Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the next Australian federal election. This guide will include comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2022 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
On this page you can find links to each individual profile for all House of Representatives electorates, and the Senate contests in the six states and the two territories.
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Most of this guide is currently only available to those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I have unlocked five House profiles and one Senate profile for everyone to read – scroll to the end of this page to find the list of unlocked profiles.
Table of contents:
Local electorate profiles
Profiles have been produced for all 150 House of Representatives electorates.
You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile:
You can use the following map to click on any lower house seat, and then click through to the relevant guide where available.
Senate profiles
Profiles have been written for the Senate races in all six states and both territories.
- New South Wales
- Victoria
- Queensland
- Western Australia
- South Australia
- Tasmania
- Australian Capital Territory
- Northern Territory
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Contact
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@same difference. It’s the same party then.
2 new polls today. Lib 52-48 in freshwater. Labor back to 50.5-49.5 in Roy morgan
Polls don’t decide elections, voters do. Polls are incorrect, if people don’t turn out to vote none of this would matter
@daniel t I’m aware of that but remember polls are conducted based on voters intentions and are merely a snapshot. We are due for another newspoll on Friday along with quarterly state breakdowns
The idea that polls ought to be dismissed because they “don’t decide elections” implies an epistemological stance that holds that all scientific investigation is worthless. “Theories and models don’t decide what happens, what happens is what happens!”
Polls most times on a global basis tend to be correct . Of you have multiple polls showing similar they establish a trend.
this weeks newspol will give a state by state breakdown and more accurately show how things are going to trend come lection time. i for one think labor is gonna get q hiding in victoria since unkie the other states the voters there dont have a state governemnt to punish before the election
I’ve got a good question for some commenters that’s been floating my mind recently:
Famous people from sportspeople (tennis player Sam Groth is the Liberal MP for Nepean in Victoria while cricketer Nathan Bracken ran as the Liberal candidate for The Entrance in NSW) to singers (Peter Garrett was the lead singer of Midnight Oil became the Labor MP for Kingsford Smith) to many others (banker Malcolm Turnbull became the Liberal MP for Wentworth and later became PM) have run for politics before and many more will in the future, including some stars today.
If you could pick any current or former celebrity (singer, actor, athlete, businessperson, etc) to run for any party (specify), who would you pick? You can choose more than one.
For me I would love to see a young person enter politics. I’m quite sporty so I know of a few sportspeople who would be good in Parliament. It would be really cool if a young moderate joined the Liberals or the Nationals. I would love for someone like Sam Kerr to run in a small-l-liberal seat after retirement (although she’s a lesbian I think a moderate leader like Turnbull or even Crisafulli would be fine, not Dutton though), I think she would win a seat like Perth (she’s from Perth so she would probably run in a Perth seat).
Any thoughts?
Good idea!!
I would love to see Paul Kelly. Perhaps he could run for labor when Penny Wong retires?
Also Grace Tame, who I think could win if she ran. I don’t know who she would run for though, almost certainly a party of the left. She is a bit controversial though.
Li Cunxin, the Ballet Dancer, would be someone I would vote for, regardless of party. He would bring great perspective to the parliament, in Foreign Affairs (especially Chinese affairs), in the Arts and in Finance (he became a stockbroker), as well as from his childhood. However he has some health problems and is probably a bit too old. I think he would be a Liberal candidate, with his finance heritage and the fact that his wife’s father was once a Liberal candidate.
David Pocock and Nova Perris are other examples of sportspeople/celebrities going into politics. Alex Dyson another well known person to run for politics, and he may get in this year.
I could potentially see Pat Cummins going into politics one day.
@Adam – There’s also Liesl Tesch, Matt Cowdrey, Dawn Fraser, John Alexander, Ric Charlesworth, Pat Farmer, Sam Groth, Dan Repacholi, Zali Steggall. There’s actually a lot of professional sportspeople that have gotten into politics.
Oh Groth was already mentioned.
Sports people don’t necessarily make good politicans some do of course. I remember a famous boxer ran for parliament in the Philippines. The question was asked what the hell would he know of politics
Another example is Mal Meninga, who famously gave up in the middle of his sentence whilst being interviewed.
Some good picks here!
@Darcy Grace Tame would run for Labor or the Greens.
@Adam Pat Cummins would probably go to Labor, I mean he wants to change the date of Australia Day but I don’t know if cricketers are too prone to vote Greens. I mentioned Kerr for the Liberals because she would be the first LGBT Liberal MP from WA IIRC and she hasn’t actually called for a change of the date or anything and while she’s active in LGBT issues. She could still go to Labor though but she’s neutral on the monarchy/republic debate and while many Labor voters are neutral or even pro-monarchy the only neutral major party is the Coalition whereas Labor supports a Republic in its charter and practically all Labor MPs do.
@Mick Quinlivan not necessarily but often they make good MPs given their notability, appeal and (usually) younger age and often become Sports Ministers.
Gil langly alp mp 62 to 82
Mp for Unley a marginal seat
@Mick Quinlivan it’s interesting because cricket seems to have a more upper/middle-class background so you’d think a lot of cricketers would be Liberal voters. But then one of them represented an electorate in Parliament for Labor.
@Nether Portal JT would probably be Labor’s only shot of ever winning back Herbert.
@Scart probably
Celebrity candidates get hamstrung by the party system. The haven’t spent their lives playing factional games and then once they arrive have to generally tow the party line. They are much better off running as Independents if they think that they have something useful to contribute. If David Pocock was just a Labor Senator you would never hear anything from him.
Collingwood Captain Darcy Moore is someone who we will eventually see entering politics. He is really well spoken and not afraid to give his opinion on many socio-political issues. He is really smart as well, got an ATAR well into the 90s (could have even been 99+ from memory), has a Commerce Degree from Melbourne Uni and is currently studying an International Relations Degree while still playing footy.
@witness i have heard that he was also very involved in the arts in high school.
Angry Anderson would be another person who tried to run for office for the Nationals for the now abolished federal seat of Throsby in 2013 and state seat of Cessnock in 2015 (withdrew however) as well as the Senate for NSW in 2016 for the far-right Australian Liberty Alliance. He also Islamophobic hence he joined the ALA.
@Scart who is JT?
@NP sam kerr would likely run for labor. most athletes/ sportspeople would be labor or greens voters given they are mostly activists and of the elite class who are trending towrds supporting leftist causes and the woke agenda although some are liberals it the same with actors
@john Johnathan Thurston.
@John she could run for Labor, but a moderate Liberal would be fine too (plus Perth is a more conservative city and she’s reportedly neutral on the Republic debate). But teammates like Mackenzie Arnold or Ellie Carpenter would be more conservative though; while both are lesbians Arnold is from the Gold Coast and is 30 while Carpenter is 24 she grew up on a farm in Cowra which is a rural town (she is another one I would love in Parliament, she could be the first gay Nationals MP too which would be significant), so their parents probably vote for the LNP and Nationals respectively based on geographic trends.
I think sportspeople wouldn’t vote Greens because they usually are fine with Australia Day and most sing the national anthem with pride and like the Australian flag along with the Indigenous flags. The Greens don’t like the our flag or our national anthem and they are fiercely pro-Republic and anti-Australia Day. Labor are pro-Republic too but are less concerned about the other issues.
I think it depends on the person. Thankfully Australia isn’t as divided as the US where most of Hollywood is Democrat, here in Australia they usually don’t make political endorsements, at least not until after their career ends. In the US you see people like Taylor Swift openly endorsing Democrats and Kanye West endorsing Republicans and promoting conspiracy theories which are things that can divide fanbases, whereas after retirement it doesn’t do that as much.
Overall it’s unlikely that a really big celebrity like Sam Kerr or Nathan Cleary would run for Parliament, but a couple of less well-known but still well-known people are almost certain to run in the future. Who they would be we have no idea but we know at least someone would put their hand up.
In other news, Albo has threatened to call a snap double dissolution election if the opposition and crossbench continue to block Labor’s housing bill in the Senate. However, the Coalition and the Greens are unconcerned by the threats, with critics labelling it a stunt.
There are already upcoming elections in the ACT and then Queensland, the latter of which is expected to see the incumbent state Labor government suffer a heavy defeat to the LNP opposition.
there is speculation of up to 4 rate cuts next year. given the stting dates and the last possible election date i imagine they may too late to save labor. given there are only 3 meeting of the rba bfore the lection i imagine we wil only see 1 maybe 2 before the election. and they may be too late to have any effect on votes given one decision is only 4 days before the last posible date. and most people may have already pre polled, absentee or postal voted before that happens.
I can’t see a DD. What is the upside for the ALP? At the very best they will hold steady, but the possibility of being at a further disadvantage in getting bills through the senate must be there.
@John, if there are rate cuts prior to a May election we would be in a serious recession and that would outweigh any positive from rate cuts.
Seeing where the polling is at at present, Labor might get to 5 seats in Vic, NSW or WA. Good chance they would only get three in Qld. To get the legislation through, you need a joint sitting – they would need to have votes in the Reps to make up for the deficiency in the Senate. That would seem hard at present. The other downside is that a DD resets the Senate clock to 1 July prior to the election – fine if it is in July (as per 2016) or even August but later in the year or early in the new year – it triggers an early election at the next election if the houses are to be in synch – 1977 and 1984 are both examples of that. I don’t quite understand the timing issues but at this stage there is only a very small window to have a DD. I may be wrong but December and/ or early February might be the only conceivable times to have one.
@mostly well they are tippling 4 rate cuts by august next year. tbh that sounds a little good to be true so im saying 1 or 2 as the rba wont go that hard unless there is something seriously wrong with the economy.
@Np albo is just blowing steam and atm he would likely lose any DD election given his polling and the CoL crisis. not to mention there are voter in qld and vic who want to beat up the first labor government who walks past. i imagin they will not be as seriously flogged in wa as that govt is still relatively popular enough to survuve in some seats. but in qld people are wanting to punish labor and if albo goes to an election he would lose numbers in the seate not gain them he would likely lose at least 1 in qld and 1 in wa and probly alot worse as there are alot on f mnior parties who would get enough quota to come into the senate so hes luffing and i bet the greens and libs will cal his bluff.
@redistributed there is also the time factor and the fact hed have to recall parliament when they are supposed to be on break. he would need the legislation to be defeated twice 3 months apart and given the last date for calling a double dissolution is january 26 hed need to have a vote by oct 25th at the latest. bottom line he wont call an election because hed surely lose
The latest resolve monthly breakdowns have put the alp ahead in nsw but the libs are doing well in Vic. No data yet for qld. Tomorrow’s newspoll will be interesting
I’ve got a question for some commenters that has not been talked about much:
Australia has seem have avoided a large scale demonstrations that is seen in America and Europe.
Example are
– Black Lives Matter protest in 2020 caused by the murder of George Floyd from police brutality. It mobilized 15-26 million to protest (like 5-8% of the American Population) about police brutality and racism. A equivalent issue would be Aboriginals killed by the police such as Kumanjayi Walker yet there was no significant protest
– 2023 French Pension reform unrest where the French Government raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 and has mobilized 1-3 million people to protest (1.5%-4% of the French population).A equivalent issue would be Tony Abbott 2014 budget which will lead to the eventual retirement age to be raised to 70 and while there was a sizeable protest, it is nowhere close to the very large proportion if the population.
Clarify I do not ever endorse violence as it does happen in a small amount within both protest but I am proving a point that a popular mass and effective protest hasn’t not happened in Australia. (things such as Union rallies and Anti-vax demonstrations do not count as they are niche)
I theorize for the same issues overseas, Australians are much more reluctant to protest . The factors might be tall poppy syndrome given the strong political apathy in the Australian public leading to less moderates in the protest which itself means the people remaining in the protest are the most highly vocal or ‘extreme’ which itself further reduces the moderates. After all, a successful and popular political demonstrations require moderates to join (i heard of the 3.5% of the countries population rule). Of course the rules to protest made from state and federal governments does not help.
Any thoughts?
@Marh – there are protests every week in the Sydney CBD. They close off the streets for 1 – 2 hours for Palestine. Whilst it may not be in the news – living in the city it is bloody annoying and you have to wonder what for. What impact does the protests have? Also many politicians for the first time have closed their offices due to protests. So there are protests which is not the Australian way.
latest newspoll maintains 50-50 on tpp. they haent released state breakdowns yet but resolve reportedly has labor In Western Australia, the results have Labor down eight points on the 2022 election to 29% but the Coalition steady on 35%, with the Greens up three to 16%. In South Australia, Labor is down seven to 28%, the Coalition is steady at 36% and the Greens are up one to 14%.
will post 2pp on those states and qld when it becomes availble
Mr. Dutton told 2GB radio on Monday that Australia’s First Nations ambassador position would be axed/abolished on “day one” under a coalition election promise, as Labor stands by the value of Indigenous diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific. unsurprising for someone who built their political career on division.
this alone would drive up Aboriginal Turnout.
@caleb seriously doubt it. the only people who mainly care about these token positions are inner city leftists and wealthy north shore residents. thats why the voice failed in all but those divisions. indigenous people make up about 1% of australias population. and only about 10% max of those people even care are these tribial issues.
@John correction indigenous people make up about 3.8% of Australia’s population
@caleb that figure is imflated by people identifyinf as aboriginal for x reasons unless the aboriginal birth rate has exploded in recent ywars
Qld is close to rock bottom In terms of federal seat numbers. . Blair and Lilley will not be lost
The seats Labor currently hold are seats they could hold with the exception of
Griffith.. held by Mr hypen of the greens. … even if they did not hold government
I think you will find a lot of aboriginal people are not on the electoral roll or tend to drop off if they do get registered. And John is right – disadvantaged aboriginal people in remote areas that need help don’t place much stock in ambassador positions in Canberra that are not going to solve their problems.
@John yes the figure is inflated but still it’s over 2.5% nationwide.
Need to clarify that ABS only counts how many people listed themselves for a group, not a person particular official status so I assume many part-blooded Aboriginals listed themselves in the census in recent years.
There are three criteria for proof of aboriginality: is a member of the Aboriginal race of Australia, and. identifies as an Aboriginal person, and. is accepted by the Aboriginal community as an Aboriginal person. It is the third criteria that makes fraudulent harder.
Thank you @Marh
@mick i agree labor wont lose any qld seats at this election with the exception of possibly blair however i do beliee several are at risk in 2028 including lilley and rankin. oxley wont flip because its pretty safe and will only get safer after redistribution in my opinion. moreton probably wont flip either. griffith is pretty safe for the left as long as the greens and labor preference each other
@ John
You owe Scart $1000 after losing the bet that there will be an interest rate rise in either August or September.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2025/comment-page-15#comment-813674
@ Scart
Please include an email address so John can make contact and you can provide bank account details so many can be transferred.
*money
@nimlan i believe he refused that bet
@ John
Ok i will let Scart comment on that as it is between both of you.
@Nether Portal I do know that both Mark Taylor and Glen McGrath have got connections into the Coalition, both having parents who were previously members of the National Party before their move to Sydney. From what I understand, Hasim El Masri is friends with Ned Mannoun as well and was even being discussed as a potential future councillor.
Another one is former cricketer Adam Crosthwaite, who was very good friends with Mike Baird.
For Labor, Im pretty sure Steve Waugh has been involved previously.