in Queensland in 2022 compared to other states. If they benefit from incumbency they could pick up a substantial amount of ground in Queensland.

It’s also worth noting that Dutton has increased his profile now as leader of his party, which will probably improve his position in his local seat.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Dutton Liberal National 41,657 42.1 -3.9
Ali France Labor 31,396 31.7 +0.4
Vinnie Batten Greens 12,871 13.0 +3.0
Tamera Gibson One Nation 5,312 5.4 +0.2
Alina Karen Ward United Australia 2,717 2.7 +0.5
Alan Buchbach Independent 2,222 2.2 +2.2
Thor Prohaska Independent 1,618 1.6 -0.7
Lloyd Russell Liberal Democrats 1,236 1.2 +1.3
Informal 3,996 3.9 -0.5

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Dutton Liberal National 51,196 51.7 -2.9
Ali France Labor 47,833 48.3 +2.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-east (51.1%) and the west (54.7%), as well as on the pre-poll and other votes. Labor won 52.5% in the north-east.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.2% in the north-east to 18% in the west, but just 11.7% on the pre-poll.

Voter group GRN prim LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
North-East 13.2 47.5 16,958 17.1
South-East 15.8 51.1 14,310 14.5
West 18.0 54.7 4,621 4.7
Pre-poll 11.7 52.3 38,111 38.5
Other votes 12.4 53.4 25,029 25.3

Election results in Dickson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.

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343 COMMENTS

  1. @Caleb, they are most likely going to have Mark Carney as Liberal Leader which I assume he was able to gain back the lost voters who are socially progressive but economically conservative (Canadian Teals) indicating Pierre Poilievre is not well liked among the “Canadian Teals” due to his support for the “Freedom” Convoy and his egoistic language (very similar to Matthew Guy).

  2. @Caleb comparing the Canadian nationwide opinion polls it actually looks like the Conservative vote is static. The five polls conducted in February so far still have the Conservatives ahead by a significant amount (between 5.9% and 13%). Comparing the two newest polls (on 7 and 10 February) the Conservative vote is the same, the Liberal vote is up a bit and the NDP vote is slightly down (as for the other minor parties, Bloc Québecois is static, the People’s Party is down slightly and the Green vote is static, while others are up slightly).

    As for Australia, the February polls are looking pretty similar to each other. The Coalition is up, Labor is down, the Greens are basically the same, One Nation is down a lot (went from 7% according to DemosAU on 1 February to 4% according to Roy Morgan on 9 February). On TPP the Coalition continue to have a slight lead over Labor.

    As for tariffs, it’s likely this is just a scare tactic by Donald Trump. He’s made a plethora of decisions already and they don’t seem to be helping the economy much. He’s made a few good decisions but the vast majority have been stupid. Like how can the US just own the Gaza Strip and make it a resort? Why are those two words even in the same sentence?

  3. I wouldn’t say that the Canadian Liberals have a fighting chance but they have improved their position and narrowed the gap with the Conservatives and taken support from the NDP. It’s hard to tell what spurred this but it coincided with the resignation of Trudeau and Trump’s inauguration.

  4. 1. Dutton I don’t think was guilty of any offence but he still saw the main chance to share trade for a profit and did so.
    2. Re property holdings seems his level of wealth is much higher than your average person…. out of touch???
    3. Conflict of interest
    The more you own the more likely you are to have an actual or potential conflict of interest… what will he do to advoid this?
    4. Can ministers own / trade shares as part of a possible Labor government.

  5. he seems to have built wealth while in government in an industry that relies on government funding and regulation
    he seems to be good at trading shares that are sensitive to government policy changes
    he seems to prefer to block debate and be secretive rather than be transparent

    So people that care about MPs being transparent and working for the general population rather than themselve/mates would probably care. That would also mean that the vast majority of the Australian population probably don’t care

  6. I think the problem is more around the way that he owns them. Yes he is a very rich individual but a lot of politicians are, but the fact that his properties are all wrapped up in Trusts and therefore not listed on his register of assets could be a bad look amongst the outer suburban working class that he is attempting to appeal to.

  7. Mr Dutton had 3 different investment
    Vehicles
    a) As an individual probably includes family members
    b) private company
    c) family trust
    There must be reasons for this..I assume
    The family trust was a discretionary trust which allowed him to control the timing and proportion of any distribution.

  8. @mick being wealthy is not a crime he has been smart and made money on his own legally. That doesn’t make him out of touch. Family trust are set up to preserve intergenerational wealth. No as long as he declares his holdings and removes himself from any decision that would benfit himself there is no conflict of interest. Everybody owns shares well most people anyway.

    @witness family trusts are not to hide the holdings but so people can preserve intergenerational wealth.most people would not care that he has money. Unlike albo he’s not going on a spending spree to life the high life when he leaves polticis. Having money is not a crime nor should it be.

  9. @Real Talk – seems about right

    Albo is on a “spending spree” because he bought a house on the central coast

    Dutton is fair and balanced because he has 30+ properties

  10. If you compare the wealth of Dutton to Turnbull then there is no comparison. Likewise, if you look collectively at Rudd’s wealth, that is both Rudd and his wife, again there is no comparison to Dutton.
    By comparison again, Abbott had relatively modest property holdings when PM.
    I am not sure how this plays out, but I am unsure that wealth of a potential PM has weighed upon voter’s decision in the past; rather it could be rational for a decision that has already been made (ie: a rusted on ALP voter saying Dutton is out of touch and his wealth proves that).
    That this has been raised even before the campaign gets going, indicates to me this is going to be a nasty campaign.

  11. No idea couldn’t care less what they own as long as its legal and within the rules. I actually hope to join that club one day. Whe. The stupid woolowrths decides they want to cough up what they owe me

    Bazza dutton hasn’t gone buying 4.3m clifftop manions. I would hardly call a 4.3m mansion a house. There’s a difference between owning property and buying mansions during a cost of living crisis.

  12. I have an idea that Mr Dutton have substantially more than the quoted figures.
    I have at no stage suggested Mr Dutton acted illegally

  13. Pls see My post dated 12.28… being wealthy per say is not wrong But does he want power or wealth?
    Why does he want political power?
    Such tests are the measure of a leader

  14. Everyone aspires Robertson wealthy. Noone wants to live in poverty. Envy and jealous are just as destructive as greed.

  15. The possibility of potential insider trader is more worrisome to me than his properties.

    As a member of parliament, even in opposition, you would surely be aware a day in advance of a significant decision such as a government bailing out major banks, and to buy shares in those banks only a day before the announcement is simply not a good look.

  16. Wisdom comes with age.
    Money is a necessary evil… I don’t aspire to wealth…just enough is OK.
    But Mr Dutton wants to have his cake and
    Eat it too!

  17. Trusts might be to preserve intergenerational wealth, but that’s something most voters don’t and will never have. To a lot of voters Family Trusts appear to be a way of paying less tax, and this perception may play badly with the voters who Dutton is trying to woo.
    It is just Labor or someone in the media throwing dirt for distraction/ to tarnish Dutton, but there’s still more of this to come. Will we see all the other unproven allegations against Dutton dug up again and played out before the election (there’s plenty of them).

  18. @ttent the only members of the opposition privy to that were the opposition leader and the shadow treasurer

  19. @witness everyone should want to pay less tax. I don’t think you can find anyone who wants to pay more tax then they have too

  20. Officially. As if whispers wouldn’t have been going around Parliament House and the party room.

    Are you saying there’s a 0.000000% chance that Dutton, as an elected politician, knew that it even MIGHT have been discussed as a possibility?

  21. It’s irrelevant. I can tell you I profited from that decision I bought shares in the banks about a week before it was announced not because I knee but because ibsaw a hood dwal. It doesn’t matter if it was a possibility unless it’s proven you can’t just assume guilt. Everyone is innocent until proven guilty. It was just a thought bubble from the Labor dirt unit which is why they’ve moved on to his property.

  22. Most voters won’t care how much money he has. Its gonna be about cost of living and what he intends to do about it. He’s not going around buying up property or shares while most Aussies are struggling so he’s not out of touch. If he were I would have called it out just like I did Albo.

  23. @Darth Vader, I disagree. Not everybody wants to minimise their tax and not everybody aspires to accumulate more wealth than what would provide them a comfortable life.

    There would be many high income earners, or people with assets, who believe it is their duty to pay their fair share of tax and give back to the society they gained their wealth from in the first place, and not pull all the levers available to them to minimise their tax.

    Similarly, there would be a lot of people who accumulate the wealth they need to live a comfortable life, and are then happy to use that money to enjoy their life rather than using it to keep accumulating more excess wealth.

    I think especially on that last point, the majority would actually fall into that category. Most people if they had enough money to retire, would simply retire and enjoy it rather than keep pursuing additional wealth.

    In particular, if somebody is choosing to be an elected representative, they should absolutely believe that society’s needs are more important than individual wealth, or they are in the wrong job.

  24. all I see is a large amount of people happy to accept low levels of integrity and transparency from their elected representatives (as long as they are on their “side” of course)

  25. @Trent Pete is closely associated with one of Australia’s richest individuals who also has a track record of wanting to accumulate more wealth (even at expense of her family)

    would make someone question his motives of seeking a position of power if they cared

  26. @trent that’s why you can be a philanthropist. Anyone who thinks the govt is the best person to give money to is an idiot. The government is the biggest waster of money ever. They don’t care how money is spent because it’s not their money. I hardly think PD is is in the top 1%. He hasn’t made his wealth off society but rather his own smart investing and decisions. If the government doesn’t help you make your money why should you want to give more back.

    Bazza where has anyone suggested the level integrity and transparency was anything other then by the books

  27. @bazza i assume your talking about Gina Rinehart. Her family are of no better standard. They are simply spoilt kids with a sense of entitlement wanting to take their 5 pieces of silver from a trust whose wealth they put no effort into creating maintaining or keeping intact for the future. They are no different to people who want their parents/grandparents to roll over and die so they can get their inheritance.

  28. @John: PD is in the top .5% or higher. His income puts him and any other politician in the top 1% and his net worth puts him well among the top 1%. His entire wealth is based on exploiting the system and has been generated through government grants. It may not be illegal, but it’s incredibly shady and he’s a hypocrite over his attacks on Albonese’s mansion worth far less than some in his portfolio.

  29. On one hand:

    “No idea couldn’t care less what they own as long as its legal and within the rules.”

    “It’s not a crime to be rich”

    But on the other hand:

    “dutton hasn’t gone buying 4.3m clifftop manions. I would hardly call a 4.3m mansion a house. There’s a difference between owning property and buying mansions during a cost of living crisis”

    Anyone else picking up a bit of a vibe here?

    Either have one standard to hold against everyone, or ditch standards altogether.

    Personally, what Dutton and Albo do with their money is their business. It is only relevant if and when their financial decisions impact their political decisions, and vice versa.

    Anyhow, I doubt any of this back-and-forth shenanigans will seriously move the needle on either side of the political divide. It’s largely pointless and repetitive bickering by those who refuse that the opposite side is capable or redeemable in any sense, and cannot see they are floating in a sea of hypocrisy.

  30. 1. DUTTON used family trusts
    Negative gearing and discounted capital gains as the crooked legs of the rickety
    Stool to at least partially make his fortune
    2. His official job was that of being a politican but backed by the security of that income he litterly grew his fortune.
    3. What was his real aim to accumulate or public service?
    4.has he distanced himself from the average Australian so he does not have enough empathy,?
    5.transparency/ conflict of interests
    The more you have the more you have a conflict or potential conflict of interest.
    6. Will his ministers be prevented from owning or trading in shares?
    7. Will he support dismantling the rickety stool? If not why not?

  31. @mick almost every australian owns shares if not in their personal portfolio thein super funds do. he built his fortune long before parliament youve got to wonder why has it taken 20 years for labor to start complaining. the answer they are desperate to hold on to power and throwing mud hoping it will stick

  32. Sounds like Dutton either cashed out or placed his assets in a Trust once he became leader. Howard did the same in 1995.
    Meanwhile, Albo continuers to wing it, with the tacit support of the Media.

  33. He saw an opportunity to speculate and did so….the main chance. This sugges5s an attitude unsuitable for a good politican intested in public service.
    His excessive wealth puts him in a ivory tower way above mere people.
    Points 5.6.7 are the most important accountability transparency and policy change

  34. I have not accused Dutton of being.a crook at any stage re shares or his previous property empire.
    But I have raised other issues.

  35. Is it an issue if it is not illegal or at least highly dodgy? And he was in opposition as well. Isn’t his wife a businesswoman as well. Kevin Rudd was wealthy through Therese making the money. And there was 9 years afterwards of him being a senior minister – why wasn’t it dredged up then? If it is based on declarations then it would all been there to see then. Coming up now just seems a bit ‘cute’ or lets throw some mud and see if any sticks.

  36. If anything property is one of the more transparent ways a politician can earn investment money. I don’t think we can expect our politicians to be sort of financial monk but neither can they have their snout in the trough and there is no suggestion of that.

  37. Both Bob Hawke and Paul Keating were able to buy very substantial houses on moving out of The Lodge. Both came from pretty humble backgrounds so they must have done some investing on the way.

  38. Regarding Dutton’s property portfolio, I’m sure many people have known this for a while. When he first became the opposition leader, I heard he bought his first home at 19.

    I hear that most politicians own at least one investment property. It’s not surprising given the average age and their salaries that they can afford one.

    There are would-be first-home buyers or older gen-X or boomer parents with young adult children who are concerned about housing security. They are probably doubtful of the major parties’ policies to help them buy their first home and may feel let down by those in the political class. In this case, Dutton would be included as he is a major party leader and was in government for most of the past 25 years. People have known about unaffordable housing forever. There’s disillusion out there over who has that will make housing affordable in the long term.

  39. If Ellie Smith is running as the Integrity candidate in Dickson, then who knows how it plays out? Dickson has a large Labor demographic, let’s say Dutts made $200 grand in a month back in 2008, that won’t play well with Low Information Voters.

  40. Unless a large number of people of moved into Dickson in the past 3 years I doubt Dutton loses. The people of Dickson know what he is like so none of this should be news to them

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