2025 Australian federal election

Voice vs Republic map: https://jmp.sh/RjvopQg8

Green: more support for the Voice
Red: more support for the Republic

Sorry for the delay everyone.

@John probably just after WA.

@NP ive put my money on this year the odds were too good to pass up

@ Nether Portal
Great map just a few ones if you could double check
1. Mackellar narrowly voted No to the Republic but voted Yes to the voice
2. Fowler voted No the voice while it voted Yes to the Republic
3. Solomon voted Yes to Republic but no to Voice
4. Moreton, Issacs , Blair and Swan should be Green

Also Bean should be red.

@Nimalan oh sorry the key is wrong. Red is more support for the Voice.

So yes, believe it or not, Lingiari had a higher Yes vote to the Republic than the Voice.

Wait no, red is more for the Republic. I’ll fix those errors.

so based on their public statements about Peter Dutton we cn assume Monique Ryan Sophie Scmaps Zoe Daniels and Zali Stegall will back Labor in the event of a hung parliament. id assume wilkie will back labor to save himself at very least. Dai Le Katter Spender Chaney Haines and Sharkie could either way. but it will probably come down to who gets the most seats. i dont think either side will deal with the greens while their is sucha big crossbench to deal with. Greens will only side with Labor but their wishlist would topple Albo in 2028. If it go so bad Albo even needed the Greens chances are the Libs would be in a position to get the crossbench on side anyway. so i think the greens will be left out in the cold in 2025. if the crossbench was to shrink then only then do i think the greens would come into play

The West Report does a good job summarising Dutton’s “Policies” https://youtu.be/R9b5NUGPA04?si=VfzPrg8Ubuf86PsA

so its been announced that the govt is bringing forward next years budget by 2 months to march so this would seem to indicate a may election. looks like the govt is gonna try and bribe voters

also from yesterday the other 2 mps who wanted it overturned were Ged Kearney from Cooper and Alicia Payne in Canberra. so all bar Jerome Laxale are in seats that are under threat from the Greens. i doubt Ged Kearney will be in for any risk in Cooper but Alicia Payne could be in Canberra

latest newspoll remains at 50-50. in other news rob stokes has already reportedly declined an offer to run for Mackellar

im wondering could this war going on between labor and the cfmeu effect the election?

It seems that every major CBD has its own small-l-liberal areas, or areas where the Liberals traditionally finish first (but in recent times lose to Labor, the Greens or teals on preferences):

* Adelaide: Fitzroy, Medindie, North Adelaide
* Brisbane: Albion, Ascot, Clayfield, New Farm, West End
* Canberra: Deakin, Yarralumla
* Hobart: Battery Point, Sandy Bay
* Melbourne: Docklands, East Melbourne
* Newcastle: Merewether, Merewether Heights
* Perth: East Perth, Mount Lawley, Perth (itself), West Perth
* Sydney: Millers Point, Pyrmont

And so on.

Will this change in the future? Will these booths go leftwards or could a moderate save them?

redbridge has just a released seat polls for Goldstein in Victoria and Curtin in WA bth showing the Libs leading 53-47

I wouldn’t trust electorate level polling though as they have a very large margin of error.

@marh not necessarily but still thats whats being reported. we are due for a state by state breakdown friday week so that will be interesting. but if dutton can get goldsteain, kooyong and curtin that puts him within a chance of winning the election. in my opnion dutton needs a minimum of 71 seats and albo 67 since he has the advantage of greens always going to side with him over dutton

Ascot and Clayfield cannot be reasonably called part of the Brisbane CBD. They’re both 20 minutes drive away. They’re more akin to places like Vaucluse or Toorak, similarly wealthy and similarly far from the CBD.

@john not quite seat polling, was an MRP, Curtin and Goldstein were just the examples first released to media

@Wilson they’re in the Brisbane electorate though. Also, Vaucluse is 9.9km from the Sydney CBD. The 17 minute drive is mostly just traffic plus you can’t drive as fast in the CBD.

I would still call Edgecliff (a Liberal suburb in Wentworth that voted No, same as Vaucluse, etc) an inner-city or CBD suburb given its only nine minutes from the CBD. I would say the Sydney CBD’s eastern boundary is somewhere like Bellevue Hill, Double Bay or Point Piper, and anything east of that is the Eastern Suburbs. That leaves a couple of Liberal and teal suburbs in the Sydney CBD, and probably more than every CBD beside those in Brisbane, Perth and Darwin.

The fact albo and labor are about to start attack ads against duttons nuclear policy is an indicator of an incoming election you can’t tell me theyre gonna be running them for 8 months

farmers are today driving from across the country to protest against the governments live sheep ban among other things

@Nether Portal

Ascot, Clayfield and New Farm are not a part of Brisbane CBD, but are inner-city suburbs. Also, West End is not a “small-l liberal” suburb, it’s more like Newtown in Sydney – a progressive “counter-culture” inner city suburb with lots of young renters.

@AA oh yeah I didn’t mean to say West End. I got it mixed up with New Farm which I also said.

in my opinion the odds of the election result are 55-45 to labor. Broken down its 54% chance of labor minority, 1% chance of labor majority, 41% chance of liberal minority and a 4% chance of liberal majority. I think if albo goes all the way to May it will only increase Liberals chances if things do not get any better and its for that reason if i were albo i would be going to an election as soon as the qld election is over

There should be fixed terms like in nsw We all know when the next election is due. There is no reason to hold an early election and sometimes this can become an issue by itself.

@John 1% is pretty low.

I agree about the election, but I specifically think it will be in summer, either December, January or February. This might encourage a lot of postals in some towns though as the temperatures in the outback can get to 50°C in summer.

@NP thats the chance of a labor majority. i have al but ruled it out but never say never. in regards to the election its probably about a 33% in december, 40% chance in may and about 17% in april. i give it no chance in january or february given that a govt will not go to an election during holidays. they even held off the by election in dunkley so it didnt coincide with the holidays.

@mick unfortunately that can only be changed by a referendum

@john, very unlikely it will be December due to not wanting to interfere with Christmas Shopping (That was why Howard choose November for the 2007 election)

@marh if he goes right after the qld election he can hold it nov 30 or dec 7

@John
Yeah it does look like there’s a small window between the end of the redistributions on October 17th and the US election on November 5th, where Albo is going to have to make the call.

My guess is that he’ll try to hang on until May with the hope that a few interest rate cuts improve the national mood, but I’ve seen the odds for a 2024 election and it’s a reasonably good bet to take.

In 2022 there were 28 divisions which had a 2PP swing to the Coalition:
– Fowler, for obvious reasons
– 14 in Outer Melbourne and Regional Victoria (Bruce/Cooper/Calwell/Flinders/Fraser/Gellibrand/Gippsland/Gorton/Hawke/Holt/La Trobe/Mallee/McEwen/Scullin), presumably due to anti-lockdown sentiment
– 7 in Regional New South Wales (Calare/Gilmore/Lindsay/Page/Parkes/Paterson/Whitlam)
– 3 in Northern Tasmania (Bass/Braddon/Lyons)
– 1 in Queensland (Herbert)
– 1 in South Australia (Spence)
– 1 in Northern Territory (Lingiari), probably due to the retirement of Warren Snowdon

What do we think are the areas or divisions that are likely to swing towards Labor at the coming election?

@Angas

2010 is what I expect to be a similar sort of election to the coming one, perhaps less favourable for Labor in terms of swing. In 2010, the following seats had swings to Labor:

Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Page, Corio, Deakin, Isaacs, Maribyrnong, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide, Wakefield: Sophomore Surge

Robertson: High preference dilution from independents and right wing minors

Aston, Kooyong, McEwen, Wannon: Loss of personal vote

Lalor: Boost as a result of becoming party leader

Canning: Star candidate

Ballarat, Bendigo, Calwell, Casey, Dunkley, Gellibrand, Gorton, Higgins, Holt, Hotham, Jagajaga, La Trobe, McMillan, Melbourne, Melbourne Ports, Scullin, Wills: Unclear (Victoria?)

Boothby, Hindmarsh: Unclear

All of Tasmania: Tasmanian politics I would presume

Queensland did not swing to Labor in any seat. I do not think there would be a Victorian resistance in 2025 as there was in 2010. I think inner cities would be the best bet for 2PP swings towards Labor, but won’t eventuate.

The Rudd…. Gillard fights hurt Labor in 2010.. there is currently no dispute with.in
The alp re Albanese ‘s being pm

@Douglas the states of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania as well as the ACT all swung to Labor in 2010, while the states of NSW, Queensland and Western Australia plus the Northern Territory swung to the Coalition.

But it’s not reflective of state politics really because look:

* NSW: in 2011 the very unpopular Labor government led by Kristina Keneally would lose power in a historic landslide as polls predicted for the years prior to the election, and the Coalition did very well federally in 2011 and 2013 because of this but in 2013 they still failed to pick up key marginal seats they would’ve won on state figures in 2011, 2015 and 2019 and would’ve been very competitive in in 2023
2. Victoria: in 2010 the state Labor government of John Brumby lost to the Coalition (which ended up being a one-term government) but yet federal Labor had a swing to them there
3. Queensland: the LNP would sweep power in a historic landslide against Labor under Anna Bligh and had lost Kevin Rudd’s personal vote in the state and Queensland had a correction of its votes
4. WA: in 2008 the Labor government of Alan Carpenter was defeated by the Liberals with support of the Nationals and that new Coalition government would end up winning in 2013 in a landslide
5. SA: in 2010 Labor had lost votes to the Liberals who won the TPP but lost the election
6. Tasmania: the 2010 state election saw a hung parliament elected only for the resulting Labor-Greens coalition to become deeply unpopular and lost in a landslide to the Liberals in 2014
7. ACT: the Liberals nearly won in 2012
8. NT: the CLP would go on to win the 2012 general election by gaining remote seats despite a low presence in Darwin

Overall it was a bad time for Labor as most Labor governments and Labor Premiers nationwide were at least somewhat unpopular since all but two of them lost power to the Coalition in or before 2014.

In my personal opinion if he waits until May Duttons chances only improve and il likely give him 50/50 odds. If Albo goes straight after the qld election he should hold on albeit in minority

The accent research poll has Aston, Curtin, lingiari, Lyons, Gilmore, Paterson and Goldstein all falling to the libs

@Angas

In victoria he coalition has a good chance of gaining Bruce and McEwen at this election and will probably see swings towards it in other seats after it bottomed out in 2022. Seats like Chisholm and Dunkley could also be won. They should hold braddon and bass and gain lyons in Tasmania. In NSW Whitlam has gotten more favourable boundaries and there will likely be a national and liberal candidates, Paterson and Gilmore are two seats im putting back in the liberal column and tbh Gilmore probly only left it because Morrison tried to parachute Mundine in 2019 and Constance almost won it against the tide in 2022. Other seats like Eden-Monaro might be in play too. I reckon if the libs put up a candidate in Richmond alongside the Nats that can be won as Justine Elliots PV has tanked in recent years and should be ripe for taking for the right candidate. In sydney seats like Werriwa, Parramatta, Reid and Greenway they should be able to win if not in 2025 then in 2028. Bennelong should flip in 2025. In SA i give the coalition a good chance in Boothby and should regain the 2pp from labor in Mayo. In the Northern territory they should be able to flip Lingiari and if they can repeat the NT election reults in Darwin should be able to flip Solomon. In QLD Blair should be vunerable which is the reason why albo has protected Neumann from being removed by gender quota and i imagine the LNP should benefit from a honeymoon from the state govt and hopefully make in roads in the other QLD seats they dont currently hold. Although Labor will probably chip away at Leichardt after Entschs retirement.
As for WA the libs bottomed out in 2022 and shuoldnt lose any more seats after recovring from the abnormal swing in 2022. They should easily win Tangey and Bullwinkel which has no incumbent MP though they still should have half a chance in Pearce, Swan and Hasluck and i imagine will push seats like Cowan back to marginal status

i also think Andrew Gee could retain his seat of Calare as he will likely receive preferences from all the other parties.

@John I don’t think he will, I think the Nationals will regain it. Even if he finishes second Labor would have to do well for Andrew Gee to win as an independent.

@NP i said he could not would im not ready to call that seat just yet

Coalition wishful thinking once again it seems, Gee should have little issue as an ex-national. Usually Nat MP’s who defect are re-elected.

Liberals are not winning Bruce, it is a safe seat, that is a complete joke, They are also not winning Chisholm parachuting a Morrison-era disgraceful MP into the seat over the previously endorses Liberal candidate. Nuclear energy is also unpopular in Victoria. (and don’t mention the polls please) the polls don’t show the full picture, just look at the 18-35 demographic who are going to decide the election. (Libs can’t win if they do very bad with 18-35 like they did in 2022)

I agree the Liberals will win Lyons, Gilmore, Lingirari and Paterson as a bare minimum, but you also are discounting potential Labor gains in Victoria.

And Boothby???? Do you realize Nicole Flint is the candidate? Yeah (No), she is not winning anything, she is a sky after dark MP, who only BARELY held on in 2019 which was a good year for the coalition, and with Boothby slowly moving away from the Liberals, they have no chance, They should use their resources to defend Sturt because that will be lost to Labor if they aren’t careful.

I agree a Labor minority, but Labor is not losing government after 1 term, 1931 was the last time, Dutton is as unpopular as Albo, but the coalition is not winning with the longest suicide not in history, They need to change their policies and introduce the economic policies of the Hawke-Keating government (Labor should be doing this themselves) and they need to stop debating climate change and promising stuff like nuclear power and coal fired power which only pleases their mates on sky-news and murdoch, Hydro power is the way to go, Learn from the Tasmanian Liberals Peter!

Also after the by-election Dunkley IS NOT in play, never in a million years under Dutton.

Here is a more realistic prediction.

ALP 71 (-7) (Including Aston From Previous Total)
L/NP 63 (+4) (Excluding Monash From Previous Total)
GRN 5 (+1)
OTH 11 (No Change Because I Am Counting Gee)

@Daniel T *realise not realize

Anyway:

1. Nationals MPs who defect usually were elected but now they aren’t because of what happened with Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor.
2. I agree, Bruce and Chisholm will be won by Labor.
3. As for the polls: the state Liberals are now AHEAD in Victoria. But I assume you mean the federal polls, so I’ll leave that one.
4. Nuclear power combined with renewables (solar, wind, hydro, etc) is the way to go. You can’t just use one.
5. I also agree that the Liberals will win Gilmore, Lyons and Paterson and that the CLP will win Lingiari (and Solomon will be closer than last time) I also think the LNP will pick up Blair and the Liberals will hold Bennelong because it’s a notionally Liberal seat. They should also gain back a couple of WA seats.
6. Labor might gain Deakin and/or Menzies in Victoria but will probably lose Aston, or if they keep Aston they won’t win Deakin and/or Menzies. It’s somewhat scary as a Liberal to think that the federal Liberals are so unpopular in Melbourne that they may only hold one seat in the second-largest city in Australia. That’s not including the hybrid seats of Casey, Flinders and La Trobe. The seat the Liberals might pickup though is the hybrid seat of McEwen.
7. I also agree that Boothby cannot be regained by Nicole Flint. She didn’t have a personal vote, some MPs just don’t (George Christensen in Dawson is a good example), the swing was coming anyway.
8. Dunkley will only be that close again if Nathan Conroy runs again, he’s the Mayor of Frankston and is popular around there.

Overall the next election will test the Liberals in the major cities, especially Melbourne and Adelaide where the Liberals have a chance of being wiped out for the first time in history.

@daniel t
1. Bruce is not a safe seat anymore after redistribution it has become marginal along with Chisholm.
2. I’m predicting at lest 8 seats from Labor to the Coalition, but yes those four are among them.
3. I dont imagine she will win as SA is probably one of Labors strongest state aside from WA but i expect the 2022 vote to go backwards for them. Sturt is still a ? mark for me.
4. Theres always a first time for something in 2023 a government hadnt won a seat off an opposition from a by election in 100 years but it happened and im also predicting Libs to regain Aston.
5. I’m also predicting a Labor minority government with around 70-71 seats. But Minority is the best case scenario for Labor. There are plenty of seats to make a coalition minority or majority possible.
6. Well we we will see what happens in Dunkley in 2025.
7. How does Liberal + 4 and Greens +1 = -7 for Labor?

@NP
1. Im giving Gee at least 1/2 a chance at Calare depending on the numbers.
2. Im not ruling out a Liberal win
3. there is also polling to show they are doing well in victoria at a federal level
4. nuclear is the future for base load while hydro may be able to power a small state like tasmania it wont work for the whole mainland
5. agreed
6. I think the vote bottomed out in 2022 and theyll retain those
7. never say never
8. probably

the liberals may not win but they will be well setup to win in 2028

John, the coalition has lost around 3-4 seats since the election via defections and by-elections. I am basing the totals off of that. If it was since last election I believe the Libs would gain about 5 or 6, Either way my seat total still adds to 150.

If the coalition wants to get to 76, they need seats like Shortland, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Corangamite and Richmond (If the Teals hold onto most of their seats)

Actually 2 of those were from disendorsed members gee wascaused by Labor voice referendum. I didn’t say they would win those seats just that was the pathway to 76. Tbh I think it is highly unlikely they will but there is a path to it however unlikely and I think they willbe better off not as having.a Labor minority govt in will only hurt Labor and help the libs to get a commanding majority in 2028. And will help them win those teal seats back

Monash?

Member lost preselection and then quit

@John the Libs have never had a majority, that’s why they’re part of the Coalition w/Nats.