Dickson – Australia 2025

They may not make the 2 party preferred, but their preference may flow from former liberal voters to labor. I don’t think labor would win, and that the liberals should increase their primary vote, but this could make Dutton more vulnerable.

I should add that people should see Casey 2022 for an example. The liberals still won, but Labor came closer than they otherwise may have.

@darcy Dutton will increase his margin and the next qld redistribution will be favourable towards him in that it will likely trim the southern parts off his seat in exchange for more favourable territory

There were other factors in play in Casey that won’t repeat. It doesn’t matter if you win by 1 vote or 1000 winnings winning.

Dickson in the “nothing ever happens” column while Dutton’s around. (I live here.) What was characteristic swingy mortgage belt 20 years ago is settling down into close-to-retirement homeowners (still a decent bit of mortgage belt too!)

According to most betting agencies the odds of Dutton winning the election have shortened for the coalition. Dutton must be thanking albo for all his help

It is hard to see Peter Dutton losing any LNP voters in Dickson. He is such a known quantity. If they were going to go they would have gone a long time before now. Any minor group will just cannibalise the Labor and Greens votes and provide opportunities for preference leakage to the LNP.

Dutton should increase his margin easily. If they can’t beat him in a good year how they gonna him.now

Peter Dutton is such a known quantity. And as well as this, Dickson is also a known quantity in terms of demographics too. It’s an established division where there hasn’t been as much new development or population-change relative to the rest of Queensland. The exception being Dickson’s dense southern-end with plenty of renters. In other words, most of Dickson’s constituents have largely remained in Dickson for the majority of Dutton’s stint in Dickson. For these reasons too, Dickson is unlikely to change in the near future.

Will qld election help dutton here? Some of Steven miles seat is within dickson.

Yes the stronger Labor voting areas of Dickson are in the state seat of Murrumba but Dutton won’t have a problem here, he will win this fairly easily, about a 4% swing his way

The Queensland election results mean nothing here. It is a different contest Dutton has been mp for over 20 years. In his absence the seat would have shifted mp at least a couple of times.even if Labor polled 50% 2pp I would expect Dutton to hang on.
He will not shift seats as this could well mean his seat here would be lost to the alp

This seat doesn’t seem to be a natural fit for a politician like Dutton but at the same time it’s a pretty standard looking Liberal leaning marginal. If we’re expecting Labor to go backwards next election so if that’s the case he’s not in danger of losing it.

The next redistribution will trim off the southern labor voting parts so that should shore up the seat for the libs

@Darth Vader though that puts Longman at risk.

@np
What would Longman Petrie and Dickson be on state results last week

@Nimalan I’ll wait on the full results for a complete TPP count but I presume that Dickson and Longman would be Labor seats while Petrie would probably be an LNP seat but I’ll have to have a look at that. However, that doesn’t mean they will fall since many Queenslanders vote Labor on the state level (especially when they’re in government) but LNP federally except in landslides (e.g 2012 or what 2024 could’ve been like if it were held as early as early September).

Actually Petrie could go either ways on state results. Having a look at the primaries in a couple of the Bancroft, Murrumba, Sandgate and even Aspley booths in Petrie it actually is starting to look like a Labor seat. But the LNP got 53.0% TPP in Redcliffe which makes it closer. Bonner would also be close.

Dickson would actually be close too I think since it has the most conservative parts of Everton in it.

Agree Nether Portal
I dont see Labor picking up in 2025. I expect Dutton to overperform Crisafulli in the Moreton Bay region and Outer Brisbane but under perform in more CALD and Inner Affluent Brisbane.

Also I should note that I don’t think terms like “Abbott-Shorten-Morrison seats” are helpful because it appears to imply that those voters want the Coalition to be further to the right and not moderate and it also implies that Shorten is more conservative than Turnbull (which he isn’t economically, but on social issues they are basically the same with Shorten skewing more to the left than Turnbull).

Albo is a progressive and won’t appeal well to the working-class battlers of Caboolture or Moreton Bay. Similarly, Dutton won’t appeal well to the better educated moderates in Fig Tree Pocket (which will still probably vote LNP, it did last time).

Now this made me come up with an idea with the US election coming up: what if Donald Trump was Australian? Which seats would he win? Would he win any states? Curious for any thoughts. Personally I think he would only win safe Coalition seats and only would win states if the economy was bad.

@ Nether Portal
Largely agree with you just a few points.
I agree Albo does not really appeal to the White Battlers of the Moreton Bay Region. It is also not a small l liberal area. However, the question if if Labor someday had a more right wing Labor leader like Jim Chalmers or Peter Malinukas (shifting to Federal politics) could they win it. I think in a seat like this Labor will need someone who is seen a family man, somewhat church going, someone who loves Sport, Australia Day BBQs etc . Kevin Rudd appealed to the ASM electorates.

@Nimalan I agree with most of that except the churchgoing bit since most people aren’t that religious.

To Answer your second question-What if there was a Australian Donald Trump
1. I think it will be similar to the demographic that votes One Nation (Older, Self-employed, asset owning etc)
2. More likely to do better when there is gloom about Australia’s future.
3.More likely to better in QLD, Tasmania due to population spread and lower diversity.
4. At a Federal Level QLD potentially loose Bonner but pick up Blair NSW loose Banks, Teal seat and make even Mitchell and Berowra marginal. Potential pick ups (Hunter, Paterson and Dobell). Shortland probably not though. Hughes, Lindsay and Cook should be fine though
5. Greater Melbourne loose Deakin, Aston and Menzies. Only hold Flinders, La Trobe (narrowly) and Casey. Can hold all regional seats currently held but no gains.
6. South Australia-loose Sturt only hold Grey and Barker nothing else.
7. WA-may gain Hasluck, Pearce depending on economic circumstances. Unable to win Curtin, Swan,
Tangney, Freemantle, Burt, Brand,Cowan and Perth. Moore, Canning and Bullwinkle should be fine for an Australian Trump
8 Australian trump can win Lyons, Bass and Braddon but not Clark or Franklin
9. Importantly it will not only be small l liberal seats lost but also CALD middle class areas such as Aston, Mitchell, Menzies etc. Mitchell and Berowra have a big margin so will not fall but will underperform as these areas are quite educated. For example Trump has been doing badly in suburban Texas and Atlanta

@ NP
Fair point. Jim Chalmers, Peter Malinunkas and Chris Minns are somewhat Christian compared to Albo. They also represent more middle class/working class electorates compared to trendy Grayndler. I also think it depends on whether Labor has an economic narrative. In 2007, Labor was able to appeal to his demographic by attacking Work Choices in 2022 they really did have an issue like this to help in such seats.

@Nimalan I do wonder how well Trump and Harris will do in Miami, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta and Orlando in a few days time and in the future, plus how well the Conservatives in the UK will do with their new, more conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

@ NP
I would put Miami and Orlando in a different category to suburban Houston, Dallas and Atlanta. The Florida cities you mentioned are more tourism based and have an older population. The latter 3 cities are rapidly growing have a large Asian American population, a lot of STEM jobs etc i would compare it to the Hills District a Centre Right area that is affluent both areas are known for McMansions, an aspiration demographic and New Money. There is younger familes in those cities. While i expect Trump to still win Texas and maybe Georgia i still think he will underperfom what John McCain and Mitt Romney achieved. I think UK politics are still too early to tell it is 5 year term and depends on the economic circumstances at the time.

There is definitely the possibility of an Australian Trump, but a couple of things mitigate against it.

1. The Trump (and Brexit/Farage phenomenon) is based very much around a lot of old industrial cities that are now in decline. But in both of those cases (esp. the US) these cities/towns are quite isolated from the rest of the state or country. We are probably further along the deindustrialisation path, but our relatively high minimum wage and high proportion of population in the major cities mitigates the sheer despair of the US.
2. Not having a popular election, instead having 161 (?) small elections, makes it much harder. Note that Trump can’t even get Trumpy Republicans elected down ballot. One of the problems rightish populist parties here have is very poor candidates. To use a UK example I think Farage was quite happy to only get a handful of seats for Reform this time around, giving them a chance to build the party in the meantime. 25-30 seats would have given them a headache trying to rein in their version of the weird and wonderful ON senators.

However, it should be noted that despite what you think of Trump he comes across a lot brighter than our closest option in Pauline Hanson, and the two ON people who did/do try to give a more polished veneer also come across as slimy and technocratic. Give Trump his due, he is funny and able to connect with people in a way that is very seductive. Mark Latham is probably our closest example but he has too much political baggage to even hope at creating a national movement.

I have additional points here regarding how would Australia has an equivalent Trump fare
1) Trump behaviour such as felonies, insurrection and denial of the election results would be a red line for the Australian Electorate so I would expect Independents doing well and potentially taking some rural seats given Independents already are doing well in the last election in some regional Conservative seats such as Nicholls

2) Australia has a ‘tall poppy syndrome’ meaning people don’t like people with big ego’s as well as almost no one in Australia takes politics as a cult of personality. America and Europe on the other hand tends to value politics in their lives

@ MLV
Good analysis. I especilaly agree with your First point. Population spread is important which is why i think QLD and Tasmania are probably the best bets. I think having old industrial towns that are are isolated from major cities like you correctly said are needed for an Australian trump. I think places like Mackay, Rockhamption, Northern Tasmania are the best example of Trump/ Brexit country. There have seen industrial decline but at the same time have an older demographic including families that have been there for generations. This is different from places like St Albans, Broadmeadows and Dandenong which have a lot of recent refugees, renters etc so are not areas where an Australian Trump could appeal to.

Agree Marh and Nimalan, a polarising figure such as Trump or Nigel Farage would not attract much support in Australia. Even figures like Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer whilst still having populist ideals displayed a ‘softer’, more friendly personality that appealed better to the Australian culture where people are put off by arrogant, egotistical behaviour.

This FriendlyJordies video pretty much sums up Dutton https://youtu.be/arvIFNY4V5s?si=fbf8DvtGx3MV0jMn

@Caleb I wouldn’t trust FriendlyJordies if I was paid too. His content is extremely biased towards Labor. He claims to be anti-corruption but fails to acknowledge the corruption on his own side, in fact Labor has probably had more corruption scandals than the Coalition or any other party (likely because of their strong connection to trade unions, whereas the Coalition doesn’t have any entities that are as close to them as unions are to Labor).

He’s a tankie.

Np: maybe some people in the alp are corrupt but overall they are not. both the alp and the actual try to run a ” broad” church. You are right that the trade unions are an integral part of the alp. The alp was formed about 1900 as a way of changing laws which were rigged against them. Eddie Obeids corruption had nothing to do with a trade union.

@Mick Quinlivan correct, in fact no political party is majority corrupt. However, corruption has been more prevalent in the Labor Party than in other parties and it could be due to trade unionism being an integral part of the party. The Nationals are mostly supported by farmers and rural people but they are individuals not entities. The Liberals are traditionally supported by businesses which are entities but are not as integral to the party as unions are to Labor and not all businesses support or even donate to the Liberal Party.

If you look at NSW, it’s clear that NSW Labor have been much more corrupt than the NSW Coalition or minor parties such as the NSW Greens or One Nation NSW.

What Jordan Shanks (FriendlyJordies) fails to do is point out this stuff when it’s done by people he supports. A real anti-corruption advocate would’ve criticised the corruption in the aging Labor government NSW had from 1995 until 2011, mostly in relation to Premier Kristina Keneally and of course to a greater extent Eddie Obeid and his factional allies. A real anti-corruption advocate, even if he/she was a Labor man/woman all his/her life would’ve endorsed and voted for the Coalition at that election. But he didn’t.

Then later he decided to focus on corruption that Darryl Maguire did during the NSW Coalition’s period of government from 2011 until 2023. He is right to criticise him for being corrupt, but it shouldn’t be one-sided and he shouldn’t have blamed Gladys Berejiklian for what happened as it’s not her fault. Yes she did some things that she’s apologised for but even Chris Minns said she was still a good person and a great Premier (Minns even described her handling of COVID as “excellent”). And the people of NSW still love her, as evident by polling. Maguire was a monster just like Obeid, except less corrupt and more controlling. He thought he could control Gladys, which is such a misogynistic idea.

Agree NP, I believe Berejiklian was simply caught in the crossfire as a close associate of Darryl Maguire. She was not involved with any of his past dealings, so she was cleared by the ICAC investigation.

Gladys needed to be seen to be beyond corruption in she should have immediately disclosed her relationship with Mr Macguire at the time he started to be in trouble from icac and arranged for someone else other than herself to deal with matters regarding him eg Deputy liberal leader
Balliro Was the Eddie Obeid of the Nats. . He should nor have been elected to parliament.
Take matters back further alp govt 1941 to 65. Asking govt 1965 to 1976 and you will find lots of corruption.

In 2022.. I did a study of what the Morrison govt did and decided they were possibly the most corrupt govt in my knowledge. I won’t rehash all the issues because they are well known. The federal icac is now In existence and i am hopeful they can improve the accountability of all govts and their reach can be extended by a future government.

Minor parties such as office one nation and the greens are not in govt for the most part so their opportunity for corruption are not there

@Mick Quinlivan that’s what I meant she should’ve disclosed it but I understand why she didn’t. You have to understand that (and women have told me this) when a weaker person (a woman or child) is being mistreated and abused by a stronger person (a man) then sometimes they don’t talk about it out of fear. This is why rape victims often open up about rape cases years after it happened. As the leaked phone calls show, Daryl Maguire was a chauvinist who wanted power over his then-partner (who happened to be an elected official who held the most important office in the state, the Premier). I would say the same thing if this was a Labor scandal by the way.

@Nimalan could you please provide the list of booths in this seat?

@ NP
Sure will do shortly 🙂

@Nimalan thanks.

@ NP
State seats
1. All of Pine Rivers
2. Parts of Everton, Kurwongbah, Murrumba, small part of Ferny Grove (Ferny Hills)
Booths/Suburbs
1. Albany Creek
2. Albany Hills
3. Arana Hills
4. Bray Park
5. Bridgeman Downs (external) booths
6. Closeburn
7. Dayboro
8. Easton Hills
9. Everton Hills
10. Ferny Hills
11. Grovely (external booth)
12. Kurwongbah
13. Lawnyon
14. McDowall (external)
15. Mount Nebo
16. Murrumba Downs
17. Petrie
18. Samford
19. Strathpine
20. Warner

@Nimalan thanks.

State TPP here (2024):

* Labor: 52.0%
* LNP: 48.0%

Labor only did 3.7% better here on the state level than on the federal level, which is much less than the 7-8% differences seen in other Moreton Bay seats. Perhaps this could be from Peter Dutton’s unpopularity, as this was the second-closest seat in Queensland in 2022 (the closest was technically Brisbane, had a few more votes/preferences gone to Labor instead of the Greens then Labor would’ve won it).

This is the perfect example of why state and federal elections are different contests.

The topic of a Trump in Australia is an interesting one. Regarding Trumpism and the Brexit/Farage movement, I’d like to add that there are economic differences as to why neither has taken off to the extent that they have in US and UK.

1. Australia doesn’t have a large rust belt with medium or large cities that are seeing outflows of people, are in disrepair with boarded-up homes, empty High Streets or Main Streets and have high levels of inequality and unemployment and poverty. Historically, manufacturing in Australia was mainly in capital cities or now-gentrified regional cities like Newcastle, Wollongong or Geelong.

2. USA and UK were once manufacturing powerhouses with large-scale high-end manufacturing such as cars, defence equipment, electrical goods and pharmaceuticals. Manufacturing of high-end goods are a source of national pride. USA and UK also house the headquarters of global manufacturing companies (e.g. Ford, GM, various steel companies) and many of them either outsourced jobs or hired non-citizens.

Trump and Farage offered their followers hope that they could bring back the glory of local manufacturing following perceived betrayal. Because of their diversity of their manufacturing base, economies of scale, closeness to large markets and the home of HQs, there is more hope of reviving manufacturing there than in Australia.

3. Australia has been more reliant on primary industries and more recently, services, like international education. We are also more reliant on trade and way more reliant on China than every other Western country. Since our economy is small, putting tariffs on goods would do more harm than good. China can put retaliatory tariffs, and can find economic partners in Asia and Africa for exports similar to ours. China could stop all tourists coming to Australia in an instant if they wanted to.

I’m not saying Australia won’t have a Trump or anti-establishment backlash. I’ve thought of it as possible ever since his first election win. My point is that it hasn’t taken off as fast here.

@ NP
While Dickson is not really a small l liberal seat/tealish. It is a classic marginal seat. It is more affluent than Petrie/Longman and subject to boundaries often better for the Libs than the previously mentioned seat. It maybe the case that even here Dutton is just more polarising and some centrist voters who if they lived in Petrie/Longman would have voted Liberal decided to vote for Labor here.

@ Votante
Australia runs a trade surplus with most countries especially China given we have a smaller economy. It will be silly to start a trade war or adopt economic nationalism. In fact it will be National Party seats that will be furious if any government decided to start one. The Rust belt in the USA has seen population decline. West Virginia is shrinking in population while parts of the Hunter Valley especially around Maitland are rapidly growing in population with new housing estates. Maybe the closest to a Rust belt city could be Gladstone, QLD or Whyalla, SA.