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I don’t really know what to expect here. Obviously the Liberals will retain, but swings is where I have no idea what will happen. In any ordinary circumstance, I would expect a swing against Labor but given that the last member was ScoMo who presumably had a popular vote, I don’t know
the people in Cook happily voted for Morrison knowing exactly what he was like so doubt there would be any lower vote for the current Lib candidate
Cook changed so that I think this will always be a liberal seat
They could put an average Joe here as the Liberal candidate and they’d still win. The seat will always be a Liberal seat as it stands – Labor does not stand a chance…
The swing last general election contained a readjustment element. Scomo got a sizeable swing to him in 2019 – his first election as the PM. The swing was above the state average. The swing to Labor in 2022 in Cook was also above the state average.
The 2CP margins in the west, formerly, of Hughes, are inflated for Labor due to the presence of a teal independent and Craig Kelly running last time. Both candidates took votes from the Liberals (and Labor).