Deakin – Australia 2025

Labor have a real shot of winning here especially if they run a good candidate here.

Communities along the Lilydale/Belgrave Line seems to have moved have a political trend which voted Libs in 2014 State and 2016 Feds but then moved left in 2018 State but Libs slightly recovered in 2019 Feds but moved heavily to the left in 2022 Feds and State. I assume factors for this trend includes
– A large centrist vote who are slightly fiscally conservative but somewhat socially progressive hence I call them the Napthine-Turnbull-Andrews-(50/50 Morrison and Shorten)-Albanese-Andrews Voters. They also seem to mostly supported the Voice and the Republic
– Early Voting somewhat distorts some swings
– Densification near railway stations brought a more progressive and younger voters

@ Marh, i used to think much of Maroondah was like parts of the Shire like Hughes quite Anglo but it seems to be significantly more progressive.

@Nimalan, I think that is more around the Northern parts like Warranwood that is still more like the Sutherland Shire however Ringwood and Ringwood East seems to have gotten lots more medium density developments hence probably explains why it shifted left since 2018.

Ringwood is due to have more apartments added and a lot of the large properties in Croydon have been getting cut up as well.

@ Marh
Good points.
I have sometimes thought the northern fringe like Warranwood, Croydon Hills and Ringwood north which i sometimes refer to as Marooondah Hills is a spillover of Manningham just across the border it looks simmilar Hills, leafy large houses only difference a more Anglo population.

So Labor are running with Matt Gregg again, I guess they’re hoping that with some name recognition that they’ll be able to slightly build upon that.

I really don’t know what to expect here. Everything points to Labor potentially being able to win here, but with the poor polling in Victoria I don’t know how that would happen. Will have to pay close attention here on election night

Current statewide polling is showing at least a 4% swing to the Liberals and they are no longer the incumbent government that was embroiled in scandals and corruption. May well be in play by 2031 but on current numbers Sukkar is safe here, he’ll get 45%+ primary and there’s no way that’ll get chased down

no chance Labor win here. depending on how they choose to go Labor will ultimately win either menzies or deakin if parliament isnt expanded depending on which they choose to send further into Whitehorse lga.

Maxim,
Swings are not universal and not every single seat will go the same also there are a lot of local groups that are trying to get rid of him. While this seat could still go either way I think Labor is going to struggle more with area with high mortgage rates and on the outskirts of Melbourne electorates plus the Liberal civil war at the state level with have some sort of impact. It is worth noting that the Labor government in Victoria in 2025 will be almost 11 years old so that will have an impact as well.

@SpaceFish

Of course there are local trends and effects but when there is no genuine 3rd party threat the statewide polling/mood does become a serious drag on Labor’s chances this cycle if it plays out as is currently suggested.

The ‘Voices of Deakin’ group are announcing their candidate this Saturday, 11 January. It will be interesting to see who they choose.

I’m thinking Liberal hold.

If Labor didn’t win Deakin or Menzies in 2022, they aren’t winning either of them in 2025.

If they remain marginal, and the Liberals form government, they should be in play for Labor in 2028. If Labor win the election, especially in minority, Liberals should easily hold them in 2028 as well.

Labor really didn’t put any effort to Aston, Casey, Deakin and Menzies. They do seem to be putting effort into Menzies this time around.

SpaceFish – are they putting effort into Menzies? Really? They only announced their candidate on 12 December.

@redistributed – if you look at the Menzies thread, SpaceFish made some comments relating to Labor throwing a lot of resources at Menzies, suggesting that the party thinks they can notionally hold after the redistribution.

I disagree though, I predict the Liberals should retain as Keith Wolahan has built a personal vote up, especially with the Chinese community.

@spacefish technically they hold Menzies sothey are defending it. The liberals will hold gi en they barely “hold” it. As I said previously Menzies will eventually trend Labor and it sheds manningham and moves further into Whitehorse. The flow o. Will see leaking hold more and possibly make jagajaga competitive if it crosses the Yarra into manningham

This seat like Chisholm is classical marginal territory. It is up for grabs now. Labor could win

The hawkish attitude of Scomo’s government intensified the trend towards Labor in 2022, would expect a bounce back towards the Liberals in Chisholm, Menzies, Deakin and Aston – coupled with COL pressures it might be enough to put them all in the Liberal column along with Casey. Would be shocked if Labor took more than 2 of said seats

EDIT: hawkish attitude towards China – these seats are all right up there in terms of the concentration of Chinese Australians

@mick Labor are gonna go backwards this year. They barely won it based on 2022 results when they were in their peak. They won’t win it in 2025 or 2028 but2031 onwards will be a different story. Another redistribution for 2034 if the libs are still in govt could help or hinder that. If parliament expands they won’t win it. The close result is based off a well performing Labor party in Vic in 2022 a anti china attitude of the PM and a long serving members being dumped. None of those factors are in play this time around. Labor will be lucky to win seats let alone in Victoria. I give the maybe half a chance in bullwinkel and sturt but that’s it. Labor will go backwards everywhere it matters. I reckon they will lose 3 seats in Victoria being macnamara aston and mcewen and won’t hold their razor thin margin in Menzies, they have problems in Chisholm, Bruce, Holt and dunkley too in my opinion hawke maybe a liberal target but I doubt they will win it. And you’ll have worse problems in 2028 if albo and Allen are still in govt. They will probably hold Moreton and Blair but not by ,such. Blair is almost a certain loss come 2028. You won’t hold Richmond past this election if at all you will lose lingiari and maybe Solomon at a stretch in the nt Lyons in tas Paterson and probably Robertson in nsw with several seats like Parramatta at risk and wa will be a wildcats again but we will see when the election is held and what wa throws up at the state election.you could lose a couple inner city Sydney seats to independent Muslim candidates depending on what the libs do and if carbone runs against Bowen in McMahon he’s likely g9nna beat him. You should be saved by freelander personal vote despite polls saying otherwise in Macarthur but Stanley has problems in werriwa. Seats in the Hunter and Illawarra are at risk over off shore wind farms problems but may hold just.the only state the vote will hold is SA. Labor losing this election is the absolute best thing that could happen for them cause then they are still within a shot in 2028. Also, if they win in 2025 in some sort of hybrid Frankenstein govt the liberals will annihilate Labor likely with more seats then Tony Abbott and maybe even John Howard himself. 2025 like 2022 is a good election to lose for the libs just like 2022 was. I know the aim is always to win but sometimes you have to lose. Also minns would lose govt after 1 term in NsW he’s already in minority and wouldn’t hold

@maxim Maybe if scomo were still around or the libs were openly hostile to China but that’s not the case any more. Wolahan is a first term mp who will likely get a sophomore surge and remember in addition to the Labor party doing very well in 2022 in victoris long term Mp Kevin Andrews (RIP) lost preselection and obviously some sort of personal vote went with him. So it will be a liberal retain this time but it could be won by Labor in future if everything works well for them here.

Got about 18 hours in Fiji tokill