2025 Australian federal election

1. 1. Dutton isn’t proposing One Nation-type “Net Zero immigration”.
   2. Our population has increased faster than any other Western nation since 2000. With that being said, how the fuck do we still have all these skill shortages?
   3. Despite what all the wealthy Big Australia shills and their useful idiots within Labor and the Greens might say, we don’t need to rely on this Ponzi scheme to prop up our failing economy. Per capita GDP has consistently declined since the start of 2023 (the Libs need to hone in on this fact) and yet in spite of that Labor has imported people en masse just so they can say “we’re not in recession” even though we are. It’s insidious, and most Australians thankfully see through it.
   If you want what mass immigration does to the housing market, take a look at Canada.

2. @Scart Housing and Immigration are two seperate issues that have some overlap. Lowering immigration alone won’t solve our housing crisis, a combination of solutions will.
   We have an ageing population, with more people leaving the workforce and less entering, whilst putting stress onto other industries such as the health and aged care systems. I’m not saying a cut isn’t worthwhile or shouldn’t be considered, but we need to be aware of other unintended consequences when making that decision. As for Dutton I genuinely believe he wants minimal or no migration and he’s just using housing as a thinly veiled attempt to give his ideas legitimacy.

3. Minimal immigration is still far better than what Albo is proposing. New Zealand recently made a policy where there is no immigration outside of skill shortages, immediate family or humanitarian visas. I think thats a good idea. However, I do agree that no one thing can solve the housing crisis (though this will go a long way towards solving it). Also, compared to most other Western countries, we don’t have an ageing population. But I do agree with you that the next election won’t be too catastrophic for Labor as long as they don’t do anything ridiculously stupid. I’d say that 2028 or 2031 will be the LNP’s time.

4. Tommo labor already only have a 2 seat majority. They wonthpld all their current seats and offset their losses. Libs will get at least 2 maybe 3 of those wa seats that puts them in minority. Lyons will go.blair is at risk. They can’t take Casey deakin and menzies. They will get either menzies or deakin due to redistribution but the other will strengthen for libs amd lilelylose aston as well highins mcewen and macnamara are at risk and so is dunkley now. Jagajaga will be less safe andcorangamite due to loss of geelong are to corio. Wills could be picked up by the greens as well. In sa Stuart is getable but so is boothby for libs. They will lose a seat in sydney as well due to abolition. Nsw they willl probly lose Gilmore and paterson at minimum. Lingiari will probly swing to libs as the polls there are dealdly to labor. Especiallyif they get jacinta price out there with whatever candidate. Soloman could be lost also. The reason they held lingiari in 2013 was because of snowdens personal vote but he’s gone. There are other seats vunerable innsw but most are 50/50. No way labor gets a majority they simply don’t have the umbers to burn like other first twrm govts. I agree the coalition probly doesn’t have the numbers but neither will labor I’m predicting labor to finish with around 70 seats.

5. @scart albo will last until 2028 max hell be licky to win the 2025 in minority il bet my first born on that

6. @John I respect your passion in this but I think that’s a bit tad dramatic for Labor, and really a worst-case scenario situation (which isn’t that bad overall compared to a landslide loss for example). Lyons and Gilmore will very likely to go, maybe Paterson but Meryl Swanson does have some degree of popularity and personal vote. Many of the new Labor MPs in WA and NT will have a sophomore surge unless if they mess up themselves which would help them weather any swing that is likely. In Victoria the Labor government has peaked but then again eastern Melbourne seems to be an area that has trended Labor regardless of political headwinds in recent years so it genuinely would’ve surprise me if they were able to get Deakin/Menzies/Casey or two or even three. I live in SA and Boothby might be in play but it will lean Labor, Nicolle Flint hasn’t got a chance with her divisive babble that’s been surfacing lately. If she was any good her margins would’ve increased instead of decreasing each election.

   I’d say if minority Labor will probably be around 72-75 seats, which isn’t that bad considering unlike 2010 the Coalition will at most end up in the low 60s at best and will need to convince the whole crossbench to form government.

   If the cost of living eases slightly or at least doesn’t worsen, and interest rates don’t go up again (economists generally expect them to be on hold rather than up or down) then there’s some degree of stability there for Labor to hone in on.

7. @John Sounds like you really don’t like Albanese or Labor or maybe you just want Liberals to win lol. Who knows what the political landscape will be like next year, let alone 2028.

8. @histpry tells us that unless govts are popular they tend to lose seats each election and with no backnench to burn that means minority for labor at best. The outlier for this is scomo in 2019 which was because shorten thought he could put forward his crazy polocies and still win that’s what costhim govt in 2019 . Albo is not krudd or Howard and it will be more like the 2010 eletion not 2019. There is no scenario where he can get majority. Labor can’t win menzies casey and deakin. They will win either deakin or menzies but it will be marginal and the other will strengthen for the libs they can’t win both. Casey should go back towards libs also. 2022 was their shotand they missed. 2025 will end with the li s gaining seats from labor but I dont think they can enpugh to fprm govt and the crossbench will support labor. The.ountain will be just too high to climb

9. The factors that only just got albo into govt no longer exist. Voters will return to the coalition now that the deadwood is gone.

10. @John I’d argue that the deadwood still exists in the Coalition with their ministers and the baggage they’ve carried for the last few years, and they don’t really have any proper policies that appeal to people. The electorate is becoming more progressive overall and I disagree with the proposition that the Coalition is the natural party that deserves to rule. They will keep losing voters in the long-term (and so will Labor too) if they don’t change.

11. Still half the voters who voted labor were voting against scottmorrison. Eg his stance on China and wa. Labor barely scrapped in to majority. And I think now are having buyers remorse. Without the teal seats libs canmot get majority this time. Labor may be running thecountry and albo the pm but they won’t be running the govt in 2025 they will be slaves to the crosbench. Labor are about to lost govt in ntand qld. They have lost their messiah in wa inmark McGowan so they won’t hold all of any of those wa gains. I think the libs can also make gains in Vic and nsw. I’m not saying the will be in govt and I’m not bias I said we would lose the 2022 election and only by q couple seats and I knew we would lose Vic but I correctly predicted we would hold my local seat inbenambra and predicged labor to govern ininority in NSW with about 45 seats. This govt is similar to gillards govt in 2010 except fpr the fa t that noone voted for labor because their leader was themessiah in krudd but because scomo was plagued by problemsthat saw a bare minimum majority to labor. I’m predicting a labor minority and can almost gurantee that the best case scenario for labor. To be honest I think that’s better for the libs anyway since the Senate will be hostile at worst and uncooperative at best for the libs

12. I mean, there’s still (probably) a year until the election. Who knows what will happen between now and then?

13. As mucj as i agree as soon as albo can get an advantage in the polls he will go. He wont wait around so they can go back down. Morrison should have gone in November 2021 and wouldve won

14. The earliest an Election can be called is August 3 2024, be surprised if Labor waited much longer.

15. At the moment polling aggregates have a 1% swing against the government on a national level, I don’t know how Labor would be close to losing 10+ seats on those numbers. I agree that Lyons, Gilmore and Tangney will be hard for Labor to hold, However I’d still favour Labor in pretty much all of their other seats at the moment.
    In fact Sturt, Leichhardt, Deakin, Menzies and Casey may be difficult for the Liberals to hold whilst the Greens could very well claim Wills, Macnamara and Richmond.

16. @gympie Except…there’s a Queensland election coming up in October and Albo can’t afford to throw away any opportunities to add seats by being caught up with the train wreck the State branch is bringing.

17. @kt1 the redistribution will put deakin or menzies notionally labor but will strengthen. The other for libs. Also 2022 was a highpoint for labor there it will return to liberals now labor are in govt. Labor barely got a swing I the state by election after a retiring member inside sturt no way will they win Sturt. Maybe on leichardt but I seriouslydoubt it. I think macnamara could go but richmond will probaly stay until at least 2028. Wa saw an unusual swing towards labor that will correct in 2025. Labor will lose at least 2 in wa possibly 3. Inididual seats swing above the average swing will see them lose at least 8 in my opinion.

18. One issue that everyone seems to be forgetting, is when will the new Commonwealth ICAC start announcing the outcomes of their investigations. There are many former Liberal Ministers who would be very nervous. I worked in Canberra for 8 years and I know the skeletons. Maybe we will see some Liberal Ministers go to jail. The Morrison government always reminded me of the Bjelke-Petersen – all God loving Christian people, but deep down not so good. Once the stories are know and out the Liberal Party will never govern in this country for many years to come.

19. @John I think we need to wait and see what happens with the redistributions, who knows what the AEC will propose, many of us have identified areas in which the most change will take place but their could be a few surprises as well.

20. Given theakeupof both deakin and menzies one will.be become marginally labor and still winnable for the libs and the other will strengthen and become insurmountable for labor especially after the correction now that libs arein opposition labor missed their chance in 2022

21. im hoping we can get at least one dropped this week

22. We are now about 2/3rds of the way through this term of parliament so maybe a good idea to how the government is tracking. According to Newspoll released recently it seems to be a status quo result in favor of Labor compared to the 2022 result. Albanese is neutral in terms of satisfaction which is actually better than when he was opposition leader when he actually had more dissatisfied than satisfied although Morrison was more unpopular. According to the Newspoll Labor primary is actually than at the 2022 election. However, there is still a very good chance of a minority Labor government based on geographic variances. Other polls showed a more even contest. The challenge for Labor as it was 2 years ago remains to bring inflation under control and they part of the way through that. There is still a risk that more economic turmoil could cost them. However, it does not seem culture wars are what is impacting the result, “It is the economy stupid”.

23. @Nimalan I think Labor will be banking on interest rates going down again sometime later this year and when the Stage 3 tax cuts plus $300 relief comes into play. Any sort of relief is going to be favourably looked upon by the people, but if it’s too minuscule to make an impact then voters may throw their anger at them even if they’re acting incrementally. In addition, voters in QLD and NT (at least on a state level) have turned against Labor, and if this translates federally then they could be in trouble holding their 3 seat majority. Having said that, there’s still a year to go so anything could be in play at this stage.

24. @Nimalan Newspoll is now a lot more favourable for Labor compared to other polls like Essenital, Morgan and even Resolve. Unless the economy improves significantly, there will be a hung parliament/minority Labor government.

25. @ Scart/Tommo9
    I think on current projection will be a minority Labor government but i dont see the Coalition coming close to an equal seat count unlike in 2010 when they won a notional majority and 73 seats (including tony crook) so probably unlikely Dutton can form a minority government. Generally, Newspoll is reliable but i agree an average of the polls is probably the best method to make a projection if an election was called now.

26. I knew that rising interest rates and historically high inflation rates (though coming down in recent quarters, according to the ABS) would catch up to Albanese and Labor and make a dent in their initial popularity sooner or later. The four highest CPI (measure of inflation) increases this century were all in 2022. Interest rates rose in response. Interest rates have been steady for a while but it’s anyone’s guess when they’ll drop.

    I think it’s interesting that despite the cost of living issues and the political leverage Dutton has, he and LNP haven’t made much cut through. Add to that, his side is very likely to win the NT and QLD elections.

27. It’s not uncommon for Governments to be behind in the polls at this moment of a term and considering Labor aren’t too far off from where they were in 2022 this could very well come back to them.
    Labor are probably hoping voters take their bats out at the Old and NT elections and move on.
    Most and if not all issues have been out of the governments hands and would have been difficult for the Coalition as well.
    We will need to wait and see what the AEC proposes in the redistributions because that could change the arithmetic.

28. Albo won’t even call the election until after the Queensland election. That’s my two cents.

29. @np i dont think he will either. voters in the north are waiting with baseball bats for the first labor government to come past. i dont think albo is gonna walk past them first

30. @Nether I agree with you re timing for Albo. March 2024 would give a small element of surprise (Aka Sunak in the UK election) rather than waiting til May. And speaking of the QLD State election, I don’t see the markets for QLD electorate betting on Sportsbet (mobile app). Have they since taken them down? Any other bookies running seat markets yet? Thanks Mark

31. Red Bridge Group and Accent Research have just dropped a new MRP poll one year out from the next election. It has predictions for ALL seats and statewide votes.
    https://redbridgegroup.com.au/the-political-landscape-a-year-from-the-2025-election/

    There aren’t many huge surprises and confirms many things I have long suspected – more Labor seats than Coalition seats; strong possibility of minority Labor government; Coalition closing in on Robertson, Gilmore and Lyons whilst Labor is closing in on Menzies and Deakin.

    Interesting points:
    1. No retreat in Labor’s WA pickups (Hasluck, Pearce, Swan, Tangney)
    2. Tangney – ALP 54 LIB 46
    3. Fowler – ALP 54 IND 46
    4. Brisbane – 50:50 (I thought Ryan would be the most vulnerable Greens seat)
    5. All teal seats, except for Curtin, will remain teal (based on current boundaries). Curtin is a tossup.

32. im not sure how accurate the individual seats will be as bradfield i reckon might be closer or even fall to the teal and calare will be much closer if andrew gee runs.i think wentworth will fall more towards the teal and i seriously doubt copwer will be an ind gain. it also does not take into account th redistribution in wa, nsw and vic which should favor the coalition.

    @votante they are effectively saying the status quo will remain and that effectively no seats will change hands, i think the coalition should gain anywhere between 8-12 seats not necessarily all from labor. but labor will retain govt albeit in minority

    1. there will be a retreat in WA for labor even labor are expecting this
    2. i think it might be closer (redistribution pending)
    3. i think it will be closer and fowler may not even exist yest
    4. bout where im at
    5. i expect that too with the exception of Kooyong

33. @mark i think he might try and sneak it in just before easter as if he were to call the election the day after the wa state he could hold it on april 11th

34. @Votante Brisbane is the most vulnerable Greens seat, because the greens are in third place on first preferences.

35. @ AA i reckon brisbane will flip back to the lnp not sure about ryan. on 2pp terms both are labor seats. if they can reverse this to being LNP on 2pp terms they will win them back off the greens griifth will be abit harder given its traditionally labor

36. I don’t think Brisbane would be more likely to vote LNP than Ryan as his opposition to The Voice may have alienated voters there (Brisbane has 56% Yes which is higher than Ryan which is 52% Yes)

37. *his which I meant Peter Dutton

38. @marh by that argument the majority of australia should have been alienated from labor and the greens for their support for the voice.

39. I really don’t think any of the three seats will change hands but Brisbane is a lower-hanging fruit because even on election night Antony Green said that Labor could’ve won it on LNP preferences or the Greens could’ve won it on Labor preferences but the LNP wouldn’t have been able to win it. Ryan is the most marginal of the three Greens seats but the Labor vote in the other two seats meant that Ryan was the first to be called with Griffith put as a likely gain and Brisbane put in doubt.

40. @Mark they were on the website yesterday, but I posted that comment on the Queensland thread not the federal thread.

41. @NP LNP would never drop to 3rd. maybe not in 2022 but in 2025 i think the lnp will have the wind in their sails this time around

42. I don’t see how there’s any chance of the LNP winning Brisbane again unless Labor do something drastic like putting the LNP above the Greens on their HTVs. The LNP are never going to get a 47% primary in Brisbane in the foreseeable future, which is what they’d need to win.

43. I think the Redbridge poll is full of inaccuracies and seems to lean heavily towards Labor. Here’s why:

    1. Most obviously, it isn’t taking into account the fact that NSW, Victoria, WA and the NT are undergoing a redistribution.
    2. The “other” vote is unspecific.
    3. The 50-50 seats should be called for a party.
    4. I doubt the independent will get 52% TCP in Cowper on its current boundaries despite getting 48% last time, but I really doubt an independent would get only 1% less primary votes than the Nationals but win with just 52%. Cowper is also heavily affected by the redistribution which will effectively determine if Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie stay in the same electorate which defines who would’ve most likely won the seat in 2022 on those boundaries (Port Macquarie and Kempsey voted Nationals, rural areas voted Nationals but Coffs Harbour narrowly voted for the local teal independent).
    5. Labor aren’t cracking 40% TPP in seats like Fadden and Mitchell.
    6. Why are there so many Labor/teal gains despite a nationwide swing to the Coalition, with not a single explicit Coalition gain (Blair has somehow improved for Labor despite their horror showing at the Ipswich West by-election earlier this year)?
    7. If the LNP get 41% in Brisbane, with Labor at 29% and the Greens at 22%, it cannot possibly be 50-50 and the Greens cannot possibly finish second. On those numbers Labor would win with like 54% TPP against the LNP.
    8. Labor and the Greens are apparently tied in Ryan but the Greens manage to finish first on TCP.
    9. The Greens are not getting 15% of the primary vote in Blair. I’m predicting that the LNP will finally gain Blair from Labor in 2025.

44. @wilson lnp will recover some of that 10% swing against them im thinking at least a 5% recovery. that would be enough to get them over the line in my opinion

    @nether portal the poll consisted of a sample 4040 covering the entire countries 151 divisions. also they note 9% couldnt give an answer and are in the “dont know”. that equates to just 26 people per division so its hardly accurate

    1. correct
    2. exactly
    3. i dont think there will be that many seats that close
    4. agreed
    5. sure
    6. because its a very small sample when you spread it across 151 divisions sure the 2pp might be somewhat right but i think the individual seats are off.
    7. a 41% primary would be enough to get the lnp to almost 50/50.
    8.
    9. me also agree

45. @john.. good points. One thing I have been thinking is that the last few redistributions have been unhelpful to the coalition in NSW and VIC. Maybe this time it might be different.

46. @Nether Portal
    1. I’d call Curtin, Deakin, Lingiari, Moore and Gilmore for the LNP, Robertson, Aston and Lyons for Labor, and Brisbane for the Greens (TBH I thought the Libs would be far more competitive in Ryan instead).
    2. Yeah TBH I doubt the teals will ever win a rural seat (besides Indi ofc).
    3. Well they nearly got there in Mitchell last time, and Hawke seemingly isn’t a popular MP. TBH Perrottet having a crack at the Feds wouldn’t be a bad idea.
    4. With Blair, I suspect maybe the FMIA act had something to do with it? Same goes for the Labor margins in Hunter, Shortland, Dunkley and McEwen (which are all reliant on manufacturing to some extent), and the decreased LNP margins in Flynn and Braddon.
    5. Perhaps AJP or LCP preferences helping the Greens in Ryan?
    6. I wouldn’t put money on the LNP picking up Blair just yet, but I agree that there’s no way that the Greens are picking up 15% there.

47. 10. The Greens aren’t cracking 11% in Kennedy, but if you look at the primary figures that would push Labor into second place.
    11. On those numbers Mayo would be CA vs Labor with a similar number, but I doubt the Greens will get 17% of the primary vote there anyway.
    12. There’s no way in hell the Liberals will only get 4% of the vote in Clark. That is extremely inaccurate. Andrew Wilkie will easily win with Labor finishing second and the Greens might even surpass the Liberals (highly unlikely though) but the Liberals won’t have that low of a vote. There are still suburbs of Hobart where the Liberals finish second to Wilkie such as Battery Point and Sandy Bay.
    13. Aston is technically the only Liberal gain not counting the tossups, and I should note that even then Aston was won by Labor at a by-election not at the federal election so Redbridge marks it as a Liberal retain.
    14. Unless One Nation or the UAP are getting big vote shares in Casey and Monash on the numbers Redbridge has released I would say Labor would win those seats due to the Greens vote being above 10% and the Labor primary vote not far off the Liberal primary vote (but I don’t think that will happen since the Greens vote won’t be that high in either of those seats).
    15. The Greens won’t get 15% of the vote in McEwen.
    16. Weird that Macnamara not only remains a Labor vs Liberal contest with the Greens being unable to win on those numbers, but it’s even weirder that it’s reverted to the usual situation (i.e the Liberals finishing first with Labor winning on Greens preferences).
    17. Why is there a >5% swing against the Greens in Melbourne?
    18. Why are the Liberals only winning 58% TPP in O’Connor?
    19. It’s impossible for the Liberals to get 41% in Durack with Labor at 25% and the Greens at 9% but the Liberals only get 53% TPP.

48. @mike the NSW and WA ones will be helpful to the Coalition due to new seats being created in coalition areas and ones abolished in teal/labor areas not to mention favourable boundaries in other seats in VIC i think it will be a neutral shift

    @Scart
    1. the lnp will probably win all of those labor seats and possibly the greens as well but those il call 50/50
    2. they could if the coalition were having a bad year but i suspect with col at the forefront they will bounce back
    3. Mitchell wil probably become more favouraable for the lnp after redistribution
    4. i reckon the coalition can pikcup blair(especially if neumann gets dumped), dunkley(without Peta murphy) and mcewen(on new boundaires), hunter and shortland will depend on how the redistribution goes though they cant win both one will probably strenghten the other weaken. given that shortland i s under and hunter over by about the same amount and dobell robertson and newcastle at quota moving the top end of lake macuarie into shortland would make shortland safer hunter would prbably fall
    5. probably but theyre drops in the ocean
    6. i would. the seat by seat poll is widely inaccurate given they sourced only 4000 people across 151 divisions. id put the coalition in with a fighting chance.

    the one problem this poll has its not taking into account the redistribution in 3 states and the territory. i seriously doubt albo will go before its finished as he would be handicapped by it even though the redistribution will hep the LNP he wont go before ts complete no PM has ever done it and i doubt it will be a first

49. @Scart good points:

    1. It isn’t just because it’s a rural seat, it’s actually mostly urban (more urban than Indi), but because the southern end of the seat has not only always voted Nationals throughout history (or Liberals in the case of Leslie Williams), but also the last independent Rob Oakeshott was an ex-National who ended up going from being a popular state MP to the most hated federal MP in the area’s history after refusing to support Tony Abbott’s effort to form government because of his pro-Turnbull position in the Abbott-Turnbull leadership turmoil.
    2. The AJP usually get like 1% or 2% of the vote in any seat.

50. @np
    10. nope
    11. doubtful because the greens vote would go to sharkie before labor
    12. yea
    13. aston will be retaken the libs yes
    14. casey and monash wont go labor no way
    15. …
    16.the greens wont win macnamara unles labor finihsed 3rd no way the libs will preference them
    17. magic
    18. its still abnormally weighted because of 2022 election
    19 as above

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