2025 Australian federal election

@Scart 100% I agree we don’t need him specifically anymore. He was an alright PM:

Also, @James, Malcolm Turnbull had a personal vote among Labor/Greens voters who would’ve now vote teal. Bondi is the tealest place in Sydney. Even on the state level it votes teal when everywhere else votes Liberal.

@james because he wants to be a martyr and be thrown out

state by state opinion poling has been released b newspoll showing a slightly better result for the coaltion in QLD, VIC, NSW and Sa although they went backwards in wa but are still better then the 2022 result

Labor’s challenge is gaining seats. They’ve had a terrible first term and they’ve only got 78 seats (including Aston), and 75 (previously 76) are needed for a majority. They’ll obviously lose at least two in Perth (likely Bullwinkel and Tangney). The draft redistribution has abolished Higgins (a Labor seat) and while Labor’s gained Menzies, they’ve lost Bennelong to the Liberals. If the redistribution proposal is successful then technically Labor’s starting with just 75 seats (78 – Bullwinkel – Tangney – Higgins + Menzies – Bennelong = 75).

Labor will do better in the inner suburbs while the Coalition will do better in the outer suburbs by campaigning on issues such as cost of living, crime, health, etc while Labor and the teals will attack Dutton in the well-off city suburbs since they’re more centrist or left-leaning. Those suburbs will mostly be in the southern and southeastern capital cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide and Hobart) as opposed to in Brisbane, Perth and Darwin.

Both Labor and Libs have opened preselection nominations for Reid.
One to watch, given the potential match-up of candidates and the overinflated margin (as was the case on 2022)

@NP they still need 76 for a majority as 75 is only half 150 and not a majority. anyone who believes labor can get a majority is kidding themselves. the best they can hope for is minority government. i predict labor will lose between 8-12 seats at very least. and its still possible in my opinion for the coalition to get to a majority even without the teals. but why would they want to? the senate would be gridlocked at best and hostile at worst. their best bet is to hurt labor enough to force them into minority and then pick apart the labor-greens-teal-independent government like they did last time and then they would more then likely win all of those teal seats back with the exception of wentworth which is too marginal because of the redistribution so i the short term theyre better off with spender there until an expansion of parliament happens

Documents published by the Independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority (IPEA) this week revealed Dutton billed taxpayers $21,005 on September 25 for a flight from Brisbane to Moree, in northern NSW.
The Liberal leader then charged taxpayers the same amount twice more as he flew on from Moree to Dubbo and Dubbo to Newcastle on September 26.
This comes just weeks after he was called out for claiming $23,000 in travel expenses after booking a private jet from Canberra to Tamworth to speak at a News Corp event – and again, to criticise the cost of living crisis under Labor. hypocrisy much?

I’ve made a map of electorates (2022 boundaries) by the number of comments on their Tally Room pages for the 2022 federal election. You can view it here: https://jmp.sh/FAvUgfyV

The lightest blue is under 50 comments, while the darkest blue is over 300 comments, so the interval is 50 (0-50, 50-100, 100-150, 150-200, 200-250, 250-300). I used blue because it’s my favourite colour.

Unsurprisingly, the most discussed seats were in the cities and the least discussed were in regional and rural areas. Only a handful of seats outside the capital cities had over 50 comments on their pages and only four had over 100 comments on their pages, three of which were in NSW (Gilmore, Hunter and Richmond), with the other one being Corangamite in Victoria.

Also unsurprisingly, key seats and marginal seats were much more discussed than safe seats (as is evident by, for example, northwestern Sydney where Greenway and Lindsay each had over 50 comments on their pages while Chifley and Mitchell each had less than 50), though three exceptions to that rule are Cook, Grayndler and Melbourne, due to those seats being held by party leaders (Cook was Scomo’s seat, Grayndler is Albo’s seat and Melbourne is held by Greens leader Adam Bandt). Hughes is a marginal seat but I would say the reason it had so many comments was that combined with the fact that at the time Craig Kelly was the sitting MP and he was UAP leader from his defection from the Liberals in 2021 (barring the brief period he sat as an independent) until only recently (when he joined One Nation as their campaign director).

The Liberal seats that were contested and won by teals a lot of attention, as did what is now Dai Le’s seat of Fowler and the three Brisbane seats that the Greens picked up in 2022 (Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan).

Top 10 seats with the most common on their Tally Room comments:

1. Higgins, VIC (338)
2. Fowler, NSW (294)
3. Kooyong, VIC (260)
4. Macnamara, VIC (252)
5. North Sydney, NSW (244)
6. Richmond, NSW (236)
7. Warringah, NSW (224)
8. Griffith, QLD (212)
9. Chisholm (197)
10. Wills, VIC (191)

Just realised I accidentally coloured Wentworth in the wrong colour.

NEW VERSION WITH FIXED WENTWORTH: https://jmp.sh/oEJWOxg1

@john With regards to your previous comments on the Muslim Vote unseating “sitting” MPs, my two cents as a Banks voter: I would say David Coleman in Banks is going nowhere. He is very, very popular in this seat and the Muslim population of 6.3% here votes Labor anyway.
Furthermore, the seat is gentrifying upwards towards strong Liberal territory, with previously working-class suburbs like Padstow, Revesby turning into increasingly pricey family-friendly suburbs where a brand new semi-detached can sell for $1.95 million etc.
I would be very worried if I was Jason Clare, as Kristina Keneally should’ve been during 2022.

@wombater i agree that with such a low % he will be safe as most probably vote labor anyway. The ones to watch would be watson blaxland werriwa and McMahon. Wataon because it has the highest %, blaxland a combination of the % and how much the redistribution has changed that division, werriwa because of the lowargin and the fact she’s regarded asone of the weaker mps and mcmahon because of the frank carbone factor

Interestingly Blaxland is the only seat with more Muslims than Christians.

@ Nether Portal
Another good idea like the great maps you have been doing is to Do Top 10 seats for each religion a table may work rather than map if there is overlap. For example Hinduism is the main minority religion in New England it will not be in the Top 10 for Hinduism and i think it will be Gellibrand, Lalor or Greenway.

Albo was in qld announcing candidates yesterday but denied speculation of an early election. Yea like were that stupid. There will be an election before the year is out

If there is an election before December 31, I’ll eat some of the yellow cake needed for Dutton’s power stations.

John, I agree. Jason Clare should be very worried.

More maps and data coming soon!

People sometimes ask me: what motives me to make all these maps? Well, other than gaming and sport, one of my other passions is turning on some rap and making some maps and sharing them.

This is what I’ve been working on all day.

I’ve listed every single booth at the 2022 federal election where the booth winner won more than 80% of the TPP vote. You can view it here as a CSV file: https://jmp.sh/9JGvBUTt

The booth with the highest TPP was Nowendoc, a small rural town known for its snow in the Division of New England. The seat’s winner, former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, won a massive 96.1% TPP there. This is a huge amount!

Hopefully I didn’t miss any and hopefully this is useful and interesting to people since this took five hours (with breaks of course).

@NQ View im gonna hold you to that

What of the booths that I listed in that CSV file do you think will stay in that grouping and which ones will go back up there?

What advantages are there for Labor to call an election this year?

It’s tricky given the redistributions, the QLD and ACT/NT elections. There’s also a possible cash rate rise, though a decrease is on the cards this year. This may seem weird but I think cash rate and inflation rates will be the biggest determinant.

I also think that the bolster their position in QLD, they’ll let QLDers take their anger out on state Labor. This rests upon the hypothesis that QLDers vote door the opposite party federally to state level to counterbalance the other.

@Nether Portal

Interesting. You have a few booths marked as the wrong party though, Wiley Park East, Windsor, Katoomba. I was looking and trying to find if there was any Lib polling booths in capital cities with >80% Lib vote. Curious what the safest Lib booth in a capital city would be. I guess you could find a few rural booths that are technically part of a capital city (La Trobe, Hume) but curious say 10km from the CBD.

@Votante
Yeah it would seem extremely foolish to go for an early election before Queenslanders can get the bats out on October 26.

Plus the redistributions aren’t all determined until October 17, so that’s another reason to hold off for at least a few more months. The proposed redistributions aren’t that favourable for Labor, but the mini-redistributions would be pretty disruptive, with mergers of Warringah-Wentworth, Chisholm-Higgins and a new Durack-Hasluck. At the very least, it’d be a bad look.

Given the mood shift in the US over the last week or so, the Presidential Election on November 5 could now be an opportunity for Albo if he’s feeling bold. An election of President Trump would frighten a lot of Australians and may well turn voters back to Labor as the “safe pair of hands” (but it may well boost “strongman” Dutton instead, so it’s a high risk play).

I agree that it most likely will come down to the economic mood in October/November. Albo will have to decide if it’s going to be better or worse by the time May rolls around.

Peter Van Onselen seems to think Albanese will go early in his column (on the Daily Mail, mind), looking at August 31, citing things like the Stage 3 tax cuts fresh on people’s minds and beating a potential rate hike in September. Bold, but fairly unlikely.

Like @Votante and @Angas mentioned, there’s the issue of Queensland (and NT) voters ready to swing their baseball bats hard at Labor (any brand) and if Albo beats the state parties Federal Labor could be the ones copping it (and hard). Redistribution is also an issue that PVO left out and rushing to have redistributions done will only end up badly for the progressive side with the Teals’ Warringah and Wentworth and Labor’s Chisholm and Higgins both being merged, whilst the Liberals get a better chance with the new seat between Hasluck and Durack.

One thing that an early election could benefit Labor in is the Muslim vote. Granted the Payman saga happened fairly recently so wounds would be still raw and fresh in the Middle Eastern community against Labor. If there was an election now and they had candidates for the Western Sydney seats, Jason Clare, Chris Bowen and Tony Burke would all take a huge haircut in their margins whilst Werriwa will probably fall to either the Independent or Liberals. However if they go early enough, the movement may not garner enough momentum and might have to rush to find candidates (or drop out altogether). Alternatively, Labor will probably bet on the fact that by May next year anger over Payman and Gaza will have subsided and the swing will be less, but then again, Albo was pleading with the Western Sydney communities last week with the same lines of ‘Cost of Living Relief’ so I think he’s worried.

Interesting times ahead.

Early election will backfire, In Canada in 1990 a provincial premier called an early election when he had a majority, He lost that election.

Leaders calling early elections to avoid bad stuff happening the next year, Risky gamble. very risky.

Albanese will be the largest party, but he will pull a Theresa May and lose ground during the campaign and will make Labor stressed on election night like 2010.

In terms of an early election, it might be worth considering whether Labor writes off Queensland so an early election is more appealing. Considering the Coalition stranglehold on the state there is little to lose for Labor in that state. The focus may well be more on WA, NSW and Victoria. It may make sense to go early in those states.

@Angas If Albo is seriously dumb enough to campaign on “Drumpf bad” and “Drumpf = Dutton” right after Trump is (likely) elected as the leader of our closest ally, then he would deserve to lose the election on that alone.

@Scart I agree even though I hate Trump and Biden (by the way Ben said no to a US thread).

@Drake Rouse Hill was 66% Liberal.

@NP just use the UK thread

Toorak West (Higgins) was 67.1% Liberal 2PP and 62.5% Liberal Primary. I THINK this is the highest in an urban area. This area is full of mansions and was close to a tie in the Voice referendum, so I think the Liberal strength here is solely based on class rather than social issues.

@Drake
There aren’t many city booths with a comfortable Coalition 2CP victory:
The best that I could find in each state:
QLD Ryan: Brookfield 1062 votes 60.1% (but doesn’t meet your 10km., from GPO criterion)
VICTORIA Higgins: Toorak West – 392 votes 70.1%
Armadale North – 848 votes 69.8%
NSW Bennelong: Putney – 2,064 votes 58.8% ( 9 mi from GPO )
Berowra Maroota South – 547 “ 80.6% ( not within 10km., though )
Mitchell: Rouse Hill – 2,696 votes 66.4%. “ “
n.b. Fowler: Abbotsbury – 1274 “ 62.2% Dai Le’s best booth

Incidentally, of the three booths on NP’s list that you correctly identified, there are two that should be Labour, and the Windsor booth was won by Greens on 2CP.
I guess that search shows how badly the Liberals fared in urban areas.

If it was not for the Lockdown backlash there would have been thumping Labor booths in Meadow Heights, St Albans, Dandenong etc
What are the best Labor booths in the Urban areas. I would define this as within the contingious urban sprawl of a capital city?

@Nimalan

Those booths were probably the safest for Labor in 2007, now the safest Labor booths are inner city booths with a high green vote in ALP vs LIB contests: Footscray, Kensington, Marrickville booths in Watson

For Lib vs ALP results, >70% booths in teal seats

Hawthorn South 82% (Kooyong)
Vacluse 78.5% (Wentworth)
Rose Bay Prepoll 77% (Wentworth)
Dover Heights 76.4% (Wentworth)
Bellevue Hill South 73% (Wentworth)
Rosebay Central 72.3% (Wentworth)
Dalkeith 72.5% (Curtin)
Mount Claremont 70.5% (Curtin)
Turramurra Valley 70.3% (Bradfield)

I think there might be an error with the Hawthorn South booth. The 3CP is

LIB: 57.38
IND: 37.6
ALP: 5.02

Meaning that Labor only got 34.5% of independent’s preferences and the Libs got 65.5% of them. I think they have these the wrong way round, which would make this booth actually

ALP: 29.65%
LIB: 70.35%

Would add .1% to the ALP Kooyong margin

@ Drake
Thanks for that, much appreciated.
I am surprised there are no >70% LIB/ALP notional TPP booths in North Sydney (Hunters Hill, Longueville) or Mackellar (Palm Beach, Terry Hills) etc. I can understand Warringah though with such a low primary vote for the Libs.
Just one correction the Marrickville booths are in Barton not Watson. What are the safest working class Labor booths (Wiley Park East was mention), i think Salisbury in Spence has a 76% TPP booths.

I actually forgot Mackellar existed. Safest Lib booth in Teal seats (against Labor)

Kooyong: Hawthorn South 82% (* maybe an error, could be 70.4%)
Wentworth: Vacluse 78.5%
Curtin: Dalkeith 72.5%
Bradfield: Turramurra Valley 70.3%
North Sydney: Hunter’s Hill: 66%
Mackellar: Narraweena 68.3%
Goldstein: Middle Brighton 65.9%
Warringah: French Forrest Prepoll 63.6%. Excluding pre-poll Balmoral at 59.5%

After the redistribution Wentworth will be one of the most divided seats, the five booths transferred from Sydney are all >70% ALP, 3/6 of the Kingsford Smith booths transferred are also >70% ALP

Clovelley: 75.8% ALP
Vacluse: 78.5% LIB

Both in the same seat, such big difference despite being only 15 mins away from each other

I will also add the safest Liberal booths in Adelaide, Boothby and Sturt while they are mixed seats they do contain the poshest parts of Adelaide
1. Adelaide- Unley Park 61%
2. Boothby-Netherby 59%
3. Sturt-Beaumont-61%

@Drake same as Blacktown and Castle Hill they’re not far away but Windsor Road crosses a big social divide in Sydney.

Castle Hill is one of the richest suburbs in Sydney (the Hills has a lot of upper-middle class people who are white-collar businesspeople and of European, Asian or Indian descent and the area always votes heavily Liberal) while Blacktown is a working-class suburb that always votes Labor (though the eastern part of Blacktown City Council is a very competitive battleground on the state level while the western side is one of the poorest parts of Sydney and has a lot of dangerous suburbs, gangs, crime, drugs, etc).

@ Nether Portal
Perhaps the biggest social divide i can think of for two suburbs near each other is Eaglemont versus West Heidelberg one has SEIFA score of 100 the other has 4.

@Nimalan if that’s in Melbourne then what do you think the biggest in Sydney is?

@ NP
1. Some examples Kings Langley versus Lalor Park along Vardys Road
2. Glen Alpine versus Airds
3. Macquarie Links (Gated Community) versus Macquarie Fields

In Sydney there is no low SES areas near the North Shore or Northern Beaches. So the above are probably the best examples. The Two Sydneys meet near Parramatta close to Old Windsor road where the flat Cumberland Plain gives way the leafy hilly north. This is why Parramatta and Winston Hills are key marginal seats as they cross the social divide. The seat of Banks also crosses the social divide which is also why Oatley and East Hills are marginal seats.

Daceyville #3
Kingsford #94

Right next to each other. Nearby Randwick is #99 and Coogee is #100

@Nimalan very true. Kings Langley and Lalor Park are part of the Hills-Blacktown divide.

Kings Langley and Lalor Park is the example that always comes to mind. On the other side of Blacktown LGA, Ropes Crossing and Willmot is another one.

Funny you mention that @Nether Portal, some of my friends who live in the inner city like to make fun of me because I “live near Blacktown”. I’m in Castle Hill!

Nimalan, which website did you use for SEIFA scores? There also seems to be four categories:
1. The Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage (IRSD)
2. The Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage (IRSAD)
3. The Index of Education and Occupation (IEO)
4. The Index of Economic Resources (IER)

@ Ian

This is what i used for SEIFA scores example for Campbelltown Council. Great if someone can find a full list by electorate. I use Profile ID to look at demographics by suburbs etc as well

https://profile.id.com.au/campbelltown/seifa-disadvantage-small-area

@ Nicholas
Interestingly, i know someone who lives in Kellyville Ridge but always wishes he lived in Kellyville instead so he did not fall under Blacktown Council.

@ Nether Portal
A good article from before 2004 election when Greenway was a key marginal and explained the divide. I learnt about Vardys Road being a divide.

https://www.crikey.com.au/2004/07/28/greenway-to-heaven-and-a-religious-wedge/

@Nimalan

Yep! I can relate having lived in Stanhope Gardens. I lived on “the wrong side of Old Windsor Road” by around 200 metres.

Thanks Nimalan, I’m guessing you’re using the SEIFA Percentile (1-100)? Here’s another website to use:
https://ibb.co/Jy1SDYP
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/32dcbb18c1d24f4aa89caf680413c741/