LNP 1.7%
Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.
Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.
Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.
Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.
Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since.
Peter Dutton has held his seat ever since. He served as a junior minister in the final term of the Howard government and as a senior minister in the Coalition government from 2013 until 2022. After the Coalition’s defeat at the 2022 election, he was elected as leader of the opposition.
Assessment
Dickson is quite a marginal seat and it is worth watching. Labor did quite poorly in Queensland in 2022 compared to other states. If they benefit from incumbency they could pick up a substantial amount of ground in Queensland.
It’s also worth noting that Dutton has increased his profile now as leader of his party, which will probably improve his position in his local seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 41,657 | 42.1 | -3.9 |
| Ali France | Labor | 31,396 | 31.7 | +0.4 |
| Vinnie Batten | Greens | 12,871 | 13.0 | +3.0 |
| Tamera Gibson | One Nation | 5,312 | 5.4 | +0.2 |
| Alina Karen Ward | United Australia | 2,717 | 2.7 | +0.5 |
| Alan Buchbach | Independent | 2,222 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Thor Prohaska | Independent | 1,618 | 1.6 | -0.7 |
| Lloyd Russell | Liberal Democrats | 1,236 | 1.2 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 3,996 | 3.9 | -0.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 51,196 | 51.7 | -2.9 |
| Ali France | Labor | 47,833 | 48.3 | +2.9 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-east (51.1%) and the west (54.7%), as well as on the pre-poll and other votes. Labor won 52.5% in the north-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.2% in the north-east to 18% in the west, but just 11.7% on the pre-poll.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 13.2 | 47.5 | 16,958 | 17.1 |
| South-East | 15.8 | 51.1 | 14,310 | 14.5 |
| West | 18.0 | 54.7 | 4,621 | 4.7 |
| Pre-poll | 11.7 | 52.3 | 38,111 | 38.5 |
| Other votes | 12.4 | 53.4 | 25,029 | 25.3 |
Election results in Dickson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:
* 66% of Everton
* 31% of Ferny Grove
* 45% of Kurwongbah
* 44% of Murrumba
* 100% of Pine Rivers
The Liberals released their 80th anniversary ad. Interestingly, they mentioned SSM has one of their achievements.
It will be interesting if they seek to win socially conservative voters on LGBT issues. However, this ad suggests the opposite.
“On current voting intentions, there’s an 82 per cent probability the Coalition would have the most seats in the lower house, winning between 64-78 seats, compared with 59-71 for Labor,, according to Accent Research principal Dr Shaun Ratcliff.”
“‘We estimate there is a 98 per cent chance of a minority government, and slightly less than a two per cent chance of a Coalition majority,’ Dr Ratfliff told the publication.”
“‘The probability of a Labor majority is now approaching zero.'”
“The seats the Coalition are set to snatch from Labor are Macarthur, Robertson, Bennelong, Paterson and Gilmore in NSW and Aston in Victoria, Lingiari in the NT, Lyons in Tasmania and the new seat of Bullwinkel in WA.”
“Seats too close to call are Shortland, Werriwa, Macquarie, Dobell, Reid, Hunter and Mackellar in NSW, Corangamite, Chisholm, Hawke, Casey, McEwen in Victoria, Sturt in South Australia and Curtin in WA.”
“Presently the Coalition is set to comfortably win 42 seats and is ahead in another 22.”
“Labor is likely to win 47 seats comfortably but is ahead in only another 12.”
Also the election must be held by May 17th not May 24th
source https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14160461/Poll-Albanese-Dutton.html
“The Greens are set to land two seats and are leading in two others.” Id sat the two theyd win would be Melbourne and Griffith but unsure on the two leading polls (likely two of the following: Wills, Macnamara, Richmond, Ryan and Brisbane)
“Independents are predicted to win five seats and are ahead in another four.” Id say Wentworth, Warringah, Clark, Kennedy and Mayo are the solids and Fowler, Indi, Kooyong and Goldstein are the aheads.
source https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/pm-anthony-albanese-no-chance-of-winning-majority-at-2025-federal-election-as-peter-dutton-victory-increases-new-poll-suggests/news-story/3f0f9bfc16953febe022e4cc54c4c90a
@john
Dr Radcliffe hasn’t a clue
Macarthur has very little of Camden in it and will remain Labor.
All the first tranche are close except Macarthur
The second Tranche is very
Questionable
It worries me when they talk of percentages… sure it will be difficult for alp majority esp as in 2022 this was a close run thing
@mick yea thats the one that popped out to me too but never say never im waiting for the official poll results to look at them in detail. if anyone finds them please post them.
as for the second lot id agree with most of those being close.
I live in Macarthur and I am proud as punch to say that Labor & Mike Freelander will be re-elected. He’s popular in the electorate, and I am confident the Liberals will put virtually no resources into winning it.
The Liberals won’t win Macarthur. It’s a Campbelltown seat.
@ James, I think Mike Freelander is well respected in the community even by Liberal supporters. Labor would wish they had a popular hard working MP in Werriwa as well. Sometimes popular members can defy swings most recent example in Bundaberg.
@James and @Nimalan agree that Mike Freelander, whilst not a high profile MP, is someone who I can see resonating with the electorate, and being a doctor in the local community can contribute to it too. I can see why he’s popular, given that in 2016 he essentially wiped the incumbent (Russell Matheson) from the seat in one stroke and made Macarthur into a fairly safe seat and has defied the odds in 2019 to keep it. I don’t think he’ll be going anywhere.
Werriwa, I don’t know about Anne Stanley’s contribution to the electorate but she seems like the kind of MP that would toe the party line rather than go out of her way to speak for her community, a contrast from the times when Laurie Ferguson and Mark Latham (lol) represented the seat, not to mention good ol’ Gough Whitlam. However, as low as the margin is right now, I can’t see the Liberals getting to it without winning a large chunk of the Muslim vote, which they won’t be especially after Labor’s broken ranks from America and voted to support recognition of Palestine at the UN which the Liberals have rejected yet again.
@tommoo i think the redistribution had more to do with him winning in 2016 right iout. thats je one seat i dont see happening of that poll. but i still want to see the poll from the source
we are stil waiting for the quarterly newspoll with state breakdowns from last friday too
@Nimalan & @Tommo9 – absolutely. He’s built up a pretty big following, his experience as a paediatrician makes him not only talented but definitely someone who would be approachable with kids/youth. I personally hope he gets a ministry/assistant ministry next election, he is certainly a rising star.
I agree with Werriwa. Before October 7, this seat was almost guaranteed to be a Liberal gain. Anne Stanley is just a typical MP who follows everything her party says. The Liberals can certainly gain this but Palestine will be a hot button issue in multicultural areas around Liverpool. Something that the Liberals will lose votes on.
At this point Sam Kayal needs to be active enough and listen to the views of constituents, not just take in what Dutton says. Ned Mannoun is the Liberal mayor of Liverpool (overlaps with most of Werriwa) and he’s pro-Palestine, look what happened at the council election. Yes the Liverpool Liberals seem to have invested a lot into the area but Mannoun had thumping swings to him in Muslim areas which show his views are greatly appreciated by the community.
@james i agree it seems a lil odd but id like to see the acutal poll first before jumping to conclusions. im hereing that labor are trying to throw resources aat werrriwa so id put it in the possible column
The poll has greens winning Brisbane and Griffith but ahead in Ryan and melbourne.
@Darth Vader did you mean winning Melbourne and Ryan but ahead in Brisbane and Griffith?
No according to the legend that’s what it shows
I also can’t see Labor polling 36% in Richmond it means Justine Elliot would get an 8% bump on last elections results. Given her downward trajectory over the last 20 years I can’t see that happening. I think the MacArthur flipping is a bit of a stretch too.
This element of MRP is what I think can get seats like Melbourne and Macnamara a bit wrong:
“While we expect the model to be
broadly accurate, these estimates may miss idiosyncratic electorates that behave substantially differently from similar divisions.”
Demographically, on paper for example Macnamara looks a lot more like “teal” seats than how it actually votes but that missed local idiosyncrasies where in reality it votes quite differently.
I think the addition of South Yarra to Melbourne has probably done the same with making it appear less safe for the Greens than Brisbane and Griffith, because South Yarra votes quite a bit differently to what it’s demographic profile would suggest, but in reality it would be a lot more safe.
Ok so time to get everyone’s opinions on the upcoming federal election.
Number of Liberal seats?
Number of Labor seats?
Number of Green seats?
Number of Independents?
Most marginal Liberal seat?
Most marginal Labor seat?
Type of Government?
Peter Dutton said that having Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Flags flying alongside the Australian Flag (mainly done in Public Institutions such as schools) is causing division and said personally he opposes to fly the Aboriginal Flag on the Sydney Harbour Bridge (despite the decision was made by the previous NSW Liberal Government).
@Marh hence one reason why I don’t think he’ll win and if he does he’ll be forced out eventually because of poor polling unless he stays to lose in 2028.
Yes Australia voted No and I did too, but Australia has had three officially recognised flags for a long time now.
@marh i also agree with him it should be the australian flag and the nsw flag on the harbour bridge.
@NP, leadership spills is not likely to happen unlike previous years as both parties changed with higher threshold. Liberal Party has a two-thirds threshold to unseat the PM while Labor Party has a 75% threshold to unseat PM or 60% to unseat opposition leader
@John, removing the two flags officially may require a plebiscite due to the 1998 amendment to the Flags Act 1953
@marh yes while that is true it only takes 50% + 1 to change that rule.
@Marh so would Pesutto be safe in Victoria then?
I always say the both the Far Left and Far Right encourage culture wars so they are actually best friends with each others just like when the joined hands to defeat the CPRS. Adam Bandt on one end refuses to stand next to the Australian Flag while Dutton refuses to stand next to Aboriginal Flag they are best friends with each other.