2025 Australian federal election

1. @ian the libs will have mcewen Chisholm bruce kooyong Goldstein and Aston by 2028 mark my words

2. The trade war with China has ended with the lifting of the ban on Rock lobsters. This started under Morrison but Albanese managed to sort it out without conceding anything such as AUKUS. Albanese may gain support of Rock Lobster Fishermen in Lyons.

3. Nimalan was one of Morrison major failure points. Yes we all know China started the pandemic and didn’t do anything to stop international transmission but he ended upmacueveing nothing got a whole bunch of stuff banned and enabled albo to win an election. If Morrison hadn’t of alienated Chinese voters the libs would likely still hold bennelong Aston Reid and tangey. Labor would still be in govt but in minority

4. Will be a minuscule amount t of voters who probably voted Labor in 2022 anyway. Lyons is going to be lost regardless. Should have happened in 2019 but they selected a controversial candidate. Would have held it in 2022 too.

5. @John
   I agree if the pandemic had not happened, then seats like those you mentioned would not have been lost and WA seats like Hasluck, Pearce as well. The Chinese community could have saved JF in Kooyong. However, other Teal seats such as Wentworth, Goldstein, Mackellar (no significant Chinese community) would have still fallen to the Teals due to climate so maybe Morrison could have formed a minority government with the Teals in 2022

6. @nimalan Pearce may have because McGowan was still popular. Also pearce had a retiring member who had some personal problems so I think they would have. Of the seats lost that was the worst loss. They probably would have held hasluck but Swan and Pearce probably would have fallen although on less margins. The teals would not have sided with Morrison just like they won’t side with Dutton it would have been a Labor minority as the polls were against Morrison for a while as the pandemic wasn’t the only issue. Alltp the problems mps from 2022 are now gone, Roberts, Morrison ztudge etc. The controversy is now on the Labor side so I think the libs can now renew. Dutton will probably winthe 2pp seat wise like 2010 but the turncoat will put Labor in power.

7. Teals may have supported Libs in 2022 if JF had survived if Morrison agreed to step down in favor of him.

8. Seriously doubt they would libs were simply too far behind in the seat count. Labor would still have gained enough seats to govern with the greens who would never support the libs. Or at least enough seats to have the libs required every other crossbencher which is highly unlikely.

9. Something interesting about Aston is the absence of the Liberal Party presence, Mary Doyle has been everywhere with regular leaflets delivered by her and the Labor party. I feel weird saying this but it appears that they going to put up a fight here and what is stranger is liberal candidate has not been advertising with exception of one attack ad sense the by-election that doesn’t even show him or Dutton.

10. In my personal opinion Labor gonna lose at least 10 seats in 2025. 11 if you include the abolished seat of Higgins. The coalition should gain at least 7 plus the new seat of Bullwinkle getting them up to 66. They should be able to get seats like Aston, Bennelong, Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons, Paterson and Tangey. The greens have a good chance of getting Macnamara and Willa. The tenth seat is Richmond which could go to the greens or maybe flip back to the coalition so I won’t put that in either column atm but think Labor just can’t hold it as their vote only needs to slip a couple of % to put them our of the 2pp and think that vote will get pulled from both sides. So assuming no other independe T’s lose their seats aside from the abolished North Sydney. The state of play would be the following.

    LAB : 67
    LNP : 66-67
    Greens 6-7
    Independents : 10

    So then no party can format government in majority and would need to form minority with the support of the crossbench. Unfortunately the liberals simply won’t get it because the greens won’t support them and at 4 teals are openly hostile to Dutton. So the Albo is in the box seat. His choices are either get the greens and a couple crossbenchers or pretty much all but 1 crossbencher. Even if he could get every crossbencher which I would seriously doubt a govt like that would be pretty unstable. So the only other choice is the greens a 2-3 crossbenchers. Now naturally the greens are gonna want something and Albo isn’t gonna want to compromise or enter into a deal. But ultimately he won’t have any other choice because the only choice is to call another election which he would lose because people would punish the govt in seats like McEwen, Chisholm, Bruce, Dunkley, Reid, Whitlam, Werriwa, Macquarie, Eden Monaro, Parramatta, Dobell, Robertson, Greenway, Hunter, Shortland, Boothby, Swan, Pearce,, Solomon, Blair at the very least and it would probably be a bloodbath and turn a Labor minority into a Liberal Majority. The sa,e reason Gillard didn’t go back to an election in 2010 for sole reason she would of lost. If Dutton wants government he’d probably need a bare minimum 70 seats 72 would be a guaranteed because he could get sharkie katter haines le and maybe spender or chancy.

    So let’s look at other scenarios. If Dutton can get Ryan and Brisbane as well as Curtin and maybe one other teal like Goldstein or kooyong it’s probly back to even keeled. So based in this I’d say Labor in deep minority. Also if the greens had 7 seats in a albanese minority govt their gonna probably want a ministry too. Now if the libs start getting into seats like Robertson boothby and mcewen it’s probably over and we are looking at a Dutton govt either in majority or slim minority. Labor won’t be able to offset there lodes barring a national catastrophe or war.

11. Aston was won when Labor was at the height of its honeymoon up against a parachuted candidate when Dutton was an unknown and the libs still feeling the pinch from alienated voters. The cost of living crisis has only gotten worse and with a good local candidate this should be a liberal seat again. Is it classified as a gain or retain if the seat was lost at a by election?.

12. Considering that Alan Tudge of all people was still able to win Aston despite his role in robodebt and the Liberals unpopularity in VIC and the country more broadley during 2022, then it shouldn’t have much issue being won by Dutton at a mid-tide election with Labor now being on the nose in VIC.

13. I’ve had a look at the latest statistics to see where the states entitlements are going come up with the following (as of March 31 numbers)
    NSW 46.2146234995 compared to 46.42957110 at last determination a drop of 0.2149476005 of a seat.
    VIC 37.9730811204 compared to 37.78181939 at last determination an increase of 0.1912617303 of a seat
    QLD 30.3410331029 compared to 30.30915474 at last determination an increase of 0.0318783629 of a seat
    WA 16.105492065 compared to 15.92122480 at last determination an increase of 0.1842681065 of a seat
    SA 10.2244452588 compared to 10.33701403 at last determination a decrease of 0.1125687772 of a seat
    TAS 3.1413241179 compared to 3.221215942bat last determination a decrease of 0.0798918241 of a seat

    Based on these numbers wa could be in line for a 17th seat at next determination and vic could get its 39th seat back. Qlds growth is probably too slow to get another seat but nsw and SA should hold their existing seats.

    Il redo the numbers again in about 6 months to check the trend again.

14. I’m getting the impression the greens support federally is going to go backwards.
    The Greens are too radical and dangerous to be affiliated with as a contender in minority government. Their totally one sided bias regarding Israel is going to hurt them, they’re not rational and are being seen as dangerous and discriminatory.
    Labor are slowly realising that and are trying to distance themselves. The LNP have said they will preference Labor over greens.
    Labor have not made any such statements regarding sharing power and are in danger of being wiped out because of it.
    Ironically I think if the greens ran credible and strong candidates in high Islamic electorates like Watson and Blaxland I believe they might just be in with a chance if the Muslim vote has any truth in their policy of punishing Labor.

15. Hypothetical situation: what if teals never existed? Who would’ve won all the teal seats? Would Josh Frydenburg have held on in Kooyong, given it was a Liberal vs Greens marginal in 2019? Higgins and Warringah were Liberal vs Greens in 2016, what could’ve happened in 2019 and 2022 there?

    If Labor does really bad in inner Melbourne and Higgins was kept the Greens could’ve potentially gained up to four seats in Melbourne while still retaining Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne.

    2022 three-candidate-preferred in Labor seats with high Greens votes (Melbourne):

    * Cooper: Labor 44.7%, Greens 34.6%, Liberal 20.7%
    * Higgins: Liberal 44.8%, Labor 30.0%, Greens 25.2%
    * Macnamara: Liberal 33.7%, Labor 33.5%, Greens 32.8%
    * Wills: Labor 42.6%, Greens 35.6%, Liberal 21.8%

    2022 two-candidate-preferred in Labor seats with high Greens votes:

    * Cooper: Labor 58.7% (–6.2%), Greens 41.3% (+6.2%)
    * Higgins: Labor 52.1% (+4.7%), Liberal 47.9% (–4.7%)
    * Macnamara: Labor 62.3% (+7.3%), Liberal 37.8% (–7.3%)
    * Wills: Labor 58.6% (+0.1%), Greens 41.4% (–0.1%)

    So realistically if Labor was the Labor of a few years ago (i.e more centrist) they could’ve lost these seats to the Greens if the locals were as progressive as they are now, given that the margin between the Labor and Greens vote in all of those seats isn’t that big. In fact if Higgins and Macnamara were Greens vs Liberal then the Greens would’ve won both of those seats.

16. @ np
    My guess is that the seats currently held by Teals would now be mostly LIB v GRN I thinks Libs would hold all but reduced margins. before the teals existed Greens were close to outpolling them

17. Greens close to outpolling Labor I mean

18. @NP These seats ultimately come down to the strength of local campaigns and how well-resourced they are. I don’t think the average voter in those four Greens target seats you’ve listed above is any more or less progressive than they were in 2016, and I absolutely do not think that Labor of a few years ago was more progressive than it is now.

    As for the “what if the teals didn’t exist” hypothetical – I think that of all the teal seats, only two would ever end up with anyone other than the Liberals – being Kooyong and North Sydney. Kooyong as you mentioned was formerly a reasonably close Lib/Green contest, IMO due to the amount of young progressives around Hawthorn – and North Sydney on 2022 3CP was pretty doable for Labor. Both would likely remain Liberal but I’d say those are the only two that are winnable for non-Libs.

19. *I absolutely do not think that Labor is more progressive now than it was a few years ago – Albo’s leadership is markedly less progressive and ambitious than Shorten’s was, irrespective of their personal views or which faction they came from.

20. Apart from the Voice Albanese is not more progressive than Shorten was in 2019. On the issue of Boat people Albanese is more right wing than either Rudd or Gillard ever were

21. @nimalan only because he can’t afford the political problems it causes him

22. Wentworth minus a teal could be won by alp
    Bradfield in the real world could be won by a teal

23. There is no Muslim vote but rather people who follow Islam vote. People will vote one way or other for many varied reasons other than their religious faith

24. @ John
    As i mentioned before i dont know whats in peoples heart or what they would love to do in the ideal world so i can only judge people on their conduct and their policies. It is very possible that Tony Abbott would have loved to bring back Workchoices but he said it was dead, buried and cremated because he did not want to deal with that issue. There maybe some Liberals who want to scrap Net Zero but dont do so because they dont want to deal with that debate. Most voters lie somewhere in the middle part of the bell curve so if anyone plays on the fringe they loose the majority.

25. Abbott didn’t bring back work choices because they were gonna fight another election over a policy which cost them govt. Net zero is a different story the climate wars are not over people care more about cost of libpving then net zero sure people want it but they don’t want to pay for it. The same with Labor reviving the fight over negative gearing and capital gains. If Labor revives that they will lose the election because they fought 2 elections on those and lost.

26. Are there key states in Australia? It seems like it.

    So we all know that the US has key states for the presidential election because you need the Electoral College to win and that requires you to win not necessarily the popular vote but rather the most states which gives you the most Electoral College votes.

    In the UK it’s impossible to win a general election without having the most seats in England, so while Wales as a whole is usually Labour-leaning and Scotland is more often Labour-voting than it is Conservative-voting, England is the key country.

    In South Africa most of the smaller Black-majority states are ANC strongholds while Western Cape (where Cape Town is) is a Democratic Alliance stronghold, and the key provinces are Gauteng (the most populous province and where Joburg (Johannesburg) is) and KZN (pronounced like the letters spelt out i.e kayzeden, which means KwaZulu Natal for those who are unaware of South African English terminology; KZN is where Durban is).

    In New Zealand you would typically need a majority in the Auckland Region (which is the city of Auckland) to win a general election, and in every state here in Australia with single-member districts with the exception of Queensland you usually need a majority in the capital city to win government.

    Until 2016 no party had never won government without a majority of seats in NSW and/or Victoria, but thanks to Labor abandoning northern Australia the Coalition now does really well on the federal in Queensland and WA, including in the major cities, and therefore wins by having a majority there.

    But this time the seats the Coalition can (and in many cases most likely will) gain are in NSW and WA. Peter Dutton is too right-wing to gain seats in the more urbanised southern states of Victoria and SA and only one seat in Tassie is up for grabs (that seat being Lyons). There’s not much more for the Coalition to win in Queensland thanks to repeat good performances over the years and thus the only seat up for grabs there is Blair.

    Will Peter Dutton try and be one of those conservatives who try and stand up for the working-class, or will he try and fail, or will he ignore them? John Howard worked really hard and got the support of the middle and working-class average people, and that’s one of the many reasons why he was such a great leader and won four elections in a row. Love him or hate him, Donald Trump also led the Republicans to perform well with the working-class despite being a billionaire businessman and thus won states like Pennsylvania by appealing to working-class voters.

    So for this election NSW and WA are key states (purple states), while Queensland is a safe blue state and Victoria, SA and the ACT are all solid red states (Tassie and the NT are what I would describe as solidly purple or politically neutral).

27. @np wa is gonna trend back to blue as the libs should get tangey, and bullwinkel and the other 3 they lost should trend back to them and become marginal. I also suspect they will make in roads in Vic as well

28. @John I personally don’t think the Coalition are gonna gain any Labor seats in Victoria except maybe Aston (by-election), Kooyong and Menzies (notionally). The seats that swing to Labor/Greens/teals will be the socially progressive seats (more than half of which voted Yes, and every seat that voted Yes is socially progressive) which are almost all in the southeastern states (NSW, Victoria, SA, Tassie and the ACT). Only three seats in Brisbane voted Yes (Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan) and they were all Greens seats and only two seats in WA voted Yes (Curtin which is a teal seat and Perth which is a Labor seat) and while no seats in SA voted Yes the seat of Adelaide was pretty close and Boothby and Sturt weren’t that far off either.

29. @np there are several Victorian seats on small margins that could flip either this election or next (mcewen, Chisholm, bruce)

30. The seats that swung against the trend in 2022 will be the first to fall in 2025. Lingiari, Lyons and gilmore, Paterson. I have some suspicion mcewen may flip too given the libs managed a 2 % swing there too.

31. @John Bruce is the seat which Dandenong is in. Dandenong is the poorest, most working class suburb/area in Melbourne. It would be a shock to anyone’s system to see that seat go Liberal. Although, it was certainly a shock to see Higgins, the seat that contains Toorak, the richest suburb in Melbourne, go Labor.

32. @adam I dont think it will flip in 2025 but it received a small swing in 2022 and with more favourable boundaries will likely see a modest swing 2025. The numbers don’t lie and as the coalition targets working class outer suburban seats I’d expect them to try. Seats like whitlam Bruce werriwa and Holt are also likely targets. I think Chisholm will likely flip back to libs in 2028 and will probably see a modest swing to them in 2025. These predictions are based on past trends

33. I don’t see Bruce flipping anytime soon, however Chisholm, McEwen & Aston are realistic with a universal swing of 4% would see the LNP with those however I don’t think a swing would be exact same in each electorate. I’m not confident at the moment that the LNP will pick up anything in Victoria in 2025 however 2028 would be more realistic.

34. @fish chisholm is 50/50 this election Aston should be regain and I think they have prospects in mcewen . I wouldn’t rule out kooyong or Goldstein but briuceu Is a 2018 prospect. Aston was taken at a high watermark for labor and that’s receded. Mcewen recorded a 2% swing in an election where they did poorly and has seeded Labor territory to Nicholls. Bruce also saw a small swing has seeded parts of Dandenong plus gain favourable territory from la robe but it won’t fall in 2025 as Labor aren’t doing that poorly

35. It’s possible that by the end of the decade we could see every major party Led by a Queenslander. The Liberals, under Dutton, and the Nationals, under Little proud, already are. Plus One Nation, although that depends on if Hanson’s replacement is a Queenslander. After this, if Labor loses in ’25 or ’28, Jim Chalmers has a solid shot at taking over the leadership. Finally, Adam Bandt won’t be the leader of the Greens forever, and Max Chandler-Mather has been positioned best as a leader in waiting.

    Has anything like this ever occured before in our politics?

36. Way back in 1901 all three major parties were led by New South Welshmen (Barton, Reid and Watson).
    Menzies, Calwell and McEwen (Victoria) in the 1960s. Also Holt, Calwell and McEwen briefly in 1966.
    Keating, Hewson and Fischer (NSW)
    Howard, Latham and Anderson (NSW again)
    Just recently we had Morrison, Albanese and McCormack/Joyce.

37. Given the right circumstances and redistribution the libs could theoretically unseat charmers in 2028

38. @adam it contains only a fraction of Dandenong and will only lose more given the growth in Casey lga

39. as i had predicted the Coalition are now in front on the 2pp and albo has lost his first newspoll

40. if it continues the coalition may be in a good position to make albo a one termer

41. That hasn’t happened in like forever John.

42. @np just like the govt hadnt won a seat off the opposition in like forever. theres always a first time for everything and records are made to be broke. albo was a one hit wonder who didnt really win the election, scomo simply alienated key demographics that would have otherwise prodicued a hung parliament although it would have been 3-4 seats now people have got sick of scomos replacement and the best labor can hope for is probably a labor-greens-teal-independent minority. based on the latest poll id say liberals are in within a good shot of turfing out albo. i reckon the libs can get 8 seats off labor (1 notional, bulllwinkel) but it wont take much for 4-5 others to flip after that and then if dutton can get those 2 green seats back and 1 or 2 teals then hes either in govt or close enough to minority t get katter sharkie and haines so its not totally unreasonable to think he can win however hard the task

43. the current news poll represents s 3.1% swing t the libs on a uniform swing that puts seats like robertson in the liberal column i think that the libs will do better then that in vic and that starts risking seats like mcewen and chisolm in the crosshairs and would go along way to helping them in goldstein and kooyong. in nsw they will start looking at seats like hunter and parramatta. albo should have taken the august election in which he still would be pm even in minority thigs are just going from bad to worse and hes gamblng everything on it getting better. if he goes in may without a rate cut he is gone. eve with a rate cut he may barely hold on. a labor majority is all but a dream now

44. The opinion polls are just a snapshot at a given time. As Labor has a small absolute majority is possible next election produces a hung parliament. To suggest Labor could lose enough seats to allow a liberal majority or minority government is just wishful thinking by some here. There will be changes from the current environment with government action reserve bank interest rate cuts and the actual campaign.Seats such as Chisholm and Reid are the epicentre of the election and I am sure they will remain alp held.

45. @Mick Quinlivan it’s almost certain that Labor will get a minority government but almost impossible that they’ll get a majority government. Labor will lose at least two seats in WA and Higgins is now gone which gives them 74 seats which is already a minority and they’ll likely lose more too.

46. @mick there are so many seats held on small enough margins that dutton can get to majority if the swings are in the right place but as ive stated taking seats from labor is not his only path to govt he probably wont get enough off of labor but he has the option of gettgin 2 back from the greens and a least the teal seats outside of nsw. he doesnt need even need to get to majority to get bac to govt if he gets 71 to 72 there wont be anythin to stop him

47. @np labor wont even get 70 seats albo is gonna lose seats to his left and right to both the greens and the libs

48. Who supports liberal minority?katter? Sharkie?
    Who else?

49. 2 seats in Qld? Ryan and Brisbane.?

50. @ Nether Portal
    When you back from your trip. I have another idea maybe a table for all electorates and indigenous population %. I heard Goldstein has the lowest. You can also include state and AEC classification (Inner metro, Outer metro, Rural and Provincial)

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