2025 Australian federal election

@Marh except Monique Ryan is an embarrassment.

I’m not alleging anything here but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone claimed Labor planted the teals in those safe Liberal seats given that the teals don’t stand up to Labor or the Greens but will happily blast the Coalition with allegations of racism and sexual misconduct against Peter Dutton and others.

@Marh Kooyong is probably more likely than Mackellar simply due to Monique Ryan being a complete joke and Amelia Hamer being an excellent candidate.

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if someone claimed Labor and the Greens planted the teals in those seats simply just to get rid of prominent moderate Liberals so the Liberals go further to the right and become less electable and to get government with their support, because all the teals do is criticise the Coalition and accuse Dutton and others of racism, misogyny and sexual misconduct. But they’re fine with rising debt, a cost-of-living crisis, CFMEU chaos and thuggery, Greens wokeism, etc. They never seem to criticise Labor or the Greens. And they hardly ever address anything, they just call out the Coalition over and over again. I’m not promoting any conspiracies though.

I also think Boothby, Parramatta and Swan could be in play

Monique Ryan will not lose her seat. The only factor putting this seat anywhere near a certain retain is the redistribution.

In her community she is seen to be taking action on things that matter, more so than the government even. The HECS petition has made her the most recognizable teal.

@np I don’t really understand why you think she is an embarrasment.

@NP In the case of the teals, I wouldn’t say correlation = causation. Yes they’re against the Liberals, and yes, part of them winning was tactical voting by Greens and Labor voters to defeat Liberal members – it’s a no brainer decision after all (flip side would be Dai Le – she used to be a Liberal, but she no longer is – and again it’s a no brainer for Liberals to tactically vote for her as their best chance of knocking out Labor, but that doesn’t mean she’s a “Liberal plant”). Not every voter is as politically attuned to think, oh this member is a moderate, I should keep them around ensure the moderate power base is still strong in one of the major parties – many just vote for or against the government/leaders themselves.

Being in moderate blue ribbon seats themselves, it also makes sense though that the teal members would oppose the Liberal Party as they are currently, which while nowhere near say the US Republican Party, have under Dutton, pushed the party (at least federally anyway) in a more populist conservative manner compared to say a small-l liberal manner that would appeal more to these seats. While it may not hold true for all teals, there have been Liberal murmurs about Allegra Spender that she was “the one who got away”, aka someone who should have been part of the Liberals but isn’t. She’s also shown to be the most economically liberal of the teals.

My gut feel is that if minority government were to occur again ala 2010 where it’s lineball and down to the crossbench to deliver confidence and supply, Dutton wouldn’t want to negotiate with most of the teals anyway. Also, imagine it was a situation like this – the teals say they will support a Liberal government but only if Peter Dutton is not the leader (these situations have happened before – take Bob Katter who supported Abbott in 2010, but said if Rudd was still leader, he would’ve backed Rudd). Do you think he would give in and resign to let another Liberal take them into government with the teals support? Or refuse their demands? I would think the latter.

@WL you make a very good point. But what I’m saying is they should criticise both parties. One Nation is obviously closer to the Coalition than Labor but they still criticise both parties (and their arch-rivals the Greens).

As for Allegra Spender, there were rumours the Liberals wanted to court her to join the party.

@WL Consider this, if Dutton does resign to make way for another leader to gain the confidence and supply from the teals, the party base and the SkyNews mob will absolutely tear them apart the same way they do so to Matt Kean and John Pesutto. That would pretty much guarantee a 1 term unstable minority government which the Libs would much rather not have.

@Darcy She’s a joke because she purports to be a “small-l Liberal” despite being a former Labor member who left Labor because they weren’t left-wing enough for her.

@Dan M Sky News are absolute morons. Hardly anyone watches them.

Labor’s worst case would be in minority and have to depend on the Greens . That would be a recipe for confrontation and obstruction, and Labor would be the loser on every front.

@Nether Portal Hunter and Reid are more likely than any of the teal seats.

For anyone who thinks that the Teals doesn’t criticise Labor, they might need to come out of whatever rock they’re hiding under because some of them have been absolutely brutal in remarks about Albanese and his government (which at the moment, seems to have no idea where it wants to go, ala. it wants to appeal to the ‘middle’ but finds itself leaning to the right and taking an each way bet on everything whilst constantly looking at the Liberals in rear-view mirror, newsflash they don’t need to have to see what the Coalition does to do well).

Zoe Daniel for example has been a prominent critic of the government’s half-arsed gambling reforms, as have Kate Chaney on political donations. Zali Steggall was one of the biggest critics of the Stage 3 tax cut reforms (no surprises given her electorate are all cashed-up folks). I do have to agree that the likes of Monique Ryan and Sophie Scamps have been fairly tame in comparison, but they’ve basically let the others do the talking. Allegra Spender’s probably the only ‘true’ teal in that she’s into the same economic policies that would’ve been previously Liberals’ ballpark but she’s socially progressive everywhere else.

Another thing, if Dutton’s plan to not focus on net zero and climate action (whilst focussing on unrealistic nuclear power) is the plan he takes to the election then the Teals won’t be losing their seats. Yes those seats are on low margins (bar Warringah) but given those seats voted for Teal last time because of climate change action (plus anti-Scomo), then they’re not going to suddenly change their vote back to Liberals under Dutton who plans to undo all that. Indeed we could be seeing the likes of Hamer, Wilson etc crucified at the polls if they’re chanting the same Climate Change inaction lines Dutton has been trying to feed out.

Now Labor seats are a different story. Quite a few of them are vulnerable this time round and not all of them are in areas that want climate change action because their industries thrive upon things that have nothing to do with renewables (cough coal cough). Not to mention the outer-suburbs where the ‘angry voter’ sentiment will certainly feature. Then there’s the issue of Gaza…Labor will surely be on the offensive and defensive this time round, lest they want to become a one-term government.

@Scart I think Curtin and Kooyong are more likely than Hunter and Reid. Hunter will be more based around the Lower Hunter than the Upper Hunter at the next election and while Drummoyne is a Liberal seat on the state level based on federal results in Reid it would be a Labor seat.

@Tommo9 the teals never personally attack Labor or Greens MPs. They’re more than happy to make unparliamentary, defamatory and false accusations against Coalition MPs though (accusations of racism for wanting to protect our borders, for example).

@Scart I agree about Monique Ryan. She is not a small-l-liberal. When has she ever advocated for lower taxes, less government, etc?

@trump I’m willing to back those in a well however I don’t think they will get them all

Np on regards to Robertson I think this could be the end of that bellwhether

@John who do you think will win it next time?

I think libs might pick it up at this election

I actually think the Central Coast is trending towards Labor. Labor got 56.5% in Dobell their best result since 1993. In Robertson Labor got 52.3% their best result since 1993. Both seats voted more Labor in 2022 than 2007.

All of the statewide seats that are in the Central Coast have got some of Labor’s best ever results: Gosford, Swansea, Wyong, The Entrance and Labor nearly won Terrigal. Robertson has one of the highest yes votes for a regional seat. Robertson seems like the kind of regional electorate that is trending towards Labor. I think it will continue to be a bellweather in the future.

Robertson had a letter result for the voice than the republic one of the few seats and also 2007 was a better result for Labor in NSW statewide

Under Dutton the liberals have moved to the right… there is no place for the teals in such a party. In olden days liberal candidates would have Always have won the 7 metro seats and the teals could have been endorsed for such seats.

Now this is no more

@mick the teals are not liberals most have not voted liberals their entire lives they they are wolves in sheep’s clothing

@Drake Terrigal was a one-off. It’s the only marginal seat in NSW that I don’t think is in play at all. However I can see the Liberals one day winning Gosford and The Entrance comfortably and marginally win Wyong.

Anyway, if the 2019 federal election used 2019 state results, the Liberals would’ve still won Robertson since Labor got a lower TPP in Gosford than the Liberals did in Terrigal.

I reckon one day Terrigal and The Entrance will be mostly Liberal seats but the latter will sometimes go to Labor and Wyong will mostly be Labor but sometimes go Liberal, so Gosford will be the main bellwether seat.

Both Allegra Spender and Kate Chaney are from Liberal families and are the daughters of prominent Liberal politicians. I don’t think they were ever Labor supporters in disguise. I’m not sure about the other teals. I believe most went to private schools, but that may not be a perfect predictor of how they voted before.

Robertson will be a bellwether. I’d put Reid as a Labor hold – one of the first term Labor seats that the Libs won’t target too hard.

I’d put Parramatta and Hunter in the Labor column too. The LNP haven’t won either in decades but their margins are slim. Both have first term MPs now and the redistribution will likely help Labor in Hunter. On a side note, there was an earthquake damage in Muswellbrook yesterday, and it was near the proposed site of nuclear reactors but I don’t think it’ll ruffle too many feathers.

@ Votante
Parramatta margin is probably artificially low due to controversy over a South Asian not selected a bit like Fowler. Andrew Charlton since his election has focused on Australia-India Ties and this is a demographic that voted strongly for the voice. Also Parramatta maybe the most multi-racial seat in the country so not a seat that Dutton will play well in. I agree Robertson will be a bellwether.

@John the teals are not Labor or Green they got alp and Green preferences because this was the best chance of defeating a liberal from the view point of left voters. Look at Chris public and Ian Mcphee they were liberal “wets’ such people would no longer be selected by the libs. The teals are part of a crisis for the libs who would have thought the endorsed liberal in Warringah would not be elected. . This was unthinkable even 10 years ago.

@Votante interestingly Greenway and Parramatta on state figures would’ve been Liberal seats until 2023 whereas they didn’t even win them federally in 2013 somehow despite such a good result in NSW.

2013 …. Mr Diaz was seen as a poor candidate so Labor retained the seat.
Parramatta. … on 2022 boundaries was a Labor inclined marginal with a good Labor mp in Julie Owen’s…. this explains why they did not fall in 2013

@Mick Quinlivan I’m aware of the candidate issues but you’d think they could’ve potentially overcome those.

Parramatta was one seat I thought libs could win however putting parts of blackthorn could help alp. I’d say alp retain on a thin margin. Greenways will be a Labor retain until the member retires then expect lib gain

@yes but some like Bali stegall and kyles think have admitted to have never voting liberal. I can’t remember maybe Sophie stamps too

The Territory election now puts Solomon into the mix for the libs to pick up. Granted he may hang on now territorial have taken their anger out on the territory Labor govt

This is the reason also will hang off until after the qld election

@Nether Portal I think Jaymes Diaz hurt the Liberal vote that bad in Greenaway, that they didn’t bother trying to rebuild it. I suspect Vivian Lobo has done the same in Lilley.

@Votante From what I can tell, Dan Repacholi is very popular in the Hunter. I suspect an ALP retain, although with a similar margin.

@aa I think the libs will win in 2028 if not in 2025. I think Labor will retain Hunter this time around due to the redistribution but libs might be able to win it in 2028.

@trump personally I don’t think winning in 2025 should be strategy because Dutton will be a victim of the same circumstances in 2028 if he manages to win in 2025 it won’t be by much and then he will either be in minority or a slim majority and 1st term govts usually always lose seats and with no backbench to burn he’ll be in the same situation as albo so it’s in his interests to get close this time then come in and sweep the field in 2028. 2-3 terms then gets him in ttil 2034-2037

Win lilley*

Senator Gerrard Rennick has quit the LNP after earlier losing LNP preselection and will run as an independent at the coming election.

John, although taking office in a weak position (like minority) does not prevent a party from winning big the next cycle. There have been many cases at the state level, like SA 2002 (Labor’s Mike Rann), WA 2008 (Liberal Colin Barnett), Victoria 2014 (Labor’s Daniel Andrews) and Queensland 2015 where the governing party actually gained ground in the subsequent election.

Also, NSW 1995 where Labor’s Bob Carr also gained ground in the subsequent election.

Steve Bracks in 2002 won a huge majority after forming a minority government in 1999.

Yea but federally governments tend to lose ground after their first election. And without a backbench to burn you don’t want to be in that position.

Yes, that is also one I forgot Nimalan. Although federally might be a bit different because all the changes of government since 1975 (Malcolm Fraser) have been initial big victories that have been eroded over time (either quickly as occurred in 1998, 2010 and 2016) or slowly as was case for Fraser and Hawke.

I think 1972 (Whitlam’s first victory) is the last one to feature a change of government that had only a narrow majority instead of a clear victory.

@yoh an maybe you forgot 2022 when albo had a 1 seat majority winning 77 seats?

@ Yoh An
2022 election was an unusual elections as it was not really a wave election where the traditional bellwethers switched only Roberston was the traditional bellwether that switched. All other seats were Small L Liberal ones (including the 3 Brisbane ones, Boothby and Higgins), seats with high Chinese Australian populations or WA seats. Tangney was a combination of all 3 in parts. I do agree with John to some extent that Labor does not have as much backbench to burn the weakness for Labor in their victory in 2022 was the failure to win traditional bellwether such as Forde, Petrie, Lindsay etc. Even If Higgins does end up staying post redistribution and Labor retains it it may well by Lib V GRN seat by 2028.

@nimalan 2022 happened because scomo just happened to alienate key demographics and Labor fell over the line. In a normal cycle it would have probably been a Labor minority govt. Now that all the deadwood is gone libs should recover. I’m told libs are planning a 2 election strategy the plan is to get Labor into minority and then if the teals back Labor sweep the teal seats up in 2028 along with govt. Aside from Wentworth which is far too marginal now they should be able to regain the rest. By 2028 so that’s 6 seats. Plus what ever the can get from Labor they should have a clear majority in 2028

we should be getting another essential and roy morgan poll in the coming days as well as the next news poll probably by the end of the week

both the essential and roy morgan polls have reiterated the close polling situation the newspoll at the end of the week will be the telling tale

so the current debate on the election timing is does Albo go late and wait until after WA and QLD voters (two states albo is expected to need to hold seats) get their anti labor voting out of their system and hope the CoL crisis gets better or go early after the QLD election before it gets worse?