2025 Australian federal election

@nimalan obviously the libs cant win but if frank carbone runs with his party in GWS places like McMahon, Werriwa, Blaxland, MacArthur, Greenway

The thing is that Frank Carbone and muslim vote will compete for same vote. Also Blaxland, Macarthur, Greenway are quite far from Fairfield LGA and have a very different ethnic mix to Farifield.

@nimalan but if they preference each other specifcally preferncing carbone from the muslim vote plus the libs that may just get him across

Teal independent Monique Ryan has warned Australia’s “economic future” will be at risk if Prime Minister Anthony Albanese does not call an early federal election and has subsequently written to him.

@Kent Davidson I think she’s just sticking up for the left, the teals and the city while punishing the regions and rural areas. Why? Because it will mean that the outer suburbs and regional and rural areas will continue to be over quota which would gerrymander the boundaries in favour of Labor, the Greens and the teals.

Monique, you’re a disgrace.

Regarding the Arab/Muslim vote, I think independents and minor parties will be the big winners with the anti-Labor backlash. Independents like Frank Carbone and Dai Le may not necessarily run on a pro-Palestine platform like the Greens are but they may scoop up protest votes from disaffected Labor voters. Ironically, One Nation could gain protest voters even though they are very pro-Israel simply because voters are looking for alternatives. It’s similar to how PHON and UAP picked up disaffected voters in 2022.

Blaxland and Watson have large Labor margins and popular local members and so the buffer is too large to surmount. Werriwa is probably more at risk and this is compounded by cost of living issues.

@Votante I don’t think Muslims will go to One Nation. That’s like ham and prawns voting for Christmas, or turkeys voting for Thanksgiving, or Jews voting for the Greens.

Age may make a difference in the Muslim vote – I suspect the under 35 age group will look more like their age cohort in general in their voting more likely to drift towards the Greens than their parents. wIt is not just Gaza – the Greens been campaigning on refugee issues for the past two decades

@Nether Portal, Muslims might be turned off by One Nation’s history of targeting Muslims. Since the pandemic, One Nation has moved their focus away from Islam and onto pandemic politics, climate change and culture war issues. You don’t hear them talking about Muslims that much anymore. Some disenfranchised Muslims may be attracted to them or likeminded parties either because of their populism, social conservatism or economic nationalism.

@Votante their history will continue to deter them. Trust me.

@Nether Portal She’s just trying to do it to keep herself (and Tink) in parliament for another term.

@SCart exactly and she should hang her head in shame.

@Nether Portal
That’s an interesting point, but I’m not certain that an early election would overwhelmingly benefit the anti-Coalition bloc.

At least in NSW where there’s signficant divergence between divisions, the most overenrolled divisions are in Greater Western Sydney and the Hunter Valley and Cowper. The majority of those divisions are Labor. The voting power of these electors is diminished until the redistribution goes though.

On the other hand, the most underenrolled divisions are generally in the eastern half of Sydney and those are relatively evenly shared between Labor, the Coalition and the Teals. Regional areas are generally below average, but less so. So those are overpowered at the present moment.

I’m assuming there are similar dynamics in Victoria and the other states.

An early election would protect Tink from the redistribution but the mini-redistribution would knock-out one of Steggall or Spender, and would also merge Chisholm and Higgins. In WA, Durack and Hasluck would be split into 3, which I suppose would be 2 likely gains for the Coalition.

Ryan would certainly be happy with an early election as it means she can retain her entire electorate, but I’m not sure that it’d overall help the Teal or Labor cause. More likely she’s just grandstanding as she often does.

My predictions (with Bennelong and Aston as Liberal seats and Menzies as a Labor seat):
Labor gains: Leichhardt, Deakin, Sturt
Liberal gains: Blair, Paterson, Robertson, Gilmore, Menzies, Lyons, Bullwinkel, Tangney, Lingiari
Greens gains: Wills
Overall:
Labor: 70
LNP: 64
Greens: 5
Teals: 7 (Haines included)
Other independents: 2 (Wilkie and Le)
CA: 1
Katter: 1

@SCart
Sounds like a resonable prediction based on how things are tracking. Any divisions you think will come close to flipping, for example Macnamara?

@NP There are Jews that have voted for the Greens, but given recent events they may very well have been driven away from voting for them, or in the case of a recent article from The Age who mentions founding a Jewish group within the Greens, driven out of its membership altogether. With that said though, I’d be hesitant to compare that with Muslims voting for One Nation, at least so long as Pauline Hanson leads them.

@WL honestly there are more Muslim One Nation voters than Jewish Greens voters.

@Angas Cowper is a Nationals seat.

@Scart those are some reasonable predictions but I think the LNP will retain Leichhardt and unless Labor loses government they’ll retain Robertson.

My predictions at the moment (maps coming soon):

* Labor gains: Deakin, Sturt
* Coalition gains: Blair, Bullwinkel, Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons, Paterson, Tangney
* Independent gain: Bradfield
* Tossups: Hasluck, Macnamara (Labor/Greens), McEwen, Pearce

I’ve counted Aston and Menzies as Labor seats and Bennelong as a Liberal seat.

If Dutton wasn’t leader then due to the economy at the moment being shit then:

Coalition holds: Bradfield, Deakin, Sturt
Other Coalition gains: Boothby, Curtin, Kooyong, Menzies
Tossups: Robertson

The thing is about Robertson the Liberals traditionally do very well around Terrigal and Labor does very well around Woy Woy since Terrigal is like the Northern Beaches of the Central Coast while Woy Woy is locally nicknamed “Mount Druitt by the Sea”. The semi-rural areas vote 65% Liberal on the federal and state level. Gosford is where the bellwether vote is.

Those who say Labor would’ve won Robertson on state figures in 2015 and 2019 are lying. Labor barely gained Gosford in 2015 (50.2% TPP) and in 2019 they got 57.3% TPP. In contrast, Terrigal was won by the Liberals with 59.0% TPP in 2015 and 62.3% TPP in 2019.

In 2015 the Liberals actually won most of the Gosford booths. It was the Woy Woy booths that cost them victory and Gosford is now one of four seats the NSW Liberals really regret losing in 2015 (the others being Port Stephens, Strathfield and The Entrance, though arguably they could’ve narrowly got Charlestown if it weren’t for the corruption stuff).

@ Votante
The UAP does not have a clear demographic base and each election they talk about something completely unrelated and do well in different seats. This is different to even One Nation where there is clear demographic trends where they do well. Fairfax is very different to Calwell. Me thinks they may campaign against offshore windfarms, transmission lines etc in 2025 which is not interest in Calwell or Gorton.
@ Nether Portal, Some refer to Terrigal as the North Northern beaches. I am cautious about Lingiari as it is very difficult to get good polling and also is a very hard seat to go door knocking etc in all the hard to reach remote communities. Also remember 2022 was the first time since 1984 when Warren Snowden was not on the ballot in much of the NT. Fun Fact Warren Snowden was the last MP to have sat in the Old Parliament house.

@Nimalan interesting fact.

I think Lingiari will be a gain because the Coalition is set to perform very well at the Queensland and NT elections, mostly thanks to the massive swings in regional and outer-suburban areas.

Alice Springs and Katherine vote heavily CLP on the federal and territory level. There should definitely be a big swing to the CLP there since the margin didn’t fully recover in 2020 though I would argue that Michael Gunner was quite popular in the Territory whereas Territory Labor now has heaps of problems.

@Nether Portal I pretty much agree with you re your predictions but can you explain why you think Boothby is a potential gain? I know its marginal with a first termer MP, just interesting given its demographic and the former MP Nicolle Flint aiming for the seat again/

@scart il back that cautiously. though i think the libs will hold deakin micheal sukkar seems high profile enough to retain his seat.

@angas macnamara wil stay labor as labor will benefit from greens or lib preferences. the only way it flips is labor finishes 3rd

I think Wannon is a real chance to go to Dyson, especially if the redistribution goes as planned. Most of the newly added parts in the East seem to be left leaning and the Climate 200 group are already pumping money in down there.

And it’s not a big margin to overcome.

Nether Portal, nice melt over the Greens, the party has many Jewish members, including the candidate for Northcote in 2022, Campbell Gome, who himself has been subject to false smears in the media over the antisemitism lie. These people aren’t Uncle Toms like yourself.

@witness i think tehan will be safe wannon isnt like the north shore of sydney and this time there wont be that anti morrison/govt vote

@ Votante,
Pauline hanson has in fact attacked Islam or expressed Pro-Israel sentiments she wore an Israel scarf to parliament. She offered to take Mehreen Faruqi to the airport a few times. Islamaphobia and antisemetism have arisen again since October 7. UAP does not really have a history of being Anti-Islam but as i mentioned above does not have a clear base or strategy.

Pauline hanson just gave a speech

so i think the pandemic may have just been a temporary break and now Anti-Islam sentiments have grown again.

@nimalan https://www.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/0ba67fbf-7372-40be-8efc-23b476978372

@nimalan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVeIetSW4sY

Similar to Greens Support is almost nonexistent among Jews due to Middle Eastern politics, Pauline Hanson One Nation support is Almost non- existent among Muslim voters as their anti-muslim stance are well-known. The only reason why One Nation seems to have a sizable support in those areas are probably mostly from non-muslim working class like Eastern European Christians and Less Educated Anglos that actually are still significant is high Muslim concentrated areas.

@Wilson and One Nation has Muslim members and has endorsed Muslims candidates. Your point?

Also, Uncle Tom is a derogatory term (regarded as a racial slur according to Wiktionary) that refers to a black person who is perceived as being too white. There’s no need to use it Wilson.

@Nimalan @Marh I agree I don’t see Muslims going to One Nation especially since as Nimalan pointed out she wore an Israeli scarf into Parliament.

One Nation has always been quite pro-Israel and hasn’t ever really criticised Judaism or the Jews, and the party has virtually no history of antisemitism (I’m pretty sure Fraser Anning was expelled from One Nation before his Final Solution speech).

@Neither Portal, sounds similar to the European Far-right and the Republican Party, Pro-Israel due to Christianity and some or even most are pro-Putin. One Nation is Pro-Israel and Pro-Russia.

@Marh One Nation isn’t pro-Russia (at least not anymore). In fact the right-wing minor parties in Australia have actually been anti-Russia. I think it’s because we know that Russia is friends with China, and China is seen as our number one security threat at the moment.

Pauline Hanson actually said that “Ukrainian Australians have the right to go and defend their democracy”.

Craig Kelly also condemned Putin for the Russian invasion of Ukraine when it was announced that two of the UAP’s candidates had resigned to protest NATO’s stance against Russia under Putin. Those candidates were Jefferson Earl (who was running in the Melbourne seat of Macnamara) and Sean Ambrose (who was running for the Senate in NSW). Both candidates were obviously replaced since the UAP contested every electorate in 2022.

However, back in 2018, Pauline Hanson did refer to Vladimir Putin as a “strong leader” and asked for proof of the Russian involvement in the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 (the one that was shot down by Russia over Ukraine back in 2014 and killed 298 civilians, including 38 Aussies).

The European right-wing populists have even condemned Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

It’s interesting since the European and Australian far-right aren’t particularly pro-Russian or pro-death penalty or anti-same sex marriage or even anti-abortion anymore, whereas many far-right Republicans in the US remain opposed to same-sex marriage and abortion, oppose sending arms to Ukraine and support the death penalty. They both still engage in culture wars and still strongly oppose certain transgender rights, however.

For example, Marine Le Pen who leads the National Rally (a right-wing populist party in France similar to One Nation in Australia that opposes mass immigration and is critical of many aspects of Islam) actually removed her party’s opposition to gay marriage and abortion and now they even oppose the death penalty.

@Neither Portal, Malcolm Roberts parroted pro-Russian talking points using words such as “neutrality” and “Third View” in the Russian Invasion and didn’t condemn Putin as a result. There are far-right that do back Russia like Australia First Party (they even have links with Aussie Cossack a.k.a. Simeon Boikov) not to mention the “Australian Citizens Party” which is even Pro-China and anti-Western.

Link:https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;db=CHAMBER;id=chamber%2Fhansards%2F25536%2F0187;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2F25536%2F0186%22

@Neither Portal, it is true that is some moderation for European Far-right parties such as Geert Wilder being pro-gay-rights

@Marh the ACP and the AFP are far-right though and the AFP has links to neo-Nazism too.

Also, Malcolm Roberts appears to have made a mistake. Ron Paul was never a Senator, he is a former member of the US House of Representatives from Texas who served non-consecutively from 1976 until 2013 as a Republican but later joined the Libertarian Party.

I sometimes wonder maybe in the next decade the European Far Right will become pro-climate action. There really is not much fossil fuel industry and Europe has already reduced emissions significantly so just may not be an issue worth fighting on.

@Nimalan they would already be pro-nuclear like the Australian right is.

@ NP
In the UK Labour is Pro-nuclear but what about smaller countries like Denmark, Greece where nuclear cannot be viable due its population size.

@Nimalan they wouldn’t be as supportive of it in smaller countries like Denmark, Greece and Iceland I would assume. But certainly in bigger countries like France and Germany.

Here’s the nuclear energy position of all EU parties.
https://eumatrix.eu/en/blog/nuclear-energy-political-index-where-does-each-party-stand

@Ian thanks I’ll have a look later though since I’m looking at the UK election at the moment.