2025 Australian federal election

1. It has to be remembered that there is a strong ‘independent’ streak in Northern NSW. Tony Windsor held New England by a big margin until 2013. And Richard Torbay held Northern Tablelands. Indies have also had a good crack at Tamworth. A credible candidate – conservative but Tealish – could knock Barnaby off. Fiona Simson?

2. @raue is ns is abolished kyles tink will provblby be left without a seat because bradfield will be problby 70% of the old bradfieldso boulevard would gave more claim to runand has already indicated she would and it would still be notionally liberal. Kyles tink will lose bradfield anyway I reckon as aged be basically starting from scratch

3. Raue what happens if warringah and Wentworth are merged who would win?

4. @Redistributed, I can see an independent running on a regional issues, accountability, anti-establishment platform. Helen Haines and before her, Cathy McGowan, did so. Both were backed by a grassroots Voices for Indi movement. It was the first Voices group and the first to defeat a sitting MP.

   I agree that a good, strong, well-resourced independent candidate could be a threat to Barnaby or any regional MP.

5. @votante cathy mcgowan only won because sophie mirabella was aan outsider from melbourne who was parachuted in and was only elected because there wasnt any other choice and from what i saw personally and heard nooone really liked her and tbh i think she was abit up herself and even as a liberal voter can see why people protest voted against her. i think the libs have had really good candidates in both 2019 and 2022. barnaby wont get beaten. i think the independents will die off especially if they are forced to chose a side in minority government

6. @john Mirabella was a train wreck and her office was marginally worse. As a hobby I subscribe to Seek’s electorate office jobs, mainly due to morbid curiosity and quite a bit of using it to predict the future. Nothing says major drama like three or four positions that need filling advertised in one Seek post. Mirabella’s office had so many vacancies they could have saved money by just taking out a yearly subscription.

   Over the course of her time in Indi her vote was heading consistently down. For a seat that was widely considered a safe Liberal seat Victoria Liberal HQ definitely dropped the ball there.

   Long term, Barnaby’s numbers show the same trend.

7. @Votante New England is not as socially conservative as you might think, with Armidale and the University of New England in the electorate. Although he’s more likely to lose the seat through a preselection challenge.

   @John Jack Dempsey was a long-serving State Member for the National Party (2006-2015) and the Police Minister in the Newman Government. Probably not Climate 200 backed, 🙂 but was the Mayor of Bundaberg between 2016 and 2024 before stepping down.

8. @Mark Yore having visited several parts of New England I can say it’s just as conservative as the rest of rural Australia. The University of New England is in Armidale but Armidale itself is conservative. Same goes for Tamworth. Equally as conservative as the nearby seat of Lyne where I grew up.

9. @Neither Portal, looking at the results of last Fed Election and Voice Referendum, Armidale had some voting booths that Voted Labor in TPP and Yes while even others had a narrow National TPP and No Vote so can say it is a very similar to America Collage towns where it is a progressive enclave in the middle of a very conservative region.

10. new polling reveals the govt is going nowhere politically and it is doubtful they will call an election this year as they will want to hold n to their makority as long as possible

11. @Marh only around the University though. Armidale is a university city though, like how there are college cities in the United States. Armidale’s population peeks during university season.

12. A leading economist is predicting 3 rate Hills this year. That would bury the already struggling govt I think

13. I think given its flailing position in the polls the govt wont go early now they’ll want to old onto their majority as long as possible

14. And now time to wait for the redistribution…

15. Hopefully next week

16. @John my major proposals for the redistribution in NSW:

    * Bennelong becomes notionally Liberal
    * Bradfield is merged with North Sydney which will become notionally Liberal
    * Cowper loses Port Macquarie and Telegraph Point to Lyne, decreasing the Nationals’ notional margin against the independent
    * Gilmore becomes notionally Liberal after losing Kiama to Whitlam
    * Hunter becomes better for Labor after gaining Kurri Kurri and parts of western Maitland from Paterson and all of the northwestern Maitland suburbs and nearby towns from Lyne while losing Muswellbrook and maybe even Singleton to New England
    * Lyne becomes better for the Nationals after gaining Port Macquarie and Telegraph Point and losing any southern booths near Maitland; Lyne loses every booth that voted Labor in 2022 as they were all in Maitland
    * Newcastle doesn’t change at all
    * Page loses Woolgoolga to Cowper, barely affecting the Nationals’ margin
    * Paterson keeps Port Stephens, Hexham and most of Maitland while gaining some rural areas south of Bulahdelah from Lyne and losing Kurri Kurri and parts of western Maitland to Hunter, Paterson therefore becomes a notionally Liberal seat
    * Richmond doesn’t change at all

    NSW will see the most seats notionally flip. I think it will also have complications for the Liberals in Western Sydney, an area where state Labor and the state Liberals are very competitive but on the federal level the Liberals haven’t seen much recent success in, particularly in seats like Greenway and Parramatta which should be key seats given that Parramatta and Riverstone are two top-tier target seats in NSW.

17. The draft redistribution is currently expected to be released late May / early June, fyi

18. On current polling I find it hard to see a path for Labor to a majority government, even harder to see a path for the LNP to a minority government. Most likely outcome a minority Labor Government. Labor’s policy on gas I reckon has just handed the Teals a re-election platform

19. @Babaluma thanks for the reminder.

    I already made two target seat maps for the next federal election using the current boundaries but when the redistribution is released I’ll make a new one.

    Unless I can find a shapefile or KML file of the proposed boundaries, my map for the proposed boundaries will use the current boundaries but the target seats would be shaded according to their new boundaries. When the redistribution is fully finalised I’ll definitely have a map with the updated boundaries and the target seats shaded.

    In the mean time, feel free to make any suggestions for my updated map for seats in Queensland, SA, Tasmania and/or the ACT as they are not undergoing a redistribution (NSW, Victoria, WA and the NT are undergoing a redistribution, but the NT will be exactly the same). As for my other maps, target seat maps for other states and for the NT will be made soon and I might update my partisan index map (based on the Cook Partisan Voting Index in the USA) for Queensland and maybe even create one for the NT. As for the partisan index maps, I only make them when elections are relatively close (within one year) and when there is consistent polling showing a similar trend to the last poll (though there has only been one poll in the Territory so far).

20. @np I think Bennelong and Paterson will notionally flip. Hunter in my opinion should shed parts of lake Macquarie to Shortland given that under quota and is surround by dobell and Newcastle which are t quota and no need to alter them. Parramatta will become less safe due to taking in parts of Bennelong and Mitchell and she’s parts of Cumberland becoming solely based in Parramatta city. Greenway will shed some of its southern parts but still be Labor this time around. Bradfield is my concern for the libs after ns gets abolished making itvunerable to the teals. Gilmore will shed Eurobodalla to EM but Andrew Constance should still win it. Em could fall to the libs also. This will be the strongest state in terms of libgains along with wa. I can’t see either side getting a majority this time around and I’m still tipping Labor minority.

21. So there’s speculation. That there will be an early election after this budget. I can’t see the govt going early because with the polls they will more then likely go into minority so I think they will hold on as long as possible. I think the redistribution will benefit the coalition but even with the current boundaries Labor would lose its majority anyway. They would lose 1 in Vic to the Higgins Chisholm merger and likely lose Menzies and Deakin rather then get one after redistribution. In wa they would lose hasluck and possibly Cowan even though they’d win cowan-hasluck. Nsw has the most likely benefit if they go early. They’d keep the central Sydney seat but still lose a teal ally due to the merger

22. I doubt they will call an election until the redistributions are complete in NSW, Victoria and WA. To do so otherwise will create confusion and disorder with the various combinations and splitting of existing electorates, and create an unfavourable impression that the government is somehow responsible (even though we in this forum space know and understand otherwise – that its a legislative requirement – 99.9% of the general populace would have no such background knowledge).

23. @nq view the govt will go when it is most beneficial to them they will msot likely go early if the budget gets them a bounce in the polls. personally i cant see them going early and will wait until may due how full the calendar is next year with holidays and the wa election but they may decide to risk it all this year but i cant see any scenario where labor can get a majority again hence why i think they will go ful term to preserve that as long as possible due to not wanting to be in minority or possibly risk an upset loss to the coalition

24. albo just booted out one of his tenants 🙁

25. I still think the election will be in May 2025, after the WA election and Easter school holidays. It’s not just the redistribution business but also there is the prospect of inflation rate and RBA cash rate decreases, which Labor are banking on for a boost to their popularity and improve their economic narrative. There’s no silver bullet here but they do want to maximise their parliamentary term.

    @John, I think the media is over sensationalising the eviction. To be fair, Albanese is charging him rent that is below market rates. Also, he gave his tenant a 90 day eviction notice when the minimium is 30 days.

26. @votabnte I was in mypropeety for nearly 11 months after getting 90 days notice. Still Couldn’t get another one. Back to shared living. Next to i.possible unlessyou got a 2 full time job at these.no chance if your a pensioner and have a disability

27. Wasn’t sure where to put this but I’ve made a map comparing the Yes votes for the Voice and same-sex marriage in each seat (it took over two hours to make). You can view it here: https://jmp.sh/BvxNEBer

    Blue seats had a higher Yes vote for same-sex marriage, while red seats had a higher Yes vote for the Voice. Darker seats had a bigger difference and lighter seats had a smaller differences (it goes up by fives so really light is under 5% difference while seats while really dark seats had over 35% difference).

    You can see some stark differences nationwide. It’s very pronounced in regional and rural areas but even in most major cities, with differences of over 20% across all of the Gold Coast, the Central Coast, the Sunshine Coast and Darwin. Big differences can also be seen in Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Newcastle, Geelong and Hobart.

    In Brand (WA), Canning (WA), Dawson (QLD), Durack (WA), Fadden (QLD), Flynn (QLD), Herbert (QLD), Hunter (NSW), Kingston (SA), Longman (QLD) and Paterson (NSW), the Yes vote for same-sex marriage was over 35% higher than the Yes vote for the Voice. In Barker (SA), Capricornia (QLD), Farrer (NSW), Gippsland (VIC), Grey (SA), Hume (NSW), Indi (VIC), Mallee (VIC), Moore (WA), Nicholls (NSW), O’Connor (WA), Parkes (NSW), Pearce (WA) and Spence (SA), the Yes vote for same-sex marriage was over 30% higher than the Yes vote for the Voice.

    In contrast, the difference was only small in Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Wollongong. In only two seats in those seats was Yes vote for same-sex marriage was over 20% higher than the Yes vote for the Voice: Dunkley in Melbourne, Lindsay in Sydney and Whitlam in Wollongong (which technically only covers the southern half of Wollongong, i.e Shellharbour, and also covers the Southern Highlands). The only cities that voted Yes to both the Voice AND same-sex marriage were Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart.

    Only five seats had a higher Yes vote for the Voice than the Yes vote for same-sex marriage. They were Barton, Blaxland, Parramatta, Watson and Werriwa, all of which are electorates in Sydney with high ethnic populations that rejected both the Voice and same-sex marriage.

28. @ Nether Portal
    Really good analysis love the map. To take the analysis a step further. I would compare each electorates result to the voice referendum and SSM vote compared to the national vote. The National vote for Voice was 60.6 no for voice and 61.60 Yes for SSM. My seat of Menzies voted 54.86 against the voice and 56.95 Yes to SSM so compared to the national vote it was 5.74% Pro Voice compared to the nation but was 4.65% anti SSM compared to the nation. Following that you can do a 3rd map to see if electorates for prefer voice or SSM compared to Australia as a whole.

29. @Nimalan will do. I was thinking of doing a Republic referendum one but that would be difficult since a lot of redistributions have happened since then.

30. Oops I just realised I forgot Banks.

31. YouGov ALP/30%. If they wait until next year it might turn out okay, but it might be a bloodbath too.
    I’d say go early August and put Scott Morrison at the centre of the campaign.
    Palaszczuk did that with Campbell Newman and won 3 Elections.

32. @ nether portal
    You can absolutely do a Republic referendum one. Ben has already mapped out 1999 results on currently boundaries and Drake had also done some calculations check the Corio 2022 thread for details. There are some seats which voted more for the voice than the Republic.

33. @gympie scott morrison is gone. labors trying to paint peter dtton as lord voldemort atm.

34. @john

    What about the mas of voters like me who have no idea who Lord Voldemort is?

35. Every government since Gough has been elected twice at least. I suspect the Albanese govt will also be relected. It will be close whether there is a alp majority or minority government. As indeed was the case in 2022. The problem for the libs is when they lose what happens with Dutton should he resign and also quit parliament… who takes over?

36. Labor PMs mantra since Whitlam could almost be:
    If I don’t sack any Ministers for incompetence, it will appear we’re competent.

37. MQ, Whitlam won 2 elections. It may have been short terms, but it was still 2 elections.

    James Scullin 1929-1931 was the last 1 term government.

38. @micheal daniel t is correctwvery governemtnsince scullin has been elected twice and I too beleive labor will be relectrd albeit in minority due to the teals proping 7o the left govt against the will of their electorates. That said records ate made tobe broken. Until 2023 no govt had ever takena seat off of an opposition.

39. @John indeed records are made to be broken but that’s not saying it will always happen. Given the Coalition’s lack of policy direction I doubt they’re in a position to make any records unless something catastrophic happens to the government within the year.

    The best outcome for the government is potentially the same number of seats (there’s still a few that Labor could take off the Coalition), or fall about one or two seats short of majority, mostly at the gains of the Greens and independents who’d probably support Labor on confidence and supply only. Coalition are a long way from even minority government, particularly if they’re abandoning the teals and inner-city seats.

40. @tommo labor are barelyahead in the polls they have no hope of majority government. They will lose at least 3 in wa at least as many in NSW and lingiari and Lyons at minimum. Thecoalition iny opinion needs to get at least 70 seats to get into minority. I think they will fall short butinmyopi tionthat is the best option is to forxe labor to wheel and deal and sell themselves out that way they can spend the next 3 years pullin labor apart and will retake all the teal seats in 2028 however i think keeping spender in wentowrth works out better in the long run given the seat would be marginal at best given the redistr

41. The two party preferred numbers should be written in pencil considering how low the Labor primary is. Predicting the preference flows from that far back is super questionable and seat fluctuations really make it super hard to predict (aka breakdown of preferences from independent, one nation and green votes in each seat will vary greatly). It should be a very interesting election night and minority is almost certain.

42. As much as some would like to see Labor tear themselves apart and Dutton become PM from a realistic angle I think majority is still possible (by about 1 or 2 seats) or a minority (fall short by about 1 or 2 seats) is more likely but Labor is still in a better position to govern than the Liberals/Nationals at the moment. It’s not like they’ll magically gain 10-20 seats in one election cycle given Albanese isn’t as polarising as the likes of Abbott or Newman.

    Liberals will likely gain Gilmore and Lyons (Lingiari is interesting, the remote communities vote Labor in droves but Alice Springs and Katherine are CLP strongholds, could be a very marginal ALP retain given they retained it in the 2013 landslide). But Labor could very much gain seats like Sturt, Deakin, Menzies, Casey etc if they play their cards right (A big if). In WA it’s unlikely the seats they gained in 2022 will fall in one cycle (except maybe Tangney but even then they have a seemingly-popular incumbent). The margins means that there will be a swing but will only really make the seats marginal if anything. Unlike QLD and NT WA Labor isn’t on the nose and should be able to maintain their gains mostly.

43. @Nimalan here’s my map for the electorate vs nationwide Yes vote in the Voice referendum: https://jmp.sh/yjtvuOvC

44. I don’t think the next election will be as bad for Labor as others are speculating. Cost of Living and inflation are issues which have hurt Labor, mostly due to factors out of their control and the Libs don’t really seem to have any vision or policies nor is there a mood for change. If Inflation slows and Interest rates are cut the mood could very much change and the Libs would have basically no talking points other than nuclear power and Israel-Palestine.

    We’ll need to wait and see the changes from the redistributions because that could well change the arithmetic albeit modestly.

45. KT1 – The two issues that you omit to mention are the cost and availibility of housing, and immigration. The Libs will go hard on the latter and to my mind will resonate with the community as there is a correalation. Should immigration resonate then Labor might be forced to adopt something similar. Housing of course has been decades in the making and wont be a quick fix. Otherwise the Libs are pretty much policy free and with few effective performers. Should the Libs lose and Dutton goes – no gaurantee if it is close – then the only conceivable leadership contender would seem to be Andrew Hastie.

46. @Redistributed, I think a lot of people may see the Liberals line of attack quite disingenuous considering they’ve only been in opposition for two years especially on immigration, and that Labor is trying to neutralise it as an issue by cutting the rate of migration. As for housing you are quite right and Dutton’s scaremongering over the issue is plain opportunism, it simply isn’t an issue that can be fixed in one term of government.
    As for the Liberals depth, other than Dutton the only realistic leaders are Tehan, Taylor and Hastie, and none of them seem to be viable options at this time.
    Kudos to Dutton for softening his image, I just read the latest Quarterly Essay and it really highlights how unpopular he could be if many of his past statements and views come back into public consciousness, although it really does explain as to why he’s going so hard on immigration.

47. @KT1 yes I’d have to agree with the assessment about Dutton. His ‘softening’ of his image seems to be all for show and a lot of his minions in the Coalition appear to be copying or imitating his hard-man style politics ever since they got into opposition. People will remember him for being the Health minister that tried to introduce a co-payment into medicare, made immigration rules almost inhumane and the guy who tried to gazump Malcolm Turnbull for his own leadership ambitions.

    I think his likability (or lack of I should say) could also play a role in determining the election outcome. A lot of people are swing voters that might consider the Liberals (particularly if they have some sort of resonating policy), but are turned off by Dutton. The younger generation in particular is overwhelmingly in this cohort. People talk about Bill Shorten being unlikable yet he would have a better chance at winning an election than Dutton ever will (unless if Labor does something that is completely unacceptable), and even Tony Abbott, despite his tomfoolery, at least has some sort of charisma that relates to people. Dutton has none of that.

48. I think the LNP’s stance on immigration is good. This is arguably the issue in which both major parties have been the most out of touch (something like 65% of people think that 500k immigrants per year during a housing crisis is too much). Plus, running population growth to housing at a ratio of 4:1 is objectively unacceptable.

49. @KT1 also Labor are no chance of lowering immigration (and even if they do, 250k per year is still roughly the 3rd highest levels on record, too high whilst new housing is at its lowest rate in 12 years). And if they get in coalition with the Greens (or possibly still even if they are with the Teals) after the next election, you can bet that they’ll be at 500k for as long that coalition is enacted.

50. @Scart, The problem with lowering the rate of immigration is that there are many industries such as health and aged care which have a shortage of workers and addressing that shortfall without immigration will take decades to fix. Another problem would be reducing international students in which contribute a huge source of revenue for the tertiary education systems, one of our largest industries.
    With housing, a combination of factors is at fault, lowering immigration isn’t going to be a silver bullet that fixes the current lack of supply and will need a decades long bipartisan solution.

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