2025 Australian federal election

@same difference. It’s the same party then.

2 new polls today. Lib 52-48 in freshwater. Labor back to 50.5-49.5 in Roy morgan

Polls don’t decide elections, voters do. Polls are incorrect, if people don’t turn out to vote none of this would matter

@daniel t I’m aware of that but remember polls are conducted based on voters intentions and are merely a snapshot. We are due for another newspoll on Friday along with quarterly state breakdowns

The idea that polls ought to be dismissed because they “don’t decide elections” implies an epistemological stance that holds that all scientific investigation is worthless. “Theories and models don’t decide what happens, what happens is what happens!”

Polls most times on a global basis tend to be correct . Of you have multiple polls showing similar they establish a trend.

this weeks newspol will give a state by state breakdown and more accurately show how things are going to trend come lection time. i for one think labor is gonna get q hiding in victoria since unkie the other states the voters there dont have a state governemnt to punish before the election

I’ve got a good question for some commenters that’s been floating my mind recently:

Famous people from sportspeople (tennis player Sam Groth is the Liberal MP for Nepean in Victoria while cricketer Nathan Bracken ran as the Liberal candidate for The Entrance in NSW) to singers (Peter Garrett was the lead singer of Midnight Oil became the Labor MP for Kingsford Smith) to many others (banker Malcolm Turnbull became the Liberal MP for Wentworth and later became PM) have run for politics before and many more will in the future, including some stars today.

If you could pick any current or former celebrity (singer, actor, athlete, businessperson, etc) to run for any party (specify), who would you pick? You can choose more than one.

For me I would love to see a young person enter politics. I’m quite sporty so I know of a few sportspeople who would be good in Parliament. It would be really cool if a young moderate joined the Liberals or the Nationals. I would love for someone like Sam Kerr to run in a small-l-liberal seat after retirement (although she’s a lesbian I think a moderate leader like Turnbull or even Crisafulli would be fine, not Dutton though), I think she would win a seat like Perth (she’s from Perth so she would probably run in a Perth seat).

Any thoughts?

Good idea!!

I would love to see Paul Kelly. Perhaps he could run for labor when Penny Wong retires?

Also Grace Tame, who I think could win if she ran. I don’t know who she would run for though, almost certainly a party of the left. She is a bit controversial though.

Li Cunxin, the Ballet Dancer, would be someone I would vote for, regardless of party. He would bring great perspective to the parliament, in Foreign Affairs (especially Chinese affairs), in the Arts and in Finance (he became a stockbroker), as well as from his childhood. However he has some health problems and is probably a bit too old. I think he would be a Liberal candidate, with his finance heritage and the fact that his wife’s father was once a Liberal candidate.

David Pocock and Nova Perris are other examples of sportspeople/celebrities going into politics. Alex Dyson another well known person to run for politics, and he may get in this year.

I could potentially see Pat Cummins going into politics one day.

@Adam – There’s also Liesl Tesch, Matt Cowdrey, Dawn Fraser, John Alexander, Ric Charlesworth, Pat Farmer, Sam Groth, Dan Repacholi, Zali Steggall. There’s actually a lot of professional sportspeople that have gotten into politics.

Oh Groth was already mentioned.

Sports people don’t necessarily make good politicans some do of course. I remember a famous boxer ran for parliament in the Philippines. The question was asked what the hell would he know of politics

Another example is Mal Meninga, who famously gave up in the middle of his sentence whilst being interviewed.

Some good picks here!

@Darcy Grace Tame would run for Labor or the Greens.

@Adam Pat Cummins would probably go to Labor, I mean he wants to change the date of Australia Day but I don’t know if cricketers are too prone to vote Greens. I mentioned Kerr for the Liberals because she would be the first LGBT Liberal MP from WA IIRC and she hasn’t actually called for a change of the date or anything and while she’s active in LGBT issues. She could still go to Labor though but she’s neutral on the monarchy/republic debate and while many Labor voters are neutral or even pro-monarchy the only neutral major party is the Coalition whereas Labor supports a Republic in its charter and practically all Labor MPs do.

@Mick Quinlivan not necessarily but often they make good MPs given their notability, appeal and (usually) younger age and often become Sports Ministers.

Gil langly alp mp 62 to 82
Mp for Unley a marginal seat

@Mick Quinlivan it’s interesting because cricket seems to have a more upper/middle-class background so you’d think a lot of cricketers would be Liberal voters. But then one of them represented an electorate in Parliament for Labor.

@Nether Portal JT would probably be Labor’s only shot of ever winning back Herbert.

@Scart probably

Celebrity candidates get hamstrung by the party system. The haven’t spent their lives playing factional games and then once they arrive have to generally tow the party line. They are much better off running as Independents if they think that they have something useful to contribute. If David Pocock was just a Labor Senator you would never hear anything from him.
Collingwood Captain Darcy Moore is someone who we will eventually see entering politics. He is really well spoken and not afraid to give his opinion on many socio-political issues. He is really smart as well, got an ATAR well into the 90s (could have even been 99+ from memory), has a Commerce Degree from Melbourne Uni and is currently studying an International Relations Degree while still playing footy.

@witness i have heard that he was also very involved in the arts in high school.

Angry Anderson would be another person who tried to run for office for the Nationals for the now abolished federal seat of Throsby in 2013 and state seat of Cessnock in 2015 (withdrew however) as well as the Senate for NSW in 2016 for the far-right Australian Liberty Alliance. He also Islamophobic hence he joined the ALA.

@Scart who is JT?

@NP sam kerr would likely run for labor. most athletes/ sportspeople would be labor or greens voters given they are mostly activists and of the elite class who are trending towrds supporting leftist causes and the woke agenda although some are liberals it the same with actors

@john Johnathan Thurston.

@John she could run for Labor, but a moderate Liberal would be fine too (plus Perth is a more conservative city and she’s reportedly neutral on the Republic debate). But teammates like Mackenzie Arnold or Ellie Carpenter would be more conservative though; while both are lesbians Arnold is from the Gold Coast and is 30 while Carpenter is 24 she grew up on a farm in Cowra which is a rural town (she is another one I would love in Parliament, she could be the first gay Nationals MP too which would be significant), so their parents probably vote for the LNP and Nationals respectively based on geographic trends.

I think sportspeople wouldn’t vote Greens because they usually are fine with Australia Day and most sing the national anthem with pride and like the Australian flag along with the Indigenous flags. The Greens don’t like the our flag or our national anthem and they are fiercely pro-Republic and anti-Australia Day. Labor are pro-Republic too but are less concerned about the other issues.

I think it depends on the person. Thankfully Australia isn’t as divided as the US where most of Hollywood is Democrat, here in Australia they usually don’t make political endorsements, at least not until after their career ends. In the US you see people like Taylor Swift openly endorsing Democrats and Kanye West endorsing Republicans and promoting conspiracy theories which are things that can divide fanbases, whereas after retirement it doesn’t do that as much.

Overall it’s unlikely that a really big celebrity like Sam Kerr or Nathan Cleary would run for Parliament, but a couple of less well-known but still well-known people are almost certain to run in the future. Who they would be we have no idea but we know at least someone would put their hand up.

In other news, Albo has threatened to call a snap double dissolution election if the opposition and crossbench continue to block Labor’s housing bill in the Senate. However, the Coalition and the Greens are unconcerned by the threats, with critics labelling it a stunt.

There are already upcoming elections in the ACT and then Queensland, the latter of which is expected to see the incumbent state Labor government suffer a heavy defeat to the LNP opposition.

there is speculation of up to 4 rate cuts next year. given the stting dates and the last possible election date i imagine they may too late to save labor. given there are only 3 meeting of the rba bfore the lection i imagine we wil only see 1 maybe 2 before the election. and they may be too late to have any effect on votes given one decision is only 4 days before the last posible date. and most people may have already pre polled, absentee or postal voted before that happens.

I can’t see a DD. What is the upside for the ALP? At the very best they will hold steady, but the possibility of being at a further disadvantage in getting bills through the senate must be there.

@John, if there are rate cuts prior to a May election we would be in a serious recession and that would outweigh any positive from rate cuts.

Seeing where the polling is at at present, Labor might get to 5 seats in Vic, NSW or WA. Good chance they would only get three in Qld. To get the legislation through, you need a joint sitting – they would need to have votes in the Reps to make up for the deficiency in the Senate. That would seem hard at present. The other downside is that a DD resets the Senate clock to 1 July prior to the election – fine if it is in July (as per 2016) or even August but later in the year or early in the new year – it triggers an early election at the next election if the houses are to be in synch – 1977 and 1984 are both examples of that. I don’t quite understand the timing issues but at this stage there is only a very small window to have a DD. I may be wrong but December and/ or early February might be the only conceivable times to have one.

@mostly well they are tippling 4 rate cuts by august next year. tbh that sounds a little good to be true so im saying 1 or 2 as the rba wont go that hard unless there is something seriously wrong with the economy.

@Np albo is just blowing steam and atm he would likely lose any DD election given his polling and the CoL crisis. not to mention there are voter in qld and vic who want to beat up the first labor government who walks past. i imagin they will not be as seriously flogged in wa as that govt is still relatively popular enough to survuve in some seats. but in qld people are wanting to punish labor and if albo goes to an election he would lose numbers in the seate not gain them he would likely lose at least 1 in qld and 1 in wa and probly alot worse as there are alot on f mnior parties who would get enough quota to come into the senate so hes luffing and i bet the greens and libs will cal his bluff.

@redistributed there is also the time factor and the fact hed have to recall parliament when they are supposed to be on break. he would need the legislation to be defeated twice 3 months apart and given the last date for calling a double dissolution is january 26 hed need to have a vote by oct 25th at the latest. bottom line he wont call an election because hed surely lose