Dickson – Australia 2025

This didn’t hurt Labor at all in Boothby in 2022

The 130k is a diversion and an effort to ignite the local vollies and force the Liberals to try and defend a seat they are likely safe in. Dutton has nothing to worry about except for the rest of the country where he is most definitely behind

I’ll just pop in here and add some anecdotal information.
While I don’t live in Dickson, I am based in Ryan and I work across large parts of Dickson six days a week for nearly 14 years. From what I’ve seen on the ground, this is by far the election with the most varied party signage—and the least presence of the usual “solid wall” of Dutton.

Daily Telegraph is reporting three polls:

Freshwater (Lib Internal) has it at 43-57 to Dutton

ALP Internal is 50-50

uComms (Teal Internal) 51.7-48.3 to Ali France

Doesn’t look that safe to me.

I feel like the impression Dutton would easily boost his margin here was due to him steadily increasing his approval rating and viability as alternative PM over about 2.5 years since becoming opposition leader.

But as his approval rating has rapidly deteriorated since the campaign began, and he & the Liberals have made so many missteps, and today’s YouGov poll even has a primary vote swing against the Coalition larger than Dutton’s margin here, there’s every chance that the prospect of him being PM actually hinders rather than helps his odds at holding his own seat.

He’s clearly still the favourite to hold and I’d predict a Dutton win, but I’d say the seat is very much in play now, whereas 2 months ago I would have said it wasn’t.

The chances of Dutton losing have increased but he must still be in the box
Seat

The overall sense that Dutton will lose here doesn’t feel compelling enough. Yes him and some of his candidates have made some serious missteps that I’d say has ended hopes of a Coalition victory this year, but in Dickson I wouldn’t say he’s offensive to the community. He’s a known-quantity, and his position as Opposition Leader should give him enough profile to hang on here, and I expect a swing to him.

I understand why Labor would be trying hard here, but I get the vibes they should look elsewhere. Brisbane seats like Bonner and Brisbane feel more winnable and have lower-profile MPs in comparison to Dutton who is well-known. The fact they are diverting $130k here is really interesting as you would expect they would want to sandbag marginals like Blair that the LNP have eyes on.

Another point: David Crisafulli could be an interesting factor: last I heard in a poll he was the most popular Premier in the country. And the last opinion poll for the federal election had it 56-44 to the LNP. If he still has the halo around him from the election and Cyclone Alfred, campaigning with Dutton would seal a win here IMO. I think the swing to the LNP here could be either from <1% to up to 5%. Eitherway he should hold with a swing.

I also think Dutton will hold, unfortunately.

The best chance for him to have been punted was in 2022 along with Frydenberg who did lose his blue ribbon seat. A potential sliding door moment if that happened and the Liberals were deprived of their leadership contenders post-Scomo.

The demographics and Dutton’s profile over the past 24 years will help him, but equally the said factors that have been mentioned to ad nauseam (e.g. the cyclone and fundraiser) could trip him up. He’ll hold on but don’t be surprised if his margin doesn’t increase by much.

I think Dutton is in trouble here. The ALP internal polling is 50-50.

I’d say that he will retain but this isn’t a sure bet at all. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a swing against him because the ALP has made serious headway in Brisbane with the recent polling.

Whether he gets a swing against or towards him will depend on how badly the LNP go nationally as well. The polling nationwide is increasingly looking like the expected seats that the LNP a month ago were 100% confident they’d gain like Gilmore, Patterson, Bennelong, Robertson in NSW, McEwen, Dunkley, and Aston in VIC, and Bulwinkel in WA are now looking increasingly like Labor retains.

The LNP nationwide is in serious strife. The ALP is now polling better than they did at the 2022 federal election which shows how much distractions like the WFH backflip, the public sector job cuts and a now disendorsed candidate in Whitlam who has been exposed as a far right sympathiser has really hurt the LNP’s standing with moderate swing voters.

The LNP considering withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is political suicide as well. It’s as if the LNP learned none of their lessons from 2022.

News.com.au reporting on a Ucomms seat poll with ALP ahead 52-48. Don’t really believe it given he has a higher profile as opposition leader but I guess gives credence to Labor putting more resources into the seat

Part of me says Dutton is a marginal seat master, and will hang on in the same way he has hung on in the past.

Part of me is preparing the popcorn for election night.

AB, I am not sure if the LNP saw what happened with Trump in the US and thought maybe it would work here.

The basic problem is that Australia is nowhere near as conservative as the US. The country is more urbanised and tertiary educated voters make up a larger proportion of the population. Also, compulsory voting helps provide a moderating influence so a far right, culture war type message is unlikely to resonate well.

Finally, Australians are known for being ‘modest’ in general. Most people value honesty and do not take kindly to a ‘bravado’ type attitude that Trump and his backers are offering. That is probably why Trump is not popular in the country overall, even amongst Liberal/Coalition voters. Only the hardcore conservatives who vote for fringe right parties like Palmer United and One Nation strongly support Trump.

AB23- internal polling of any party released before the election is worthless-its only disclosed in an atemptent to influence voters.The much more accurate polls are the ones we learn about after the election.

The LNP seem to be getting caught out by two things:

– the Trump uncertainty – leaving aside any Trump policy comparisons. Potential uncertainty – economic, national security – plays into the hand of an incumbent government.
– lack of policy – the backflips this week show that there has been little policy formulation – and it is all a bit on the fly.

Labor are looking more like being reelected – it might turn out to be a curse for them as I do not recall an election in my memory where there has been so little enthusiasm except may be 2010. I have had a thought for a while that Dutton would not mind a close but respectable loss so that he can rework the team – it is painfully shallow at present.

The Trumpets are very Trump exposed as they have gone full ‘ Trump’. They have nowhere to go as it is pretty obvious that there is a general loathing for all things ‘trump’ right across the community.

No one is talking about the very effective grassroots campaign by the Independent candidate Ellie Smith. Her preferences could be a critical influence on the outcome of such small margins.

The sample of the poll was 3500 people from Ucomms, this electorate has a long history of being close particularly in the last 3 elections. Dickson was held by Labor in 1998 and would have been held by Labor on these boundaries in 2007, so maybe with effort Labor is putting they could peal this seat off the LNP. This will be very interesting to watch on election night.

@AB23 I don’t think scrapping the Paris agreement is political suicide – in fact it might be a game changer even at this late stage. I know amongst a certain set of Guardian readers it is an article of faith that everyone thinks it is great, but all around the world opponents of net zero etc are gaining ground.
Again, I don’t think saving 41k Canberra public servants is a big win for Labor. What is a big win for Labor was the WFH policy, which was designed for those Canberra PS but didn’t take a political genius to make people think Dutton was coming for your WFH. That and the cyclone allowing Albo to look Prime Ministerial again and Dutton coming under some pressure, which was the opposite of where we were in January/February.

About the $130K Labor spend here, I think the end goal isn’t to get Ali France elected but rather it’s more to do with mind games and giving them a scare or to show strength. If it’s in play, Dutton and the LNP would have to shift attention back home and away from ‘must-win’ electorates elsewhere.

What I reckon will help Dutton are the: likely swings to LNP in the outer suburbs (which would extend to Dickson), the reversal of the anti-Morrison vote, the splitting of the non-LNP vote (teal and Labor) and the loss of the UAP vote. I think many UAP and PHON voters would vote tactically to prevent Ellie Smith or Ali France from winning.

The most ideal times for Labor to remove Dutton were in 2007 and 2022 and he managed to hang on both times.

@Yoh An, agree that real reason why Trump will be very unpopular in Australia is because the Australian Society just does not like anyone with a big egos which applies to anyone from the top job to the bottom (aka. Tall Poppy Syndrome) which encourages Australians to stay modest.
This why it is harder for Political Revolutions (such as mass protest) to gain traction in Australia (even if they are significant issues) unlike what use see in US (with Black Lives Matter) or France (with Yellow Vest Movement) and because compulsory voting alongside majority of the population only supporting modesty, a person uninterested in politics gets more political sway than someone who is politically vocal.

@votante Ellie Smith won’t make the count..like grayndler swinging to the greens when Albo is gone this will probably go labor once Dutton is gone

@Ek April 11, 2025 at 7:27 pm
Can’t see how Ellie Smith could preference Labor over Dutton and draw many Liberal voters.
If Labor, Greens and the Non Teal Indies put Smith over Dutton, she could preference Dutton above Labor and win from 2nd on the 2CP.

I don’t think Ellie Smith will crack the 2CP either.

Generally teals and in general, many centrist independents, run open tickets (HTV card just shows where to put the number 1) and don’t show preference for either major party. This is partly to avoid acusations of being partisan.

Tanya Plibersek door knocking in Dickson today

@Votante :
*Generally teals and in general, many centrist independents, …*
They may be correct, but I don’t think candidates who want to shut down all Electricity generation apart from renewables can seriously be described as centrist independents.
Radical independents, yeah, that’s more appropriate. Anyway, i’m seeing Ellie Smith as having a better chance than Ali France because the pattern last time was Dutton was elected by independent and Greens preferences which were low on the ballot but ranked above Ali France.
Ellie Smith doesn’t have Ali France’s baggage from 2 prior campaigns plus she should get the vast majority of France’s preferences. Just a matter of her drawing enough PVs. Here’s what the ballot will look like:
QLD
Dickson
1. Suniti HEWETT
Family First Party Australia
2. Ali FRANCE
Australian Labor Party (State of Queensland)
3. Vinnie BATTEN
Queensland Greens
4. Joel STEVENSON
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
5. Peter DUTTON
Liberal National Party of Queensland
6. Michael JESSOP
Trumpet of Patriots
7. Ellie SMITH
Independent
8. David ZALOUDEK
Legalise Cannabis Australia
9. Maureen BROHMAN
Animal Justice Party
Imo, it’s feasible Smith is stll there after Family First, LCA, TOP and AJP are excluded, which might put her ahead of PHON if there’s enough tactical voting helping her, which then excludes The Greens and Ali France. Should that happen, then Smith has cut Dutton’s preference flow off at the pass and she’s the new MP.

Gympie, you know that I’ve posted the candidate lists on every seat already?

Wasn’t Michael (Mike) Jessop the candidate that caused Steven Miles to be evacuated from a polling place in Caloundra in the 2024 state election?

Have to feel for Dickson voters who were looking forward to putting Dutton absolute last on their ballot paper.

@Gympie. Teal or Voices independents who won or came second last election (e.g. Calare, Bradfield) did so in electorates that historically had a low Labor primary vote (often times <20%). The teals entered the top wo or won because Greens and Labor voters voted tactically where teals were seen as competitive. This is in conjunction with coalition voters who switched to the teal.

The Labor primary vote in Dickson was above 30% in 2019 and 2022. The difference between Ali France and Labor candidates in most teal seats or seats with teals who finished second last time is that Ali France is seen as competitive and she came somewhat close last time. She's at least trying.

I mentioned earlier that teals in marginal LNP vs ALP seats split the progressive or non-LNP vote. Teal voters’ preferences will not be distributed completely to Labor.

This is a traditional marginal seat suspect the alp and liberal votes will be too high for a teal to win

@Votante *Teal voters’ preferences will not be distributed completely to Labor.*
Afaik, no Teal votes were distributed in 2022, they all made the 2CP.
Leaving aside tactical voting, what is a Teals voter? Is it protesting against the Liberal Party, but still wants the Liberal candidate to win and has preferenced them #2, without expecting them to make 2CP?
We’ll find out more on May 3, my prediction is all the current Teals will be booted, apart from Spender, another round of Teals to win Bradfield, Cowper, McPherson, Dickson.
Basically, it’s harvesting the Liberal voting women’s protest vote and many LP and NP seats have the potential to elect a Teal, but probably only once, imo.

@Mick:
A Teal only has to be presentable with no history of having been a raging Leftie. If the base Teal voter preferences LNP over Labor/Greens, which, while unstated on the HTV, is who they’re pitching to, then it doesn’t help Labor at all if the Teal is excluded first. If the Teal can be boosted into the 2CP by a spot of tactical voting, then there’s a big chunk of LNP votes that won’t be distributed [to Dutton, in this instance]..
Never forget the Labor motto: Whatever it takes [to keep the Liberals short of 76 seats]

We know how teal votes would have been distributed because they do a 2PP count. I did a blog post about this recently.

To win you need 25% plus of the vote
Then collect the preferences of s major
Party…. aka Fowler.
A teal to win here needs to outpoll.I presume Labor and then use their preferences.
For Dutton not to make the 2cp.is very unlikely…nah impossible

@Mick
No, Susie Holt in Groom only polled half the ALP PV, but still finished in the 2CP in 2022. LNP member there had a 9.62% swing against, Holt received 8.26% PV. Dutton on 43% couldn’t survive a 9.26% swing if Ellie Smith made the 2 CP, and he hasn’t been tested against a Teal previously.
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-164.htm

We are exactly halfway through the campaign 2.5 weeks to go

Prepoll opens next Tuesday. There isn’t much time with Easter coming up and also Anzac Day and Labour Day in QLD before election day.

@Gympie, I want to add to Ben’s analysis about the distribution of teal preferences. I read in the Australian Election Study of 2022 that most teal voters voted Labor or Green in 2019. They voted tactically. I recall that in seats e.g. Hughes, Flinders where teals came third or behind, most teal votes favoured Labor over Liberal.

Most teal voters having been previous Labor or Greens voters doesn’t mean that they are voting tactically, although there is certainly some segment who are. But I would expect 80%+ of those voters are switching from genuinely being more interested/aligned with the independent.

The issue for decision makers in both the LNP and the ALP is increasingly about whether ‘the other’ is better or worse than a non-major e.g. a. would the LNP prefer Independent Ellie Smith over ALP (or is their HTV merely showing that to dissuade ALP voters from preferencing her?); b. would the ALP prefer Independent Ellie Smith over LNP (I haven’t seen their HTV yet – and, even then, what is their strategy?).

How strong is the Dump Dutton campaign – including within the LNP?

While I would always bet on Dutton keeping this seat (I remember the ABC election computer prematurely calling Dutton as losing in 2022) – wandering around Strathpine the other day, the effort and money being spent to dethrone Dutton is very clear. Lots of campaigners and volunteers for Labor, Smith and community groups out and about. Including someone in a Dutton mascot costume. I’ve never actually known Strathpine to be so lively on a Tuesday 😂

If it’s a psyop, it’s a good one. I know Dutton will retain the seat, but it doesn’t feel like it.