ALP 7.8% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Ged Kearney, since 2019. Previously member for Batman 2018-2019.
Geography
Cooper covers parts of the inner north of Melbourne. Cooper covers all of the City of Darebin as well as parts of Yarra and Merri-bek council areas. Cooper covers the suburbs of Fairfield, Northcote, Thornbury, Preston, Reservoir and Kingsbury.
Redistribution
Cooper expanded to the south-west, taking in Clifton Hill from the seat of Melbourne. This reduced the Labor margin against the Greens from 8.7% to 7.8%.
History
The electorate of Cooper was created in 2019 as a new name for the seat of Batman, which was a long-standing Melbourne electorate, and for most of its history had been held by Labor MPs.
The seat was first won in 1906 by Protectionist candidate Jabez Coon. Coon held the seat for only one term before losing it to Labor candidate Henry Beard in 1910. Beard was a former Labor state MP, and died only months after his election to the House of Representatives.
The ensuing by-election in 1911 was won by the ALP’s Frank Brennan. Brennan held the seat for the next twenty years, serving as Attorney-General in the Scullin government from 1929 until 1931. At the 1931 election Brennan lost his seat and the Scullin government was defeated, with Batman being won by UAP candidate Samuel Dennis.
Dennis only held on for one term, losing to Brennan in 1934. Brennan held the seat for another fifteen years, retiring in 1949.
Batman was won in 1949 by the ALP’s Alan Bird, a former Mayor of Northcote. Bird was re-elected throughout the 1950s, returning to the Northcote mayoralty for one year in 1958. He died in office in 1962.
The 1962 by-election was won by Williamstown mayor Sam Benson. Benson was re-elected in 1963 but in 1966 was expelled from the ALP over his support for the Vietnam War. He managed to win election as an independent in 1966. Benson retired in 1969, and the seat went to Labor candidate and Collingwood mayor Horace Garrick in 1969.
Garrick was re-elected at the 1972, 1974 and 1975 elections, but lost preselection in 1976 to Brian Howe, who won the seat at the 1977 election. Howe became a junior minister upon the election of the Hawke government in 1983, and was promoted to Cabinet following the 1984 election. Howe became Deputy Prime Minister in 1991 after Paul Keating moved to the backbench following a failed challenge to Bob Hawke’s leadership, and Howe held the position until 1995. He retired at the 1996 election.
Howe was succeeded in 1996 by former ACTU president Martin Ferguson. Ferguson went straight into the Labor shadow cabinet and was a shadow minister for the entirety of the Howard government, and joined the Cabinet in 2007 after the election of the Rudd government. Ferguson resigned from the ministry in early 2013, and retired at the 2013 election.
Batman was won in 2013 by Labor candidate David Feeney. Feeney had been a Senator since 2008, but had been demoted to the marginal third position on the Labor ticket. Feeney was elected in Batman, and was re-elected with a smaller margin in 2016.
David Feeney was forced to resign in early 2018 due to his inability to demonstrate that he had renounced his British citizenship before running for federal parliament. The subsequent by-election was won by Labor’s Ged Kearney, who gained a 3.4% swing. Kearney was re-elected to represent the renamed seat of Cooper in 2019 and 2022.
- Tara Burnett (Greens)
- Ged Kearney (Labor)
- Kath Larkin (Victorian Socialists)
- Stewart Todhunter (Liberal)
Assessment
The Greens came close to winning the seat once called Batman prior to Ged Kearney’s candidacy. She is a strong Labor MP but her margin is not enormous. The Greens have a better chance in the neighbouring seat of Wills but they could cut Kearney’s margin further.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ged Kearney | Labor | 38,754 | 41.3 | -5.5 | 40.7 |
| Celeste Liddle | Greens | 25,648 | 27.4 | +6.4 | 28.4 |
| Jadon Atkinson | Liberal | 15,329 | 16.4 | -3.3 | 16.2 |
| Adam La Rosa | United Australia | 4,170 | 4.4 | +2.5 | 4.3 |
| Kath Larkin | Victorian Socialists | 3,250 | 3.5 | -0.8 | 3.4 |
| William Turner | One Nation | 2,807 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 2.9 |
| Rabin Bangaar | Animal Justice | 2,207 | 2.4 | -0.2 | 2.3 |
| Adrian Whitehead | Fusion | 1,585 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.6 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 4,169 | 4.3 | -0.7 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ged Kearney | Labor | 70,743 | 75.5 | -0.8 | 75.7 |
| Jadon Atkinson | Liberal | 23,007 | 24.5 | +0.8 | 24.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ged Kearney | Labor | 55,006 | 58.7 | -6.2 | 57.8 |
| Celeste Liddle | Greens | 38,744 | 41.3 | +6.2 | 42.2 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south. The southern area is centred on Northcote. The central area is centred on Preston and Thornbury. The northern area is centred on Reservoir.
Labor won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in all three areas ranging from 51.8% in the south to 64.5% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB prim | ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 14.2 | 56.7 | 18,290 | 18.7 |
| North | 19.3 | 64.5 | 14,462 | 14.8 |
| South | 11.2 | 51.8 | 13,253 | 13.5 |
| Pre-poll | 16.5 | 57.4 | 32,477 | 33.1 |
| Other votes | 18.8 | 58.8 | 19,544 | 19.9 |
Election results in Cooper at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
The Greens have a serious shot of winning here.
It’s the other half of the Greens heartland in inner-Melbourne (the other half being Wills) but demographically it’s less favourable than Wills because Northcote and Thornbury aren’t as strong as Brunswick or Coburg on the other side of the creek. There’s less of a Muslim population in the north which contains Bundoora, Preston and Reservoir versus Wills that has Pascoe Vale, Fawkner, Oak Park, and Ged Kearney is from the left faction and is pro-Palestine unlike Peter Khalil from the right and a pro-American hawk of sorts (who would probably be better for Macnamara than the left wing Wills).
I think Labor can hold on but could see a further swing to the Greens if the Liberal (who are deplored here) vote keeps decreasing.
Also should mention Sam Ratnam is a competitive candidate with a high profile and suitable for the electorate. Cooper on the other hand has a relatively unknown Tara Burnett who is not as high profile as the previous candidate Celeste Liddle (who happens to be her partner) who helped the Greens swing back into competition after Kearney swooped the anti-Greens wave and boosted her margin to about 14%.
So I’d say Cooper is Labor hold, but Wills is a marginal Greens gain.
@Tommo9 I agree, unfortunately the Greens will pick up Wills. But Labor will still hold onto Cooper and Macnamara.
Yeah Cooper is only 4.1% Muslim and Bell Street is less of a divide. Ged Kearney is a popular MP and is the right fit for the seat. The Greens will need Liberal preferences to win this which is buckleys chance. Replacing David Feeney with Ged Kearney was Shorten’s greatest gift to the Labor party although too much focus on this seat led to Labor moving too far to the left in 2018 Batman by-election which hurt them in the coal seats. However, when they have good MPs like Ged Kearney/Plibasek they can hold on.
Labor hold with little swing against it.
I rate both Macnamara and Wills as tossups. Cooper is safe for labor until Kearney retires.
There seems to be sn assumption that the Greens will keep gradually increasing their vote in areas like this and eventually take it. I think the Greens vote has peaked, there will be little to no swing and could even be a swing to Labor. Labor won a majority at the Darebin council elections and the Greens did poorly
I agree that there’s a ceiling for the Greens vote. Just because they grew their primary vote in most inner-city electorates for the past 25-30 years, it doesn’t mean it will go on indefinitely. The Greens lost South Brisbane last year at the QLD election and just lost the Prahran by-election so it’s possible to see a pullback in the Greens vote.
The Clifton Hill part was part of Melbourne last election and with Adam Bandt’s personal vote and Labor not bothered campaigning, the Greens post-redistribution vote overall is a bit inflated.
Totally agree Votante – the 60 Greens both in Clifton Hill on the map here was only 52 Greens in the Richmond electorate at the state level with Liberal preferences. Labor’s primary was 39% to Greens 34.5% there at the state election, and that would’ve been a Labor 2CP booth if Liberals had preferenced Labor like they will here federally.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Greens didn’t win a single booth here. Labor seems to be doing well in this area, and did very well in the City of Darebin council elections.
The Liberals have pre-selected a candidate for Cooper:
https://vic.liberal.org.au/team/stewart-todhunter
A question to any residents/people closely linked to Cooper: has the Liberal candidate been doing any campaigning here? I found his Facebook page, literally no evidence of campaigning whatsoever (no doorknocking, street meetings, listening posts etc.) His website on the VIC Liberals website is generic and doesn’t have any links to his campaign here.
Cheers.
@James (irelxnd) not a resident but can probably guess why: They don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning that seat. The candidate was the failed Northcote candidate from 2022 and the seat is one of the most left wing in the country, it’s literally one of the worst places to be endorsed as the Liberal candidate especially Peter Dutton, lest you’re happy to have hecklers throwing rotten eggs or tomatoes at you every now and then when you mention his name or his policies.
@Tommo9 – not surprised at all. This is one of the least Coalition-favourable seats in the country. He’s essentially a sacrificial lamb.
The Liberals didn’t even have anyone handing out HTVs at the booth I was at in Cooper last time. They get single digits in many of the southern booths, a bit more up the Reservoir end.