2025 Australian federal election

That is why I am sick of the popular myth that Universities causes people to hold “left-wing”views. I can say most people joining socialist groups for example already holds socialist views before starting university. As I person who studied STEM, I always talk my friends about the latest innovation trends and zilch on politics.

This is known as the “correlation doesn’t equal causation theory”, where for example higher support for the Voice among the highly educated is only a correlation not a causation.

Also whilst i did not Study STEM at University i studied commerce/economics at Uni and have more Pro-Business/free market views my cultural or religious views did not change after i went University and those were shaped by ethnic upbringing and the family i was raised in.

When I catch up with my software engineering friends, we invariably end up talking about minimising taxes, the stock market, buying property, and starting a business. Hardly conversation topics you’d expect from a bunch of leftists!

Also, there are three places I’ve met Trump supporters – the internet (and they are all from the US), a church I attended briefly that was way too fundamentalist for my liking, and university.

@Nicholas As someone currently in university, the media viewpoint of “uni = left-wing” probably has to do with the fact that the minority (I.e. pro-Palestine protest) tend to be the loudest and thus get the most attention.

Yeah I was never left-leaning in Uni either. And I went to Newcastle Uni.

It is one of countless examples of the phenomenon where the loudest subsection of a group does not represent the group as a whole.

In the UK we saw that Reform actually appealed to many younger voters, especially younger men. Was this a factor of a real right-wing tide among some conservative young people (mostly young men)?

I think they’ve started to appeal to younger bases. Nigel Farage is well known in internet circles due to the Nigel Farage memes (there’s a website called Cameo that he is on and people can pay him to say virtually anything so he’s been pranked into saying happy birthday to “Hugh Janus” and has made several references to the Big Chungus meme). Pauline Hanson is an iconic figure in Australian society and she has her own cartoon series that I would say mostly younger viewers watch.

In Australia we haven’t yet seen such a trend but I’ll note that, for example, the Innes Lake North booth, located at Charles Sturt University in the Port Macquarie suburb of Lake Innes, had a 9.7% primary vote for One Nation, compared to 8.1% across Cowper. Though in saying that Lake Innes is also a residential suburb and there is a shopping village with a Coles next to the uni and it is a conservative city so I’d say a lot of it is from non-students.

Primary votes at Innes Lake North in 2022:
* Nationals: 36.5% (–8.5%)
* Independent: 28.7% (+28.7%)
* Labor: 12.2% (+1.0%)
* One Nation: 9.2% (+9.2%)
* Greens: 5.5% (–0.6%)
* Liberal Democrats: 5.3% (+5.3%)
* UAP: 2.5% (–0.2%)

TCP:
* Nationals: 50.9% (–4.5%)
* Independent: 49.1% (+49.1%)

@Nether Portal I would imagine that most young Reform voters (especially men) probably aren’t in uni.

Though based on those results, they absolutely could supersede the Tories and become the UK’s main right wing force. Tories were the 5th most popular party amongst 18-24 year old Britons (behind Labour, Reform, Lib Dems and Greens).

Very interesting announcement, but per Preselection Updates, lawyer Stephanie Hunt has been chose as the Liberal Party candidate for MELBOURNE. Interesting discovery, and a seat not even remotely winnable.

What I think is interesting with the Melbourne announcement is just how proactive the Victorian Liberals have been in preselecting candidates. For some of these frankly unwinnable safe seats like Melbourne or Calwell etc. you’d expect them to announce their candidates a few months out from the election, not almost a year out. They’ve also basically had a candidate for every target seat for several months now (Dunkley excepted).

In the recent French Election, 18-24 have moved away from major parties instead embracing mostly populist parties either the left-wing LFI or far-right Le Pen’s National Rally

@James, not trying to be rude, but what is “interesting” about that announcement?

@Scart I wonder why the Tories are behind Reform among young voters.

@GPPS the fact that they’re doing heaps of announcements in unwinnable Melbourne seats like Calwell and Melbourne so early put from the election. The only part of the seat of Melbourne where the Liberals frequently outpoll Labor and have previously done well in is Docklands.

The other such part of Melbourne is East Melbourne, which I think in 2022 had the highest Liberal primary in the electorate at 25% after it more than halved in Docklands to just 16%. Bandt had 48% of the primary vote in Docklands. Quite remarkable.

@GPPS – I meant ‘interesting’ as Melbourne is a seat the Liberals know they cannot win, yet they have chosen a candidate. There are other winnable seats like Lingiari and Paterson across Australia where the Liberals can certainly win (and I think will win), yet they have already chosen a candidate in Melbourne, a seat where the demographics are very hostile, and the Liberals will certainly never win anyway. Exactly what Nether Portal said.

Here’s the map of seats the Coalition has fielded candidates in: https://jmp.sh/1hblGk0m

Key:
* Blue: Liberal candidate preselected
* Light blue: held by the Liberal Party but no candidate preselected
* Green: Nationals candidate preselected
* Light green: held by the National Party but no candidate preselected
* Purple: Liberal and National candidates preseletced (Bendigo)

I’ll be making maps for Labor and the Greens too, plus a map for others.

So, interestingly it seems that the Liberal Party hasn’t really preselected in many key seats yet. But they have, however, preselected a lot in Victoria and Tasmania, and have made several in South Australia too, but Queensland is the state they’ve barely touched.

The Liberals have preselected candidates for all but two seats in Melbourne’s Eastern Suburbs (they still don’t have candidates for Dunkley, a key seat, and Hotham, a safe Labor seat). They’ve also got candidates for three of the five Tasmanian seats. Well-known moderate and popular MP Bridget Archer will be recontesting Bass, though Gavin Pearce will not be recontesting Braddon. The party has preselected Josh Garvin in Franklin and Susie Bower in Lyons, with no candidate announced yet in Braddon or Clark.

List of seats with Liberal candidates:

* NSW: Bennelong, Bradfield, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Farrer, Gilmore, Lindsay, Mitchell, North Sydney, Parramatta, Wentworth, Werriwa
* Queensland: Dickson, McPherson, Ryan
* SA: Adelaide, Barker, Boothby, Makin
* Tasmania: Bass, Franklin, Lyons
* Victoria: Aston, Ballarat, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Chisholm, Corangamite, Goldstein, Higgins, Holt, Indi, Isaacs, Kooyong, Macnamara, McEwen, Melbourne, Monash
* WA: Canning, Curtin, Durack, Forrest, Moore, O’Connor, Tangney

List of seats with Nationals candidates:

* NSW: Calare
* Victoria: Bendigo

Labor: https://jmp.sh/wInoRAOH

So I think I’m starting to see a pattern here. The Coalition are preselecting lots in Victoria, Labor is preselecting lots in Queensland. Why? Because the Coalition’s weakest state is Victoria (the ACT is a territory) and Labor’s weakest state is Queensland, plus if Labor is trying to remain a major party in Queensland, i.e not become a third party and have the Greens beat them in terms of seat totals).

For the Labor map, red is seats they’ve fielded candidates and light red is seats with sitting Labor members but no officially endorsed candidates yet.

Greens map: https://jmp.sh/cU5dXpJM

@Nether Portal Also seems like polls around the world indicate that mid-to-younger Gen Z (those born around 2002 or later, or those who came of voting age during or after the pandemic) are at least a little bit more conservative on average than younger Gen Y/older Gen Z, who tend to be the most progressive groups within the Anglosphere and the Western world more broadly at the moment. This seems to be more pronounced amongst men. I did see a poll of 16-17 year olds in the UK (who would’ve been able to vote if Starmer was already PM) where Reform got 23% (second only to Labour) and got 35% amongst 16-17 year old boys, which put them tied with Labour.

Also, I’m pretty sure Nigel is at least *somewhat* aware of the various Gen Z memes that people get him to say on Cameo.

@Scart interesting. Is it different for women or is it the same?

@Nether Portal very different. Amongst 16-17 year old girls, Labour and the Greens got 75% of the vote between them.

I’m at a university in Sydney studying Urban Planning with a cohort born 2002 and 2003. Urban Planning is an inherently political degree, due to the fact that the planning field is so heavily influenced by politics. Amongst that cohort, there certainly isn’t any massive left lean. A plurality of people would definitely identify as left of centre, but there is also a large grouping of people who are Liberal supporters.

More broadly, I genuinely think most people at University are disinterested in politics in the same sense that most of the broader population is disinterested in politics. There is a higher number of politically engaged people at University, and those people do skew to the left, but certainly not in the way that some people make out. Yes Socialist Alternative and Labor are the only two groups involved in stupol, but the conservative club still has strong membership.

People my age seem to be most engaged with politics when it meets them where they are. If the far right is the most engaging group, which for young white boys over the past decade it has been, then they are going to perform relatively well compared to legacy parties that make little to no effort engaging Gen Z. I have friends in Australia with no real political interest who overnight love Kamala Harris and wish they could vote for her because her campaign has exploded in all the right ways to target Gen Z across social media. If an Australian party was able to recreate that (and I doubt it’s possible with our current set of hapless leaders) then you’d see a race for the Gen Z vote at the next election.

Np Nathan Conroy is most likely gonna run again in dunkley

@John
Nathan Conroy gave a prolonged interview on/or about July 18 on ABC774 Melbourne. Said he is not going to run in Dunkley at the next election. If he waits a cycle, he will likely regain all of Mt Eliza back into Dunkley (assuming the current redistribution proposal, shifting Mt Eliza to Flinders comes into force).
I’d reckon that Nathan can have the slot anytime that it suits him, into the future, after a strong showing at the Dunkley by-election.
If he sits out the next Federal election, he would also be in demand to run for a tilt at Frankston District in 2026 with Dunkley as a backup in ?2027/2028.

@Scart interesting. In rural areas it seems that the Coalition is popular among all age groups (from what I observed growing up and going back there).

Why are Gen Z girls so left-wing? Given that half the population is female and the other half is male that should be a concern for the future of conservatism. Though women are more progressive than men.

@Conor I’m a UQ uni student and you are right about young people engaging with politics when it meets them where they are. Interestingly, Steven Miles seems to have captured a fair amount of positive Gen Z attention. Otherwise apolitical/cynical friends and classmates have brough him up I’ve noticed and usually says something about wishing he was PM. He makes good use of instagram in a trendy but genuine way that doesn’t come across as cringy, usually the comments on there have quit a bit of positive Gen Z attention. Him being quite buff plays quite well to the gym crowd that in the US you would usually see pulled more towards the right.

@The Banana Republic lol Steven Miles is about to lose in a landslide, and it’s not because of “old bogan rednecks”.

@Nether Portal Oh he absolutely is with huge swings across all demographics, I was just sharing an example of a politician seemingly using social media in a well targeted positive way. The only other time I have heard peers talking about Australian politics unprompted was the Greens free uni policy in 2022 federal.

heres a ongoing list of candidates for the next election for anyone interested
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1boH2Unx9x0Wi_EGTwWYAgJcY8SMrF-SUaXRb5Aav9KE/edit?gid=0#gid=0

its been reported the greens will target Lilley and Moreton at the next election

On the left wing student thing, while I agree some of this is overblown, and I don’t think the young are quite as left wing as the polls make out, I do think there is a core of students who go to Uni without any idea of what they want to do, end up in an arts/humanities course that is pretty infused with left wing politics masquerading as academia, and end up in media (especially publishing for some reason) and Government and make up the activist base of the Greens/Labor. However, we know this group leans heavily Green so there isn’t much to think about, it is a known known. What interests me more is the idea that young men are moving right. While I am also suspicious of just how prevalent this is (Reform did end up doing pretty poorly with the young), if it is true what implications does it have for outer suburban (as I assume this is not a cohort flowing into the urban core) seats at the upcoming, and indeed future elections?

@Nether Portal “Victorian Liberals: has some populists and has had some problems before (e.g Moira Deeming) but it seems that the election of a moderate leader in John Pesutto has fixed a lot of that.”

I don’t think John Pesutto has fixed the issues of infighting and infiltration of the religious right in the Victorian Liberal Party. The pro-Deeming conservative faction of the Victorian Liberal Party is always finding opportunities to depose Pesutto as the leader. John Pesutto himself has become more conservative and has lost his moderate voice. For example, He opposes the Voice and reversed the Coalition’s bipartisan support for treaty. I would argue that the Victorian Liberals are also shifting to the right while also dragging self-proclaimed moderate John Pesutto to the right.

“While Perrottet was socially conservative but not really that much”: Despite expressing some conservative views before becoming Premier, after becoming Premier he started to act like a moderate. He adopted ambitious climate and renewable energy policies, supporting the Voice, helping preselecting more female Liberal candidates and even put forward bold plans for cashless gaming. He worked well with many people from the opposite side of the politics, including former Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. He also has a good relationship with Chris Minns. Arguably NSW Liberal moderates that supported Perrottet to become Premier had also pushed him to the centre.

I do agree that the federal Liberal Party is much more right wing than all, if not most of their state and territory counterparts. That’s why they will never win back any seats they have lost to the teals unless they somehow manage to find a way to move back to the centre.

@Joseph At the end of the day, 55% of Victorians opposed the voice as well. Therefore, opposing the voice was the centrist thing to do. Pesutto did give MPs a conscience vote, which is also the right thing to do. Plus given that Victoria’s treaty could well include tax breaks for indigenous people, then I don’t think opposing that makes some an ultra-hard rightist like Moira Deeming and Co. Pesutto (along with many other state Liberal leaders) often get strongly criticised by the bozos at Sky as well.

@Scart
I personally think Pesutto has moved rightwards from Matt Guy as the party has forced him to. Unlike the voice (required a referendum) a treaty will not require as much communication bandwidth it does not require Jacinta Allan to campaign around the state wearing a Pro-Treaty hoodie like Albo had to. Irrespective if you agree with it or not. Secondly, much of the Liberal heartland voted for the Voice so in the seats of Hawthorn and Kew so they maybe Teal challenges as well. Secondly, opposing the residential gas rollout also gives ammunition for the Teals. The other thing is Pesutto has been spending a lot of time in the seat of Greenvale which is a Sky After Dark favourite electorate which contains the suburb of Meadow Heights. Pesutto has not spent as much time in the sandbelt, eastern suburbs etc. Sky after Dark dreams of the day that the Liberals will win St Albans and Greenvale while losing Kew, Hawthorn, Brighton and Sandringham.

*gas phaseout

@Nimalan Hardly anyone, even in Hawthorn or Kew is going to cast their vote in 2026 based on a decision that Pesutto made 3 years prior on a failed referendum, and anyone that is is very likely not voting Liberal anyway. I also don’t think he’s moved the party to right of Guy, he’s not openly opposed to Vax mandates, or giving preferences to violent cooker parties, and he had to move heaven and earth to get rid of Deeming (which is the moderate, centrist thing to do).

@Scart
Fair points and i respect them. Just a few points.
1. The Liberals decision to preference violent Cooker parties was a real turn off for me last time as a Victorian. As a person of colour i do not want to see violent cookers in parliament. However, most of these parties dont really exist now so it just be a mute point.
2. However, i do concede in the Mulgrave by election the first time there was a Lib v ALP contest, Pesutto did not implement a Put Labor Last strategy which i appreciated and actually put Labor ahead of the Greens.
3. Do you feel time would be better spent in Carrum, Frankston and Box Hill rather than Greenvale and do you feel the former seats are more winnable than the latter?

This is definitely one of the things I have been noticing. A lot of what is considered ‘moderate’ amongst a lot of the political/media class is actually really radical, and the centre of the public mood is significantly to the right (although I hate right/left as it means nothing anymore). A good example is immigration, where when polled we consistently find the plurality position is less immigration, but that view is considered ‘far right’ amongst the political/media class. I use immigration as that seems to be the hook that most ‘right wing’ populist movements use as their initial hook, and I fear if the Libs take the advice o some on here, that is to shift towards the Teal seat to take those back, an enormous space will open up for a populist right leader/party to emerge.

I would not say less immigration is a far right thing unless it is based on selecting people based on their race/religion/ethnicity etc . We already have Pauline Hanson and one Nation who want Net Zero Immigration and people are free to vote for them. When people think they loose controls of their borders it does lead to anti-immigration sentiment. Both Peter Dutton and John Howard said and i agree with them the dividend of their policies on unauthorized boat arrivals is that public support for a higher immigration intake actually increased. After Tony Abbott stopped the boats unlike in Europe at the same time. There was public pressure to accept in intake of Syrian/Iraqi refugees when he agreed to. It is one of the reason that Labor has accepted boat turnbacks now because they want to neutralize the issue. John Howard as Prime Minister actually increased immigration over his time as the economy boomed and One Nation declined with it.

Not surprised support for immigration is higher when it is assumed to be controlled (although I would be surprised if on a scale more immigration ever spent much time as a plurality or majority position), but it also doesn’t surprise that two members of the political elite were happy with more migration. This is exactly what I am talking about, they wanted more migration so tried to find a way to get it ‘against’ the what the opinion polls were saying.
I am not saying we should simply follow issue opinion polls, which tend to be surprisingly ignorant (see Voice polling over the 12 months prior to the referendum), but that a lot of what is passed off as ‘the Liberals (or Tories in the UK) need to take the more moderate position’ actually means taking a more radical position, and the centre ground is much further to the ‘right’ of where the so called moderate position is.
Also, they would then be treading in the same waters as Labor/Greens/Teals/various indies in fighting over what is sometimes no more than 20% or so of the population.

Oh, and @Nimalan, not saying you (or indeed a lot of those on here) would say it is far right, but a surprisingly large number of people (although still in single digits percentage wise) think any migration restrictions are far right.

@ MLV
Agree with you. I certainly dont think that any migration restrictions is far right which is why i think it is important for people to feel they are in control of the process and borders are managed.

1. Yeah I agree with that, though I do think Andrews saying that they were “preferences Nazis” is a massive stretch and offensive to those who actually survived the Holocaust.

3. Roughly equally. The main issue that they are honing in on is the gigantic debt (and to a lesser extent the CFMEU) and the gigantic debt hurts everyone equally. They shouldn’t ignore the red wall (and they’ll probsbly need some of its seats in order to win) but they should focus on the east of Melbourne first and foremost.

What the Victorian Coalition really needs is to win seats like Bass, Hastings, Pakenham, Ripon and South Barwon.

i think they could win all but south barown at the next election

@John I reckon they can win South Barwon, but I nevertheless think they’ll win all of the other seats for sure.

Anyway, back to federal politics: I have a challenge.

A topic we’ve discussed here a fair bit is expanding the House of Representatives. If the new House had 180 seats, how would you draw the boundaries to be fair and at quota?