ALP 15.1%
Incumbent MP
Alison Byrnes, since 2022.
Geography
Northern Wollongong. Cunningham covers suburbs of Wollongong north of the Wollongong CBD, as well as suburbs as far south as Warrawong and Port Kembla. Major suburbs include Wollongong, Fairy Meadow, Towradgi, Balgownie, Corrimal, Woonona, Bulli, Thirroul, Austinmer, Windang and Port Kembla.
Redistribution
Cunningham expanded south, taking in Berkeley, Cringila and Windang from Whitlam. These changes slightly increased the Labor margin from 14.7% to 15.1%.
History
Cunningham was created for the 1949 election following the expansion of the House of Representatives. With the exception of a 2002 by-election, the seat has always been won by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate Billy Davies. Davies had held the state seat of Wollongong for 32 years. Davies held Cunningham until his death in 1956.
The seat was won at the 1956 by-election by Victor Kearney, who held it until his retirement in 1963, although he attempted to win Cunningham back as an independent in 1966.
In 1963 the seat was won by state MP Rex Connor, who had held Wollongong-Kembla since 1950. When the ALP won the 1972 federal election, Connor joined Gough Whitlam’s cabinet as Minister for Minerals and Energy. Connor’s downfall as a minister came in 1974-5 as he attempted to organise loans for the Australian government through less than reputable means. He was forced to resign from Whitlam’s cabinet in October 1975, and the ‘Loans Affair’ was considered a key factor in the downfall of the Whitlam government.
Connor was re-elected at the 1975 election, and died in August 1977. The ensuing by-election was won by Stewart West. West was appointed as Bob Hawke’s first Minister for Immigration after winning the 1983 election. He resigned from Cabinet in November 1983 in protest at a decision in support of uranium mining. He returned to Cabinet in April 1984 and remained there until the 1990 election.
West lost preselection at the 1993 election to Stephen Martin, the sitting member for Macarthur. Macarthur had been redistributed out of the Illawarra area, and Martin successfully challenged West for Cunningham. Martin had held Macarthur since 1984.
Martin was elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives following the 1993 election and served in the role for the final term of the Keating government. Martin resigned in 2002, triggering a third by-election for Cunningham.
At the 2002 by-election, the ALP preselected Sharon Bird over the protests of local Labor members. The by-election took place under the leadership of Simon Crean, and in the lead-up to the war in Iraq. The ALP was buffetted from the left by issues such as Iraq and Crean’s poor performance, coupled with the loss of support from local ALP members and unions due to Bird’s preselection. The Liberal Party did not run in the by-election, and the Greens managed to organise strong preferences from other candidates. The ALP polled 38% of the primary vote, while Greens candidate Michael Organ polled 23%. Organ received strong preference flows, and won the seat with 52.2% of the two-party preferred vote.
Organ’s victory caused shockwaves, as the first ever Green elected to the House of Representatives. At the time the party had only two senators and had only polled 5% in the 2001 election, which was substantially up from poor performances at previous elections in the late 1990s.
The 2004 election saw Bird challenge Organ for the seat. With a Liberal candidate standing, Organ failed to come in the top two. Early counts suggested that the Greens had actually gained a swing on a two-candidate-preferred basis against the ALP, but this became irrelevant with the Liberals coming second.
Bird held Cunningham from 2004 until her retirement in 2022. She was succeeded by Labor candidate Alison Byrnes.
Assessment
Cunningham is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Alison Byrnes | Labor | 40,783 | 40.1 | -6.5 | 41.2 |
| Marcus Uren | Liberal | 25,418 | 25.0 | -6.0 | 24.5 |
| Dylan Green | Greens | 22,011 | 21.6 | +6.6 | 20.7 |
| Thomas Grogan | One Nation | 5,218 | 5.1 | +5.1 | 5.4 |
| Ben Britton | United Australia | 4,936 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 5.0 |
| Michael Glover | Liberal Democrats | 2,207 | 2.2 | +2.2 | 2.3 |
| Alexis Garnaut-Miller | Citizens Party | 1,098 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 1.0 |
| Informal | 5,514 | 5.1 | -0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Alison Byrnes | Labor | 65,783 | 64.7 | +1.3 | 65.1 |
| Marcus Uren | Liberal | 35,888 | 35.3 | -1.3 | 34.9 |
Polling places in Cunningham have been divided into four parts. From north to south these are labelled north, north central, south central and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 64.9% in North Central to 68.6% in the south.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15.1% in the south to 26.4% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South Central | 26.3 | 66.7 | 16,568 | 14.8 |
| North | 26.4 | 65.1 | 15,823 | 14.2 |
| South | 15.1 | 68.6 | 13,449 | 12.0 |
| North Central | 21.7 | 64.9 | 10,955 | 9.8 |
| Pre-poll | 18.5 | 64.4 | 41,943 | 37.5 |
| Other votes | 18.4 | 61.5 | 13,005 | 11.6 |
Election results in Cunningham at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Interesting to see that Liberals were almost taken over by the Greens. I am aware that the Green won here in the 2002 by election but don’t see Labor losing anytime soon.
@spacefish this is very much unionised workforce here so agree labor easy retain it will never be a lab v grn battle in which case lab would win on coalition preferences and the left vote is simply too strong for the libs to ever win. the only way labor loses is if they dont run
I feel like this seat and Newcastle are very similar in demographic, workforce, transport, etc., yet I feel like Cunningham is more likely to fall to the Greens in the near future (in the next 20-50 years or so) for a few reasons:
1. Pretty obviously, gentrification in the inner suburbs will bring in younger, more progressive voters into the electorate, likely raising the Greens vote.
2. The large numbers of sea changers, environmentalists, and alternative lifestyle followers will bring in more ecocentric voters, obviosuly favouring the Greens. This is likely to be around Thirroul, Bulli, Austinmer, etc.
3. A gradual shift away from Labor from the industrial base. The industries that made Wollongong are becoming more viewed-down upon by some voters because of environmental issues. In addition, many union-belonging workers will shift towards the Greens, mainly as a hope of a party that is trending to be more union-friendly and also in general many workers and unionist holding progressive/Socialist views.
In general, I think the Cunningham by-election in 2002 which seemed like a blip in a long Labor history, I can feasibly see it going Green in the future. I expect a comfortable Labor hold in 2025 but a moderate swing to the Liberals as they seme to have raised their campaign efforts (in comparison to 2022 when they virtually went AWOL), and also the steel tariffs will hurt Labor’s steelworking base a bit.
The Greens would have to do very well to avoid having to depend on Lib preferences to win. A problem the Greens could have is if Cunningham expands to north or south it would be moving into Greens unfriendly territory. However the question has to be asked – why do Labor do so much better at state elections in the area and the Greens so much worse?
@Redistributed I suppose the generic “third party voters” vote independent on the state level.
Massive assumption that the Greens are even going to be relevant in 3 years time, let alone 20. Cunningham especially with the new redistribution adding suburbs previously in Whitlam like Berkeley, Windang and Cringila is about as rock solid Labor as you can get.
NP
At state level Labor poll about 15% higher than at federal.
Labor retain easily on the basis of Wollongong being Unionist Galore and full of University aged green voters. the off-shore wind farm issue is overstated,. in terms of voter impact, at least in Wollongong smaller. It’s more cared about further North and South (Cronulla and Kiama). Small swing to liberals
For the Greens there’s a lot of parallels between this seat and Newcastle and I wonder which one will become an ALP vs Green seat first.
Newcastle Greens seem better organised – earlier preselection of a more experienced candidate and has a smaller gap to overtake the LNP. But on vibes I would have thought Cunningham would be more Green (had a Green MP once, slightly less fossil fuel dependent, more “sea change” voters) and it has a slightly higher Green 3CP
I think both seats will be Labor vs Green contests but only just and with Greens nowhere near being able to win the seat.