2025 Australian federal election

1. id imagine if nt and tas go liberal this year that lingiari and lyons would be bankable for the coalition federally. and given what just happened in ipswich west in qld i think blair might be too.

2. Yeah John lingiari and lyons are definitely within reach for the coalition, with yes Blair being of concern for the ALP. Redistributions in VIC could finally give LIB inner city seats of Deakin and Menzies to the ALP which they hold on a wafer-thin margin. These would offset those losses

3. Blair and Moreton should be of particular concern for the ALP because they have to dump two sitting Members to meet the mandatory 50 percent female quota by 2025. At the moment the split is 6-2 in Qld and it needs to get to 4-4.

   The Senate is 2-1, so I assume that Senators Watt and Chisolm will be fine as they are both Ministers. In the 2028 election it may be a little more difficult because the ALP second Senate spot has become risky.

   I can’t see Chalmers or Dick going, leaving just Neumann and Perrett to march up to the chopping block.

4. @ Mark Yore I believe I saw an article recently talking about the possibility of Albanese intervening on Neumann’s behalf due to Labor’s concerns surrounding Blair. The margin in Moreton is much stronger now than it was going into 2022 whereas Blair barely shifted at all, so while they shouldn’t be complacent I imagine letting Perrett go is the easier of the two.

5. @Laine Except the wagons are already circling in anticipation of a decision being made to remove them. The real problem for the ALP is that Queensland is a mess and there are no shining lights on the horizon (maybe the possibility of Leichardt). Losing Terri Butler in Griffith to The Greens made the calculations even harder.

   I look forward to their time in Parliament after the preselection. I don’t think either of them will go gentle into that good night.

6. Kent Davidson. They will lose Menzies or deakin but 1 will strengthen Labor cant win both. However libs should regain Higgins and aston

7. Mark yore qld should stay 4-2 this time and I imagine will go back to 4-2 in 2028 chisholm was 3rd spot 22 so she will probably lose. Being a minister as a senator is not a guarantee

8. In 28 it should go back to 3 libs 1 on 1 Labor 1 green

9. @mark yore watt and chisholm were both only elected in 2022 so they cant be removed. id imagine if labor removed neumann and perrett because of their gender their would be alot of dissatified constituents in those 2 electorates who send albo a message by voting against labor so theyd be stuck with 4-2

   labor will lose 3-4 seats in WA alone. thats their majority gone. 1 or 2 in qld maybe. i think the coalition will lose menzies or deakin through abolition or redistribution but should get aston higgins and maybe dunkley now that its marginal and they cant rely on peta murphys personal/sympathy vote. might lose macnamara to the greens. sturt and boothby in sa are tossups but id imagine would go labor given there strong position in sa. theyll probably lose lingiari and lyons and then theres nsw which they will lose one of in those inner city seats at least and possibly bennelong paterson and parramatta at tleas to the unfavourable redistribution. but could regain fowler.

   so they could lose 15 seats gross. but if they get sturt and menzies/deakin that negates their loss to 13 and fowler makes 12 but that puts them on 66 seats. at which point they will need the greens since there will be only 8 independents (exc Katter and Sharkie) since one is bound to have there division abolished and would need to take another seat off the libs to stay in parliament. and thats assuming they can all hang on.

   the coalition on the other hand should get calare, monash back those other 14 maybe. that puts them on 73. that would mean they would likely form govt as they would get sharkie and katter at which point assuming they havent won any teal or greens seats back only need to convince 1 independent. the senate however would probide another problem given labor and the greens control 37 of the 76 votes meaning they would need the support of the entire crossbench

10. What exactly is the nature of Labor’s 50% quota? Is it based on the composition of the elected representatives, or is it about who is preselected in winnable seats?

    As the party only has control of preselections and not the outcomes of voters’ decisions, it would seem more logical for the quota to be about winnable seat preselections.

    If that is the case, one of Neumann and Perrett can be saved by putting forward a Senate ticket headlined by two women (Nita Green and one other). The rumours reported by the Australian suggest that Perrett is toast and will be replaced by a woman, but Albanese wants to hang onto Neumann, probably even more so after how badly the Ipswich West by-election went.

    If that’s not the case, and the quota is based on the composition of the elected representatives, then what is the punishment Labor imposes on itself if it can’t be fulfilled?

11. @wilson even if they could win 2 whicih they proobably wont that would still be 6-3

12. it says 50% of seats “held” by the party

13. so labor currently holds 8 seats (5 lower house, 3 upper house) so they need to preselect at least 4 women in 6 seats given 2 upper house seats held by men are not up for election this time around. 1 will be the first senate spot the other Lilley with an incumbent member. this means under the rules 2 of the 4 men (chalmers, dick, neumann or perrett) you can be damn sure it wont be chalmers

14. @John No way will Chalmers be dumped as both he and Dick have the full support of the AWU. The problem is that the ALP doesn’t have enough safe seats to meet the quota.

    @Wilson Originally in 2015 it was a sliding scale over time for “winnable” seats. Somewhere along the way it changed to “held” seats, which gives you completely different numbers. So adding a second woman to the Senate ticket won’t change things and, given the ALP Senate vote, would be unlikely to be seen as winnable.

    As to punishment, it depends who makes the decision. If their respective unions step in it could be messy. If Albanese makes a captain’s pick to keep either one of them and go against party policy then there will be discontent, even if the likely result in Blair could be to lose the seat. There’s always the option of trading off a member or senator in another state as part of the deal, but disgruntled pollies with free time on their hands are not going to play happy families.

    Neumann belongs to the ASU and Perrett belongs to the Together Union, while the AWU hold the largest chunk of Queensland Members and Senators (Chalmers, Dick, Wells and Chisolm). So there’s also a factional balancing act to be considered as well.

15. This far out some stray thoughts as a Greens tragic:

    QLD: Greens should retain their 3 and are credible enough to challenge Moreton and maybe even Lilley depending on state election results. Blair is at risk

    SA: The Dunstan by-election is a good litmus test for Sturt (for both Labor and Greens). Otherwise Labor probably retains Boothby and every other seat is a snooze fest. Adelaide isn’t a credible Greens target despite a strong vote. Noticing Sharkie isn’t getting as much traction as other teals but who’s going to take her seat?

    Vic: MacNamara entirely depends on redistribution. Labor wins Deakin and retains Aston. Menzies and La Trobe 50/50. Greens may be able to grab Wills, Cooper, Fraser with Lib preferences and a half decent campaign (Especially Wills over Palestine) but too many variables.

    WA: I think Labor will be able to sandbag most of its 2022 gains but that’s it, the new seat will be blue like the old Stirling. Greens outside chance in Perth (not Fremantle – major parties too close in vote)

    NSW: Greens take Richmond and may be able to grab something in the inner west if Albo moves to Barton. Exiting teals retain but no new ones. Labor at risk in Western Sydney but not sure where. I think Gilmore will be fine but Ward retaining Kiama really contradicted my understanding of my the area so who knows. Don’t see any Labor gains.

    Tas: Liberals gain Lyons

    NT: ALP retain both due to improved indigenous enrolment from the Voice.

    ACT: Canberra has similar dynamics to Wills, Cooper etc but unlikely to flip.

    I think Labor gets a shake and could go into minority but it won’t be enough of a loss narrative (with Labor even gaining seats) to change government or even hurt the teals much for picking Labor in balance of power.

16. @mark yore its not safe seats its “seats held” meaning current HoR and Senate seats they hold and give 2 senate spots held by men arent up for reelection that means they have to come from the lower house. which is strange they didnt field a women to sure up the 5-3 deficeit they had going into the 2022 election. but i guess they were hopeing to pickup lower house seats.

    lets introduce this scenario neumann is defeated and perrett is replaced by a candidate who loses due to the right factors. labor goes back to 4 – 2. who then faces the chop in 2028? chalmers, dick, chisholm or watt? what happens if god forbid wells is also beaten? do 2 face the chop? neumann and perrett having been in since rudd in 2007 would likely retire as the govt would being facing certain defeat in 2028 if they manafe to scrape in in 2025.

    @mark yore perrett and neumann belong to deiffent factions

17. @john il rain on your parade abit.

    QlD: the greens have never been tested against a liberal opponent federally(in a winnable seat anyway) or in qld coming from opposition though i think theyll hold griffith and yes if the member is removed you could have a chance in moreton.

    SA: yea i think Sturt is gonna get lostdue to the strong labor vote in sa and popular and competent premier. Sharkie isnt a teal shes what il classify as independent.

    VIC: macnamra is probaly lost to the libs and will go green especially if they do the prahan/caufield swap.
    Menzies/Deakin/Aston depend on redistribution. libs in my opinion will win aston and menzies or deakin depending on redistribution the one they dont win would be marginal labor. la trobe will stay liberal. wills maybe cooper i doubt while ged kerney is still there no comment on fraser. libs wont preference greens after the whoe palestine anti semitism debacle. and labor would be stupid to preference greens or enter into a coaltion with them state or federally especially if they want to hold on to jewish voters.

    WA: libs should retake pearce swan and tangey and the new seat with labor holding the redistributed hasluck. with an outside chance in cowan as it would become more favourable.

    NSW: wont get richmond this time i dont think but in 2028 especially if labor are still in govt, you wont get anything in central sydney until albo and plibersek retire. spender and stegall will hold but 1 may lose their seat to redistribution(tink) i think scamps will hold mackellar this time around but not if she backs labor in minority. gilmore will fall to the popular constance and tbh the only reason it was lost because morrison tried to parachute mundine in 2019 angering rank and file members. ward is popular is why held the seat in labor heartland he pulled both liberal and labor voters to him. agree on the no gains assesment as the redistribution in nsw is gonna favour the coaiition no matter how they try and chop it. labor to expect losses.

    TAS: agreed

    NT: Lingiari will most likely fall unsre on soloman undtil after redistribution.

    ACT: cant even be bothered

    labor will be in minority at best losing to a majority coalition at worst no way they can offset their wa and nsw loses with gains in vic thats before TAS QLD and NT. sa they have hope in 1 seat but thats not gonna save them

18. @John I’m not sure you noticed but I did say “seats held”, not “safe seats” in para 2. One of the problems the ALP has in Queensland is the extremely low number of seats they hold. This means getting candidates that meet union, faction AND affirmative action balance is really difficult.

    On top of that there’s a redistribution due right after the next election and I have a sneaking suspicion there will be some significant changes. The same applies to the State seats.

    @John The Greens three federal seats in Queensland are a mix of luck, preferences and boundaries. No-one expected the ALP vote in Griffith to collapse to a point where they finished third – on the night the AEC envelope had the count between ALP and LNP which is why we got to go home early. 🙂

    I expect Ryan will swing back to the LNP at the next election. Brisbane is a different case and came very close to being claimed by the ALP. If it wasn’t for the preferences of the Animal Justice Party (predictable) and Palmer’s UAPP (WTF) the Greens would have finished behind the ALP. While long-term demographics will probably go against The Greens, I think they’re there for a couple of election cycles.

    I think Moreton and Lilley are big asks for The Greens. Lilley will probably stay Labor and Moreton is very much in the don’t know/don’t care basket. We don’t have enough information about what is happening there and the Council results were mixed.

19. @mark yore my bad.yes the redistribution might see a new qld seat which would in my opinion slipt blair given it crosses the river. in regards to state seats ive already started my drafts based on raues numbers. yes it was aresult of a 9 year ncumbent governemtn whose problems had buit up but people didnt want labor either so they went to the greens as the alternative left wing party. in qld the libs will have a few things going for them to help . 1. duttons home turf. 2 anti govt vote. 3.most likely honeymoon period for the newly elected state liberal govt. these should all help the libs win blair ryan and brisbane. i think blair is gone no matter if they run neumann or not

20. Hey John,

    try a bit of unbiased commentary every so often – it might make the rest of us take some notice of your predictions.

21. I don’t get the prediction that all Labor’s WA gains are going to go in one fell swoop come 2025. Sure, McGowan’s popularity got many of them bigger boosts than they perhaps would have gotten otherwise, as did dislike of Morrison, and both are now gone, but with incumbency many of these new MPs would also gain a personal vote of sorts as well. I’d actually wager that Labor will hold more of their 2022 gains in WA come the 2025 election than one might expect.

22. @john……. Dutton will lose this election and retire… the libs will be struggling to find a replacement. ALP will win Dutton ‘s seat in the
    By-election. This seat is only liberal held because Dutton is the member.

23. Don’t think Dutton will make it to the Election, he’s being destabilized from within.
    I’d say a placeholder will take over until a seat can be acquired for Josh Frydenberg.

24. WL, I agree. Labor should hang on to Swan and Pearce at least. I think they’ll lose Tangney, and Hasluck could go either way.

25. I do agree WL as well. I expect there to be a correction in 2025 with a swing to the Libs. Swan should be an easy retain and has some strong Labor leaning areas. Pearce/Hasluck are mortgage belt areas so can expect a big swing but will this will be determined by the economic circumstances. Tangney is a seat you would expect the Libs to regain but there some other factors which make it more doubtful for more including a large Chinese Community/some Tealish suburbs along the Water which are hostile to Dutton.

26. Pearce includes some semi-rural areas which are Liberal.

27. @NP
    The issue is has Pearce is rapidly growing the semi-rural areas are becoming more scarce and turned into Housing estates, whatever is remaining is less influential as the suburban areas carries more voting power. Pearce can still be won by the Libs though it is not really diverse and is mortgage belt so can swing wildly but i believe that is due to bread and butter issues.

28. @high street ltes call them optimistic predictions.

    @WL im taking into account the redistribution and as i stated labor will probably retain hasluck and if you kept up o current events even federal labor is expecting loses as they were hoping to offset them with gains in QLD but even that now looks doubtful

    @mick he might not win government but he will win the election. its a hard ask to come back in one term abbot failed to win government but it was seen as a win because he came so close. i expect the same thing to happen in 2025 dutton will peg labor back to minority status at worst, or gain government through minority or majority at best. Dutton will remain on as Abbott did and spend the next 3 years tearing down the govt as Abbott did and becoming the next PM in 2028.

    @gympie Frydenburg isnt coming back

    @nimalan Pearce will lose the stronger labor areas and revert back to liberal, hasluck will become more focused on swn and stay Labor. Labor will maybe hold swan.

29. @gympie Frydenburg isnt coming back
    – – – –
    Not until a Safe Seat can be found for him.
    Meanwhile, the destabilisation continues.
    Dutton is on track to win in 2025 or even 2024, that would signal the end for Frydenburg’s ambitions.

30. Frydenburg moved to the private sector. I don’t think he’s coming back unfortunately. Some of the rank and file wants a new Liberal leader but the problem is there’s no candidate to replace him, at least not one that’s universally agreed upon. Bridget Archer is a two-term-incumbent backbencher in a marginal seat; Simon Birmingham, Michaelia Cash, Mathias Cormann, Jane Hume, etc are all Senators; Andrew Constance isn’t in Parliament (yet); etc. And I can’t think of any outsiders (state/local politicians moving to the federal level or other well-known figures contesting and winning a seat for the Liberals) that would put their hand up either. Sussan Ley’s happy being deputy leader so she won’t call a spill.

    Tony Abbott was actually more well liked than Peter Dutton is, by the way. The difference between Peter Dutton and Tony Abbott is that while they’re both from the Right faction and hold socially conservative views and staunch views on border security and immigration, many people who liked Tony Abbott don’t like Peter Dutton and it’s not necessarily because of social conservatism. Tony Abbott had clear key policies that everyday Australians cared about: abolishing the carbon tax, “stopping the boats” (Operation Sovereign Borders), etc. One may reasonably argue that Australia was indeed more conservative back then than it is now but still. Although Dutton has some policies that everyday people support (cost-of-living-related policies, nuclear energy, etc), some of his other views have been slammed by some as “out of touch” or unnecessary (though on the other hand Albo is also viewed as out of touch and increasingly woke to a degree).

31. Things that I would also watch at the upcoming federal election are of course, like any other federal election, the elections in the lead up to it, which could provide insights as to what the election might look like in each seat. Here’s 2024 in elections (so far):

    2 March: Dunkley by-election (retained by Labor with a decreased margin)
    16 March: Queensland local elections (LNP re-elected in Brisbane with a majority of wards in a landslide, Adrian Schrinner wins another term as Lord Mayor), Queensland state by-elections (Labor’s safest seat of Inala, a very safe Labor seat, was reduced to only a fairly safe margin while the safe Labor seat of Ipswich West was gained by the LNP; both by-elections saw huge swings to the LNP and against Labor)
    23 March: Tasmanian state election, Dunstan state by-election
    13 April: Cook by-election
    4 May: Tasmanian Legislative Council elections in Elwick, Hobart and Prosser
    24 August: Northern Territory general election
    14 September: NSW local elections
    TBD October: Victorian local elections
    19 October: ACT general election
    26 October: Queensland state election

    Particularly watch out for the four state/territory elections this year, which might give some insights into the potential results in the ACT, the Northern Territory, Queensland and Tasmania. If the CLP wins in the NT then Lingiari is at an extreme risk and Labor may also potentially be in trouble in Solomon. If the Liberals win in Tasmania today (which they are expected to) then Lyons is in extreme danger too, and if there’s a swing against Labor chances are there could be a swing against them in Franklin, though it wouldn’t be enough for the Liberals to win (federal Labor has held Franklin since 1993, but the state Liberals have won a plurality of the vote there at every election since 2010, when the left vote split between Labor and the Greens allowing the Liberals to win the most votes in Franklin but surprisingly not in Lyons). If the Greens gain significant ground in the inner-city suburbs of Canberra then Canberra might become a marginal or fairly safe Labor seat (currently it’s a safe Labor seat where the Greens finished second in 2022). The LNP are the favourites to win the Queensland state election, and the results there might have an impact on the results in Queensland (mostly determining whether or not the LNP gains Blair from Labor or even if they could potentially gain Rankin if there’s a big swing to the LNP in and around Logan, plus maybe Lilley, Moreton or Oxley if Labor’s vote goes down the toilet).

32. Nether, they are not defeating Chalmers, that is an LNP wet dream, not happening, the LNP are at their highpoint in QLD. Unless they are getting 60% in the TPP in the state (won’t happen) Then the best they will do is gain Blair and Ryan. That’s really all they can take.

    I also need the emphasize federal and state politics are DIFFERENT and it is mentioned way too many times on this website…. when the LNP kept winning landslides in QLD federally. Labor won the state elections around the same time.

    Now unpopular state governments can affect seats federally. (It is what almost cost Bob Hawke the 1990 election) Victoria was a bloodbath for Labor in 1990. But to say that a big win for the LNP this year means LNP gain seats is ludicrous and fantasy. You do realize if Crisafulli makes unpopular decisions he could be trailing Labor in the polls by mid-next year? Which will most likely also have a trickle down affect federally.

    The state-federal overlap is not as strong as you see it. But it can flip close races. But the seats you speak of are not flipping with an LNP gov in Brisbane.

    I also didn’t realize the Tasmanian election was today, Even if the Liberals win more seats, The crossbench may refuse to support Rockliff and force him out, JLN could support Labor as well as the 2 independents if there isn’t more elected. It will be a messy ride, But one thing is for sure, Rockliff is not getting his way on the stadium. If Labor don’t get into gov, Dean Winter is the next Chris Minns and will easily win the 2027/2028 state election.

    Dunstan will be Liberal held. but please, PLEASE don’t read into it too much about Sturt prospects please. They are NOT the same elections.

33. @John While there might be a new seat it’s also an automatic redistribution because we’re at the 7 year mark. But it will be done after the next election. We will also have a State redistribution which will need to be done in 2025 as well.

    In the event of a new seat it will be on the Sunshine Coast, probably pulling Noosa out of Wide Bay which is an odd fit anyway. Sunshine Coast growth is much more consistent across the whole area.

34. @mark the Qld state redistribution starts in dec

35. im pretty sure NSW will get its 47th seat back after the next determination as its at the higher end of 46 wheres VIC was closer to the lower end of 38 and almost lost 2. if albo goes early it will combine wentworth and warringah so the new seat would just split those 2 again

36. @John (it’s confusing with John and john BTW). I can’t see a start date on the ECQ website and given that the previous redistributions were 1999, 2008 and 2017 I’m not hopeful in them getting started this year. They may well issue the notice but everything then closes down for the holidays. I’m positive it will be in place for the 2028 election though.

    In the event of a change of government there may be a delay in the redistribution process while an Inquiry into the ECQ is held.

37. Fun fact: In 2022, One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition over Labor in every electorate, but UAP preferences went to Labor over the Coalition in a few seats even though most UAP preferences in most seats went to the Coalition over Labor.

    The seats where UAP preferences went mostly to Labor over the Coalition (I don’t know why) were Ballarat (VIC), Blaxland (NSW), Canning (WA), Forrest (WA), Greenway (NSW), Jagajaga (VIC), Macarthur (NSW), Scullin (VIC), Spence (SA) and Swan (WA).

    The only seat where One Nation preferences flowed to Labor over the Coalition was Gorton (VIC), not sure why though.

    Source: AEC website.

38. Nether Portal, could that be down to what the UAP how to vote cards indicated? At the 2022 Federal Election I was handing out Liberal HTV cards at Wendouree West in Ballarat, and the UAP volunteer seemingly had no idea that they preferenced Labor above the Liberals in this seat until I pointed it out to him.

39. @Mikey that could be the case but One Nation preferenced Labor in some seats with Liberal MPs from the Moderate faction in response to the Liberals preferencing the JLN in Tasmania. For example One Nation preferenced Labor in Bass (Bridget Archer is from the Moderate faction) but preferenced the Liberals in Braddon (Gavin Pearce is from the Right faction). However, One Nation preferences in basically every seat nationwide flowed to the Coalition over Labor, even in seats where the HTV cards preferenced against them. As for the UAP they preferenced every incumbent in WA last, but even then most preferences still flowed to the Liberals over Labor except in Canning, Forrest and Swan.

40. @ NP
    Scullin/Gorton had anti-lockdown backlash so those who voted UAP/ONP were more of a protest vote rather than the true demographic that votes ONP. The demographic that votes for ONP tends to be older wealthier and whiter than Australia as a whole albeit less educated. Seats such as Gorton, Scullin, Calwell etc are younger, less wealthy and more diverse .

41. Perrett got a 7.19% swing afainst a male LNP candidate in 2022, The Greens female candidate got 20% of the Primary vote, Perrett only won narrowly against Angela Owen in 2019, she’s lost Calamvale for Liberal at the March 16 BCC Election, perhaps they need to move Perrett on before he loses the Seat to a female candidate from either Liberal or The Greens?
    Shayne Neumann is a local, there are many people of German ancestry in Blair.
    Liberals ran one of those people in Ipswich West on 16. March and won a big swing.
    I’d say unless they can find a candidate with similar background to Neumann, switching himout for a woman is a certain loss.

42. @ Gympie
    I dont know if Perrett has a personal vote to begin with. Shayne Neumann probably is a good fit for Blair he is from the Conservative wing of the Labor party.

43. This page should he renamed to “Next Australian federal election” as it is not guaranteed to be held in 2025, if the government decides to go early. Or if there is a national crisis in 2025, the parliament with 3/4 majority or so may vote to delay the election which could cause it to be in 2026 or 2027.

    Obviously that scenario is very unlikely outside a war, but the point is, the election is not guaranteed to be in 2025, at least until when it cannot possibly be held in 2024 anymore (Early Nov would be latest election call)

44. Daniel T – When is the window you see that an election would be held in this calendar year?

    https://antonygreen.com.au/when-will-the-next-federal-election-be-will-it-be-held-early/
    “For the reasons I’ve set out, everything points to the government going full term to mid-May 2025. Writs won’t be issued until after the WA election, and with Easter 2025 set for mid-April, a pre-Easter election would need to have the date announced in the week after the WA election.”

    First possible Fed. – 3rd August 2024 (Let’s take it as 99% likely that the HoR and Senate will be held together.)
    NT – 24th August
    NSW Local – 14th September
    Final determination of WA redistribution – 24th September (indicative)
    Final determination of NSW redistribution – 10th October (indicative)
    Final determination of VIC redistribution – 17th October (indicative)
    ACT – 18th October
    QLD – 26th October
    Final determination of NT redistribution – 4th March 2025 (indicative)
    WA State – 8th March
    Last possible Fed. – mid-May 2025

    If an election was held before the redistibutions were finalised there would be related mini-redistributions with “new” seats of Warringah-Wentworth (NSW), Chisholm-Higgins (VIC), Cowan (WA), Cowan-Perth (WA) and Perth (WA). I think that’s the structure.

45. @nimalan:
    Perrett was an apparatchik, came in with Rudd’s victory. Doubt his personal following would be more than average after 16 years as Member, he does come across as Flakey.
    See here, he knocked himself inconscious laughing at VEEP:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-04/federal-mp-laughed-so-hard-at-veep-he-choked/8496936
    A credible local female candidate would do at least as well, and Milton Dick could be swapped out for similar, solving the quota problem for a while.

46. @Gympie agree replacing Perett with a younger female and more energetic MP will probably booth Labor Primary vote in Moreton.
    With regards to Oxley i am thinking Leili Golafshani who ran in Jamboree ward recently could be the candidate, there is a growing Iranian Community in the Centenary suburbs. If the gender quota is defined as winnable they could argue that Labor can win a second Senate seat and maybe Leichardt as well with a female candidate to help meet the gender quota

47. Daniel

    “ Or if there is a national crisis in 2025, the parliament with 3/4 majority or so may vote to delay the election which could cause it to be in 2026 or 2027.”

    I should like to know where you heard this nonsense. Such a change would require a referendum, and would never pass.

    Section 28 of the constitution:
    “Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first meeting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General.”

    Australian elections were held during the first and second world wars without interruption.

48. *boost Labor primary vote

49. @nimalan Leichhardt is a hard sell as winnable, Entsch won or tied all booths bar the TI. booths, Bamaga and Cairns CBD. There were 7 candidates of the Left up against him and he still won by 6,500 on the TCP in a heavy Liberal loss nationally.
    His wife is running this time, if Labor haven’t kept their promises from 2022 on the Cairns Marine Precinct and the Kuranda Range Road, they’d need an Albanese landslide to win.

50. Fair Point @Gympie
    As Entsch is retiring and being demographically more Favourable to seats such as Flynn, Capricornia etc not based on resources or agriculture i thought it was a better prospect for Labor.

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