2025 Australian federal election

If you both seriously think that was anything than a comment made in jest, then your collective analysis is practically worthless. Adios.

May 2025 won’t happen. Name the last time 3 federal elections were held on the same month in a row…. We do not have fixed term parliaments. It won’t be in May, mark my words.

Feb-March is more likely with an early budget.

I am not so sure Daniel. It really depends on 2 things. 1 is the economy, the second is the CFMEU. If Albo thinks both will get worse waiting will just make the existing slightly downward trend in the opinion polls increase. I don’t think he can even hang his hat on a rate decrease, because I think it is now clear that only a full blown recession is going to bring down rates (in reality they seem to be at a fairly neutral position now).

I would have thought a 26 October or November 30 election would make more sense, but in reality things would already be moving if there were to be an October election, so maybe December 7 is the go. I don’t discount rumours about election dates, because a lot of the stuff has to be organised well in advance, halls have to be booked, staff have to be organised, printers have to be organised etc. This can’t be done in two or three days, and someone, somewhere will leak.

@NQ View I’m aware it was a joke. But I was just pointing it out.

@Daniel T @MLV I think the election will be in February next year. It won’t be in May or June.

Those people who normally work for the AEC on election day would have received an email/phone call in the last couple of weeks about the need to re-register their interest in working due to a change in the employment system used by the AEC. So some processes there have begun turning for the next election.

@nq sry no backsies.

Daniel t an election has never been held in February and March is complicated by the way state election which is on a fixed date. He could call it just after the way election and hold an April election the week before Easter though

@mlv October 26 is out due to that being the Qld state election if he were to call it immediately after he could go as early as November 30 but I don’t think he will go any later then December 7 th is year.

@np an election has never been held in January February or June. Jan nd Feb due to holidays and June because it’s impossible to hold a senate election any later then may due to time requirements for the writs to be reutned by June 30

Latest newspoll is 50-50

the last 4 recent newspolls have all put it at 50-50
Date Brand Interview mode Sample
size Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
8–11 August 2024 Essential[1] Online 1,132 34% 28% 14% 7% 1% 9% 6% 47% 47%
7–11 August 2024 Resolve Strategic Online 1,607 37% 29% 13% 6% 2% 13% — 50% 50%
5–11 August 2024 Roy Morgan Online 1,671 38% 29.5%14%5% — 13.5% — 50% 50%
5–9 August 2024 Newspoll Online 1,266 39% 32% 12% 6% — 11% — 50% 50%

@John is there state breakdowns?

not yet newspoll realeases state breakdowns every 3 months but resolve does do monthly but they havent been released yet

These are the seats labor will lose at the next election
Gilmore, Lyons, Lingiari, Bennelong, Richmond, tangey, Paterson, Bullwinkle (notional loss)

These are the seats labor might lose at the next election
Higgins (depending on redistribution), Robertson, Mcewen, Boothby, Hunter, parramatta, Blair, werriwa, chisholm (depending on redistribution), Bruce, Dunkley, Swan, Pearce, macquarie, Eden-monaro, wills, solomon, these could go either way in my opinion and will be marginal at best.

These are the seats that could be lost if the right candidate and circumstances arise
Hasluck, Whitlam, Cowan, McMahon, Lilley, Moreton. highly unlikely but crazier things have happened.

ASton should be on the might lose list too but thats a notional loss since they only won it at a by election

The other thing hampering a 2025 election would be school holidays so in my opinion the only real available dates for an election are Nov 30th Dec 7 maybe December 14 but that would be pushing it or 24th may 2025

We should get august state breakdown relatively soon given the resolve poll is now a week old

New freshwater poll maintains the libs 51=49 lead

Will the Dutton-Steggall legal battle have any impact?

Over?

@John
With ur federal prediction for ALP losses, what do you make of Coalition potential gains that arent from labor (Teals/greens) also do you think Calare will flip back to the nats?

@tom i think all bar wentworth and warringah could be regained however unlikely under the right circumstances. i think stegall is too well entrenched in warringah barring a scandal or some extreme circumstances and spender is protected by the redistribution in wentworth whcih takes in friendly labor territiry shoreing up her seat but realistically the most vunerable seats are curtin because of the corection in wa and monique ryan in kooyong who is the weakest of the teals and a strong cnadidate for the libs. if they can get the right candidate in mackellar scamps could also be vunerable. at the current stage id favor zoe daniel in goldstein though. in regards to the greens seats i think the libs can take at least one of those seats back maybe too but il wait for the qld state results on the overlapping seats first. in regards to calare that could be close because gee will benefit from labor preferences and local indpenedents do have history of doing well in regional nsw as we saw with former nats member tony windosr and rob oakshott.

@john… of your 8 certain alp losses. I don’t think any are certain of course all are marginal …. Labor will most probably get a second term like most governments since 1931?

@mick im guaranting they will be lost. the only hopeful in that list is richmond but i will guarantee the other 7 are lost. labor will likely get a second term but it will be in minority government but at the current rate labor could well lose governemetn also. remember up until recently it had been 100 years since an opposition lost a aseat to the govt. records are made to be broken

John if I were a betting man; I would bet thus for 8 seat pick
Bet 1$2
Bet 2 $ 4
Bet 3 $8
Bet 4 $16
Bet 5 $32
Bet 6. 64
Bet 7 128
Bet 8 256
I OUTLAY $4
FOR YOU TO WIN YOU MUST CONTINUE ALL 8
“BETS”

On a successful basis

@John Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott did well because they were ex-Nationals (well, at least Rob Oakeshott was) and they didn’t overly go against Nationals views. But then when they did they went down in flames. I was a teenager when it happened and I remember the outrage like it was yesterday.

*I grew up in Oakeshott’s electorate of Lyne

The first time I ever voted was for the Nationals (Leslie Williams, now a Liberal) in Port Macquarie at the 2015 state election.

@not necessarily since those divisions are on thin or razor thin margins and most will receive favourable redistributions so i wouldnt see it as 256 : 1 while richmond looks safe on paper on 2pp it wouldnt take much for labor to be knocked out of the 2pp by the greens so if the greens get a few votes here and there and the nats recover with a less controversial candidate or the libs put up someone labor would easily fall out of the 2pp

@np i grew up in forrest and until recently have always voted in indi. i wasnt overly thrilled by sophie mirabella but i reluctantly voted for her. after she got kicked out i have always weighed up the 2 coalition candidates but the libs seem to have always been the better choice

Np: tony Windsor was a candidate for Nat pre-election some thing happened that even though he had the support of most nat branches he still lost on a technicality.. so he stood as an independent and won later he stood for the federal seat of New England after they changed member think it was the second election after Sinclair retired

My map of comparisons between the Republic and Voice referendums will be finished tomorrow.

Should I do a partisan voting index like I did for Queensland a few months ago but for federal seats?

Anyway, something I’ve been wondering more and more is will the major parties start to see libertarian factions arise that support things like recreational cannabis?

Now, if you ask me on cannabis, I do support it medicinally but not recreationally (well that’s the summary). I’m not afraid to admit it, I’ve smoked weed before but I’m personally softly against legalising recreational marijuana (I’m on the fence when it comes to small amounts), but I wouldn’t bother campaigning for or against it. My main concern would be the potential for substance abuse in the Indigenous population and in rural areas where alcohol abuse is more prevalent than in cities and regional centres.

The Greens, the Libertarian Party (formerly the Liberal Democrats), the Legalise Cannabis Party and the Reason Party all support legalising recreational marijuana. I know some in Labor support this too, such as many in ACT Labor since the ACT’s Labor-Greens coalition government legalised it in 2020. Another prominent supporter is NSW Labor MLC Rose Jackson.

In the US, the Democrats support legalising it, and many libertarian Republicans from across the board (moderates and conservatives) also support legalising it. The Libertarian Party, the Green Party and RFK Jr. also support legalising it.

In New Zealand, the Greens support it as do many Labour members, while National and some of Labour oppose it. ACT is mixed since it is a libertarian but also classical liberal party.

Any thoughts?

Every factual analysis of drug harm I’ve ever seen from experts suggests that marijuana is less harmful than alcohol is, both to the individual and to society. So it’s absurd to keep it banned while alcohol remains free to be used and abused. And banning the substance doesn’t actually stop it from being used as Nether Portal’s experience shows, it just criminalises the users.

Psychological research also suggests that addiction is a symptom of underlying mental health issues and a lack of fulfilling social connection (see the work of Stanton Peele, the book Chasing the Scream by Johann Hari, and others), and these are often exacerbated by poverty. Simply banning substances without addressing the social, mental and economic problems that abound in communities with high rates of addiction doesn’t change anything. People are still depressed, isolated and/or impoverished and will simply find some other mood-altering substance in an effort to escape.

So I’m in favour of legalising marijuana, but the bigger issue is poor mental health, and both should be addressed. My concern with libertarian types is that I suspect they desire legalisation without wanting to devote more resources to mental health support, because they want individual freedom without societal responsibility.

@Wilson I agree there needs to be support to mental health as a major priority.

Anyway, do you think that pro-marijuana factions could emerge in the major parties like they have in the US and to a lesser extent New Zealand?

@Wilson, I am deeply sceptical of a lot of the research around Marijuana for a number of reasons. To start with, this is very difficult research to do properly as it is almost entirely based on self reporting. Secondly, would anyone be surprised if there was a significant bias in those doing the research? In the university sector, ‘Pot good, Alcohol meh to bad’ would be the default, surely? There is also a fairly substantial amount of research suggesting moderate consumption of alcohol (say a glass or two of red wine a night) is correlated with a number of positive health outcomes. Lastly, a lot of recent alcohol research conflates moderate consumption with alcoholism basically. There is also a lot of anecdotal evidence that since legalisation there has been a significant uptick in psychosis in places like Colorado after legalisation. Again only correlation but it does fit with what we previously know (particularly about newer strains having

Without research showing similar health benefits for Marijuana I am therefore not sure how good the research is. I know there is a big push within the public health lobby against alcohol and there is a definite move to make the research fit that push.

In case you are wondering, yes, I do think there is a huge problem in the Uni sector with a lot of research (look up the replicability crisis) and no, I am not against Marijuana legalisation, as long as all of the rules around tobacco also apply.

@ Nether Portal
This is just my personal opinion. I am in favour of decriminalizing Marijuana in small amount but oppose full legalisation. I am ok if people grow one or two plants in their house and share it with close friends/family who use it. Why i support decriminalization is because i dont want people going through the criminal justice system or getting records for a non-violent act. Also indigenous people are often more likely to get a criminal record for cannabis possesion rather than a private school kid on the North Shore who may actually use it as much as someone who grews up in a Public Housing in Redfern . This leads to more interactions with the police and increases the chance of deaths in custody etc. I have supported safe injecting rooms in Kings Cross and Richmond (Vic) because i want to reduce the chance of an overdose, stop people injecting in Public Toilets and have a place where they can seek help. However, Legalisation is a step to far because it may lead to normalisation. I think parts of Liberal party like James Paterson, Tim Wilson etc will be open to legalisation but not the religious wing. Likewise, i think parts of Labor will be reluctant especially fear losing CALD votes. If there was ever a public vote i think the SSM vote will align with how each electorate will vote and Blaxland would have the highest No vote and Melbourne will have the highest Yes vote.

with all the recent retriement announcements as well as the labor party starting selecting candidates you cant tell me they are gonna wait until may next year. expect them to annonuce an election date after the qld election

December 7 I’m hearing john

thats where my money is too trump24

When does the redistribution come into effect? At the Determination or Gazettal? And what is time difference between them? A December 7 election would be cutting it mighty fine considering last date for writs would 4 November.

the redistributions come into effect between late september and mid october.

I actually think Dutton will win the election
I predict the Libs will win 72 seats and ALP will finish with 65 seats

@Nimalan I’m not sure how well it would do in rural areas either. I agree that some Liberals would be open to it too. John Pesutto is against legalisation (or at least full legalisation) but has still conceded that too many people are being caught up in the justice system for it.

I reckon that Victoria will be the next state to legalise it (under Labor with the support of the Greens), and I think that in the future a Labour-Green government in New Zealand would legalise it too.

@Trump 24 what seats do you think he’ll gain?

@NP, there was a referendum to legalise Cannabis on the same time as the 2020 NZ election and narrowed failed (51% No). During the campaign Jacinda Ardern was silent (but later admitted to voted Yes), Labour Party was neutral and National were oppose (at least on caucus level). There was also a euthanasia referendum in the same day which passed at 66% Yes.
Not really sure if legalising recreational cannibais on state level will be possible though.

@trump im caustiously optimistic as well but tbh given the problems of minority govt and the fact the senate would be hard to work iwth at best and hostile at worst i think the bet option this time around is let labor have minority govt then tear them down in 2028 like abbott did in 2013. in order to win govt the libs will need a few of those teal seats as if they are still there they will prop up labor.

atm im predicting labor to be on 68-70 and the coalition to be on 68-70 as well.

in the new wa seat of bullwinkle a poll of 800 respondents in the electorate showing the Nationals polling well clear of the Liberals, although the more remarkable fact of the poll is that it has Labor leading 52-48, suggesting next to no swing from 2022. The primary votes quoted are Labor 22%, Nationals 20%, Liberal 12%, Greens 10% and independents 10%, with 23% undecided.

@Redistributed
My understanding is that the Determination is when they publish the Gazette notice. Those dates are:
– WA: 24th September
– NSW: 10th October
– VIC: 17th October

However I believe the Commission needs to finalise their deliberations for VIC/WA by 10th September and NSW by 24th September and publish their amendments as soon as possible, so there will be a few weeks for parties to strategise before the boundaries take effect.

I’ve always assumed Albo will try to hang on for as long as possible, but an election on December 7th will be pretty interesting viewing in the wake of the Queensland and US elections.

I did think it curious that Linda Burney gave her farewell speech the other day.

Based on 2010 when they were last in govt they picked people about 4 months out. In regards to this time when the pm is keeping the date up his sleeve it’s obvious he’s preparing for an early election. Youdont pick candidates 9 months out unless you have no idea when the election is gonna get held but the pm knows when he’s gonna call it he’s just trying to make it look like he hasn’t decided. If he holds on until may he runs the risk of losing govt Al together atm he will win in minority but if he drags it out it could get worse. Scomo made the decision because he knew he was going down. Had he went in Nov 2021 he still would of lost but not asbad he would of kept some teal seats and
Possibly restricted Labor to minority

The seats I think Dutton will win are:

Blair
Bennalong
Reid
Lilly
Lyons
Aston
Tangey
Lingiari
Eden-Manero
Gilmore
Patterson
Hunter
Curtain
Mackella
Kooyong
There’s probably a few I’ve forgotten as well

@Trump 24 of those, I think:

* Likely gains: Bennelong (the redistribution helps), Blair, Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons, Paterson
* Possible gains: Aston, Curtin, Eden-Monaro, Kooyong, Mackellar, Robertson, Tangney
* Unlikely gains: Hunter (the redistribution will strengthen Hunter for Labor and Paterson for the Liberals) Lilley, Reid

I added Robertson since you missed it, and if the Coalition wins government they’ll likely win it since it’s a classic bellwether seat. In Robertson as we can see from state results the Liberals do very well in the eastern and northeastern suburbs of Robertson (Terrigal, Erina, Avoca Beach, Copacabana, etc, all either affluent or middle-class suburbs near the beach in the state seat of Terrigal which is a Liberal seat, plus East Gosford which is split between Gosford and Terrigal) and in the western part (Peats Ridge, Somersby, etc, all semi-rural suburbs in the state seat of Gosford which is a Labor seat but is usually competitive) while Labor does well in Woy Woy since it’s working-class and a lower socioeconomic area (Woy Woy is also in Gosford). The competitive part of Robertson (and Gosford o the state level) is Gosford itself and the surrounding suburbs (Kariong, Narara, Wyoming, etc).

@NP, Aston should be Lib likely gain as ALP gained only due to lower turnout, Libs poor choice and candidate and was only Albanese honeymoon period whereas Kooyong should be unlikely gain given Kooyong is Teal friendlier than Mackellar (higher support in The Voice Referendum)