2025 Australian federal election

@ian the libs will have mcewen Chisholm bruce kooyong Goldstein and Aston by 2028 mark my words

The trade war with China has ended with the lifting of the ban on Rock lobsters. This started under Morrison but Albanese managed to sort it out without conceding anything such as AUKUS. Albanese may gain support of Rock Lobster Fishermen in Lyons.

Nimalan was one of Morrison major failure points. Yes we all know China started the pandemic and didn’t do anything to stop international transmission but he ended upmacueveing nothing got a whole bunch of stuff banned and enabled albo to win an election. If Morrison hadn’t of alienated Chinese voters the libs would likely still hold bennelong Aston Reid and tangey. Labor would still be in govt but in minority

Will be a minuscule amount t of voters who probably voted Labor in 2022 anyway. Lyons is going to be lost regardless. Should have happened in 2019 but they selected a controversial candidate. Would have held it in 2022 too.

@John
I agree if the pandemic had not happened, then seats like those you mentioned would not have been lost and WA seats like Hasluck, Pearce as well. The Chinese community could have saved JF in Kooyong. However, other Teal seats such as Wentworth, Goldstein, Mackellar (no significant Chinese community) would have still fallen to the Teals due to climate so maybe Morrison could have formed a minority government with the Teals in 2022

@nimalan Pearce may have because McGowan was still popular. Also pearce had a retiring member who had some personal problems so I think they would have. Of the seats lost that was the worst loss. They probably would have held hasluck but Swan and Pearce probably would have fallen although on less margins. The teals would not have sided with Morrison just like they won’t side with Dutton it would have been a Labor minority as the polls were against Morrison for a while as the pandemic wasn’t the only issue. Alltp the problems mps from 2022 are now gone, Roberts, Morrison ztudge etc. The controversy is now on the Labor side so I think the libs can now renew. Dutton will probably winthe 2pp seat wise like 2010 but the turncoat will put Labor in power.

Teals may have supported Libs in 2022 if JF had survived if Morrison agreed to step down in favor of him.

Seriously doubt they would libs were simply too far behind in the seat count. Labor would still have gained enough seats to govern with the greens who would never support the libs. Or at least enough seats to have the libs required every other crossbencher which is highly unlikely.

Something interesting about Aston is the absence of the Liberal Party presence, Mary Doyle has been everywhere with regular leaflets delivered by her and the Labor party. I feel weird saying this but it appears that they going to put up a fight here and what is stranger is liberal candidate has not been advertising with exception of one attack ad sense the by-election that doesn’t even show him or Dutton.

In my personal opinion Labor gonna lose at least 10 seats in 2025. 11 if you include the abolished seat of Higgins. The coalition should gain at least 7 plus the new seat of Bullwinkle getting them up to 66. They should be able to get seats like Aston, Bennelong, Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons, Paterson and Tangey. The greens have a good chance of getting Macnamara and Willa. The tenth seat is Richmond which could go to the greens or maybe flip back to the coalition so I won’t put that in either column atm but think Labor just can’t hold it as their vote only needs to slip a couple of % to put them our of the 2pp and think that vote will get pulled from both sides. So assuming no other independe T’s lose their seats aside from the abolished North Sydney. The state of play would be the following.

LAB : 67
LNP : 66-67
Greens 6-7
Independents : 10

So then no party can format government in majority and would need to form minority with the support of the crossbench. Unfortunately the liberals simply won’t get it because the greens won’t support them and at 4 teals are openly hostile to Dutton. So the Albo is in the box seat. His choices are either get the greens and a couple crossbenchers or pretty much all but 1 crossbencher. Even if he could get every crossbencher which I would seriously doubt a govt like that would be pretty unstable. So the only other choice is the greens a 2-3 crossbenchers. Now naturally the greens are gonna want something and Albo isn’t gonna want to compromise or enter into a deal. But ultimately he won’t have any other choice because the only choice is to call another election which he would lose because people would punish the govt in seats like McEwen, Chisholm, Bruce, Dunkley, Reid, Whitlam, Werriwa, Macquarie, Eden Monaro, Parramatta, Dobell, Robertson, Greenway, Hunter, Shortland, Boothby, Swan, Pearce,, Solomon, Blair at the very least and it would probably be a bloodbath and turn a Labor minority into a Liberal Majority. The sa,e reason Gillard didn’t go back to an election in 2010 for sole reason she would of lost. If Dutton wants government he’d probably need a bare minimum 70 seats 72 would be a guaranteed because he could get sharkie katter haines le and maybe spender or chancy.

So let’s look at other scenarios. If Dutton can get Ryan and Brisbane as well as Curtin and maybe one other teal like Goldstein or kooyong it’s probly back to even keeled. So based in this I’d say Labor in deep minority. Also if the greens had 7 seats in a albanese minority govt their gonna probably want a ministry too. Now if the libs start getting into seats like Robertson boothby and mcewen it’s probably over and we are looking at a Dutton govt either in majority or slim minority. Labor won’t be able to offset there lodes barring a national catastrophe or war.

Aston was won when Labor was at the height of its honeymoon up against a parachuted candidate when Dutton was an unknown and the libs still feeling the pinch from alienated voters. The cost of living crisis has only gotten worse and with a good local candidate this should be a liberal seat again. Is it classified as a gain or retain if the seat was lost at a by election?.

Considering that Alan Tudge of all people was still able to win Aston despite his role in robodebt and the Liberals unpopularity in VIC and the country more broadley during 2022, then it shouldn’t have much issue being won by Dutton at a mid-tide election with Labor now being on the nose in VIC.

I’ve had a look at the latest statistics to see where the states entitlements are going come up with the following (as of March 31 numbers)
NSW 46.2146234995 compared to 46.42957110 at last determination a drop of 0.2149476005 of a seat.
VIC 37.9730811204 compared to 37.78181939 at last determination an increase of 0.1912617303 of a seat
QLD 30.3410331029 compared to 30.30915474 at last determination an increase of 0.0318783629 of a seat
WA 16.105492065 compared to 15.92122480 at last determination an increase of 0.1842681065 of a seat
SA 10.2244452588 compared to 10.33701403 at last determination a decrease of 0.1125687772 of a seat
TAS 3.1413241179 compared to 3.221215942bat last determination a decrease of 0.0798918241 of a seat

Based on these numbers wa could be in line for a 17th seat at next determination and vic could get its 39th seat back. Qlds growth is probably too slow to get another seat but nsw and SA should hold their existing seats.

Il redo the numbers again in about 6 months to check the trend again.

I’m getting the impression the greens support federally is going to go backwards.
The Greens are too radical and dangerous to be affiliated with as a contender in minority government. Their totally one sided bias regarding Israel is going to hurt them, they’re not rational and are being seen as dangerous and discriminatory.
Labor are slowly realising that and are trying to distance themselves. The LNP have said they will preference Labor over greens.
Labor have not made any such statements regarding sharing power and are in danger of being wiped out because of it.
Ironically I think if the greens ran credible and strong candidates in high Islamic electorates like Watson and Blaxland I believe they might just be in with a chance if the Muslim vote has any truth in their policy of punishing Labor.

Hypothetical situation: what if teals never existed? Who would’ve won all the teal seats? Would Josh Frydenburg have held on in Kooyong, given it was a Liberal vs Greens marginal in 2019? Higgins and Warringah were Liberal vs Greens in 2016, what could’ve happened in 2019 and 2022 there?

If Labor does really bad in inner Melbourne and Higgins was kept the Greens could’ve potentially gained up to four seats in Melbourne while still retaining Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne.

2022 three-candidate-preferred in Labor seats with high Greens votes (Melbourne):

* Cooper: Labor 44.7%, Greens 34.6%, Liberal 20.7%
* Higgins: Liberal 44.8%, Labor 30.0%, Greens 25.2%
* Macnamara: Liberal 33.7%, Labor 33.5%, Greens 32.8%
* Wills: Labor 42.6%, Greens 35.6%, Liberal 21.8%

2022 two-candidate-preferred in Labor seats with high Greens votes:

* Cooper: Labor 58.7% (–6.2%), Greens 41.3% (+6.2%)
* Higgins: Labor 52.1% (+4.7%), Liberal 47.9% (–4.7%)
* Macnamara: Labor 62.3% (+7.3%), Liberal 37.8% (–7.3%)
* Wills: Labor 58.6% (+0.1%), Greens 41.4% (–0.1%)

So realistically if Labor was the Labor of a few years ago (i.e more centrist) they could’ve lost these seats to the Greens if the locals were as progressive as they are now, given that the margin between the Labor and Greens vote in all of those seats isn’t that big. In fact if Higgins and Macnamara were Greens vs Liberal then the Greens would’ve won both of those seats.

@ np
My guess is that the seats currently held by Teals would now be mostly LIB v GRN I thinks Libs would hold all but reduced margins. before the teals existed Greens were close to outpolling them

Greens close to outpolling Labor I mean

@NP These seats ultimately come down to the strength of local campaigns and how well-resourced they are. I don’t think the average voter in those four Greens target seats you’ve listed above is any more or less progressive than they were in 2016, and I absolutely do not think that Labor of a few years ago was more progressive than it is now.

As for the “what if the teals didn’t exist” hypothetical – I think that of all the teal seats, only two would ever end up with anyone other than the Liberals – being Kooyong and North Sydney. Kooyong as you mentioned was formerly a reasonably close Lib/Green contest, IMO due to the amount of young progressives around Hawthorn – and North Sydney on 2022 3CP was pretty doable for Labor. Both would likely remain Liberal but I’d say those are the only two that are winnable for non-Libs.

*I absolutely do not think that Labor is more progressive now than it was a few years ago – Albo’s leadership is markedly less progressive and ambitious than Shorten’s was, irrespective of their personal views or which faction they came from.

Apart from the Voice Albanese is not more progressive than Shorten was in 2019. On the issue of Boat people Albanese is more right wing than either Rudd or Gillard ever were

@nimalan only because he can’t afford the political problems it causes him

Wentworth minus a teal could be won by alp
Bradfield in the real world could be won by a teal