2025 Australian federal election

Thanks Ian,
Much appreciated. That Website is great for postcode, SLA, LGA and suburb but does not seem to have electorates?

No worries, you might have to work out rough averages for electorates.

I can do a map for my averages if you like.

I tried to post links to my target seat maps for the redistribution but it seems to have not worked (the comment isn’t showing, it doesn’t even say “your comment is awaiting moderation”, but when I tried to resubmit the comment it wouldn’t let me. I’ll see if it gets fixed soon but if not I’ll repost the links.

@ np
A map with averages will be great and if you can do a table with top 10 and bottom 10 that will be great.

In The Australian today there’s an article reporting that the “Muslim Vote” campaign may be imploding already.

@Nimalan will do tomorrow (I’ll set a reminder so I don’t forget). My US Senate maps will be finished tonight and released tomorrow too on the UK thread.

On the early election front, I wouldn’t discount it.

Thing is, I don’t think Muslim Votes Matter matters (as it were) at all. In an FTP or OPV system I would be worried if I were Labor, but it is unlikely that preferences go anywhere but Labor so while there might be a cut in first preferences I think the Labor members wouldn’t be overly worried. That assumes of course that Muslim Votes Matter has any impact at all, which is debatable.
Nor do I think Labor is too worried about Queensland, yes the baseball bats are out for QLD Labor but Federal Labor doesn’t have a lot to lose anyway.

No, the real reason is that if the CFMEU scandal turns out to be Vic Labor’s Eddie Obeid moment, then getting ahead of that might be key for Labor – they have a lot to lose in VIC and if VIC Labor end up on the nose, particularly if Fed members are found to be complicit, then that could lose Labor a significant number of seats. While some inner city could go Green, outer suburban seats are more likely to swing to the coalition.

Between Labor and an independent affiliated with or in the mould of the Muslim Vote, who would the Coalition direct their preferences to?

@ Nicholas
We discussed this in the Calwell thread i think it is unlikely that the Coalition will direct preferences to a Muslim Vote Candidate, it will anger their base and Sky After Dark. Being Pro Israel is the only thing uniting the Libs from Dave Sharma, Katie Allen on end and the hard right on the end. The only time you will see Pesutto, Turnbull, Moira Deeming and Abbott together is if they are attending a Pro-Israel rally. The issue will be if Muslim Vote candidate preference the Libs out of anger to Labor in seats such as Werriwa eventhough that sounds stupid as Libs are more Pro-Israel than Labor.

@nimalan it wont matter because the only time the liberal preferences will matter in when they dont make the 2PP or 2CP but that only happens in a handful of seats in inner sydney and melbourne like Grayndler, Sydney, Melbourne, Wills, Cooper, Fowler and Clark. and in fowler and in fowler and clark theyre are independents who make the cut who would get their preferences anyway. and given that grayndler, sydney and melbourne would not get any serious numbers for the muslim candidates the only places preferences would matter would be wills and cooper. and of those two i think the only seat they could possibly make the 2CP would be Wills.

@ John
The Muslim vote Candidate will not make the 2CP in Wills. The Muslim community is only 10% so it will be a clear ALP/GRN contest, in Cooper, only 4.2% of the population in Muslim and there are more Greeks than Muslims in Cooper. The only places i think the Muslim Independents could make the 2CP is Calwell, Watson and Blaxland as the Muslim population is over 25% and the Libs get less than 30% primary vote in those seats. You need a very safe Labor seat with a high Muslim population for that to occur.

I couldn’t really work out how SEIFA is measured so I did a map per class instead.

Link: https://jmp.sh/HL2c7SD6

Pink is elite, blue is middle-class, red is working-class, purple is mixed and green is regional. Regional seats have to be measured differently to urban seats for many reasons.

I tried my best, any comments/suggestions/improvements are welcome and appreciated.

@ NP
Great map
1. I am not sure if i would class Melbourne or Adelaide as Elite. Melbourne has a lower median income than Jagagaja or Menzies.
2. I would classify Jagajaga has same as Menzies (It is more mixed-but has a high average median income)
3. Same with Perth it has a lot of renters etc most many very posh suburbs. Tangney is wealthier than Perth.
4. Pearce would be middle class, Cowan is mixed
5. Makin would be more mixed as well -City of Tea Tree Gully is middle class
6. Dickson is higher SES than Petrie.
7. Cooper should not be classed as Elite.
8 Gellibrand is mixed not working class
8. Fenner is not working class no part of the ACT is
9. Issacs is middle class

10. Higgins, Macnamara while a bit more mixed can be classified as Elite
11. Bruce and Holt are mixed in IMV

12. Mackellar should be Elite

ABC did a good article on this
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-03/fact-check-barnaby-joyce-poorest-electorates/11437932

There’s also an article here that outlines which electorates are in which quintile based on SEIFA scores
https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/where-are-the-most-disadvantaged-parts-of-australia-new-research-shows-its-not-just-income-that-matters

@Nimalan thanks.

1. Parts of Melbourne are fairly elite like Docklands and Southbank. Adelaide I really don’t know.
2. Jagajaga is an interesting seat. As you said before some suburbs are really well-off while others aren’t.
3. Perth does have some posh areas.
4. I did mean to put Pearce as middle-class. I must’ve made a mistake.
5. Makin is mixed now that I think about it, thanks for the correction.
6. Ditto above for Dickson.
7. I don’t know what I classify Cooper as but I don’t know why I put it as elite. Perhaps because Melbourne is near it?
8. See Point 5 for Gellibrand.
9. I thought the northwestern ACT was working-class? That’s where Fenner is.
10. Point 5 for Isaacs.

Thanks for the suggestions. Obviously I know about all the cities in Australia but I know NSW and Queensland cities better than I do others.

I also should’ve put Mackellar elite.

Should Labor get into deep s**t over the CFMEU, I am not sure the Greens can benefit from it. The Greens in the past have been recipients of CFMEU donations – I am not sure about recently – so they can hardly take the moral high ground.

@ NP
1. I would say East Melbourne and Parkville is elite, Docklands today had an oversupply of apartments and no longer as affluent as it once was a lot of the residents according to stats are international students are
2. Cooper can be classfied as mixed some gentrified areas but also working class areas same as Wills
3. In Fenner, the Gunghalin areas is pretty much like parts of Greenway a lot of South Asian and Chinese migrants new housing estates and mortgage belt Quite high income as well.

Also Southbank is in Macnamara not Melbourne

It would be interesting if the Liberals manage to win a seat like Bean or Franklin one day where they do well on the state level (in Brindabella in the ACT and Franklin in Tassie). Could that ever happen? Will Hodgman could win Franklin at a federal election, especially if the mood is against Labor.

@Nether Portal Great effort with the map. A few things.

1) I’d say Sturt is more elite than Adelaide. Adelaide’s got a bigger working class base both North and West of the electorate. It’s a bit of a 50-50 split. Sturt on the other hand I’d say is more 30-70 (WC vs Elite) but leans elite overall.

2. Chisholm I’d say is mixed. The southern end is fairly Working class but when mixed in with Glen Waverley and Box Hill it becomes more demographically diverse with a lot of different industries.

3. Flinders would definitely be an Elite seat given the affluence of towns like Portsea and Sorrento, which combined with the growth of places like Rosebud and Dromana, counters the slightly more working class of Hastings a lot more strongly.

@Neither Portal, heavily disagree that Chisholm is working class. South of the Monash Freeway is the only somewhat working class (but even they have been gentrifying and aren’t even Working Class to the extent of anywhere in Greater Dandenong) and East of Springvale Road can be considered Elite but the rest is well known to be middle class. So either Chisholm should be middle class or mixed.

@Tommo9 @Marh true I think Chisholm was a mistake.

Also Lindsay is more mixed like Dunkley while Hughes is clearly middle class now.

NP, I suggest redoing your map with the IER index of SEIFA.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/32dcbb18c1d24f4aa89caf680413c741/page/IER/

@redistributed Didn’t ICAC only investigate Obeid after the 2011 election though?

One problem I have with the IRSAD is it includes things that appear to be correlates rather than attributes of socioeconomic (dis)advantage. I’m referring to the following variables:
– “occupied private dwellings paying rent less than $215 per week”
– “occupied private dwellings with no cars”
– “occupied private dwellings paying mortgage greater than $2,800 per month”
– “occupied private dwellings paying rent greater than $470 per week”
– “occupied private dwellings with four or more bedrooms”

This surely explains at least partly how the index ends up classifying suburbs such as The Ponds in the highest percentile.

Consider a young family of four who live in a four bedroom house in The Ponds. They moved this far out because they couldn’t afford a house anywhere closer to the city. With rising interest rates, they are now under mortgage stress. The parents commute to the city for work by car. That’s one hour each way, and a lot of tolls!

Now consider someone living in a luxury three bedroom apartment in Barangaroo. He owns the property outright. He earns much more than the family in The Ponds, and has no children to take care of. He doesn’t bother owning a car as he doesn’t need one, living adjacent to the CBD and a five minute walk from the office.

The SEIFA index would seem to imply on multiple fronts that the family in The Ponds under mortgage stress is more “advantaged” than the multi-millionaire bachelor in Barangaroo!

@Nicholas that also explains why areas like Point Cook and other growth areas are classified as very high percentiles despite them not really being affluent. There are more affluent areas that have lower classifications than some growth suburbs.

@ Dan M
Growth areas often have high SEIFA initially as they dont have many retirees, unemployed, adult children living at home etc. Over time some of these suburbs de-gentrify-see link below. An example is Roxburgh Park in Melbourne which started of as a growth area full of young families but no seen as undesriable and dangerous.

https://chartingtransport.com/tag/seifa/
Visualising the changing socio-economic landscape of Melbourne

Both Barangaroo and The Ponds have the same score of #100 though. The median weekly household income in The Ponds is $3,285 which goes a lot way to showing why it’s in the 100th percentile.

Given the liberals have pulled ahead in a few recwnt popls it wont be long before they lead in the newpoll im thinking they will be ties in the upcoming one and then in the next one or the one after. I think liberals will win the 2pp in the upcoming election but not govt due to the teals siding with labor to form minority govt as without those real seats I doubt they will be able to get thw required 18 seats to form majority govt. Im expecting the libs to get anywhere between 8-12 seats at the next election

@ John
There is a possibility that Teals could offer to form government with the Libs if they agree not to scrap the 2030 target but i think Nats may force Libs not to accept the offer.

The Libs would be better off not accepting a minority government deal with the teals. For a start the Nats would implode the coalition deal. Also it will essentially make it impossible for them to win any teal seats back.

Is the federal Liberal Party the most conservative branch of the Liberal Party? Even the NSW Nationals are more moderate than they are. It seems only one state branch is moving further to the right: the SA Liberals. Everyone else is becoming more moderate than before or staying moderate.

* NSW Liberals: notably a moderate branch (NSW politics in general is more centrist with NSW Labor also being moderate); moderate Premiers and a moderate Opposition Leader in Mark Speakman, Perrottet was socially conservative but not really that much
* Victorian Liberals: has some populists and has had some problems before (e.g Moira Deeming) but it seems that the election of a moderate leader in John Pesutto has fixed a lot of that
* Queensland LNP: once more socially conservative but has mostly moved to the centre in recent years with a moderate Opposition Leader in Tim Nicholls, then a more conservative Deb Frecklington and a middle-ground David Crisafulli, plus quite a moderate Brisbane City Council party and a moderate Lord Mayor in Adrian Schrinner
* WA Liberals: previously had infighting like in Victoria it seems that a moderate Opposition Leader in Libby Mettam has fixed that
* SA Liberals: still having infighting problems after the loss of the Liberal government after one term and moderate Premier Steven Marshall nearly losing his seat and the subsequent election of a socially conservative leader in David Speirs
* Tasmanian Liberals: the most moderate branch, still in government under moderate Premier Jeremy Rockliff and had previous moderate Premiers
* ACT Liberals: once facing infighting problems with socially conservative factions heading the party through their unelectability, moderate leader Elizabeth Lee has fixed those problems
* NT CLP: the CLP have always been relatively moderate, having legalised euthanasia in the 1990s when the federal government opposed it, and currently has a moderate leader in Lia Finocchiaro

In contrast, the federal Liberals are moving to the right under Dutton. The only other branch moving to the right is the SA branch.

The teals might have a chance of taking out a heap of Liberals in Adelaide on the state level if they don’t change. Peter Malinauskas is a moderate Labor Premier so he might even allow Labor to take some seats from them too and leave them without seats in Adelaide. They already took Dunstan after Steven Marshall retired. Adelaide is a fairly progressive city despite every federal seat there voting No (I voted No but I’m still a centre-right liberal conservative with moderate to somewhat conservative views depending on the topic, and also very pro-agriculture like the Nationals; so the Voice isn’t really a big issue on how conservative or moderate or progressive one is).

Anyway, we know Labor will win the next state election in SA. Malinauskas is popular and respectable while David Speirs is focused on weird issues like banning corflutes and HTV cards for some reason.

More comments from me on SA politics can be found on the Black thread.

@nimalan i doubt they will as they have been openly hostile towards dutton and the coalition. most of them are more inclined to vote for labor in the event of minority govt. i think the liberals may be able to unseat chaney in curtin and ryan in kooyong but other then that most should hold there seats

@ John
What happens if the Teals offer the Liberals government on two conditons
1. Not scrap the 2030 emisisons target
2. Dutton steps aside in favour of Dan Tehan or Susan Ley

@ nimalan

what if woolworths decides to stop screwing around and pay me what thy owe?

why would they do that when theirs a lap dog in Albo they can wag the tail of?

@ John
It may actually be a good outcome because it may actually settle the climate issue once and for all and politics can move onto bread and butter issues and economic policy. The Teals can then survive in 2028 as you will have an economically right wing but socially moderate government eventually some of the Teals such as Allegra Spender, Sophie Scamps may actually be converted to Liberals and offered Liberal membership.

@nimalan thats the exact reason im wanting labor to win minority so we can wipe them out in 2028.

I don’t think the general public would appreciate giving a Peter Dutton Liberal’s a close to majority, and then having a bunch of independents decide they get to choose who leads the country. That would not go down well. The scenario where Libs + Teals = 76 seats or more, is one in which the Liberals do really well at the 2025 election. In which case, the argument becomes that Dutton was a very successful leader of the Libs and has a mandate to stay on.

@ John
Interestingly, Sky after Dark especially Credlin believe the Teals seats are gone for good and when the Teals eventually retire Labor will win Mackellar, Kooyong, Goldstein etc which is why the Libs should try instead for Calwell, Scullin, Gorton and Spence. She argues that Teal seats are in transition and voting Teal is a stepping stone until they become Labor seats. Do you think that is right and that Calwell is more winnable than Goldstein longer term?

@John are you a member of the Liberal party? Just curious as you seem to be passionately defending them every step of the way and using the term ‘we’ in your explanations. Might explain why your analysis has been to predict Liberals to gain ground and win eventually even if the electorate isn’t turning conservative as it used to be.

I’d agree that a Labor minority is likely next year but to say that Liberals will win a thumping majority isn’t guaranteed in 2028. The political landscape’s changed greatly since 2010-2013. I’d say that if Labor falters in 2028 it would still be a minority Coalition government at best, which is where it gets really messy if the Teals back the Liberals along with the Nationals.

@drake why not? they did it in 2010. the liberals woud have been in governemnt then if was not for oakshott and windosr who wnet against their electorates wishes. as it was 76-74 on a 2pp towards the coalition but ended up being 76-74 to labor as they jumped the fence.

@nimalan i dont think they are gone for good as they are still notionally liberal seats on a 2pp basis. they voted teal because of a bunch of factors in 2022 that went against the libs. if scomo had of gone in nov 2021 he probably would have won or in worst case ben in minority. likewise if all those factors did not come into play in may 2022 albo would have still won albeit in minority.

@tommo9 while im a liberal supporter i have consistantly stated that labor will most likelyform minority government but liberals will definatly gain ground in 2025. Labor will buckle under minority government with a the greens, independents and teals. unless they can hold in the low 70 seats they will need to parley with the more radical teals and greens and not just the independents

@Tommo9 The electorate isn’t massively different to what it was 15 years ago. One way or another, Gen Y/Z will vote more conservative, particularly if there’s a medium to long term sub-par left-wing government (like Canada’s for example, where Trudeau’s voters are generally older than Poilievre’s are)

Areas held by the teals are wealthy…. these are not the type of seats Labor wins, so in the absence of the teals they will be liberal held. In the current climate most if nor all the teals will be reelected

@Michael Quinlivan I think the ones that could be unseated are Kate Chaney in Curtin with the recovery swing back to the Liberals in Perth (and WA in general) and maybe Monique Ryan in Kooyong since she isn’t personally popular and Amelia Hamer is a very good candidate. The others I think will stay teal unless they preselect another star candidate like Gladys Berejiklian in Warringah. The state MPs for Sydney and Melbourne seats that overlap with federal teal seats could contest and win those seats in the future but they’re probably not ready to retire from state politics yet.