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Interesting to see that Liberals were almost taken over by the Greens. I am aware that the Green won here in the 2002 by election but don’t see Labor losing anytime soon.
@spacefish this is very much unionised workforce here so agree labor easy retain it will never be a lab v grn battle in which case lab would win on coalition preferences and the left vote is simply too strong for the libs to ever win. the only way labor loses is if they dont run
I feel like this seat and Newcastle are very similar in demographic, workforce, transport, etc., yet I feel like Cunningham is more likely to fall to the Greens in the near future (in the next 20-50 years or so) for a few reasons:
1. Pretty obviously, gentrification in the inner suburbs will bring in younger, more progressive voters into the electorate, likely raising the Greens vote.
2. The large numbers of sea changers, environmentalists, and alternative lifestyle followers will bring in more ecocentric voters, obviosuly favouring the Greens. This is likely to be around Thirroul, Bulli, Austinmer, etc.
3. A gradual shift away from Labor from the industrial base. The industries that made Wollongong are becoming more viewed-down upon by some voters because of environmental issues. In addition, many union-belonging workers will shift towards the Greens, mainly as a hope of a party that is trending to be more union-friendly and also in general many workers and unionist holding progressive/Socialist views.
In general, I think the Cunningham by-election in 2002 which seemed like a blip in a long Labor history, I can feasibly see it going Green in the future. I expect a comfortable Labor hold in 2025 but a moderate swing to the Liberals as they seme to have raised their campaign efforts (in comparison to 2022 when they virtually went AWOL), and also the steel tariffs will hurt Labor’s steelworking base a bit.
The Greens would have to do very well to avoid having to depend on Lib preferences to win. A problem the Greens could have is if Cunningham expands to north or south it would be moving into Greens unfriendly territory. However the question has to be asked – why do Labor do so much better at state elections in the area and the Greens so much worse?
@Redistributed I suppose the generic “third party voters” vote independent on the state level.