Curtin – Australia 2025

Hard to predict here – if Libs gain Curtin from Chaney it would be a massive feat to unseat a sitting Independent. I think Chaney can hold and increase her margin if Libs try and pitch to the right. Greens may also poll well in the Senate here.

@CG im saying they would on top of the WA correction the jewish community here is likely to swing to the Libs due to their stance on israel and gaza and kate CHaneys positions in parliament

LIB gain

Chaney voting against mandatory sentences is gonna hurt her.

Curtin voted for the voice. In line with the wishes of the sitting mp
The expected decline in the level of alp support does not mean there will be a decline in the teal level of support.
I would not count this as a liberal party win.

Their is a direct correlation from support for alp and support for the teals. Last time peoe were voting /preferencong against the LNP some of those votes will come back. Not to mention the Jewish suburbs in Curtin won’t be helping her out

@vader
What is the direct correlation?
Can you quantify it in some way?

All preferences flow to the reals if libs convert alp votes that’s less preferences flowing to Chaney. Live exports, wa correction, anti semitism, revival of liberal donors and to a lesser extent CoL. Chaney is toast.

I live in this seat. Last year I thought the liberals would have had the edge – Tom White has been advertising for months, the MRP polling has been favourable to him and he would have benefitted from the concurrent campaign of the WA liberals. Now I’m not so sure.

Chaney may be despised by the true blue blood liberals that live here, but she is not a controversial candidate for this electorate. She is very visible and has definitely increased her profile – particularly after the events of the Floreat shootings.

I’m now of the belief that the liberals are simultaneously loudly talking up a victory here but are pessimistic behind closed doors. There were after all only two candidates for preselection in what would have usually been a hotly contested seat.

That isn’t to say that the liberals can’t win here in, but I think their efforts would bear more fruit in other areas. It might be better for them to try and run up the margins in Cowan and Pearce against the government instead of engaging in what will likely be a resource draining battle in an area that isn’t feeling the brunt of a CoL crisis as much.

I saw some comments above re. Jewish populations in this electorate. I believe the largest and only Jewish majority suburb in WA is Menora in the federal electorate of Perth. I just did a quick look on google maps and could not find a single synagogue in the entire electorate. I therefore don’t think issues of antisemitism are as big a vote winner for the liberals here as it would be in eastern Sydney or Melbourne.

Whatever the result, the amount of money spent by both sides trying to win this will be astronomical.

Andrew there is a Jewish population in Dalkeith. As it was mentioned in a news article as a place targeted by anti semitic attacks

@John Judaism is not in the top five religions in Dalkeith. Dalkeith is much better known for its large upper-class Chinese population.

Just reporting what I heard.

What are we thinking here? Liberal gain or teal hold.

Thinking Chaney would need to really improve her primary while the Liberals go nowhere, which I find kinda hard to imagine with things as they stand, Liberal gain but if it’s another good night for teals then she’ll get back in on a similar margin

Probably Liberal gain but could go either way

from what i hear its 65-35 to the libs. even if thats off by 10% libs still win.