2025 Australian federal election

According to the Redbridge poll, Moore has a 51% Liberal TPP which is stated on the report yet it’s labelled as “too close to call” for some reason.

On Redbridge’s numbers I would say all the tossups are very close but I would say on those numbers that Curtin would be retained by teal independent Kate Chaney, Labor would gain Brisbane and Deakin and would retain Lyons and Robertson and the CLP would gain Lingiari. Gilmore depends on what “other parties/candidates” are getting 15% of the primary vote. If One Nation and the UAP get 6% each I would say the Liberals would very narrowly win. The 11% Greens vote complicates Gilmore given that the “other” vote is 15%.

@John also some good points. I was basing my “I would say” statements on the numbers Redbridge gave. For example, while I think the Liberals will retain Casey and Monash those numbers suggest Labor would win.

However I wouldn’t say Hunter or Shortland would fall I think the redistribution will make both safer for Labor whilst making Paterson weaker for Labor. Also I would say the Greens would preference Labor over Sharkie as Sharkie is centrist and Labor are closer to the Greens ideologically.

@NP il say this Lyons, Lingiaari and Gilmore will fall to the coalition and idare say Eden-monaro with the likely changes going on there. Curtin will be a tossup, it will lose the parts of karinyup that helped get her over the line and the correction back to the libs should also swing it to the libs. brisbane will be a tossup lets see what happens at the qld state election. deakin will depend entirely on the redistribution bu ti do feel either it or menzies will go to labor at least notionally after redistribution with the other strengthening for the LNP but the one that goes labor will only be arginal and totally recoverable. robertson is now australias longest bellwhether but i hear the libs are doing well there so that might cease to exist after this election.

i cant see how both become safer if shortland eats into hunter because it would remove strong labor booths from lake macquarie making hunter extremely vunerable given its member is newer.

i personally dont see how shortland can come up to quota without eating into an already at quota division if it goes anywhere but into hunter which has further flow on effects.

i think aaron violi is a good member and will be retained by the people of casey no way moash goes labor either

The overall PV and 2PP can be useful info in terms of grouping it with other polls for aggregate and to get a feel of the trend over time, but seat by seat with so small a sample isn’t particularly useful, and is a snapshot at a time where people know there isn’t an election anytime soon – and to be fair, seat by seat polls have rarely been accurate anyway.

As others have mentioned, there’s redistributions to consider, changes in candidates and not to mention for first term members, their personal vote and subsequent sophomore surge. And just to mention a few individual seats, I find it hard to believe that Monique Ryan in Kooyong would easily win against Amelia Hamer, while Allegra Spender in Wentworth would struggle and only hit 51 2PP.

@WL agreed Monique Ryan and Kate Chaney are the only teals i feel will lose this time around. unless something goes wrong for them on the north shore and i cant see tim wilson beating zoe daniels. though i have been mistaken on occasion. i believe the coalition can be competitive but without those teal seats i cant see them regaining govt after 1 term. my tip is a labor minority govt as i cant see any other possible outcome happening

Any swing to the Liberals in WA I feel will be concentrated in the seats they already hold and the Redbridge poll released over the weekend affirms this (though say what you will about seat by seat polling, plus a redistribution pending).

What people miss is how invisible Morton & Hammond were within their respective electorates, voters may have their grievances with the government but it’s pretty bold to assume that this is an automatic tick of approval for the Liberal Party – especially in Curtin, where Chaney isn’t a member of either major party, she is herself a protest against both majors.

Tangney is a fun one, the Liberals need to find a new candidate but they weren’t doing their reputation any favour by plugging a war hawk who’d written a piece of fiction about a conflict with China. Ask the average Tangney resident and they’ll probably have much nicer things to say about Sam Lim and his level of engagement at a ground level versus Morton, who was nowhere to be seen.

All these things do make a difference if people can’t find anything nice to say about your side from a policy perspective they’ll give much more weight to who actually wears the party colour. All pending the redistribution of course.

@angus there is no way that seat by seat poll can be relied upon and even still Redbridge is historically biased towards Labor there is no way you can conduct seat by seat polling nationwide with a pool of 4000 people. The seat by seat poll effectively says everyone thinks Labor is doing a good job

John, Kos Samaras is never wrong.

@Daniel T while Kos Samaras isn’t wrong usually I would say the poll isn’t accurate. A poll of 4,000 people in total means like 25 people per electorate. I pointed out some inaccuracies before for example if Labor had a primary vote lead over the Greens of more than 1% then Brisbane would become a Labor seat not a 50/50 LNP/Greens contest, and there’s no way the Greens are getting 15% in Blair. After Labor’s crushing defeat in Ipswich West and the enormous swing against them in Inala plus the overall mood in Queensland I would say the LNP would pick up Blair from Labor, whereas the poll says Labor is increasing its TPP in Blair. It also doesn’t say who the “others” are so that complicates seats like Gilmore. On the Redbridge numbers the only clear Coalition gain seems to be Lingiari which has been put as 50/50 but my calculations would have the CLP winning with ≈50.5% TPP.

I also agree with @WL about the fact that there’s a redistribution in three states which will have a big effect on seat margins and that it seems to have mismatched some seats. I agree that Allegra Spender will be re-elected with over 53% TCP in Wentworth since even though it has some Liberal suburbs like Vaucluse and basically all of the northern end (which is in the safe state Liberal seat of Vaucluse and includes suburbs that voted No despite being very rich suburbs), it also has places like Bondi which are teal suburbs that also voted for Kerryn Phelps at the 2018 by-election and in 2019.

@Neither Portal, regarding the very rich suburbs that voted No, it is suggested the very rich are probably even more likely to Vote No than someone in the upper middle class/middle class as these groups tend to be Wealthy Businesspeople/doctors/etc rather than white collar/social workers/etc

@marh the welathier whiter suburbs were more likely to vote yes.

The MRP poll is not a seat-by-seat poll – it’s modelling each seat by extrapolating demographic data. It’s also a pretty small sample size for a MRP (only ~4000 compared to the ~15000 that the reasonably accurate YouGove MRP used before last election) so the details are more likely to be wrong. I would not put much stock in individual seats, especially non-classical seats (which are something an MRP is naturally going to struggle with due to failing to account for local factors) but I would pay attention to the broader trend and it is probably reasonably indicative of what sorts of seats could end up changing hands.

what babaluma said

so the greens have stated their key demand for minority govt support for labor is recognition of a palestinian state

John, where did they state this? I haven’t seen such a statement anywhere.

Links, or it’s just bluster and bulldust.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fgreens-push-for-palestinian-statehood-fails-sparks-warning-of-labor-preferences%2Fnews-story%2F6a2f225ac13e6d1a72641c803840bc1d&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-2-NOSCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append this particular article is paywalled but he announced it yesterday

Would they support the Coalition instead?

John, I kindly suggest using archive.is for posting paywalled articles. Here’s the above article for example:
https://archive.is/DIshs

no. but if albo needs them he wont have a choice

The relevant passage from the article is:

“Mr Bandt told The Australian that “in any future minority parliament, the Greens will use every lever at our disposal to push for an end to the invasion of Gaza and the occupation of Palestine, as well as for Australia to recognise the State of Palestine”. However, Mr Bandt said it “shouldn’t have to be a point of negotiations after the next election, as Labor has the power to recognise Palestine today.” He also clarified the Greens would continue to push for progress for Palestine in the current parliament. ”

That doesn’t say recognition of a Palestinian state will be the Greens’ key demand. Actually it sounds like Bandt wants Labor to take action now so that it doesn’t have to come up in negotiations.

@Wilson it’s unlikely that Albo will recognise a Palestinian state at the moment due to the current situation with the Hamas attacks on Israel and the conflict in Gaza, so it is almost a key demand even though New Labor supports a two state solution. If Labor doesn’t want to lose all of its Old Labor seats to the Coalition then Labor will want a majority and will need to make sure the Greens don’t take any more seats.

@wilson quoting the austrlain article “Greens leader Adam Bandt has made clear he will elevate the recognition of a Palestinian State in any discussions for minority government should the election return a hung parliament, fuelling opposition concerns about the prospect of a Labor-Green coalition.”

Josh Frydenburg has today, once again, ruled out contesting the preselection for Kooyong.

https://x.com/michellegrattan/status/1797481348070023383?s=46&t=TCVKol5Xxrihp2TiZ3aU4A

It’s in the Greens interest for pro Israel ALP voters in Macnamara to flip to the Liberals. The Greens’ path to victory there is Labor coming 3rd.

However the risk to the broader left is if similar voters in Wentworth go from teal to blue. I think Spender has been pretty consistently pro Israel, voting against the Greens’ Palestine motion (not abstaining like many other teals). But it may not be enough.

How much votes are actually up for grabs is unclear.

@Douglas – it’s common for politicians to test the waters with rumours before making a decision. The reaction to Frydenberg’s return at the expense of Hamer was negative enough that he dropped it. I’m surprised Frydenberg doesn’t just carpet bag to Monash (although Broadbent might hang on as an independent in that case).

both alp and libs denounced the greens yesterday but will they put their money where there muth is and prefeence them last?

Albo has unfortunately set the bar for what he describes as a good government. He says he’s never lost a newspoll and hasn’t lost a minister. That means he now can’t sack anyone or lose a newspoll without making himself look bad. He may control one of things but the other isn’t up to him.

There’s an interesting article in the Haaretz newspaper regarding trends in how younger generation Australian Jews voted in the 2022 Australian election. The article is titled “Why Young Australian Zionists Are Backing the pro-Palestinian Greens” if you’re interested.

Here’s a bit I found interesting:

“Indeed, survey after survey in recent years has found that young American Jews are far less connected to Israel than their parents and grandparents…
That is certainly not the case in Australia. The most recent survey undertaken of the community, conducted in 2017 by the Australian Centre for Jewish Civilization, found that young Australian Jews were even more likely than their parents and grandparents – albeit by a very small margin – to identify as Zionist. Indeed, three out of every four Australian Jews aged 18 to 29 responded in the affirmative when asked whether they considered themselves to be Zionists. (The survey did not provide a precise definition for the term.)”

Opposition’s decision to dump 2030 emissions target if elected is ‘a step backwards’ says Climate Council’s Dr Jennifer Rayner. not to mention it is a breach of the Paris Climate Agreement & that’s not going to go over well with the general public as the party becomes more Trumpian as time passes on.

@Caleb quite a dumb decision from Dutton. I expect more from him. That’s going to lose votes in teal seats and it may cause them to lose seats like Bradfield and Sturt to teals.

Pretty much Dutton can kiss all the teal seats goodbye and hope this doesn’t cost him Bradfield and Sturt.

Yep Dutton has kicked himself one of the biggest own goals in his time as Opposition leader. Come election night next year he’ll find that most of the ‘swing’ he gets will be in the outer-suburbs/rural areas which they already hold anyway, so basically sandbagging their existing seats. He can forget any of the teal seats as they’ve all been handed another term in office if this is Dutton’s pathway. I don’t think the likes of Monique Ryan or Kate Chaney will be sweating on this news at all.

Then you have seats where they could be losing big time next election. Bradfield will certainly go teal (either Kylea Tink or Nicolette Boele, depending on who runs), and if the likes of Amelia Hamer and Tim Wilson stick to party lines about climate change, they won’t be getting in Kooyong or Goldstein anytime soon. Labor will likely take Sturt if there’s no teal candidate running (and in the process, depletes the Liberals of any seats in metro Adelaide). Not good for the coalition if this is the hill they’re willing to die on.

The election isn’t over. It’s still very much a cost-of-living election so some seats will swing and be gained on that basis but Dutton’s decision to essentially pull out of the Paris agreement will cost him some seats too.

Liberal member here. Someone seriously needs to call a spill to get Dutton out because as @Tommo9 pointed out, this is a massive own goal.

Voters don’t like Dutton’s decision:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/dutton-s-u-turn-on-climate-target-is-a-gift-for-labor-20240610-p5jkiz.html

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/letters/last-post-libs-must-address-climate-change-liberals-must-address-climate-change/news-story/3b03c037f1c52508a7c402b158c23438

The NSW Coalition is still committed to cut emissions by 70% by 2035. That’s an ambitious target and it’s backed by both Coalition parties and it matches NSW Labor’s targets. Why can’t the federal Coalition do the same?

@Nether Portal Genuinely, I don’t know why. And this was practically as the Liberals were taking a nationwide lead in the polls! Sky After Dark maybe? If the feds still had Josh Frydenberg or any goddamn moderate leader, or even a pragmatic hard-rightist like Howard, they’d be smoking Labor right now. Fuck it, maybe just run Birmo in Grey at the next election since Ramsey’s retiring, or get Perrottet to run in Bennelong or Reid or some shit, then we can have a decently moderate LNP. This is by far the biggest fuck-up they’ve had in opposition.

Ironically though, this may well cost him fewer seats than his comments about African gangs in Melbourne from nearly 7 years ago. Just goes to show that people give more of a shit about random culture war issues than actual things that affect our country.

Though tbf using an SMH article may not be the most accurate source, given that these days it is a small-L Liberal paper at absolute best and is generally more Labor-aligned. But still, I can’t imagine this will go down well with anyone except Sky After Dark and hard-right LNP voters/ON voters/UAP voters, which is not what the LNP needs to win.

@Nether Portal could you post The Australian articles text here, sounds interesting but its behind a paywall.

@SCart I agree the SMH although once supporters of the Coalition has trended to support Labor. They endorsed federal Labor in 1961 (Calwell), 1984 (Hawke), 1987 (Hawke), 2007 (Rudd), 2010 (Gillard), 2019 (Shorten) and 2022 (Albanese), but it didn’t offer an endorsement in 2004. For state elections it has either endorsed the Coalition or declined to endorse either major party for every election since 1974 except 2003 (Carr).

@Nether Portal could you post The Australian article text here, sounds interesting but its behind a paywall.

@SCart Having had a look at the article, there’s a bunch of reader’s comments about various topics (this, Chris Uhlmann’s hawkish opinions, the NDIS and Albo not being able to use his office due to pro-Palestine protestors in his electorate). No prizes for guessing that the more progressive comments slamming Dutton came from places like Hawthorn (Kooyong), Malvern (Higgins) and Fig Tree Pocket (Ryan) whilst all the more conservative, Labor-hating, Dutton-friendly comments came from Tanunda (Barker), Pt Macquarie (Cowper), Glass House Mountains (Fisher), Beauty Point (Bass) etc (though there was one that was a bit hawkish but came from Mosman Park which is in Curtin). Says it all about the nature of those electorates and their voters.

@SCart here’s a paywall-bypassed version:

https://archive.md/Yit66

I have a subscription to The Australian but Archive.md is a good tool to bypass paywalls. It’s also like the Wayback Machine so it can archive URLs in addition to removing the paywall.

@Tommo9 ah yes, regional/rural people. I grew up near Port Macquarie can confirm it’s quite conservative-voting and it’s more and more conservative the further you get from the beach/city and the closer you get to the mountains. Some towns there vote 80% Nationals and 85% No to the Voice (Comboyne, Long Flat and Lorne come to mind, all small rural towns you’ve probably never heard of).

@nether portal dutton is gambling on gaining outer surburban seats from labor by helping with the cost of living. he knows no matter what he does he wont win those teal seats back. they arent going to vote for the coalition on climate policy and he not going to out labor labor because it wont work. im glad hes done this.

@John there is a real possibility that the Liberals could one day gain back those teal seats and that could be in the near future. If the targets were already set by the Coalition he shouldn’t’ve made a U-turn and decide to get rid of them. Pulling Australia out of the Paris agreement like how Trump pulled the US out of the Paris agreement (after Obama entered it, Trump then left it only for Biden to re-enter it) is a silly idea and it’s been a policy pushed by One Nation for quite some time now (i.e ever since we signed up to it).

@np hes done it because a) it looks like we wont even meet it anyway because even labor most optimistic projections has us missing the target and b) he doesnt want to be hamstrung by them. those teal seats will go back to the liberals once the teals retire and there is no point wasting resources trying to out teal the teals at the cost of not gaining seats elsewhere.

@John 1. We are already on track to reduce emissions by 42% by 2030 and 2. Is there any non-LNP seat in the country (let alone the teals seats) where this policy would be popular?

and if you look at the latest poll dutton seems to be able to feel the pulse of the electorate better then Albo. if labors policies were so popular they would be ahead in the polls but their not the libs are gaining and Albo is at risk of losing a newspoll very soon. At this point a labor minority government is the best he can hope for and to be honest i think the only thing stopping the coalition winning the election is that those teals who occupy traditional liberal seats wil back albo over dutton.

@Scart yes thats 1% short of the agreed 43% and thats on their most optimistic projection so we will fail to meet it

Based on the current pendulum the Coalition need 19 seats to win a majority. Reigniting the climate wars basically rules out winning back the Teal seats so that leaves – ignoring redistributions for now – a grab bag of seats just to get to the 19. Hasluck at a majority of 5.95% is at the top of that range. There are seats like Hunter which would be hard to win – and of course the Coalition could lose seats so the task would be even harder. It seems strange politics to put yourself in a situation where being a weak minority government is the best possible outcome.