LIB 0.02%
Incumbent MP
Michael Sukkar, since 2013.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. The main suburbs are Donvale, Park Orchards, Ringwood, Croydon, Croydon Hills, Kilsyth South, Warranwood, Forest Hill and Vermont, and parts of Burwood East and Heathmont. The seat covers most of the Maroondah council area, and parts of the Whitehorse and Manningham council areas.
Redistribution
Deakin shifted north-west, gaining Donvale and Park Orchards from Menzies and a small part of Burwood East from Chisholm. Deakin then lost part of Heathmont to Aston. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 0.2% to 0.02%.
History
Deakin was first created in 1937, and has been almost always held by the United Australia Party and Liberal Party.
The seat originally covered rural areas to the east and north-east of Melbourne, until the 1968 redistribution moved the seat into the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, in the same sort of area that the seat covers today.
The seat was first won by the UAP’s William Hutchinson in 1937. Hutchinson had previously held the neighbouring seat of Indi. Hutchinson joined the Liberal Party in 1944 and retired from Parliament at the 1949 election. Frank Davis then held it until 1966, when Alan Jarman won the seat. Jarman was defeated by John Saunderson (ALP) in 1983. Saunderson moved to the new seat of Aston in 1984, when Julian Beale won the seat for the Liberals.
Beale was succeded in 1990 by Ken Aldred. Aldred had previously been elected at the 1983 Bruce by-election and held Bruce until the 1990 redistribution. Aldred was disendorsed before the 1996 election after raising conspiracy theories in Parliament, based on documents supplied by the Citizens Electoral Council. Aldred was later selected by local branches to run in the marginal seat of Holt at the 2007 election before having his preselection vetoed by the state party.
The seat was won in 1996 by Phil Barresi, who held it until his defeat in 2007 by the ALP’s Mike Symon.
Symon held Deakin for two terms, but in 2013 he lost to Liberal candidate Michael Sukkar. Sukkar has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Deakin is the Liberal Party’s most marginal seat in the country, but if there is a swing to the Liberal Party they could retain the seat.
The historical trends here are interesting – two redistributions prior to the 2013 and 2019 made the electorate more favourable to the Liberals, but the recent redistribution only had a minor effect. This means the current boundaries would have been historically more favourable than the boundaries at the time. On the current electoral boundaries, the Liberals would have retained Deakin throughout the 2007-2013 period. But these suburbs are much less strong for the Liberals than it was then. The new boundaries are about 5% better for the Liberals than the statewide 2PP, whereas these areas would’ve outperformed the state by about 7-8% a decade ago.
This clearly indicates that these areas are trending away from the Liberal Party. Deakin could well fall even if other seats go the other way.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michael Sukkar | Liberal | 41,626 | 41.5 | -6.2 | 41.5 |
| Matt Gregg | Labor | 32,844 | 32.8 | +0.4 | 32.9 |
| Rob Humphreys | Greens | 13,904 | 13.9 | +4.6 | 14.2 |
| Bianca Joy Gidley | United Australia | 2,836 | 2.8 | +0.8 | 2.9 |
| Natasha Coughlan | One Nation | 2,306 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Harrison Carr | Liberal Democrats | 1,843 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 2.1 |
| Katherine Dolheguy | Animal Justice | 1,650 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 1.4 |
| Qian Liu | Independent | 1,271 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.0 |
| Samantha Bastin | Federation Party | 909 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.9 |
| Judith Thompson | Hinch’s Justice Party | 1,080 | 1.1 | -2.2 | 0.9 |
| Others | 0.0 | ||||
| Informal | 4,419 | 4.2 | +0.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michael Sukkar | Liberal | 50,322 | 50.2 | -4.5 | 50.02 |
| Matt Gregg | Labor | 49,947 | 49.8 | +4.5 | 49.98 |
Polling places in Deakin have been divided into three parts: central, east and west. The “west” covers those booths in Whitehorse council area.
The Liberal Party won a slim 50.4% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the east while Labor won 52.1% in the centre and 54.8% in the west. The Liberal Party held on narrowly thanks to winning the pre-poll and other votes.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.9% in the east to 17.7% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 15.9 | 45.2 | 21,395 | 19.4 |
| East | 14.9 | 50.4 | 13,067 | 11.9 |
| Central | 17.7 | 47.9 | 12,881 | 11.7 |
| Pre-poll | 13.1 | 50.7 | 37,441 | 34.0 |
| Other votes | 12.1 | 54.0 | 25,317 | 23.0 |
Election results in Deakin at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Peter Dutton here today, I believe in Croydon or Ringwood.
Albanese campaigning in Melbourne today said that he hopes Labor can win Deakin and he is hoping that Michael Sukkar makes more media appearances and does more door knocking to help improve Labor’s chances
this could be a surprise labor gain on the night given the general chat about victoria but with no margin michael sukkar very on the nose, and the LNP swing likely to be more on in other areas of melbourne, i can definitely see an ALP gain. the ALP has a real chance here, i dont feel they do in menzies or aston
Sukkar was in Croydon Main Street on Saturday so the Liberals are clearly worried. Labor has campaign has been putting money in here as well and Matt Gregg was campaigning in Ringwood. There is a scenario where Aston and Menzies flip back to the LNP and Deakin flips to Labor although I’m not prepared to write Labor off in Aston yet.
I remember reading a Tally Room post about how Labor came surprisingly close in Deakin and Menzies in 2022 with little effort. The extra resources and campaigning from both sides this election will make it interesting. I also read that Sukkar isn’t personally popular, in contrast to Wolahan in Menzies. Deakin appears more of a battleground.
Jess Ness has an open ticket and Labor is directing there preferences to Jess Ness in second place.
@ Votante
I live in Menzies Labor put in no effort and on election night i could not believe what i was seeing. In contrast, Deakin had some campaigning in 2022 but not as much as Chisholm or Higgins. Important to remember that 2022 Deakin boundaries were pro-Liberal Labor would not have won it on the 2007 or 2010 results or even the 2018 state results so it was seen a second tier seat rather than first tier like Robertson/Chisholm or Swan. However, as Labor did not pick up any QLD seats, Lindsay or Bass/Braddon in hindsight they probably wished they put more effort especially in Deakin
Michael Sukkar is a formidable campaigner and should not be underestimated. His disadvantage is that he is rather polarising so he has a track record in unpopular causes. Personally I was quite excited to think he was going to go down last time. Generally in the western end of Deakin there are a lot fewer corflutes from both sides. So far nothing in the mailbox from Matt Gregg though the state upper house MPs have been obviously saving their postal allowance until now. Keith Wolohan has been working hard through the term and a lot of corflutes for him have sprung up in the past week or so.
I hope the people of Deakin have watched Sukkar’s performance on Monday night and again on the 7.30 report tonight. What a rude arrogant man ! He treated both commentators disrespect. He refused to answer any questions with facts and talked over anyone else who wanted to speak. He is not fit to be in public office. Vote for anyone else but this rude man.
Sukkar not tolerating hectoring nonsense from left-wing ABC talking heads isn’t ‘rude’ its actually confidence and assertiveness.
I saw that debate last night and it was a mess. Sukkar didn’t come across well at all and refused to answer questions whilst continuously perpetuating lies about the Coalition record on housing.
It certainly wouldn’t have done him any favours in a must-win seat this year. He’ll now have to hope that any community goodwill towards him can get him across the line but even that’s uncertain.
@Nimalan, the results in electorates with a large percentage of ethnic Chinese voters were a surprise for me at least. I thought it solely had to do with strong campaigning in Chisholm, Reid and Bennelong. There was also state and federal Labor’s strength in Victoria, especially east or south of the Yarra River. That helped with results in various electorates including Deakin.
It might be trickier this time since Labor is on the nose in Victoria. Also, Labor is defending seats like Aston, Chisholm, Macnamara and Wills as well as outer suburban ones e.g. Dunkley, McEwan.
@ Votante
Yeah the swing among Chinese Australian voters was responsible for the very low margin in Menzies. Whilst i expected a swing the magnitidue was the million dollar question. Chisholm had a very low margin so it was the bare minimum seat Labor to win even if there was a no foreign policy issues. Labor was in government between 1987-1996 without holding Chisholm but they held other seats like Hughes and Calare then which are not in play these days so to win enough seats for a minority government if they did not win Chisholm they have to go up the pendulumn. Bennelong was a surprise for me as well as it is not usually Labor held. While Reid/Lowe is a bit simmilar to Chisholm in that if they dont win it they need to go up the pendulumn and win a seat like Braddon, Herbert etc to win government. Labor did not need Lowe to win government in 1987 and 1990 but again there were other seats they won then but cannot win now.
Furthermore, i agree with Labor on the defensive in Victoria due to state-based factors they will focus on defending seats they already had before go hunting.
Very bazaar experience in Croydon today, there were 30-40 Liberal supports walking up and down with a speaker blasting music out and handing out bags, it was really odd as Main Street wasn’t that busy and seem to scare more people away.
think this will be an ALP gain