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The Greens have a serious shot of winning here.
It’s the other half of the Greens heartland in inner-Melbourne (the other half being Wills) but demographically it’s less favourable than Wills because Northcote and Thornbury aren’t as strong as Brunswick or Coburg on the other side of the creek. There’s less of a Muslim population in the north which contains Bundoora, Preston and Reservoir versus Wills that has Pascoe Vale, Fawkner, Oak Park, and Ged Kearney is from the left faction and is pro-Palestine unlike Peter Khalil from the right and a pro-American hawk of sorts (who would probably be better for Macnamara than the left wing Wills).
I think Labor can hold on but could see a further swing to the Greens if the Liberal (who are deplored here) vote keeps decreasing.
Also should mention Sam Ratnam is a competitive candidate with a high profile and suitable for the electorate. Cooper on the other hand has a relatively unknown Tara Burnett who is not as high profile as the previous candidate Celeste Liddle (who happens to be her partner) who helped the Greens swing back into competition after Kearney swooped the anti-Greens wave and boosted her margin to about 14%.
So I’d say Cooper is Labor hold, but Wills is a marginal Greens gain.
@Tommo9 I agree, unfortunately the Greens will pick up Wills. But Labor will still hold onto Cooper and Macnamara.
Yeah Cooper is only 4.1% Muslim and Bell Street is less of a divide. Ged Kearney is a popular MP and is the right fit for the seat. The Greens will need Liberal preferences to win this which is buckleys chance. Replacing David Feeney with Ged Kearney was Shorten’s greatest gift to the Labor party although too much focus on this seat led to Labor moving too far to the left in 2018 Batman by-election which hurt them in the coal seats. However, when they have good MPs like Ged Kearney/Plibasek they can hold on.
Labor hold with little swing against it.
I rate both Macnamara and Wills as tossups. Cooper is safe for labor until Kearney retires.
There seems to be sn assumption that the Greens will keep gradually increasing their vote in areas like this and eventually take it. I think the Greens vote has peaked, there will be little to no swing and could even be a swing to Labor. Labor won a majority at the Darebin council elections and the Greens did poorly
I agree that there’s a ceiling for the Greens vote. Just because they grew their primary vote in most inner-city electorates for the past 25-30 years, it doesn’t mean it will go on indefinitely. The Greens lost South Brisbane last year at the QLD election and just lost the Prahran by-election so it’s possible to see a pullback in the Greens vote.
The Clifton Hill part was part of Melbourne last election and with Adam Bandt’s personal vote and Labor not bothered campaigning, the Greens post-redistribution vote overall is a bit inflated.
Totally agree Votante – the 60 Greens both in Clifton Hill on the map here was only 52 Greens in the Richmond electorate at the state level with Liberal preferences. Labor’s primary was 39% to Greens 34.5% there at the state election, and that would’ve been a Labor 2CP booth if Liberals had preferenced Labor like they will here federally.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Greens didn’t win a single booth here. Labor seems to be doing well in this area, and did very well in the City of Darebin council elections.