IND 1.3% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Kate Chaney, since 2022.
Western Perth. Curtin covers those suburbs between the northern shore of the Swan River and the Indian Ocean, stretching east to Subiaco and Leederville. Curtin stretches as far north as Doubleview and Joondanna. Key suburbs include Churchlands, Leederville, Wembley, Jolimont, Subiaco, Kings Park, Nedlands, Claremont, Swanbourne, Mount Claremont, Karrakatta, Floreat, Cottesloe, Peppermint Grove and Mosman Park.
Redistribution
Curtin slightly contracted at its northern edge, losing Karrinyup to Moore. This had no impact on Chaney’s margin.
History
Curtin was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. It has been won by the Liberal Party at all but one election, having been won by an independent former Liberal MP in 1996.
It was first won in 1949 by Paul Hasluck. He was appointed as Minister for Territories in 1951, and served in ministerial roles for the next eighteen years, eventually becoming Minister for External Affairs. In 1969 he left Parliament when appointed as Governor-General, a role he served in until 1974.
The 1969 Curtin by-election was won by Victor Garland. He joined the ministry under Billy McMahon in 1971, serving until the 1972 election. He then served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1975 to 1976 and again from 1977 until the 1980 election. In 1981 he resigned from Parliament to serve as Australia’s High Commissioner in London.
The 1981 Curtin by-election was won by Liberal candidate Allan Rocher. Rocher had been a Senator since 1977, resigning to run for the by-election. Rocher briefly served as a shadow minister in the early 1990s, but in 1996 was defeated for preselection by Ken Court, son of former Premier Charles Court, and brother of the then-Premier Richard Court. The Court government won re-election shortly before the 1996 federal election, but was engulfed in scandals involving his brother, and Rocher, running as an independent, managed to defeat Court in Curtin, winning re-election as an independent.
Rocher lost Curtin in 1998 to Liberal candidate Julie Bishop. Bishop was appointed Minister for Ageing in the Howard government in 2003, and in 2006 was promoted to cabinet as Minister for Education.
After the defeat of the Howard government in 2007, Bishop was elected as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party. Bishop served as deputy leader for the next eleven years, including as Foreign Minister from 2013. She stepped down as deputy leader and from the ministry when Malcolm Turnbull was removed as prime minister in 2018, and retired in 2019.
Liberal candidate Celia Hammond won Curtin in 2019.
Hammond was defeated in 2022 by independent candidate Kate Chaney.
- Kate Chaney (Independent)
- Kitty Hemsley (Greens)
- Viktor Ko (Labor)
- Tom White (Liberal)
Assessment
Chaney has likely built up a personal vote that should make her position much stronger, and you’d normally expect a first-term independent MP to significantly boost their vote, but the Liberal Party’s support has likely increased in Western Australia since 2022. Chaney remains the favourite.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Celia Hammond | Liberal | 43,408 | 41.3 | -12.7 | 41.4 |
| Kate Chaney | Independent | 30,942 | 29.5 | +29.5 | 29.7 |
| Yannick Spencer | Labor | 14,654 | 14.0 | -4.6 | 13.7 |
| Cameron Pidgeon | Greens | 10,889 | 10.4 | -4.9 | 10.4 |
| Ladeisha Verhoeff | United Australia | 1,828 | 1.7 | +0.5 | 1.7 |
| Dale Marie Grillo | One Nation | 1,310 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 1.2 |
| Bill Burn | Western Australia Party | 1,243 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 1.2 |
| Judith Cullity | Federation Party | 763 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Informal | 3,373 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kate Chaney | Independent | 53,847 | 51.3 | 51.3 | |
| Celia Hammond | Liberal | 51,190 | 48.7 | 48.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Celia Hammond | Liberal | 58,401 | 55.6 | -8.4 | 55.6 |
| Yannick Spencer | Labor | 46,636 | 44.4 | +8.4 | 44.4 |
Booths have been divided into four parts: north, south, north central and south central.
Chaney won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 50.6% in north centrel to 58.3% in the north and south central. The Liberal Party won 53.2% in the south.
The ALP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.6% in the south to 19% in the north.
The Greens came fourth, with a primary vote ranging from 7.4% in the south to 13.6% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North Central | 9.4 | 12.9 | 50.6 | 14,033 | 14.1 |
| South Central | 13.0 | 13.5 | 58.3 | 12,202 | 12.3 |
| South | 7.4 | 7.6 | 46.8 | 11,301 | 11.4 |
| North | 13.6 | 19.0 | 58.3 | 10,359 | 10.4 |
| Pre-poll | 9.7 | 14.0 | 51.8 | 29,738 | 29.9 |
| Other votes | 10.4 | 14.8 | 46.2 | 21,920 | 22.0 |
Election results in Curtin at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidate Kate Chaney, Labor and the Greens.
Hard to predict here – if Libs gain Curtin from Chaney it would be a massive feat to unseat a sitting Independent. I think Chaney can hold and increase her margin if Libs try and pitch to the right. Greens may also poll well in the Senate here.
@CG im saying they would on top of the WA correction the jewish community here is likely to swing to the Libs due to their stance on israel and gaza and kate CHaneys positions in parliament
LIB gain
Chaney voting against mandatory sentences is gonna hurt her.
Curtin voted for the voice. In line with the wishes of the sitting mp
The expected decline in the level of alp support does not mean there will be a decline in the teal level of support.
I would not count this as a liberal party win.
Their is a direct correlation from support for alp and support for the teals. Last time peoe were voting /preferencong against the LNP some of those votes will come back. Not to mention the Jewish suburbs in Curtin won’t be helping her out
@vader
What is the direct correlation?
Can you quantify it in some way?
All preferences flow to the reals if libs convert alp votes that’s less preferences flowing to Chaney. Live exports, wa correction, anti semitism, revival of liberal donors and to a lesser extent CoL. Chaney is toast.
I live in this seat. Last year I thought the liberals would have had the edge – Tom White has been advertising for months, the MRP polling has been favourable to him and he would have benefitted from the concurrent campaign of the WA liberals. Now I’m not so sure.
Chaney may be despised by the true blue blood liberals that live here, but she is not a controversial candidate for this electorate. She is very visible and has definitely increased her profile – particularly after the events of the Floreat shootings.
I’m now of the belief that the liberals are simultaneously loudly talking up a victory here but are pessimistic behind closed doors. There were after all only two candidates for preselection in what would have usually been a hotly contested seat.
That isn’t to say that the liberals can’t win here in, but I think their efforts would bear more fruit in other areas. It might be better for them to try and run up the margins in Cowan and Pearce against the government instead of engaging in what will likely be a resource draining battle in an area that isn’t feeling the brunt of a CoL crisis as much.
I saw some comments above re. Jewish populations in this electorate. I believe the largest and only Jewish majority suburb in WA is Menora in the federal electorate of Perth. I just did a quick look on google maps and could not find a single synagogue in the entire electorate. I therefore don’t think issues of antisemitism are as big a vote winner for the liberals here as it would be in eastern Sydney or Melbourne.
Whatever the result, the amount of money spent by both sides trying to win this will be astronomical.
Andrew there is a Jewish population in Dalkeith. As it was mentioned in a news article as a place targeted by anti semitic attacks
@John Judaism is not in the top five religions in Dalkeith. Dalkeith is much better known for its large upper-class Chinese population.
Just reporting what I heard.
What are we thinking here? Liberal gain or teal hold.
Thinking Chaney would need to really improve her primary while the Liberals go nowhere, which I find kinda hard to imagine with things as they stand, Liberal gain but if it’s another good night for teals then she’ll get back in on a similar margin
Probably Liberal gain but could go either way
from what i hear its 65-35 to the libs. even if thats off by 10% libs still win.
Curtin is a likely Chaney retain. The overlapping seats at the state election didn’t point to a renewed enthusiasm for the state Liberal party. I grew up in this seat and suspect there is even less appeal for the Dutton led Liberals so I don’t see why they would move away from an inoffensive independent.