2025 Australian federal election

1. Chris Bowen today aid he spoken to australians and they said they want renewables because not only are they the cheapest form of electrity there the most popular. what world is this guy living in

2. Renewables are cheap, but if Labor keep on pretending as if power bills haven’t increased dramatically on their watch then they will only give more and more ammunition to Dutton.
   I agree with repealing the ban on nuclear energy, but not with building the plants with taxpayer money and definitely not with scrapping those targets for 2030

3. @John the teal list is teal targets AND potential losses.

4. We will know in an about a week or so if albo intends to go early

5. Albo won’t even risk going early given that he knows he’ll most likely lose out in the mini-redistribution that will merge the electorates/create a combined electorate (in WA) and people in NT and QLD are waiting with their baseball bats intent on punishing Labor. It would be political suicide, and there’s no good reason to.

   It looks like he’ll serve out a full-term till May next year.

6. @ Nether Portal

   Calare would be competitive for independent if Gee decides to re-contest. I’d still back the Nats, but I think it should have some doubt to it. Macnamara should be the same colour as Wills, it’s much more winnable for the Greens than Wills. Corangamite should be the lightest shade of purple, Libs on proposed boundaries would have barely won in 2019 and it has swung hard left since then.

   I think Hasluck should be the same colour as Cowan. The new boundaries are very friendly for Labor and it’s hard to see them lose the seat on those boundaries.

7. @tommo9 while i agree with taht i think that if waits until may it will only get worse. scomo made the same error. if scomo went in november 2021 he probably would of won

8. @drake agreed on macnamara, i dont think libs can win on the new boundaries in corangamite. hasluck and cowan will be competitive but probably a marginal labor retain

9. I agree that Macnamara should be the same colour as Wills. The Greens’ communication I get via both email and social media is already calling Macnamara & Wills their two targets. Their messaging is all centred on “Let’s turn Macnamara and Wills Green” so they are clearly their two biggest target seats.

10. Agree with Trent as well Cooper is a much lower priority target for the Greens this time and i would put it as among the lowest priority unlike Macnamara or Wills.

11. I haven’t seen them even mention Cooper for a long time.

    A lot of resources are going into Macnamara. They already had their campaign launch party (right behind my house), have been door-knocking, constant social media mentions about it being their most winnable seat not just by the local candidate and ex-candidate (Sonia & Steph) but also in state & national level comms going out from Adam Bandt and even interstate Greens, there are Greens posters already plastered everywhere all over the area, they’re not leaving any stone unturned. Josh Burns is in for a fight.

    I also already notice a difference this time around: in 2022 the Greens were (correctly) saying “The Liberals can’t win, it’s an ALP v Greens contest so voting for us won’t help the Liberals” while Labor were very much running on the whole “You have to vote Labor to beat the Liberals” line.

    But this time around, it seems the Labor campaign are also using the same “The Liberals can’t win, this is a Greens v Labor contest, vote for us to beat the Greens” angle. Clearly this is aimed at the Jewish community, but would very much come from being well-aware that all they need to do is not finish third and they probably win so they would be aiming to reduce the Liberals to third place (on 3PP, they were already third place on primary vote) by painting them as uncompetitive and a wasted vote.

12. @ Trent,
    Interestingly, i picked up something two days ago on Michael Danby’s youtube channel from back in 2013 before the election. There was a rumour discussed that the Greens were concerned that Adam Bandt would loose his seat if the Libs reversed their preference decision so they were willing to offer to preference the Libs in Melbourne Ports. i dont know how true this would have been. However, it just shows how much dynamics have changed the Greens dont need Lib preferences in Melbourne, the Libs are uncompetative now in Macnamara and the Greens dont need their preferences they just need the Labor party knocked out.

13. That is interesting! The Greens certainly didn’t end up preferencing the Libs in Melbourne Ports in 2013 so the rumour I assume was just a scare campaign by Danby. He certainly wasn’t above that sort of thing.

    But it does show how much things have changed in that whole area. Simultaneously a steady rise of the Greens and a steady decline of the Liberals has really changed the dynamics.

14. Speaking of Macnamara, Redbridge did a poll yesterday on the seat

    ALP: 30
    LIBS: 36
    GRN: 21
    OTH: 13

    Using the same flow of preferences from minor parties you get a 3CP of

    ALP: 31.9
    LIB: 42.8
    GRN: 25.3

    Which would be a Labor win. Though caution should be applied, small sample size and the Greens have a history of having their vote underreported in inner city target seats (Maiwar, Ryan, Newtown, Prahran, Northcote). The TPP is 55% ALP which is 7.25% swing, which I think suggests this sample is maybe a bit too Lib skewed. Has the Libs doing 0.8% better in Albert Park/Port Melbourne area compared to their high in 2016, and 2% better in Caulfield compared to 2016.

    Does seem to at least suggest the Libs should still stay in the top 2.

    I do remember that Danby story. I think it was under the assumption a moderate Liberal would be more left wing/more pro Palestine than him. Which is funny to look back on. The Greens now wouldn’t even contemplate such a thing which reflects a big change in attitude for them.

15. anyone else see the Dutton Scandal w/his son. really blows up in his face considering he is a former cop that wants to be tough on youth crime.
    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/tanya-s-classy-response-to-dutton-s-scandal/ar-BB1oOG1I?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8041b593e8e14eaea9f02286e262e7fb&ei=51#comments

16. Yeah I can’t see any possible way that in the Albert Part & Port Melbourne area, the Liberal Party are topping what they got in their 2016 high under Malcolm Turnbull, in 2025 with Peter Dutton.

    You’re right Drake that they might make up a little ground from 2022 and fall somewhere between the 2019 & 2022 results. But to top the 2016 in those areas seems completely implausible.

    And you’re right, these seat polls do tend to underestimate the Greens vote.

    I note too that the commentary seems to make an assumption that the swings from Greens to Liberals might come down to it being a transient seat, so it might indicate more older voters moving in. This is nothing more than an assumption to try to explain the swing, there is no data to back it up (latest Census data is prior to the 2022 election). What’s important here is that it tells me that perhaps the results are not being adjusted enough by age.

17. @ Trent
    The other thing that i have pointed out a few times about Macnamara the population growth is occurring in the West of the Seat around Fishermens Bend, Southbank on current boundaries this is actually diluting the Jewish community as there is less population growth in the East of the seat. I am not sure if this demographic will be friendly to a Dutton Led Libs. I do think maybe if Empty nesters are downsizing and moving to a luxury apartment in Port Melbourne it helps Libs but cannot see any other reason. Also this swing to Libs is much bigger than National level polls are indicating.

18. Michael Danby probably wouldn’t have been in the Labor Party if it wasn’t for the SDA Union. He moved to the further Right (like Mark Latham and Gary Johns) once he retired from politics.

19. @Caleb I don’t think that will have a major bearing. We’re not America (Hunter Biden). I’ve even seen people who outright despise Dutton say “nah, his sons not a public figure, leave him out of it”.

20. @Caleb and Tanya Plibersek’s husband is an ex-drug smuggler. Your point?

21. @caleb leaving out the fact that provate family matters are usually off limits currently he has committed no crime

22. so with inflation rising from 3.6 to 4% that increases the chance of a rate rise at the next election and would further harm the governments position

23. @ Marh
    Regarding Michael Danby he was popular in the Caulfield end of the electorate but deeply unpopular elsewhere. The thing was that in the 21 Years he was the local MP there was a lot of demographic change epecially in the Western end and an Old Labor man no longer fit the demographic.

24. so kate chaney has backflipped on her support for labors live sheep export ban

25. i think chaney is concerned for her seat as this would be an issue the coalition would wedege her. either way i tihnk the coalition would reverse the ban when they return to government. if they campaing on this in wa they sould have no trouble recovering those seats. then ban is set to end it by may 1 2028 and given this will coincide with the election of that year or might even happen before

26. @John obviously the Coalition will reverse the ban if they get in government but I don’t think it’ll matter much to voters in a seat like Curtin. Curtin is an affluent beachside seat in northwestern Perth, far from any farms. It’ll definitely matter in parts of WA though, i.e in the two rural seats though (Durack and O’Connor), and (to a lesser extent) in the regional-urban mixed seat of Forrest. But given that the Liberals will hold those three seats anyway and it isn’t a major concern to urban voters, it won’t have as much of an effect in WA.

    The thing is, Labor doesn’t actually hold any agricultural rural seats, at least not on the federal level.

    * Ballarat is centred around the regional city of Ballarat which has shifted left over the years
    * Bendigo, like Ballarat, is centred around the regional city of Bendigo which has shifted left over the years, plus it also includes the town of Castlemaine which is quite left-leaning
    * Blair includes some suburbs of Ipswich (a working-class city that traditionally votes Labor)
    * Eden-Monaro has a large tourism industry (mountain biking, skiing, snowboarding, etc), plus it has Queanbeyan (a regional city near Canberra which is the most progressive city in Australia)
    * Franklin covers not only southern Tasmania but also many outer suburbs of Hobart, and the majority of the seat’s population lives in Hobart
    * Gilmore also has a big tourism industry (beaches, national parks, etc)
    * Hunter is a coal-mining seat and coal miners once heavily voted Labor and lived in working-class industrial towns like Muswellbrook and Singleton, plus then there’s Cessnock which is an industrial working-class town that has always voted Labor
    * Lingiari is a mixed urban, provincial, rural and remote seat covering all of the Northern Territory except Darwin and Palmerston, and it includes Indigenous communities that have traditionally voted strongly for Labor
    * Lyons includes some outer northern suburbs of Hobart (most notably the outer northeastern suburb of Sorell which is working-class)
    * Macquarie is very mixed since the Hawkesbury region which spills into both northwestern Sydney and rural NSW is heavily Liberal-voting while the Blue Mountains is heavily Labor-voting (especially when you get closer to Katoomba and further from Bathurst or Penrith), despite the nearby Sydney suburb of Penrith (and the surrounding area) being mixed in terms of voting trends
    * Paterson is based around three main cities and towns: Newcastle (Port Stephens), Maitland and Kurri Kurri (as of the current redistribution). Maitland is a regional city and Kurri Kurri is a formerly industrial town, and both of them are working-class and traditionally vote Labor, while Port Stephens is mixed (Raymond Terrace is similar to Maitland in that it’s working-class, while Nelson Bay is more middle-class and usually votes Liberal and Medowie has a lot of new estates and houses and is more mixed in terms of its voting trends)
    * Richmond is mostly urban, containing a regional city (Tweed Heads) and two major towns (Ballina and Byron Bay), plus places like Byron Bay are full of hippies and lefties who originally hail from Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane
    * Whitlam is not entirely based in the Southern Highlands, and a significant portion of its area and the majority of its population live in Wollongong (Shellharbour)

27. Agree NP
    Even Blue Mountains is not agricultural at all due to the topography surrounded by national Park. I would also argue Leichardt which is Labor target seat is not really as rural because 80% of the population lives in Cairns. Corangamite is also not really agricultural as well.

28. @Nimalan and for the record:

    * Bass has Launceston (regional city)
    * Casey includes parts of Melbourne
    * Forrest has Bunbury and Busselton (both regional cities)
    * Hume has Camden (Sydney suburb) and Goulburn (regional city)
    * La Trobe includes Pakenham (Melbourne)
    * Wannon has Warrnambool

    I missed Hawke and McEwen which are Labor seats that aren’t agricultural because they include many other suburbs of Melbourne and are more working-class, industrial-type seats.

29. Flynn is not agricultural either because allot of the seat is Gladstone and a small part of Rockampton.

    Dawson isn’t either because it mainly is the Whitsunday coast including Mackay which is a huge tourism area.

30. @ NP
    Agree about Hawke and McEwen, One point is McEwen on current boundaries does not really have any working class areas the more labor friendly areas tend to be growth areas while parts of Hawke like Melton are working class, Sunbury is middle class.

31. @Nimalan thanks for the correction.

    @Daniel T I agree plus Mackay is a large city too.

    Anyway, here’s my rough map of seats where agriculture is a big industry. Darker shades of green mean agriculture is more important to the seat’s economy, while lighter shades mean it’s less important. I used green as the Nationals use that colour and it is typically associated with agriculture, but coincidentally the Nationals use a darker green while the Greens use a lighter green, and the Greens vote is much higher in areas with little to no agricultural industries than in those where agriculture is a major part of everyday life.

    You can view it here: https://jmp.sh/A5uEnLdY

    I also plan to make some more maps about demographics like nationality, language, country of origin, religion, income and age. Any suggestions are welcome for what groups/languages I should look at in particular colour I should use for each group/language (it has to be something relatively common because the ABS only gives like the first five responses and I don’t know how to access the rest).

32. NP, Born in Australia should be the first one.

33. @Daniel T will do.

34. @ Nether Portal
    Really like your map 🙂
    Some suggestion % Speaking a language other English on a colour scale. I think Lyons has the lowest while Fowler the highest
    Main Minority religion other than Christianity- can colour code for example Judaism (Blue)-wentworth, Macnamara, Goldstein etc Islam (Green)- Calwell, Blaxland, Bruce, Watson etc, Hinduism (Orange) (Lalor, Gellibrand, Greenway, La Trobe etc) Buddhism (yellow) Fowler,Fraser etc.

35. You could potentially do, largest language other than English

36. @Nimalan thanks I’ll do those maps soon too.

37. @Drake yes I do plan on doing that one

38. Currently doing the born in Australia map. In NSW outside Sydney it appears that Robertson has the lowest percentage born in Australia at 74.6%.

39. What do we think the polling changes will be from the Dutton nuclear announcement?

40. @np obviously it is because if she’s “getting feedback” and flipping her position I’d say people in curtin are complainingtember they have relatives who probably own farms or a business depending on it.

41. The other thing while they don’t hold any rural seats people commute to work from their held seats so itll have more far reaching consequences beyond durack oconnor Forrest pearce and suh

42. @Nether Portal

    Maybe this goes a way to explaining why Robertson is trending towards Labor. It actually wouldn’t have been won by Labor in 2007 on current boundaries.

43. Final map of seats by Australian-born percentage: https://jmp.sh/jFVASFVN

    Darker shades of blue indicate a higher percentage of residents born in Australia, and lighter shades indicate a lower percentage. Fowler and Parramatta were the only two where under 40% of the population was born in Australia and I think the highest was Lyons or Wannon if I’m not mistaken.

    The most multicultural seat outside a capital city was, no surprises here, Moncrieff. Located on the Gold Coast, Moncrieff takes in affluent beachside suburbs like Southport and Surfers Paradise at the heart of the Gold Coast. Just 60.4% of Moncrieff residents were born in Australia, compared to a state average of 71.4% across Queensland and a national average of 66.9%.

    If you look closer at Moncrieff, you’ll see that in the state seat of Surfers Paradise only 54.6% of the population were born in Australia. But Southport is slightly lower at just 54.1%.

    This is all as of the 2021 census.

44. NP, Is my seat of Melbourne the lowest in Victoria for Born-In Australia?

    You could also do “Average age per electorate” I wonder if every single seat that is in the top 10 oldest votes for the Coalition and likewise for the lowest age seats whether they vote for progressive parties.

45. @Nether Portal does the darkest shade of blue represent 80+%?

46. @ Nimalan The religion map you mention may be hard to make without access to more detailed census data as Christian denominations are counted separately from each other and only the top 5 responses are provided by the ABS. As a result in some WASP seats there are sometimes no non-christian religions listed.

47. @SCart yes.

    @Daniel T I’ll do that map. However, Melbourne doesn’t have the lowest Australian-born percentage in Victoria. 49.1% of people in that seat were born in Australia. I’m not sure what the lowest is but in Bruce only 49.0% were born in Australia.

48. Well I almost finished the map (I had about 65% of Victoria left plus all of the ACT) but there was a glitch that made the page reload and didn’t save sadly. But basically this is what I remember:

    * In Sydney, Islam and Hinduism dominated different regions, but it wasn’t an east vs west divide; the north was very Hindu while the south was very Muslim
    * The only seats outside Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide where there were somewhat significant non-Christian religious communities were Clark in Hobart, Moncrieff on the Gold Coast and Solomon in Darwin
    * Nationals, Greens and independent seats had the lowest non-Christian religious populations, while Labor and Liberal seats had a wide variety of religions
    * While most were Labor seats, some Liberal seats also had big non-Christian religious communities, namely Banks, Berowra Bradfield and Mitchell
    * I think North Sydney and Wentworth were the only teal seats that had big non-Christian religious communities, and Brisbane was the only Greens one (though I didn’t make it up to Melbourne)
    * There is a way to view very detailed stats for every electorate but it would involve me having to download lots of files and it would take a while to make
    * Wentworth has quite a large Jewish community

49. @ Laine
    Agree it can be challenging in many seats including urban ones. For example, in Mackellar none of the Top 5 Responses are non Christian Religions. Even my seat of Menzies which maybe the most diverse Liberal-held seat in terms of % who speak a non-english language none of the top 5 are non christian religions although Eastern Orthodoxy is in the Top 5 and much higher than the national average. You can do it by LGA level though at a granular level see link below
    @ NP thanks for doing the map. Bradfield is interesting it does seem to have a high % of Hindus etc but i drilled down to LGA level and Ku-ringai has a much lower % than the Hornsby LGA.

    https://profile.id.com.au/ku-ring-gai/religion

50. @ Nether Portal I’ve just looked through a couple of those detailed stat files for electorates I’ve lived in, quite surprised Maranoa’s largest non-Christian religion is Buddhism. Wish it was quicker and easier to check out every electorate though.

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