Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the next Australian federal election. This guide will include comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2022 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
On this page you can find links to each individual profile for all House of Representatives electorates, and the Senate contests in the six states and the two territories.
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Table of contents:
Local electorate profiles
Profiles have been produced for all 150 House of Representatives electorates.
You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile:
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Senate profiles
Profiles have been written for the Senate races in all six states and both territories.
- New South Wales
- Victoria
- Queensland
- Western Australia
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- Tasmania
- Australian Capital Territory
- Northern Territory
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@daniel t labor just dont seem to have what it takes to govern federally. at a state level they are about health and education the staples of what people want. federally they dont stand for anything bcause people epect their federal govt to be good at things like border and national security. these are not labors strong suits and given the party is more to the left then it use to be they are weak in these areas. they are basically the party of protest when pople get sick and tired o the coalition. in 2007 everybody loved kevin07 the man from qld who was “here to help” everybody but his own party. they disintegrated quikly and should have lost the 2010 but only survived because of two turncoat nationals backing the other team. now well lets face it noone voted for labor and albo they were mainy coting against scott morrison. albo is more focused on token policies like climate change and the voice instead of the real issues. he also is going from one crisis to the next but its never his fault.
@Daniel T Except Labor weren’t unpopular under Rudd, they got us through the GFC (albeit with significant help from Howard’s 10 surpluses and China), led by a greater margin than the 07 election for most of their term, and were so confident that Abbott was unelectable that some Labor MPs held a fucking party the day after he became Leader of the Opposition.
But what should they do to win more often? That is my question. What policies should they moderate or scrap?
It’s not in Labor’s corporate DNA to take a firm position on anything, apart from promising the world and not delivering.
Take 2022 – Labor won on the perception that Brittany Higgins had been done wrong by the Morrison Cabinet and Albo would put all that behind us.
The other day we learn that the Defence Minister’s COS has been locked out of her office for 5 months, told to look for another job, no other communication to her from the Government and the Governmet is now lawyerig up.
No solution, but Labor is a Party of Permanent Opposition, even when it’s in Government.
@Nimalan every single Tasmanian Aboriginal (i.e Aboriginals who have heritage in Tassie) is what’s commonly called a “half-caste”, which is essentially someone who is half-Aboriginal. Truganini was the last “full-blood” Tasmanian Aboriginal as well as the last person who spoke a Tasmanian Aboriginal language as their mother tongue (or native language). She died in 1876. Palawa Kani (literally meaning “Aboriginal language”; Palawa Kani is the Aboriginal language used in Tassie now, mostly in place names e.g Lutruwita/Tasmania, Nipaluna/Hobart) is a constructed language based on words from various Tasmanian Aboriginal languages and dialects.
@Daniel T Labor should go back to standing up for the working-class instead of standing up for union bosses and become more moderate instead of trying to be woker so they can pick up a couple of new voters who would otherwise vote Greens.
Labor did get us through the GFC but as Scart said it was only because the economy was so damn good under Howard, it’s just that Rudd didn’t completely fuck it up either.
Also, Labor are currently in power federally and in every jurisdiction bar Tasmania and the Northern Territory, so I don’t think Australia is a “right-wing wasteland”.
Agree John, Gympie and NP – Labor in its current form is not really suited to governing federally because you have to offer strategic direction and priorities for the nation which appear to be strong points for the Coalition. Labor under Hawke-Keating were successful because they were like Tony Blair as UK Prime Minister, being statesman like.
At the same time, Labor can govern well at the state level because the priorities are more of a localised theme focusing on infrastructure development and service delivery. Particularly when the Coalition parties are too busy engaging with internal disputes or fringe issues. Having said that, there have been successful Coalition governments too, with NSW and Tasmania being the two recent ones that held onto power for 10+ years, mostly by avoiding too much infighting and prioritising state development as their talking points.
The comments here definitely have a liberal hue. Remember most au elections are close. 1998 2010 2016 2019 and to a lesser extent 2022( small absolute majority but coalition were quite a distance from a majority)
Morrison anticipation contributed to 2019 win.and
Morrison in office contributed to 2022 win.
But he was not the only reason the lnp in government grew lazy and corrupt . Their fighting about climate change policy and refusal to have an icac were major reasons for rhe Teals 7 seats. The 2025 election will again be close .majority alp minority alp minority lnp or a very outside chance of lnp majority. Seats like Whitlam Werriwa Paterson Dobell Eden Monaro Parramatta will not change hands. In Queensland Blair will not change hands and labor has a chance in Leichhardt. At best the lnp will win.Ryan off the greens.
The best case in Victoria is the status quo for the libs with a chance of labor winning 1 to 2 seats. Sa similar with an alp chance in Sturt. Lingari had a transition of mp in 2022 there is a good chance the alp mp can entrench themselves. Lyons is not certain to shift parties nor is Gilmore or Bennelong . Most teals and independents will be reelected
@Mick Quinlivan I think Paterson will flip.
@ NP
I am hoping Palawa will one day show up in Lyons, Braddon etc as the main minority language and hope more people speak it.
@mick Whitlam Dobell and Eden Monato May not change hands but they will be seriously eroded back to marginal seats. I believe Paterson is already lost and the coalition have outside chances in Werriwa and Parramatta. Blair will be a line ball because of current polling in qld but I believe Neumann May just hold it. There is virtually no chance of a labor majority and labor minority is seeming to be just as likely as coalition minority the longer he waits for an election the easier it is going to be for the libs to form minority or majority. Albos purchase of a $4.3m house on a clifftop in robertson isn’t going to help him while Australia is in the middle of a cost of living crisis. Albo has basically taken advantage of economic circumstances that his govt has created to get a better deal on the house. I would wager this May cost him seats like robertson. I doubt the people of robertson will take too kindly to albo moving in to their electorate in a mansion while they are struggling with their house payments and putting food on the table. The member for Parramatta isn’t exactly doing it tough like the people he represents either. Sturt is as likely to flip to labor as boothby is to flip back.
@nether portal Paterson is gone no-one expects her to hold that seat
@mick retty much the opposite of what theyre doing now
well if the $4.3M hosue didnt cause problems the $100m taxpayer funded road sure will
Just a quick update from the UK: the leadership race for the Conservative Party is between Kemi Badenoch (a culture warrior who has just been accused of “stigmatising” autistic people like myself, though if elected she would be the first black leader of a major party in the UK) and Robert Jenrick (known for his hardline stances on illegal immigration). Badenoch is the favourite to win and she already has narrowly won the MPs’ fourth ballot with 34.7% of the vote. In the fifth ballot either her or Jenrick will become leader as James Cleverly (the third-placed candidate in the fourth ballot) has been eliminated (Priti Patel was eliminated in the first MP’s ballot, Mel Stride in the second, Tom Tugendhat in the third and now James Cleverly has been eliminated in the fourth).
Hypothetically, what would happen in the impossible scenario that Donald Trump becomes President of the USA, Peter Dutton becomes Prime Minister of Australia, Pierre Poilievre becomes Prime Minister of Canada and Kemi Badenoch becomes Prime Minister of the UK, and Chris Luxon remains Prime Minister of New Zealand? Would that be the most right-wing Five Eyes in history?
We’ve probably got one of the most left wing Five Eyes in history right now, with Albo, Trudeau, Biden and Starmer, and Luxon who is a relatively pragmatic and moderate conservative. Plus the next UK election isn’t until 2029, by which point Trump will be gone from the WH (though Vance or DeSantis or Tulsi Gabbard or some other MAGA Republican may still win the 2028 election)
Np I r e c’mon we will see that in 2029 the new UK labour govt is up the creek already. I’m predicting it to be a one term govt
I think the republicans are well placed to win in 2028. The democrats don’t have much depth atm
@Scart it would’ve been more left-wing before the 2023 NZ general election because Chris Hipkins was a progressive Labour PM. Luxon is a bit like Dutton, he is socially conservative it’s just that he doesn’t push socially conservative laws (e.g he is anti-abortion but promised not to change NZ’s abortion laws). National are in a coalition with ACT (led by David Seymour) which is a right-wing libertarian party and NZ First (founded and led by Winston Peters) which is populist and social right-wing but economically left-wing (like KAP). Interestingly both Seymour and Peters are part Māori (Seymour is Ngāpuhi Māori on his mother’s side while Peters is Māori on his father’s side and is of Ngāti Wai, Ngāti Hine and Ngāpuhi descent).
Vader, to who? The Tories are not winning under Badenoch or Jenrick. Maybe Cleverely would have had a chance.
If Labour is losing it will to Reform. PM Farage is more likely than Badenoch. I am British and I know this myself, you have no idea what my people are thinking, they are not electing Badenoch.
Also you aren’t turning around a 170 majority either, Labour will likely be in minority and need to rely on the Lib Dems to govern.
I have seen a repetition on platforms where people are overestimating the chances of conservatives parties only to be disappointed on election night. Historically the right has over-performed polls however the left has before and will again.
And unlike Australia, turnout matters in the UK since we don’t have mandatory voting. Allot of people didn’t vote in 2024 because people knew the outcome.
Nether Portal, when was the last time the 5-eyes (Australia, NZ, Canada, UK and USA) all had leaders from the same side of the political spectrum? The closest we have had in my memory is about now, (only NZ has a conservative government)
Was there a time where all 5 agreed were the same? I imagine you would have to go back to the late 1940’s but I could be wrong.
Or maybe a brief period in 1960 between NZ Nationals victory and the election of JFK?
Trump won’t win, unfortunately Harris will win and I think Australia should scrap AUKUS if she wins, she is a disgrace and I will stop looking at US politics if she wins (I refused to watch the Midterms btw) she and Trump are both unfit and refuse to pick between them, She is not welcome in Australia nor is Trump.
I will support Dutton if she wins because I want someone to stand up to her when she is wrong, Albo being a leftie like her will just lick her shoes and won’t stand up to her when she is clearly wrong for Australia.
For the most part a poor politican does not exist. Mr Dutton is mega rich just via his property portfolio alone. Stuart Robert before he retired owned multiple properties he held in a trust this was not proper disclosure but neither Mr Dutton or Mr Morrison were troubled by this. I wrote a letter at one stage to the qld president of the lnp suggesting Mr Robert be retired within 12 months he did step down… I would like to think I had some influence but of course I had none. To criticise Mr Albanese for a splinter where as Mr Dutton has a giant redwood tree is a bit rich. The best way to go toward is to cut back negative gearing and reduce capital gains concessions. I would also argue that capital assets be taxed on their own
Trump is not fit for public office….he is sane I hope but he is “conman ” who happened to graft himself onto part of us politics. He has firm beliefs in himself only and fulfilled the description of spoilt and rich.I know of no other us politican who tried to incite a riot as he did. Basically he does not believe in democracy yet he stands for probably the most important elected office in the world. Trump would not be elected to any public office within Australia.
@Daniel T I’m not sure since when National won the NZ election last year the Conservatives were still in power.
@Mick it’s not the fact he’s rich it’s the fact he’s buying a retirement house when he’s supposed to be on for the foreseeable future during a time when most Aussies are struggling to even find a home. Stuart Robert was retired because he was apart of that Morrison era that they wanted to free dutton of.
“Same side of politics” is a very broad brush when comparing between countries. It’s sometimes even a broad brush comparing different leaders of the same party. Starmer for example is not much of a leftist. So far he’s been indistinguishable from a moderate conservative like Sunak or Cameron, and nothing like his predecessor Corbyn. He’s much more comparable to someone like Luxon than to Ardern despite the similarly-named parties.
@Daniel T The last time the Five Eyes were all left-wing was in 1949, just before NZ and Australia elected conservatives near the end of that year.
The last time they were all on the right was in 1961 just before JFK’s inauguration, though they did hold a 4-1 majority as recently as 2017 when Trudeau was the only outlier.
@Daniel t trump will win. Harris’ campaign is falling apart at the wrong moment she’s basically begging Donald trump for a debate because she is about to lose. The same reason she’s so desperate she has decided to do a fox interview.
@Mick they won’t change negative gearing they’ve already lost 2 elections over negative gearing. They aren’t gonna fight another one. Too many average voters take advantage of negative gearing plus many pollies. If they go after it again they will lose because they are already on a knife edge. Trump didn’t try ad invite armor he simply asked his supporters to turn up and protest. They were in no way violent and were effectively let in by security. They locked up the protesters because they were trump supporters less people went to jail when the BLM protests caused massive damage and deaths. Trump is no more unfit for public office then Harris or Biden or most politicians for that matter.
The West Report has called out Dutton’s hypocrisy on him wanting to ban TikTok only to use the platform himself. Jokes on him cause China now knows his every move
https://youtu.be/1BOaP4twp2w?si=qQ_StQGtlCowTZcV
@Caleb “You hate society, yet you still participate in it. Curious” is basically your comment.
Plus Michael West is incredibly biased.
West is better read than listened to, tho he’s far less annoying than FriendlyJordies, but he’s working on it.
His spiel is “I’m not promoting the Labor Party … Rome wasn’t built in a day … Inflation is lower than many other countries [Congo] … MSM is on the LNPs side …
Basically, Labor is panicked that LNP have finally woke up to Alt Media, West is playing gatekeeper, it’s weak sauce.
@Scart everyone is biased
They’ve just released the first September gazette numbers or the redistributed wa seats. https://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/gazetted/2024/09.htm trends already started.
Given she was married why did the aec use Vivian bullwinkels maiden name and not her legal name (Statham)?
Do we have eta for updated federal guide? I know you said after qld just wanting to know if you have something more specific. No rush.
@Daniel T what Greens/teal seats are you predicting will flip?
Based on ACT results Bean would be better for the Liberals but remember the ACT Liberals are more moderate so I doubt they’ll gain Bean. Same goes with Franklin in Tassie or Solomon in the NT which were won by the Liberals and the CLP respectively on the state/territory level where the parties are more moderate but won’t be won by the federal Coalition.
@np I wouldn’t write off Solomon tbh especially if the nt govt is seen doing something on crime and a honeymoon swing.
@John Especially considering that RedBridge did a poll last year, and the territory level result was very similar to the federal level result in the NT
NP, I will make a preliminary prediction.
(>90% Chance Liberal Gains) – Gilmore, Lyons, Lingiari, Tangney, Paterson, Bullwinkel (National), Hunter, Blair & Menzies (Notional)
(75%-90% Chance Liberal Gains) – Kooyong, Mackellar, Ryan, Curtin, Robertson, Parramatta, McEwen, Werriwa, Shortland & Dobell
(50%-75% Chance Liberal Gains) – Chisholm, Reid, Bruce, Macquarie, Corangamite, Solomon, Pearce & Swan
(<50% Chance Liberal Gains [But Still In Play If Things Get Worse]) –
Boothby, Brisbane, Goldstein, Indi, Eden-Monaro, Holt, Hawke, Greenway, Richmond (3 Way Race), Whitlam, Moreton, Macarthur, Hasluck, Lilley, Cowan, Bendigo & Gorton
(<25% Chance Liberal Gains [Landslide Territory Liberal Gains {Unlikely}) – Franklin, Kingsford Smith, Burt, JagaJaga, Adelaide, Oxley, Rankin, Warringah, Wentworth, Ballarat, McMahon, Isaacs, Hindmarsh, Dunkley & Maribyrnong (Due To Parachuted Candidate Although This Is If Labor Losses In A Landslide)
I am getting around 85-90 seats for the Coalition, but it could be much worse. I am basing this off if Albo calls it for May. If it was held today. the government would probably only lose 10 seats (most on the top row and a couple of the 75% chance seats) But I assume the coalition will be up 53-47 by May so I base it off a federal swing of 5% and the backlash won't be as bad in the inner cities so Labor's vote will be WASTED in the inner cities inflating the coalition seat total.
Call me bluff, but if left-leaning people like me are saying Albo is in huge trouble, My family historically are very center-left individuals and we are not happy with the left right now.
I didn't mention seats Labor could lose to the Greens, Labor could be reduced to just 40 seats if it was reverse 2022, Labor could lose 4-5 to the Greens and another 3-4 to anti-teal candidates (Like Dai Le) If Frank Carbone runs in McMahon he could win or help a coalition victory in that seat.
Things are bad for Labor, even Kos Samaras is saying things are getting bad for the government in the western suburbs of Melbourne and ''traditional safe places'' The government primary vote is in danger of lose tons of seats (even the ones I deem as ''unlikely'' to be lost)
If Labor losses another 3-4% on the primary vote which is what I predict will happen by May, half of those (<25% seats) will be lost to the coalition. Dutton will get a 1996 style victory.
The coalition are frontrunners to win now, but if an election was held today it would be a hung parliament.
I will remind people the British Labour government lost in 1979 and Thatcher came to power due to very poor economic conditions, Had Labour called a 1978 election, polls said they could have won it, but they waited and waited and they lost badly in May 1979.
Albo is playing a dangerous political game waiting until May.
@daniel t Gilmore Lyons lingiari bullwinkel tangey paterson and bennelong are certain gains for the lnp. As well as a notional gain of Menzies. Labor will likely lose wills and macnamara to the greens and Richmond will likely flip too just not sire which way. If the libs put a candidate up I’d give them good odds. All those I’d rate as not falling up until a week ago but albos seemingly doing his best at losing them.
@Daniel T interesting thoughts. If the Greens vote goes backwards in Moggill like it did at the BCC election in Pullenvale then maybe the Greens are in trouble in Ryan (though Dutton is hard right so that might make a difference).
@John I don’t think Richmond will fall and Macnamara would be a hard gain too. Remember Macnamara and Richmond were both marginal seats as recently as 2019 for Richmond and 2016 for Macnamara.
Canberra Liberals look pretty Moderate, didn’t do them a whole lotta good.
Blaming ‘Right Wingers’ a reactinary response in itself.
Leader dresses in black.
What’s that all about?
-Np yea but albo is doing his best to lose seats and with only small margins keeping them in the 2cp it’s likely that will happen. Richmond regional and Labor facing a swing against them elliot even lost almost 3 % when coming from opposition
I can almost guarantee Richmond is lost. Too low a primary and with Labor in govt can’t see it getting g better a moderate liberal could win the sear over the greens given the seats regional nature. After elliot is gone can see them picking up most of her centrist vote.
@Nether Portal greens vote only dropped by .2% on first preferences while the TCP drop was inflated due to exhausted votes
Aside from Terri butler in Griffith has an incumbent never made the 2cp before
Caleb ??
@Daniel T. Gilmore, Lyons, Lingiari, Tangey, Paterson and Bullwinkel are all gone. Hunter should just hold against anything but a landslide. Blair I’m giving 50/50 depending on the qld state vote bleedover.
Kooyomg I’ll give 50/50 odds. Mackellar will likely hold. Ryan will be interesting and I think Curtin will flip back. Robertson McEwen Parramatta Werriwa all good chances. I think barring a landslide Shortland and Dobell will hold albeit marginally.
Chisholm and Solomon could go either way. Bruce Reid Macquarie Pearce and Swan will likely hold but good targets in 2028. Corangamite too solidly Labor after redistribution.
Boothby Brisbane Goldstein and Richmond are definitely in play. Can’t see them winning any others but those WA and QLD seats could fall in 2028. The Qld probly have half a chance if the rug is pulled out though.
Looking back, Josh Frydenburg losing Kooyong was a killer for Albo’s ambitions with the Voice To Parliamet.
Frydenburg would’ve guaranteed bipartisan support, the coalition would’ve split, Labor set for a 4 Term Government.
@Gympie why would Labor get a four-term government when Albo is quite unpopular? Whether Dutton will be PM or not is a different question, but four terms is a lot. Albo is not John Howard or Bob Hawke.
Frydenberg may have personally supported the Voice but I doubt he could’ve wrangled too many other Liberals into supporting it