2025 Australian federal election

1. Douglas, it still can be changed through an amendment in parliament. There is nothing stopping this. It would not need a referendum during a war. WW2 was much different than the potential threats we face today. But any delay would likely only be a few months and again, it can be done. It happened in the UK during WW2. It isn’t like the USA where there is fixed term elections.

   And there is nothing stopping a federal election in 2024 even if it conflicts. There was talk SA would delay their election in 2022 if Morrison wanted to go in March. Nothing stopping the NT delaying until after a fed vote (Im not sure how they initiate a delay in the states but since SA considered it) I see no reason why NT couldn’t. And since the Federal gov has more powers over the territories (I read that they can override territorial legislation) the feds can do it themselves.

   But the PM would have to have a good reason to call an early election and delay the NT election to avoid conflict.

   I also don’t see any reason the PM would split up half senate and house elections without a good reason either.

   So a federal election can be called in 2024, and if necessary any local/state elections could be shifted until just after the federal election.

   I don’t think its necessary for federal elections to always be held in May. Bad timing. September-December was historically the more common period for elections and in my view would be better.

2. Capricornia is interesting @nimalan, the last male MP was Paul Marek, ’96-’98, before him Keith Wright ’84-’93.
   The others were women, 2 ALP, 1 LNP/Nationals.
   Michelle Landry is the only born and bred Rockhamptonite to have held the Seat since at least 1922, all others were blow ins, yet Labor has failed to unseat her.
   They’ve put up 3 men and one woman against her and the woman was the only one to get a Swing.
   Going back to 1998, Kirsten Livermore received a swing at every election until she faced Landry in 2010, when she lost 9.57% and retired at the next Election.
   Bottom Line: Capricornia looks winnable for female candidates only in the last 25 years.

3. @nimalan its defined as seats held not winnable

4. “if necessary any local/state elections could be shifted until just after the federal election.”
   – It’s not quite that simple. There’s 4 of them. And WA on top of that.

   “I don’t think its necessary for federal elections to always be held in May. Bad timing. September-December was historically the more common period for elections and in my view would be better.”
   – In the purest sense, one could theoretically hold an election anytime one wants. September-December as an example is fine but there’s always some context. At the first level (the electoral one), there’s 4 other competing ones and 4 redistributions this year. If it was one year ahead – 2025 – then there’s only WA Local in October – https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2223/Quick_Guides/WhenIsTheNextElection2022 – so that’s a different proposition. Maybe redistributions too but that’s another matter. Even 2023 might have worked according to that link with only WA Local. Ignoring referendums.

   Heck, the referendum last year was right in your suggested timeline – October 2023. That’s an election of sorts. Two candidates.

   Having said all that and despite most inferences suggesting the current parliament is likely to go full term, I do see one scenario where there’s an election called for the end of the year. But it’s quite unlikely.

5. @gympie “A credible local female candidate would do at least as well, and Milton Dick could be swapped out for similar, solving the quota problem for a while.” Not happening until Dick decides to go – the Dick family is one of the more powerful ones in the ALP, with Milton previously serving as ALP State Secretary and his brother Cameron is the current Member for Woodridge.
   Also Entsch has a ridiculous +15% for indigenous community booths over the best State LNP results in 2012. Just a reminder that when he “retired” in 2007 the Liberals lost Leichardt, only to pick it up again in 2010 when Entsch “unretired”.
   However one of the major problems is the seats are all over the place once you get past Noosa. For example, Capricornia includes Collinsville, part of the the Whitsunday Regional Council. The rest of the WRC is in Dawson and you literally have to drive past the Dawson electorate office to get to Collinsville from Rockhampton. There’s not a single undivided regional city in North or Far North Queensland.
   @Nimalan Perrett is not a great performer and on occasions says amazingly stupid things. However he has some of the better electorate office staff in Queensland with a very, very low turnover.
   Also Neumann is practically an endangered species in the ALP – not just from the Conservative ASU but also as a practicing Christian.

6. Mark, from what I read from previous Queensland federal redistribution reports – the main issue causing the cascade of ‘split regional cities’ stems from Leichhardt having to include Cairns with the Cape York area.

   Many submissions including ones in the recent redistribution suggested transferring all of Cape York to Kennedy and converting Leichhardt into a purely urban district focussed on Cairns only (similar to the seat of Herbert). This would partially solve some of the ‘split’ regional centres, but there was substantial opposition to that proposal and the AEC simply opted for a minimal change approach.

7. Dawson included Yeppoon, Emu Park and Nerimbera in 1974.
   If you lived in Nerimbera, it was a 250 mile trip through North Rockhampton to Sugar Ray Braithwaite’s office in Mackay.
   Everinghams Capricornia office was 7 miles away in Rocky.

8. @mark i read somewhere its scheducled to being in dec 2024

   @daniel t its says that because thats the last date it can be held

   G by my estimes it will either be August 3rd or May 24th. for the following reasons:

   August 3rd the electoral calendar is jampacked with NT election on the 24th, september is a nono due to afl & nrl finals oct youve got act and qld elections for labor to be devoting resources to. then even if he called it straight after it could be nov 30th or dce 7th but i dont think he’ll go that late and then you got holidays and start of the new year then a wa election in march then easter in april.

   Also yes on the redistribution excpet it would be Perth, Hasluck and Hasluck-Perth.

   if he goes august 3rd its to avoid the unfavourable redistribution although given his standing in the polls lately and the fact hes probly gonna be in minority he’ll probably want to hold on as long as possible in majority. ive had 2 sources state different dates. 1 whos well placed with both parties suggested he wants to go in oct and the other stated the 2025 budget has been moved forward to march instead of may indicating hes planning on delivering the budget sweeteners or the fact he cant do it while in caretaker

9. @ Mark Yore
   Agree, it is important that Labor includes people of faith including the practicing Christians. It is important to remember that much of Labor heartland especially in the ethnoburbs of Western Sydney, NW Melbourne, SE Melbourne etc includes people of faith. The Labor party IMHO cannot become the Democrats by trying to appeal to wealthy traditionally Liberal voting suburbs by appealing to Social Progressives on issues such as Abortion etc as people in these areas often have Green or Teal options in any case which better aligns to their Class identity. If the Labor party tries to present itself as the Secular Party they will end up as a fringe party like the Reason Party.

10. sry il correct it would be Cowan, Hasluck and Cowan-Hasluck. so going early to avoid the redistribution would be just as bad as trying to avoid it as it would cost him 2 seats, 1 in each wa and vic anyway and a potential teal ally in stegall / spender and if they were to run against each other i reckon spender would win because it wold probably be an ind v ind in 2cp and the libs would prefer her over stegall since when they broke up again they would be in the box seat to win warringah since having spender in wentworth is probably goign to beneficial to them long term given the redistribution is likely to make wentworth marginal at best for the libs.

    on the other teals i think 3 will lose their seats. Tink due abolition of North Sydnet, Monique Ryan is the weakest in Kooyong and Kate Cheney in WA to the redistribution and correction of the WA result. are the lowest hanging fruit. the others will hold barring some scandal but tbh i think the liberals will be happy for them to support a albanese minority govt as it would only serve to expose them. also if haines backs albo i reckon she’ll go to. though she’ll probably jump ship rahter then face the voters

11. John – “by my estimes it will either be August 3rd or May 24th”
    Interesting. I’ll guess we’ll all find out soon enough, particularly for a May date – that’s very soon.

    re: Perth / Hasluck. I was just going off what Antony Green stated in his post – “In Western Australia, the inner-northern Perth seats of Perth and Cowan would be divided into three seats. Both seats are currently Labor held.”

    Antony Green on an early election:
    “The argument for going early is that a well-received budget in May 2024, combined with the delivery of the promised stage 3 tax cuts on 1 July, would be a good time for the government call an election.
    In my opinion, that only works if August 2024 is going to be much better economically than May 2025 given the cynicism there would be over a government not going full term.”
    https://antonygreen.com.au/when-will-the-next-federal-election-be-will-it-be-held-early/

12. @g that was before the updated number issued now its hasluck and cowan

13. also i meant may next year

14. Ah. I see. Thanks for clarifications.

15. There are in my opinion 16 seats the libs could target obviously probly won’t get all but i can think of 2 for Labor. Mrnzies/jagjaga would become marginal Labor seats but the libs could potentially win it,

16. The precise reason elections should not be held in my view is because that is around the time of the budget, and it will promote parties to give free goodies to people to buy votes.

    Holding it late in the year will avoid this, giving 4-5 months after the budget allows the affects to die down but also people to realise if they are actually better off because the financial year starts on July 1st.

    I feel like any government is cheating calling an election 1 month after the budget. Call the election late in the year like Howard had the decency to.

17. The timing of the budget is not a permanent force of nature. Federal elections were regularly held in March for about a decade in the 80s and 90s, and budgets were held later in the year then.

    I don’t know how you could call it “cheating” for an election to be called exactly three years after the last election.

18. Howard called his first election six months early, in October 1998, because he feared the Asian financial collapse would sink the economy by early 1999. He was thereafter locked into spring elections in order to maintain simultaneous House/half-Senate elections.

19. @daniel so your advocating for a dictatorship?

20. Nice suggestion, Daniel. Fixing the budget schedule would be helpful, like fixing electoral terms.

    Ensuring budgets are handed down 6 months before an election would be good for everyone:
    – Corrupt politicians don’t deserve the opportunity to sell porks to buy votes.
    – Clean politicians don’t deserve the potential imputation as being crooked.
    – Society and all commercial operations would have clarity and certainty for any changes.

21. Daniel

    “Douglas, it still can be changed through an amendment in parliament. There is nothing stopping this. It would not need a referendum during a war. WW2 was much different than the potential threats we face today. But any delay would likely only be a few months and again, it can be done. It happened in the UK during WW2. It isn’t like the USA where there is fixed term elections.”

    Do you mean in your first sentence that the constitution can be amended by Parliament? I would hope not. If there is a clause in the constitution that says the Constitution can be thrown out in the event of an emergency, I should like you to cite it. The Parliament may only make laws as is considered constitutional by the High Court, and hence any attempt to overrule it without a referendum would be illegal. For examples of the High Court overruling the Parliament, see Australian Communist Party v Commonwealth and Bank of New South Wales v Commonwealth. If you intend to continue arguing this point without any evidence to support your claims, I will leave the matter there.

22. I have mixed feelings about Daniel’s idea. It is up to voters to be discerning. If we are so stupid to fall for pork barrelling, well, we get what we deserve. I don’t think voters should be protected from their own poor decision-making.

    Fixed terms would solve the issue too, right?

23. I’m expecting an election in May 2025, if I had to guess the month and year. That’s when the half-Senate election is due, but the HoR isn’t due until Sep 2025. Of course, it’s better to have both on the same day. The last two general elections were in May so there’s already precedence.

    The second-half of 2024 is taken up by ACT, NT and QLD elections. There’s also impending redistributions due later this year. I don’t think there’ll be an election until redistributions are finalised. The WA election is in March 2025. To avoid conflict with various elections, redistribution processes and the summer and school holidays, sometime in May 2025 gives 2 months to campaign without any elections.

    There’s also major international events in H2, 2024 like the Olympics, US and most likely UK elections, though I’m not implying either event will affect the timing of our elections. Either way, there’s a reason to be glued to our screens.

24. @Votante the House and Senate election cycles haven’t been out-of-sync for more than 50 years. The last time it happened was in 1969 when there was a House election while the Senate election was held in 1970.

25. shouldn’t you be complaining about people who sell their votes at the same time?

    A seller is nothing without someone who buys it

26. I’ve made a map showing target seats for the next federal election. You can view it here: https://jmp.sh/pxaZsROl (the map is an SVG file)

    The seats in purple are targets for the major parties, while those in pink are targets for the Greens, those in magenta are targets (or potential losses) for the Dai Le & Frank Carbone Network (DLFCN) and ones in teal are targets (or potential losses) for the teals. The darker the shade, the more targeted it will be. The top targets for the majors are Blair, Deakin, Gilmore, Lyons, Menzies, Robertson and Sturt.

    The cities and regions that will be targeted will be northern Sydney, eastern Melbourne, Moreton Bay in Brisbane, most of Perth, pockets of Adelaide, eastern Tasmania, the Central Coast, the urbanised semi-rural areas just outside of Melbourne and southeastern NSW (the Monaro and South Coast regions). Notable random standalone targets are also found, such as Leichhardt in Far North Queensland, a few seats in the outer suburbs of Sydney, as well as the seat of Richmond in far northeastern NSW, where the Greens are ambitious about gaining the seat from Labor to give them a seat in NSW despite it being quite difficult for them to win Richmond.

    As for Richmond, I think I’ve covered it before but I’ll just give a quick recap. The Greens are desperate to win the seat because it includes hippie towns like Byron Bay despite the Greens not doing well in the electorate’s main city, Tweed Heads, which switches between Nationals and Labor depending on the year and depending on where you are (Tweed is a state Nationals seat and Ballina, where Byron Bay is, is a state Greens seat; as for Tweed Heads suburbs: Banora Point for example votes Nationals on the federal and state levels and Liberal on the local level all the time). The thing is, the Greens can’t win if Labor finishes first. I don’t even think the Greens will make the TCP count in 2025 to be honest. Here’s why the Greens can’t win if Labor finishes first: because Nationals preferences will favour Labor over the Greens, while the Nationals will benefit from strong preference flows from right-wing minor parties like One Nation and the UAP, which puts them in second place. The Greens can only rely on Labor preferences. For the Greens to win Richmond, they would either need to finish first with a considerable margin or they would need the Nationals to finish first with like 35% primary then the Greens would need at least 25% of the primary vote and Labor 20% which would result in the Greens winning on Labor preferences. If the Greens finish first and Labor finishes second but the margin between the two is close then Nationals preferences will still be enough for Labor to win.

27. The nat 3CP for Richmond 35.63%. Considering you need >33.33% to automatically make the 2CP, it seems highly unlikely the Nats won’t make the 2CP next time.

    Greens only need a 1.5% lab to green swing to win. They’d win the seat if there was a 3% alp-Nat swing

28. @ NP
    Great work, love the map. I largely agree with your analysis. Just a couple of points and clarification
    1. You seem to have Shortland/Hunter in Red so i am assuming you dont feel they are in play?
    2. You seem to have Werriwa in Red as well so i am assuming you dont feel it is in play?
    3. I personally dont think Hindmarsh is in play, the current boundaries make it a safe Labor seat since Port Adelaide was abolished. The old boundaries allowed for Libs to win it but the current boundaries.
    4. I dont feel Issacs is in play with Dutton as leader it is quite a socially progressive seat and more middle ring rather than outer suburban mortgage belt. A moderate or centre right Liberal leader works better.
    5. In QLD, i feel Labor has a better chance in Petrie/Bonner than Longman, Capricornia and Flynn. The latter 3 are White Working Class where Dutton will have greater appeal than middle suburbia.
    5. I think both Durack/O’Connor can be labelled Solid Blue for the Libs.
    6. Of the Gains that Labor made in 2022 i feel Swan, Chisholm, Reid and Boothby are the safest.

29. *current boundaries for Hindmarsh make it a safe Labor seat

30. If Dutton losing this election who is his successor? Constance entering the lower house in Gilmore gives the liberals an option there for next leader.

31. @ AA
    Dutton may continue to be leader if he makes significant inroads even if he does not form government like Kim Beazley, Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten and may get a second go.

32. @Nimalan thanks and thanks for the comments.

    1. I don’t feel Shortland is in play and redistribution means Hunter probably won’t be in play either.
    2. I meant to put Werriwa in purple. Thanks for pointing that out.
    3. Hindmarsh is in a light shade because the margin makes it possible but it’s still not likely. The southern end is more Liberal while the northern end is more Labor.
    4. Isaacs is only purple because of the margin. It would be a bad loss if Labor lost it given that Mark Dreyfus is the current Attorney General
    5. Flynn is only a light shade because of its margin but I don’t think it’ll fall. Longman is purple because it’s usually a bellwether seat so Labor will target it, but chances are they probably won’t win it. I wasn’t sure whether to put Capricornia or not.
    6. I agree, Durack isn’t really a target. Must’ve been an error I made.
    7. Potentially yes but they could still fall back to the Liberals.

33. In saying that, margins don’t mean though. On paper Shortland is winnable for the Liberals but in reality it’s unlikely. Even Ryde which is an ultra-marginal state Liberal seat that the Liberals won in 2023 by just 54 votes is unlikely to fall to Labor anytime soon.

34. @ NP
    Agree that margins are sometimes deceptive. Some seats are more volatile than others especially mortgage belt seats. Some seats are marginal because they are mix of demographics. Other seats are changing due to changing demographics. For this reason, i think Pearce is more in play than the margin would suggest.
    A couple of additional suggestions
    1. I think it is very unlikely that Labor will be competitive in Monash despite a retiring member. Labor is doing better in Bass Coast LGA due to sea changers but i feel the rest of the seat is trending conservative. Probably, can be a very light shade of purple
    2. I feel Corangamite is less in play for the Libs despite a very recent history of being held by Libs. The seat is quite socially progressive and been trending left with growth of sea changers. Maybe a moderate Liberal leader can win this but not Dutton. Again maybe a lighter shade of purple.
    3. I feel Moore despite is margin is not really in play for Labor and can be a lighter shade of purple. There was a big swing to Labor in WA. Labor will probably look to sandbag what they have in WA. Also less favorable demographics for Labor than other seats the Libs narrowly won in 2022 such as Deakin, Menzies, Sturt and Aston (counting as a Liberal seat as it was won at a general election and ignoring the by-election)
    4. Longer term i do think the Libs can target Issacs though
    Therefore 2 seats are probably more Liberal IMV than on your map and 1 more Labor.

35. Nether Portal, I disagree. Lane will lose. If it really is a ”marginal seat” and if Labor improves their position in 2027 due to the high number of Liberal marginals. Then why wouldn’t it flip?

    What makes Ryde lean liberal if so? I have asked this many times but people just say ”it is a marginal seat” But it still tilts Liberal. so what are the demographics in Ryde that make people vote for a party who don’t give a toss about people with a disability and single-mother, low income earners including those who struggle paying rent and their mortgage?

    Young voters are not turning to the L/NP at nearly the same rates as historically. Kos samaras pointed this out. If you look at the 18-35 cohort, You will see even as they age (Millennials prime example) are not shifting to the LNP. this spells trouble for the LNP. and that is why I do not believe they will win half the seats you think they can/will win in 2025. especially here in Victoria.

    They will win Monash, because that is more of an older population. But I can see Labor winning Aston, Deakin and holding Higgins. But lose the more older/outer areas like La Trobe, Casey and Monash which I mentioned before due to them being different seats as the former.

    But the Libs will continue to slide in the city/inner suburb areas I mentioned unless they fix their ”young voter” problem. I was at UNI the other day at a clubs fest and there was a Liberal club being advertised, I was at the fest for the full 4 hours. and I did not see a SINGLE student approach the Liberal stand but lots around the Labor ones. Even the socialist alternative one had people at it. (But barring in mind this is in the electorate of Melbourne) There are still allot of people at my UNI that are from the suburbs including seats like Higgins, Deakin, etc.

    Libs will not win 2025 or 2028 unless they can win a majority of the following seats (There is no argument that they win them outside of Labor pulling 2010-2013 unpopularity levels or the LNP pick a likeable centrist young leader (under 50) that appeals to these parts;

    Higgins, Deakin, Kooyong, Menzies, Swan, Cowan, Ryan, Curtin, Boothby, Sturt, North Sydney (if it exists), Bradfield, Warringah, Wentworth, Mackellar, Reid, Banks, Parramatta, Solomon, Brisbane, Bonner, Aston, Bennelong) etc. Most of those have younger populations. The Libs may have the TPP in half of those but I can see them losing a further 3-4 of those under Dutton.

    Sure, they can take seats with older voters like Richmond, Hunter + the super marginals like Gilmore and Lyons, But is it enough for gov? Nope. Not close. and unless they are winning places like Spence, Makin etc. seats that are more outer suburb/working class but are not ”woke” then they are NOT winning gov.

    How do you win the seats I am speaking of that used to be represented by the likes of Turnbull, Hockey, Bishop. when all you are doing is saying aggressive statements towards China, our largest trading partner like ”Prepare for war”? How do you win these city seats if you are threatening to cut money out of NDIS and other schemes that are huge help to people like me to fund AUKUS when we don’t even know if the next USA president will be supportive of it, and is unlikely that we even need anyway? All this war-rhetoric with China is the reason they will not be winning seats like Kooyong and Higgins.

    And how do you win these seats if you are still denying fundamental science or at least doing a very good job presenting yourself out to be, denying climate change and refusing to commit to the 2030 targets?

    I could go on, But point is, I do not know a single young person who supports the Libs, and I know many people from the outer suburbs who come here in the city to study. I know a few who had parents who voted Liberal in the past but stopped voting Liberal ever since.

    The point I am trying to get across here is simply that the math does not work out in the Libs favor to win gov if they cannot win most of the seats I mentioned before, and I see no argument as to how they can win them unless they start changing their rhetoric/stances on the issues I mentioned. Because Cost-of-living is not going to do it alone, especially since voters are fully aware the coalition were in power when the hikes in rates started, and people are not forgetting the 2019-2022 period.

36. @Daniel T the things that make Ryde lean Liberal are the fact that it’s middle-class and geographically it’s in a part of Sydney where the Liberals usually do well. It has large Asian communities, especially large Chinese and Korean communities, but that doesn’t seem to be a liability for the Liberals. Epping is geographically and demographically similar to Ryde. Jordan Lane is a former Mayor of Ryde. The Ryde City Council is governed by a Liberal majority and a Liberal Mayor (the new Mayor is Sarkis Yedelian). The swing away from the Liberals in 2023 was part of a big statewide (and especially Sydney-wide) swing where Labor won only a minority government despite winning 54% of the statewide TPP vote, plus Victor Dominello retired and he was a popular and very good local member.

37. @Niamlan on the Gosford 2023 page I have a link to another map I made for target seats in NSW for the next state election.

38. Updated thoughts since last post:

    Victoria: Forgot about Monash – Broadbent running again as an independent will throw things out of whack. I don’t think he will retain but if he preferences Labor above his old party (and vice versa) it could be interesting, especially if Nats also run. I think even outer suburban Melbourne and the peri-urban fringe isn’t going to go for Dutton – Dunkley wasn’t that close for a byelection. Looking forward to the redistribution.

    SA: I think there’s potential for something to happen in Grey but not sure the non Liberal forces will bother to try get it. Greens have declared Sturt a target seat but them doing well will probably push Labor over the line rather than themselves.

    Tasmania: I confidently said in my previous post that Lyons will be a Liberal gain, but I’m less sure after the Tasmanian election. The aftermath of the election that just passed is going to be a shitshow and I can see it impacting the Liberals enough that it won’t be easy for them to An SDA ghoul (still a dominant force in Tasmanian Labor) subtly running as a social conservative may be able to get Bass back off Bridget Archer but I think being a pseudo independent will work in her favour. I also think the Greens have enough of a leg to stand on in Franklin that they could run a personal campaign against Julie Collins for her performance as housing minister and it might get some traction. Perhaps Nick McKim could bet his political career on it (with the Greens doing well enough in Tasmania to open the door to a new senator).

    ACT: The more I think about it, the more I think there’s a good chance of Liberals preferencing Greens over Labor. Dutton wouldn’t personally like it, but his QLD party has done this before. It would make minority government a much bigger possibility which would be the main goal for the Liberals at this election (unless there’s evidence the teal vote has collapsed). It would also risk spreading Greens thin (opening up a whole bunch of seats as winnable) which will give them the best chance of taking back Ryan and Brisbane. This would put Canberra on the board as very winnable, and there’s a chance they may be able to run Rebecca Vassarotti (if she loses Kurrajong). If this doesn’t happen then Greens will run as dead in the ACT as they do in the NT until the senate is expanded or Pocock quits.

39. These are the target seats for each party.
    Libs: Hunter, Paterson, Robertson, dobell, Macquarie, calare, Parramatta, bennelong, new Western Sydney divisions x2, hughes/cunnigham, werriwa, gilmore, Eden monaro, Blair, menzies/jagajaga, mcewen, dunkley, aston, Monash, boothby, Lyons, lingiari with an outside chance in Solomon, pearce, swan, tangey, new wa division, cowan, Ryan, Brisbane, kooyong, curtin, corangamite

    Labor: Moore, canning(doubtful), Sturt, Lindsay, menzies/jagajaga, hughes/cunningham, melbourne

    Greens: macnamara, richmond

    Teal: bradfield

    In regards to Richmond the coalition should be running both candidates. Leakage from greens to coalition is lower then Labor to coalition so if it becomes greens v national the coalition could theoretically reclaim it. I think Labor have maxed out their gains and won’t gain any net seats and won’t gain enough to offset the losses to the coalition to avoid minority govt. Sydney and grayndler will fall to the greens once plibersek and albo retire though I think grayndler will be abolished or reconfigured enough to hold it for Labor before that. The redistribution will make the marginal lib seats safer

40. Will Dai Le retain fowler and will her new party (DLFCN) target any seats?

41. Will Dai Le retain fowler and will her new party (DLFCN) be targeting seats in Western sydney?

42. @john:
    “Leakage from greens to coalition is lower then Labor to coalition so if it becomes greens v national the coalition could theoretically reclaim it.”
    Completely opposite in Qld.
    Labor voters are incredibly disciplined, perhaps 1 in 200 doesn’t follow the HTV.
    By comparison, anywhere from 5 to 15% of Greens voters end up preferencing LNP over Labor.

43. @gympie we could see a lib/lab alliance to unseat greens members given Labor want to hold richmond and macnamara and retake melbourne and griffith

    @dragons Iit will depend on how badly fowler is carved up. It’s in that sweet spor like north Sydney that will problem see it broken up between at least 3 divisions.

44. @John I really doubt the Liberals will preference the Greens in 2025. Recently, Liberals like Alexander Downer and Julian Leeser have labelled the Greens worse than One Nation on the grounds of anti-Semitism, and such a preference deal would probably cause a lot of anger in the Liberal membership base. Besides, I don’t think someone like Dutton cannot afford to be seen as sympathetic towards the Greens in any way; it just goes against his whole persona.

45. @ (other) John, why do you think Labor should/will target the seat of Melbourne? There’s no indication that Bandt is stepping down, and he is on the verge of polling a primary vote majority in his own right. Surely there would be better seats for Labor to target?

46. I agree with GPPS, I highly doubt the L/NP will preference Greens ahead of Labor this time. The Israel issue is pretty much the only thing that unites the Libs at the moment. The libs are targeting the Jewish community and also the Christian Right are hostile to the Greens and that is a demographic the Libs are increasingly reliant on. For this reason, i think the Greens will target (on current boundaries) more Blue Green seats such as Macnamara, Richmond etc rather than ALP/.Green seats such as Canberra. The one exception is Wills due to Palestine and Peter Khalil support for AUKUS.

47. they wont especially over the whole israel anti semitic issue but labor prabably will and that will cost them jewish votes. that could however help liberals in seats like wentworth, kooyong, higgins and goldstein

48. These are the seats to watch at the next election
    QLD: Blair, Ryan, Brisbane, Leichardt
    NSW: Richmond, eden-monaro, gilmore, werriwa, Lindsay, Macquarie, Hunter, Paterson, dobell, Robertson, hughes, banks, Reid, Parramatta, fowler, bennelong, bradfield,
    Vic: indi, mcewen, corangamite, wannon, wills, menzies, deakin, Higgins, macnamara, kooyong, dunkley
    SA: boothby, Sturt
    TAS: Lyons
    WA: cowan, curtin, Moore, pearce, hasluck, canning, swan, tangey
    Nt: lingiari, lyons

49. @John Lyons is in Tasmania, not the Northern Territory. Did you mean Lingiari and Solomon for the Northern Territory?

50. Overall I think Curtin is probably the most likely gain for the Liberals out of all the teal seats.

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