2025 Australian federal election

1. @ Daniel T
   I think either Hotham or Chisholm has lowest % of born in Australia. Even in your seat of Melbourne there is great variance. In Melbourne CBD it is only around 25% born in Australia while Fitzroy North is about 71% Australian born

2. You can get the full breakdowns of religious affiliation from the Community Profiles spreadsheets.

3. @Nimalan no worries, and I can still do other maps. I may consider doing just urban divisions for religion though.

   @Laine I had a look at all the Newcastle and Central Coast seats, there it was Hinduism in every seat.

4. @Nimalan the lowest was actually Parramatta. Only 38.2% of people in the seat of Parramatta were born in Australia. 16.5% were born in India, 7.6% were born in China, 3.1% were born in Nepal, 2.7% were born in Lebanon and 2.2% were born in the Philippines.

   Only 31.9% of Parramatta residents spoke only English at home. This is very interesting as it is a marginal seat that the Liberals really could win from Labor (they held the state seat of Parramatta relatively comfortably until 2023 and they still hold Epping and Winston Hills, the latter of which was formerly Seven Hills which was Liberal-held from its creation in 2015 to its abolition in 2023).

   The only other seat I recall having less than 40% of the population born in Australia was Fowler where only 39.1% of residents were born in Australia.

   Blaxland is perhaps the most interesting seat in terms of religion because it’s actually the only seat where the main religion isn’t either Christianity or no religion. A total of 34.9% of Blaxland’s residents were Muslim according to the 2021 census.

5. @Nimalan, Hotham has the lowest % of born in Australia reported at 43.1%. Chisholm is reported at 46.6%

6. By Melbourne standards though

7. By suburb, it looks like Auburn has the lowest % of English spoken at home at 12.2% (even surpasses by Mandarin and Nepalese) which is interestingly multicultural with large percentages od Chinese (21.8%), Nepalese (12.2%), and Muslim (38.5%) communities just in one suburb,

8. Downloaded every single community profile and mapped out the largest non-Christian religion in each division as Nether Portal had done before they encountered their bug – https://jmp.sh/wHzjQQDn
   Yellow is Buddhism, purple is Hinduism, green is Islam, Orange is Sikhism, blue is Judaism and Red is Indigenous beliefs (obviously indigenous beliefs are not a monolith but the census treats them as such.)

   It’s interesting how much regional NSW stands out compared to the other states. And Kennedy and Page are a bit of an odd pairing.

9. Both Page and Kennedy have long histories of Sikh farmers in the horticulture industry especially bananas, who have been here for many generations, some over 125 years.

10. @ Nether Portal/Marh thanks for confirming. The only thing i would i caution is Parramatta would have a lot of non citizens especially in the areas like Harris Park which are densely populated. I think suburb with the fewest Australian born would be Haymarket where only 13% are Australian born again it has a lot of international students. Areas like The Ponds or Point Cook will have more South Asian families with Australian born children than places like Harris Park.

11. @Witness Cowper is the same.

12. @ Laine
    Thanks for doing the map much appreciated looks great. Sometimes i wonder if Eastern Orthodoxy or ethnic forms of Christianity should be considered a minority tradition in which cases the map will change especially Menzies, Jagajaga, Maribiyong Banks, Hughes, Cook and Cooper will change colour.
    Like Witness said many Sikhs are involved in the horticulture industry i am actually surprised more seats like Cowper. Dawson and Lyne did not have Sikhism as the main minority religion.
    What seats topped for Hindus and Buddhist in the Top 5?

13. @Laine thanks! Very interesting map indeed.

14. @Nimalan I’m actually quite surprised Cowper and Lyne didn’t have Hinduism as the top religion. Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie are seeing quite a big influx of Indian immigrants in recent years and population-wise they’ve overtaken Chinese and Thai immigrants. I remember five years ago Port Macquarie had like three Indian restaurants and about 20 Chinese and Thai restaurants, whereas more recently when I was there I noticed that there were way more and there’s even Indian grocer in addition to the small Asian grocer (near the Coles on Shortland Street if I remember correctly).

    I would say in 2026 (when the next census will be held), Hinduism will overtake Buddhism in Cowper and Lyne and as of 2024 I think it already has.

15. @ Nether Portal
    Do you mean Hinduism or Sikhism as the top minority religion in those seats. About 25% of Indian born Australians are Sikhs and they often move to regional areas. Shepperton in Victoria is also seeing a growing Sikh community. I am also surprised that Bennelong, Berowra and Bradfield had Hinduism as the main minority religion when those areas typically have a larger Chinese community so i would have expected Buddhism to be the main minority religion.

16. @Nimalan, Most Chinese don’t tend to have religion due to East Asian societies historically found many of the values and traditions from the philosopher Confucius hence not requiring a prophet. There are some in the East Asian Community that did convert to Christianity.

17. A lot of Chinese people don’t identify as Buddhist or religious in general even if they follow religious and spiritual practices.

18. @ Marh/Dan M
    Good points, religion does not really form part of ethnic/cultural identity in Chinese communities even if many do follow ancestor veneration or other rituals. This is different to many other cultures where ethnicity and religion are linked for example in the Greek community where i have never one person who does not identify as Greek Orthodox. The areas with largest Buddhist populations seem to be where there is a large concentration of Indochinese and Sri lankans (although Sri Lankans are ethnically/religiously diverse)

19. Isn’t the State MP for Coffs Harbour of Sikh/Indian descent?

20. @James yes. Gurmesh Singh is his name. He’s the Nationals MP for Coffs Harbour and lives in Woolgoolga (a town just north of the city itself).

21. @Nimalan I would’ve thought Hinduism in those seats to be honest but Sikhism might be high too.

22. But yes, the majority of Chinese, Japanese and Korean people (whether they live in their home country or are diaspora) are mostly “spiritual but not religious”, so they don’t see themselves as religious despite having some spiritual beliefs. To many people and cultures, Buddhism is often more of a spirituality than an actual religion with religious doctrine.

23. @Nimalan about Greeks, I read somewhere that 91% of Greek Australians identified as Greek Orthodox. Therefore it’s more likely that you’ll find a non-religious Iranian or Lebanese person than a non-religious Greek person.

24. A “teal-style” Muslim political group has announced that it will endorse candidates in seats with high Muslim populations, in support of WA Labor Senator Fatima Payman over her suspension from the Labor Party. Some senior Labor sources reportedly think that she could join this group or party.

    The self-described grassroots campaign, named The Muslim Vote, is seeking to unseat MPs in working-class Labor strongholds by mobilising the perceived anger of Muslims at the government and opposition’s positions on the Israel-Hamas war (and the general Israel-Palestine conflict), including the suspension of Payman after she crossed the floor to support an unsuccessful Greens motion in the Senate to recognise a Palestinian state.

25. The question is whether that would be enough to unseat Labor given the preferences and Libs would almost certainly preference Labor ahead if a pro Palestine Independent so this may only work if the seat is majority or at least close to Majority Muslim. Blaxland being the highest at 31.8% Muslim so I assume they got 20% of the vote which itself isn’t likely enough to unseat Labor due to preferences.

26. So far, the group has announced that it will contest four Western Sydney seats at the next federal election:

    * Blaxland, held by Education Minister Jason Clare on a margin of 14.94%, where 31.7% of the population is Muslim (making it the only electorate with more Muslims than Christians)
    * McMahon, held by Energy Minister Chris Bowen on a margin of 9.49%, where 13.8% of the population is Muslim
    * Watson, held by Leader of the House Tony Burke on a margin of 15.10%, where 25.1% of the population is Muslim
    * Werriwa, held by backbencher Anne Stanley on a margin of 5.82%, where 16.0% of the population is Muslim

    The group says it also wants to contest other seats in Sydney and Melbourne.

27. @Marh looking at the seats they’re contesting so far, they won’t do it. Not only will Labor likely retain all of those seats, but at least one of those (Werriwa) is a Liberal target and a marginal seat.

    As others have said on this site, Labor losing Werriwa to the Liberals would be their version of the moment when the Liberals to Labor. It would mean that Labor’s Red Wall is starting to come down, and the question is will it rebuild itself like British Labour’s Red Wall will do in two days time or will it just collapse like the Berlin Wall before it.

28. @ Nether Portal/Marh
    Agree unless the Libs preference a pro-Palestine Candidate they will not beat Labor. In Werriwa i dont they will even make the 2CP as there is a decent Liberal vote and a target. I would say Werriwa is a mirror image of Higgins so Labor losing Werriwa is like when the Libs lost Higgins. Werriwa is actually a more socially mixed seat than neighbouring Fowler, a bit like why Higgins was able to be won by Labor as it does have Left wing areas while Kooyong does not so labor ran dead there. I say Macathur, Greenway, Werriwa and even McMahon are more socially mixed seats while Blaxland, Watson, Fowler and are solid Red seats which Libs can never win.

29. with the live sheep ban by may 2028 passing the senate Labor could be in for a world of hurt in WA. even though this only mostly effects certain coaltion held divisions. 2022 demonstrated WA’s soldarity in opposing policies and politicians with and anti-wa mindset. Labor has no chance of gaining another 3rd senate spot and certain divisions won by labor are at risk of falling. Bullwinkle which takes in regional are rural parts as well as parts of eastern perth is almost certain to flip to the coalition. places like pearce will most likely also change back to the libs. i will also predict that tangey will flip back and places swan, hasluck and cowan will be competitive. i think curtin has a strong chance of being regain due to the fact they will certainly use Kate Chaneys stance of not stnading up for WA against her. given that the coalition is certain to reintroduce it as part of their policies id imagine we will see it reintroduced when they return to power which would likely be around the same time as it ends in 2028 given its scheduled to end in may 2028 which is around the time of the last possible date for the election in that year.

30. Okay I found the group’s website: https://themuslimvote.com.au/

    So far they’ve made two disendorsements. They’ve disendorsed Jason Clare in Blaxland and Tony Burke in Watson.

31. this could be helpful for Dai le in fowler. but as far as endorsing candidates id say the vote will just end up back with labor anyway but at a reduced margin. although if Frank Carbone runs in McMahon and their party contests those western sydney divisions it could be interesting

32. If Frank Carbone runs in McMahon on a Pro-Palestine platform would the liberals provide prfeferences.
    Werriwa is interesting because Ned Mannoun has actually helped the Libs make inroads among the Muslim community and it had a very high UAP vote last time as well.

33. Using The Muslim Vote’s ratings of MPs, here’s a map showing whether the group reckons they support Israel or Palestine: https://jmp.sh/DC9qk7Bc

    * Blue = pro-Israel
    * Red = pro-Palestine
    * Yellow = neutral
    * Grey = no data yet

    I’ve only included maps of electorates in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and the Gold Coast, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra since the site hasn’t rated (and likely won’t rate) any regional or rural MPs or MPs from other cities.

34. The only other seat they might rate Solomon but they haven’t yet but if they do I’ll add it. The map will be updated when more stuff is available.

35. @NP bruce is a pro palestine not israel

36. @John oops my mistake thanks for the correction.

37. What are everyone’s thoughts re an early election based on the current political climate?

38. @Kent – The same as its been for a long time now, regardless of the politicial climate – low to very low. An above 0% chance but it’s hard to know how much above. Redistributions and other elections are the major (logistical) hurdle.

    There is one window right at the end of the year with an actual above 0% chance but…?

39. IMHO, an early election is extremely unlikely, and has been all term. I’m not aware of Albanese or anyone closely connected to him ever publicly signalling that he was even considering calling an early election. Labor would need a combination of a big win to give a positive sentiment boost (e.g. Yes winning the Voice referendum), macroeconomic circumstances in their favour (e.g. inflation coming down and RBA reducing the cash rate without us having gone into a recession) and political circumstances in their favour (e.g. stabilty within the ALP caucus while there is leadership instability or substantial policy disagreements within the Liberal Party) that would make it probable they would outperform their 2022 result (or stave off a looming electoral storm that is foreseeable but not yet on voters’ minds), arguably none of which have eventuated, at least not markedly enough to make the risk of an early election worth it.

    If fear of an early election prompted the Liberals to get their preselections done early, that’s good for them, but to an uniformed layperson like me, early election talk is just overexcited chatter.

40. This whole ‘Muslim Vote’ thing, as a moderate Liberal supporter, is going to be absolute karma for Labor. I looked at the rating table for MPs, and from memory it was only Vamvakinou and Hill who were pro-South Africa. I can imagine Labor when the Liberals lost a lot of seats to teals: ROFL, thinking they are immune from community independents.

    I certainly am curious about whether these independents will be successful in marginalising or winning seats. They could look to Dai Le, though her win was mainly based of the Labor candidate’s unpopularity/lack of appeal in a seat she wasn’t even from.

    I’m personally not a huge fan of the table. One example is my area’s MP Mike Freelander, and basically they trash him for being a bit more pro-Israel, though they don’t seem to mention that he is Jewish. However the assessing criteria are relevant and certainly well-done. I’ll give them that.

41. This new party won’t be the new DLP nor will it hurt nor help any party win government at the ballot box. It will be as politically irrelevant as ”Liberals for Forests”

42. I could see this Muslim Vote thing turn into something that could give Labor a scare, but not to the extent of taking seats off them. Single-issue parties/groups usually struggle to get past the one issue and whilst I could see the reasoning for this group and understand why they’ve come about, the most they could do is likely to be the same scenario that occurred to Labor in North-Western Melbourne seats in 2022 where their very safe margins got a haircut but not enough to derail their very safe status. I could see seats like Blaxland, Watson etc going from about 15% to about 9%-10% with the loss of primary votes, but unless if the Liberals preference them (the chances of that happening is close to hell freezing over given their overwhelming support for Israel and ignoring Palestine and Muslim people in their positions), those votes would still circulate back to Labor via preferences (though much more weakly than before) and won’t kick them out.

    As I said, it could give MPs like Jason Clare and Tony Burke a bit of a scare though in their usually very safe seats and hopefully will be an enough of a warning to Labor that they shouldn’t take the support from Muslim voters for granted by being wishy-washy on the issue of Palestine.

43. Daniel T
    LOL “Liberals for Forests”!!!

44. so August 3rd is out due to not having called the election on monday. i think the olympics will create further dates out of discussion too. my bet is early decemeber april or in late may as the only possible dates now

45. The Muslim vote will only succeed if the Libs preference them. The other thing as these are seats where there is low education and lower English proficiency they will need a full HTV otherwise there will be a huge informal vote. This is why Dai Le had a full HTV but the teals did not. I do think the Muslim vote will preference Labor ahead of the Libs though.

46. @nimalan the muslims vote has vowed to “vote against” sitting mps so this is going to be more dangerous for labor as there are only about 2 liberal mps on that list. being David Coleman in Banks and Alex hawke in mitchell

47. About one year before the election, general predictions

    Labor gain: Bennelong*, Deakin, Aston**
    Libs gain: Menzies*, Bullwinkle, Gilmore, Lingiari
    Greens gain: Macnamara, Richmond
    Teals gain: Bradfield (Tink)

    ALP: 74 (-3)
    Libs/Nats: 58 (0)
    Teals: 7 (0)
    Greens 6 (+2)

48. @ Drake
    I generally agree with you i think Labor will win between 70-77 seats. i think Greens will pick up at least two. I think Bullwinkle is easiest Liberal pick up. As a Menzies resident i just want to wait till boundaries finalized first though making a prediction. I think Lyons is more likely a pick up than Lingiari.

    @ John, if the Muslim vote goes to libs than dangerous in Werriwa i still think Blaxland, Watson lib vote is way too low to win.

49. @Drake labor wont gain any of those three il bet my ridiculous settlement on it.
    here is my predictions
    Labor gain: Menzies (lineball notional retain), Sturt (lineball gain), maybe Leichardt
    Lib gain: Bennelong (notional retain), Lyons, Lingiari, Gilmore, Higgins (pending redistribution), Robertson, Tangey, McEwen, Paterson, Boothby (50/50), Parramatta, Blair, Dobell, Dunkley (50/50), Eden-Monaro, Pearce, Bullwinkle, Curtin. obviously they wont get all but these will be the ones that could fall.
    Greens: Wills (pending redistribution), Macnamara (50/50)
    Teals: Bradfield (50/50)

    outliers Cowan, Swan, Hasluck, Whitlam, Lilley, Macquarie, Bruce, Chisholm, Werriwa, Hunter, Brisbane and Ryan.

    so there is certainly enough seats that are in my opinion vunerable enough to fall to the coalition for them to form government. especially given the muslim voting block has vowed to vote against a swath of sitting mps. with two possible rate hikes on the cards before the election and virtually no chance of a rate reduction id say the later albo goes the worse it will get

50. im still predciting a labor minortity govt though proped up by the majority of the cross bench. im say they will get 68-71 seats

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