2025 Australian federal election

The map is out!

His is a map of each seat, but with flag emojis for each seat’s main language other than English. It is also shaded by what percentage of the population speaks the language, with 2% intervals (i.e the lightest blue is under 2% while the darkest blue is over 10%).

Link: https://jmp.sh/aGoygXIQ

Since the SVG version won’t show the flags for some reason, here’s a screenshot of what it would’ve looked like: https://jmp.sh/nVqyXsyp

At Nether Portal
Great Map, is it possible for you to include this info in a Table as well. Like you did for the booth results that way we can see the Top 10 and bottom 10 for the country?

https://jumpshare.com/v/Cd3XNQrqtFsVcBfKsgzN

Notes:

* All seats with the Indian flag are seats where Punjabi is the most spoken language other than English, since there is no Punjabi flag emoji and there are no seats where Hindi is the most spoken language other than English.
* The most common language other than English in Groom is Kurdish, but since the flag of Kurdistan is not on the Apple Emoji keyboard, I used the Iraqi flag instead.
* I am aware that Saudi Arabia is certainly not the only country where Arabic is spoken, and I know that Egypt is the most populous Arabic-speaking country. However, the flags are meant to link with the name of the country and the language, not necessarily the country with the most speakers of that language (otherwise English would have a US flag, Spanish would have a Mexican flag, Portuguese would have a Brazilian flag, etc).
* All seats with the South African flag are seats where Afrikaans is the most spoken language other than English, as the only one of South Africa’s 11 official languages to even make the top five most spoken languages in a seat was English.
* Indigenous languages are shaded individually, i.e by the percentage of the population that speaks the most spoken single language or dialect. Otherwise Lingiari would be much darker given that, fortunately, most Aboriginal languages in the Northern Territory are still alive, i.e they still have living native speakers.

And most of all, to understand this map well, you should know your flags.

Indigenous languages:
* Durack: Kriol
* Grey: Pitjantjatjara
* Kennedy: “Cape York languages, nec”
* Leichhardt: Torres Strait Creole (Yumplatok)
* Lingiari: Kriol

@Nimalan sure I can do that.

@ Nether Portal, Much appreciated Look forward to your table 🙂

I’ve done all but NSW and Victoria so far and I’ve just realised that the ABS counts “Tagalog” and “Filipino” responses as separate languages even though the word “Filipino” in linguistics either refers to the standard formal variety of Tagalog (the one used by the government, note that while the Philippines has multiple regional indigenous languages (e.g Cebuano and Ilocano) the two official languages are English and Tagalog) or is just used as a synonym of Tagalog. So a couple more seats would have Filipino/Tagalog as their most spoken language other than English, since seats with high Tagalog-speaking populations usually seem to also have high Filipino-speaking populations.

Thats interesting @NP. If they are merged as one language it may impact the ranking. Another example is Persian, Dari and Hazarghi counted as separate languages. Although people who would choose Persian in the Census would be Iranian while those who choose Dari and Hazarghi would be Afghan. The issue is that Afghan and Iranians live in different areas are quite different in SES terms. For examples Iranians live in Menzies, Mitchell, Berowra, Tangney and Centenary suburbs in QLD while Afghans live in Bruce, Holt, Western Sydney, Northern Adelaide

Np can we get a table of age of mps in descending order?

@John I can do that but probably not tonight.

@Nimalan yes I noticed that too with Persian/Farsi. The AEC seems to count dialects separately since Yolŋu (an Aboriginal language of Arnhem Land, I think it’s the most spoken non-creolised Indigenous language in Australia) is not counted as a language by the ABS (though “Yolŋu languages, nfd” is) but instead the separate dialects are. The main Yolŋu dialect is Djambarrpuyŋu. Maybe the ABS goes off ISO language codes?

They also refer to the Sinhala language of Sri Lanka as “Sinhalese”, they spell Hazaragi as “Hazaraghi” (both spellings are correct but Wikipedia uses the former). Hindi and Urdu are basically the same language but are counted differently too but in saying that they do use different writing systems and India and Pakistan are enemies of each other so they do like to separate their languages from each other (in India the Punjabi language is written in an Indic script called Gurmukhi while in Pakistan it’s written in an Arabic script called Shahmukhi).

Here’s the table: https://jmp.sh/85YB5SOj

It shows the top five languages in each seat other than English. It seems that Mandarin Chinese makes the top five in almost every seat (no surprise since it’s the second-most spoken language in Australia after English) but Arabic less commonly makes the top five (despite being the third-most spoken language in Australia after English and Mandarin).

@Nimalan The Greens, in particular Aiv Puglielli have been campaigning strongly in the Chinese community in the area recently, focusing on issues like anti-Asian hate, AUKUS and weirdly enough the success of Chinese athletes in the Olympics, so that could be reflected in the increasingly strong Greens results in Box Hill. Box Hill is also becoming Melbourne’s 2nd CBD so won’t be surprised if results will increasingly approach what we see in the city, Southbank and Docklands.

@ Nether Portal
Fantastic, If you get a chance some time taking it to the next level, would be to do a table by language for the Top 10 minority languages in Australia and the Top 10 seats for those languages for example Greek.. For example while Greek is the most common minority language in Barker it is only spoken by 0.5% while Menzies has way more at 4.5% but it is only the third most common language after English because high number of Chinese language speakers. Maranoa will certainly not be in the top 10 seats by Filipino speakers and suburban seats will have way more if it does not come in the Top 5 in those seats.

@ Dan M
Interesting, i certainly believe Greens can make inroads into Australian-Born Chinese but if they are doing that among First generation that is certainly an achievement.

@Nimalan thanks for the feedback. I can try and do that for the main languages but it will be harder to do a top 10 for say Aramaic or Tongan which are mid-tier common languages in Australia.

@ np
Agree I reckon just do for Mandarin, Arabic, Vietnamese, Punjabi, Greek and Italian only otherwise too many languages.

A couple of interesting trends:

1. The Sunshine Coast has a lot of Germans.
2. Wollongong has a lot of Macedonians. I already knew this though because there’s a local soccer club down there called Wollongong United who were originally called Wollongong Macedonia and they play at Macedonia Park.
3. Some major immigrant languages such as Chinese, Italian, Tagalog, Punjabi and German are quite widely spoken, while others like Arabic, Vietnamese, Korean, Spanish and Japanese are more restricted to certain areas.
4. The seat with the highest non-English speaking populations outside the capital cities is Lingiari in the Northern Territory, followed by Moncrieff and Fadden on the Gold Coast.
5. Over 4% of Lingiari residents speak an Aboriginal English-based creole language called Kriol. Kriol is a mix between Aboriginal English and local Indigenous languages plus some influences from the Melanesian creoles (Tok Pisin of PNG, Bislama of Vanuatu, Pijin of the Solomon Islands and Torres Strait Creole (Yumplatok) of the Torres Strait Islands, e.g “biganini” = “child”, from Melanesian “pikinini”, ultimately from Portuguese “pequena/pequeno” = “small”).
6. Kriol is also the most spoken language in Durack in WA.
7. All of the top five most-spoken non-English languages in Lingiari were Aboriginal languages.
8. Labor and Liberal seats were by far more multilingual than Nationals, Greens and independent seats.
9. In almost every seat Mandarin alone makes the top five and I think the combined Chinese total (Mandarin + Cantonese + other varieties = Chinese) makes the top five in every single seat.
10. Surprisingly Punjabi is more spoken than Italian is in Farrer. This is a surprise because Farrer takes in a city called Griffith which notably has a large Italian community. Griffith even had its own Italian mafia at one point!

@Nimalan yeah I’ll see what I can do. I can probably do Tagalog too by combining Filipino.

@Nether Portal
10. “At one point!” cough cough.

Question for @NP, given you classfied Hazaragi as Iranian in the seat of Bruce which on your assumption is due to being a dialect of Persian (although ABS classified as different languages), how would you classify Hindi and Urdu given they are both mostly mutually intelligible with same origin but only different scripts?

@Marh I would say Hindi and Urdu are the same. Hazaragi is a Persian dialect but I’ve put it separately for the sake of being exact from what the AEC says.

We should get another roybmorgan poll in the coming days from what I can tell the do them every week. So we are due for one from the 29th July to 4th august

Just in time for the election I mean just when you think they couldn’t go any lower

https://www.facebook.com/share/qhiYtcdFbCuhzF1V/

2 large office buildings in Box Hill do not make it a second CBD. There would be a lot more office space and workers in Richmond or Hawthorn than Box Hill.

@ NP
Maybe Afghan flag would better to represent Hazargi or Dari than Iranian flag

@John I don’t understand your reasoning. Are they meant to do nothing? Or just tell nobody?

@nq how do we know there’s a threat? Details please

@John This is exactly the same level the terror threat was at from 2014 to 2022.

@Nimalan yeah I just thought that.

@John yeah it’s not a good look for Albo to say the very least.

@Scart correct but it’s not a good look for Albo since he’s already weak on border security and immigration-related issues.

I don’t understand why ASIO rated us that high for so long. I will say this with a straight face: terrorism is a very minor thing in Australia. We are not Syria or Iraq or Afghanistan or Somalia or whatever where terrorism is everywhere.

@Nether Portal Agreed. The last time it was actually raised was in 2014 when ISIS were growing

He’s weak if he does something.
He’s weak if he does nothing.
Make your minds up.

@ NP
I am actually surprised no indigenous languages came up in the Top 5 in Maranoa or Parkes like it did in many other Outback seats.

@Nimalan Maranoa and Parkes are very white electorates covering large portions of outback and rural Queensland and NSW respectively. While they have a lot of Indigenous people not many still speak their languages unfortunately.

In the other outback electorates however, they have several thriving Indigenous languages that are so commonly spoken some even have Bible translations in them (though the only complete Aboriginal Bible translations is the Kriol Bible, which was completed in 2019).

It’s similar in Lyne where I grew up there’s a lot of Aboriginal people in towns there like Taree and Kempsey (both have very high Aboriginal populations, about 15-20% each) but they all speak English (yes they have their own slang but they still speak English).

@NP, there is also a large Indian Community in Griffith (9%) plus quite a of Punjab immigrants settle in Regional Areas recently due to a special Regional Visa program in return for easier pathway to immigrate

@ NP Agree it is unfortunate that languages have been lost some are being revived though. It will be interesting to do a table from Most Indigenous electorate-Lingiari and i think Goldstein has the lowest %. Also interesting that Regional electorates have smaller languages represented in Top 5 like Kurdish, Karen and Chink Haka (Casey).

Put it this way: according to Wikipedia, there are 46 Aboriginal languages with over 100 native speakers today (not including Kriol which is a creolised language but it has over 20,000 native speakers). This does not include Torres Strait Islander languages.

Of those, 19 are spoken in the Northern Territory and 17 are spoken in Western Australia. On the other hand, Queensland has five, South Australia has four and NSW has three. There are no Aboriginal languages in Victoria, Tasmania or the ACT that are still alive today (i.e none of them have native speakers, only people who learnt the language as a second or third language).

According to Wikipedia, at the time of the statistics, of the approximately 43,600 speakers of those 46 languages, approximately 28,100 of them, or 64.5%, live in the NT. Approximately 8,000 live in WA, 3,900 in SA, 1,800 in Queensland and just 600 in NSW.

Approximately 61% of Territorian Aboriginals speak an Aboriginal language at home. As of the 2021 census, 15.5% of all Territorians speak an Indigenous language at home.

@Marh yes that’s true and in Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie there is a rapidly growing Indian community. By the next Census I think Punjabi will be the most spoken language in Cowper and Lyne.

@Nimalan yes it is interesting to see that regional areas have a higher amount of speakers of rarer languages per capita. I’m surprised that Thai wasn’t one of the most spoken languages in Cowper. In Port Macquarie there are heaps of Chinese, Indian, Thai and Vietnamese places.

I can do a table and map for Indigenous people too later on. I know city electorates (bar Lindsay) have quite low Aboriginal populations.

Interestingly I’ve noticed that the whiter areas have more Aboriginal people than the more ethnic areas. I think it’s because back in the day a lot of Aboriginal people lived in “missions” (now this term has been used (at least in rural areas to refer to any town, suburb, neighbourhood or street with a high amount of Aboriginal people in housing commission though it’s phasing out of usage except when referring to actual missions). Missions were often in rural areas, for example Purfleet is a suburb of Taree that used to have a mission and today it’s mostly Aboriginal housing commission.

Sometimes govts want to distract you from their incompetence or make people afraid so they can getvotes

The window for r lection is getting narrower in my opinion there are about 4 possible dates left

do the states have data on their deviation from enrollment like the aec does federally?

im hearing decemeber 7th as a possible election date

My yellow cake bet still stands 🙂

@Nq dw i havent forgot

Yellow cake?
There will not be an early election.. it will be approx May 2025

@mick hes pledged to eat/consume some of dutton yellow cake uranium if the election is held in 2024. i wouldt be so sure on that because the loger albo waits the wrst it will get. im putting my money on a 2024 election. i said earlier it would be the 7th of december and from what i hearing thats a date thats being touted

I never said uranium, I said yellow cake.

Pineapple cake specifically, given I’m a Queenslander.

@NQ il have to check that i took a photo for purposes of enforcing the bet

@NQ View he’s right you did say you’d eat the yellow cake that goes in nuclear power plants.

Found the comment: https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2025/comment-page-11#comment-811735

“If there is an election before 31 December, I’ll eat some of the yellow cake needed for Dutton’s power stations.”