2025 Australian federal election

So… when are rate cuts gonna happen?

@nicolas could be anywhere from december to august depending on who you beieve

@Nimalan It was a joke.

I dont want to give economic advise on a public forum on when interest rates maybe cut or if they will be raised further. I dont want to give False hope or create needless anxiety that interest rates will go up. The only point i would make is Australia’s success is paramount over partisan interest. As John McCain used to say Country First before party. No one should wish economic misfortune on Australian families simply because they see a partisan advantage, i hope this country’s best days are ahead of us. I honestly believe that the average voter is more concerned about bread and butter issues such as interest rates, inflation, unemployment rate, Wage growth than pronouns, culture wars, rainbow lanyards etc.

Il be posting from various locations in the us for the next 2 weeks so get ready for odd hours posts

@John should be fine I sometimes check this early morning when I’m watching Spurs play. I don’t often comment at those hours though.

@Nimalan McCain was completely correct. For example, I’m a strong supporter of the Greens, but trying to force the government to cut rates is one of the positions that make me understand why people call us extreme. Interest rates affect the lower classes much more than the upper class, who keep spending, leading to longer inflation. This is a product of years of mismanagement by other parties, the interest rate rises should have affected everyone, but the rich have got richer and avoided the impact. Populist messages like this destroy the credibility of the Greens.

This is why Governments shouldn’t do things just because it is popular (or populist), it is doing things what is right for the society as whole but obviously not in a way as an excuse as an way to create autocracy though but enhance democracy. For the same reason, I will oppose Swiss style Direct Democracy because it can lead to Tyranny of the Majority (Swiss people voting to ban Minaret on the Mosque is one example) and we probably would still have the death penalty.

Agree Darcy and Marh
The independence of the RBA is critical for economic stability while people are free to rant about its decision meddling in the RBA is a recipe for disaster. The RBA has a balancing act it needs to reduce inflation as soon as possible but if it goes too hard then unemployment can significantly go up and firms will collapse. If inflation lasts for longer then real wages will fall.

@Marh agreed about populism, governments should be doing what’s right not what’s popular.

Switzerland banned minarets because of the noise they make. The ban got heavily criticised by those overseas, yet if a Muslim country did the same thing with a Christian or Jewish thing it wouldn’t be criticised. Why does it seem like they always criticise Western countries and never non-Western countries? China is trying to attack Taiwan, why aren’t they talking about that? In some Muslim countries you can still be sentenced to death for having gay sex or for apostasy, why aren’t they talking about that?

@ Nether Portal
I dont have the answers to all the questions but i think in life there is always double standards and people pick and choose what suits them. For example, you dont hear much in the Muslim world about Darfur when Muslims were killing other Muslims. Erdogan praised Hamas but then talks about the PKK being a terrorist group and the Kurds are the largest people in the world without their own state. Erdogan supported what Azerbaijan did in Nagorno-Karabakh last year when the drove out virtually in the Armenians who had lived there for a 1000 years (something that really got me angry last year).
On the other hand, many people have cricitised Michael Danby who is passionate about the Uyghurs even though that is an issue that no Muslim country has actually spoken out about and Many Muslim countries including Palestinian Authority actually have supported China on.

@Nimalan I agree, there is a large degree of double standards in the world. Another interesting thing is that Erdoğan is actually anti-Hezbollah but pro-Hamas despite Hamas and Hezbollah being allies.

@np I’d say because Lebanon is a country not controlled by hezbollah and I’d say he needs goods relations with lebanon whereas hamas controls Gaza and that isn’t technically a country.

The AFL Grand Final is starting soon (go Lions!) so I won’t be on here much for a few hours, but I would like to say that it’s being reported that Labor have gotten a scare from the LNP and Margaret Stretlow in Rockhampton.

Crisafulli’s charisma and voter appeal is being noticed too. Political scientist and commentator from Griffith University said while Brisbane doesn’t usually vote for a farmer (Crisafulli grew up on a farm), they do vote for moderates and that Crisafulli is “a moderate from the southeast”.

Also, the Courier Mail has released an article about where the leaders have been campaigning.

Miles has visited Capalaba, Inala, Ipswich, Kurwongbah, Logan, Macalister and Mansfield recently. Mick de Brenni is campaigning hard in Springwood, as is Sharon Fentiman in Waterford. Miles is also campaigning hard in the inner-city Greens targets of Cooper, Greenslopes, McConnel and Miller.

Meanwhile, the LNP have mostly been campaigning in regional and suburban seats. Crisafulli has made visits to working-class seats too, however, including seats such as Toohey and Waterford.

Both leaders recently visited the seats of Caloundra, Capalaba, Macalister, Mansfield and Springwood.

It appears Labor is worried about losing its working-class Brisbane seats to the LNP and inner-city Brisbane seats to the Greens, so they’ve decided to go and defend those seats rather than campaign hard in seats like Bundaberg and Hervey Bay which will be easily won by the LNP.

Waterford is interesting in the fact fentiman is probably the only threat to Cameron dick as leader

Also going for the lions but I’m in the us so the best I can do is watch the score on Google

This is a very good, interactive tool for finding out how multicultural each suburb and town is: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/how-multicultural-is-your-suburb/bq69vnf06

It has interactive maps for the main country of birth other than Australia, the main language spoken at home other than English and the main religious denomination.

Some small towns have no data but here are some of the many interesting things I found, mostly in small rural towns:

Religion:
* Holroyd River, an Aboriginal community in Cape York, is apparently 100% Seventh Day Adventist, but I’m sceptical of this because the population is under 100 and it’s 100%.
* Lonsdale (the suburb of Adelaide not the brand) is very Christian, but the main denomination is Salvation Army.
* Mudamuckla, a remote town in SA, is apparently mostly made up of people who follow Churches of Christ, whatever that is. It also has a lot of Uniting Church members.
* Tahlee, a town near Karuah (near Newcastle), is very Christian but not Catholic, most people there are Pentecostal, Baptist or Protestant.
* Ten Mile Hollow is apparently a Buddhist town just outside of Sydney, but I’m sceptical of this because it says 100% Buddhist and less than 100 residents.
* Underbank is a small town near Karuah (near Newcastle) that is mostly Baptist and Presbyterian.
* Warumungu, a remote Aboriginal community in the NT between Tennant Creek and Alice Springs, is mostly Seventh Day Adventist but also has a large Baptist community.

Languages:
* Arrawarra, a coastal town just north of Coffs Harbour, is apparently 12.2% Tongan-speaking.
* Berowra Waters in the outer far northern suburbs of Sydney has two languages other than English spoken at home: “Swiss, so described” and Vietnamese. Switzerland has four official languages (German, French, Italian and Romansh, in order of how commonly spoken they are), which are all spoken in different parts of Switzerland (English is used as a lingua franca for people from different cantons and for tourists).
* Rookhurst, a town near Gloucester in NSW, only has one other language other than English, and that is “sign languages, nfd”.
* Rossglen, a town near where I grew up (near Port Macquarie), is apparently 12% Hungarian-speaking.

Country of birth:
* A lot of random Swiss enclaves appear around regional NSW in towns of less than 100 people (and probably less than 50 people).
* Lidenow and Woodglen, two small rural towns in Victoria, have a significant amount of residents who were born in East Timor, as does Smith Brook, a rural town in southern WA.

Even though it’s highly unlikely there is a path for the coalition to regain govt at the next election the following seats could be used to regain govt.

Gilmore
Lyons
Lingiari
Aston
Robertson
Paterson
Tangey
Boothby
Bullwinkel
McEwen
Chisholm
Parramatta
Hunter
Reid
Blair
Werriwa
Reid
Bruce
Werriwa
Curtin
Ryan
Brisbane
Goldstein
Kooyong
Richmond
Calare
Solomon

Then you can take into account that they don’t need to get to a majority because they would probably get support from Katter, Gee and Sharkie. Gee would want to look out for his own political survival because as oakshott and Windsor found out the voters didn’t take too kindly to them backing Labor. Sharkie has made it clear she will support whoever gets the most seats. Katter would probably do the same. Could possibly rely on Haines and maybe chancy. The other teals have already made their feelings about Dutton clear. Wilkie being of the left would likely support Labor and the greens will only support Labor.

I highly doubt they will get that close though unless they can win big. 2028 then looks lot more promising as they could open up seats like shorthand Eden monaro Macquarie greenway dobell Swan pearce whitlam cowan lilley hasluck maybe dunkley then the teal seats could be in play.

Obviously the won’t get them all but those are the options. And for people saying they would never elect Dutton would probably be in for a shock as these are seats people said would never elect Abbot but they di or came close.

Overall I can see 17 seats on margins of 3.7% or less that are gettable and about 7 I’d guarantee they’ll get. Labor is also facing credible threats in Will’s Richmond and Macnamara. In Richmond and macnamra they only would need a small swing from Labor to them to push Labor out of the 2pp. They will need to finish first probably since Labor can rely on the libs preferences to help them atm.

Latest newspoll state breakdowns has libs up 51-49 in nsw Labor up 52-48 in Vic,libs up 54-46 in qld and Labor up in wa 52-48 and 54-46 in sa. So this would swing the libs 2.4% in nsw 2.8% in Vic, neutral in qld , 3% in wa and a mere .03 towards Labor in sa

Latest roy Morgan poll has the coalition up 51-49

I know it’s not Aussie election related but il be seeing Donald Trump tomorrow in Wisconsin

@John at a rally?

Also I should note that I too will be overseas tomorrow. I’ll be in Phuket, Thailand for 10 days.

Why do y’all feel the need to tell the comments section on the Tally Room about your overseas visits and which sporting games you’re attending lmao

Because for starters we have no us election thread and I posted it to say why I’d be posting at strange hours

Anyway, objectively speaking, JD Vance won that debate.

Yea I saw the highlights

According to a CNN poll, net favourable view of candidates after the debate were JD Vance -3 (up 19) and Tim Walz +37 (up 23). So on that basis they both did well to improve their favourability but Walz did better. That said, the key impression created by a major political event such as a debate tends to take some time to become clear.

US politics is off topic. Keep it off this post.

@ben just one quick comment then ok
@same guy a cnn poll is like asking the Democrats who did better lol. That’s just like asking abc viewers to poll lab vs lib. It’s only answered by people who favour cnn which are mostly Dems. That’s y it’s good to have a live audience of undecided voters it gives a better result

This might be the first federal election, post World War II at least, where foreign policy is a hot button issue or pivotal, vote-deciding issue. It’s moreso in ethnically and religiously diverse electorates in Sydney and Melbourne, including in Macnamara and Wills.

Surely, people opposed the Vietnam War and Iraq War, but they weren’t huge needle movers. Those against the wars weren’t Coalition voters to begin with or were Coalition voters who continued voting for the Coalition.

Foreign policy was pivotal in the US and UK in the past. Jimmy Carter (who has just turned 100) lost the presidential election of 1980 in a landslide following the Iranian Hostage Crisis whilst Margaret Thatcher won the 1983 UK general election in a landslide following the Falkland Islands War.

Why do you guys keep talking about US politics even after the reminder from Ben.

I really don’t think 2025 (or 2024 if a last minute December election is called) will be about foreign policy since 2022 saw the largest invasion since WW2 in Europe a few months before the 2022 election, yet it wasn’t that front and center.

Voters care more about the cost of living, even the Arab Australians in seats like Wills and Calwell don’t care about what is going on in the middle east compared to their cost of living situation. How do I know? I spoke to some. Cost of living really is the #1 issue.

Maybe Pro-Palestine protesters will tell you different but I’m speaking of those who aren’t protesting every weekend in the CBD.

I agree that cost of living is the top issue nationwide.

I never mentioned that foreign policy will be the one and only issue, though it could be for some such as those protesting all the time, like you mentioned. My earlier point was that the issue of foreign policy, particularly on Israel and Gaza, is becoming an issue like never before and has gotten closer to the front of mind. This is moreso for voters of Muslim faith and/or Arab descent. It may not be the main issue, but it does give another reason to change votes. I think the ability to deal with anti-Semitism and Islamophobia is another delicate, sensitive issues in this election.

There’s bipartisan support for Ukraine and there was no protest (that I know of) over parliament’s support for Ukraine.

At the UK general elections, a number of pro-Gaza independents won seats off Labour. To be fair, they have optional voting and a FPTP system where tactical voting and vote splitting is real. Also, voters may’ve found Keir Starmer too economically right-wing for their liking.

@Votante Agreed that Cost of Living and Housing will be dominating this election, perhaps even moreso than climate change and immigration itself.

With the Israel-Gaza issue whilst I don’t think the bulk of voters would care too much about it, those that do care about it are in marginal or precariously ‘safe’ seats in this country that are held by Labor, and that runs an issue if Labor is seen as too pro-Israel, which would work for a seat like Macnamara but would literally repel voters everywhere else like Wills, Calwell, Watson, Bruce etc.

I think the government’s approach towards this has gradually become more balanced, perhaps even at times more favourable to the Palestinian side than Israel which I applaud but I think they need to push a bit further than the two-way street because otherwise they’ll be bleeding votes and seats in all directions, both left and right. At least if they stick to their core voters (Working class ethnic, Intellectuals in inner-city who doesn’t like the Greens) they won’t lose them and be able to focus on fighting the Coalition on cost of living and housing rather than worry about sideshows like the Israel/Gaza issues. The fact that in the UK Starmer lost seats to independents even in the huge landslide shows that they’re not immune to this either here and they need to work harder and win the support of Muslim voters back to reduce the Coalition’s chance of election.

@votante to be fair carter only won because of the Watergate scandal and Reagan was a big time movie star and popular. (Reagan even won California.) Reagan’s landslide in 1984 was even bigger the opposing candidate only won one state. And yes congrats to carter I was hoping he would make the ton.

@daniel t because the Russian-Ukrainian war has nothing to do with Australis and I don’t believe there are any serious number of people in Australia who support Russia as opposed to Ukraine. In the middle east however certain sections believe Australia is siding with who they see as the oppressor rather then the victim instead of siding with Palestine Gaza and hamas a terrorist organisation. And that’s not entirely true because that’s why this Muslim voters movement has sprung up seeking to unseat certain mps.

Albanese has announced Tu Le as Labor’s candidate for Fowler in 2025. If I was her I honestly wouldn’t even want to run for them after that stunt they pulled in 2022. They don’t really ‘deserve’ to win it back, but i guess we’ll see if a better candidate can help them at all.

I suspect dai le will hold here. The cost of living crisis and the “Muslim votes” group should help her retain her seat.

Labor is in a worse position ATM then they were in 2010. If gillard had of gone to an election in August as soon as it was viable she would have won majority.labor consistently polled well above the lnp on tpp right up until the election. Albo has been struggling for nearly a year and I think he will suffer the same fate. Unless something drastically changes I think he might actually lose the election should he wait until May. His problems were impending state and territory election where voters were waiting to punish labor specifically in qld and the nt. The problem with protecting those seats is he would of only been risking 3-4 seats federally now he will face a backlash in Victoria where many more seats are up for grabs. The combined Chisholm Higgins would likely be a labor retain now he could end up losing both. Victoria labor has taken a nose dive since Andrews retired along with wa since mcgowan. So it may have better to go as early as possible in which he would have been almost guaranteed to return albeit in minority. But he wants majority and is holding out hope things will get better when they could get worse. Labors position in the polls in the next few weeks will tell the tale on their fate. If they drop a newspoll it might be the beginning of the end.

Some one said referring to
Politics
Today you are a Rooster
The next day a feather duster
Things can change quickly
Believe it or not the 1975 and 1983 elections could have been different

@mick almost has been doing bad for nearly a year consistently that isn’t going away overnight.

We will know by November 4 if we are gonna have an election this year December 7th is likely the last available date this. Year