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Thoughts on this seat? The teal is running a hard campaign but I’m curious to see what everyone else thinks the result will be.
@James Nationals hold. The south votes Nationals and the north voted marginally for the teal. The teal (Caz Heise) did best in Coffs where she’s from. Apparently she now has ads in the movies now though. I feel like that’s kinda overkill.
@np i doubt the coalition will lose any seats
Caz Heise is one of several teal independents who will be re-running this election.
It’ll be interesting to see if she or anyone of them will hold firm or improve their vote with more exposure and experience. She knows her weak areas but at the same time, Pat Conaghan knows his weak areas and strong areas. I expect Labor to run dead. Their votes may or may not flow to Heise.
I don’t think she will improve, it was very different three years ago.
We should start a tally of every seat where it has been mentioned that Labor will ‘run dead’.
Cowper above, Casey the other day and then are the seats where they will – current Teal seats plus Indi, Mayo then Bradfield, Wannon. It almost seems that Labor could ‘run dead’ themselves into oblivion? Who knows what it will do to their senate vote.
Labor ‘running dead’ or ordinarily Labor voters voting for independents to try and defeat the Coalition in unwinnable seats for Labor is the reason Labor’s vote is at a record low of around 30%. If not for all these seats it would easily be upwards of 35%.
That’s what I think is going on @Adam, and additionally the 2PP in teal/progressive independent seats is likely to still be one favouring the Liberals. Labor are in a stronger position than the polls suggest
There’s not that many seats where the teals are the clear challengers, and not that many voters who will vote tactically even though it’s enough in a few cases to turn the teal into the clear challenger. At most it can account for maybe 1% of the primary vote.
Where teal candidates have been successful the seats have either had LNP members who didn’t align with the views of the wider population or they said that they are aligned but when in government didn’t actually act that way
Good teal vote
Boundaries strange
What Adda wrote. The numbers don’t support it being the full difference between 28% and 35% that’s truely wishful thinking from Labor aligned people.