Chisholm – Australia 2025

ALP 3.3%

Incumbent MP
Carina Garland, since 2022.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Chisholm covers northern parts of the Monash council area along with small parts of the Whitehorse, Boroondara and Stonnington council areas. Suburbs include Ashburton East, Ashwood,  Burwood, Burwood East, Blackburn South, Chadstone, Glen Iris, Malvern East, Mount Waverley and Glen Waverley.

Redistribution
Chisholm changed quite dramatically, shifting west to take in Ashburton, Malvern East and Glen Iris from the abolished seat of Higgins and small area from Kooyong. Chisholm lost Box Hill to Menzies and Notting Hill to Hotham. These changes cut the Labor margin from 6.4% to 3.3%. About 64.5% of the enrolment of the new Chisholm was already contained in Chisholm prior to the redistribution, with almost 30% of enrolment coming from Higgins. The old seat of Higgins was cut into pieces, but Chisholm took in the largest share of Higgins, with about one third of the old seat being moved into Chisholm.

History
Chisholm was created for the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. For the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the seat was relatively safe for the Liberal Party. Boundary changes saw the seat become a marginal seat in the early 1980s. It became stronger for Labor in the 2000s but was lost to the Liberal Party from 2016 to 2022.

The seat was first won in Kent Hughes for the Liberal Party. Hughes was a former Deputy Premier of Victoria who had enlisted in the military at the outbreak of the Second World War, and ended up captured as part of the fall of Singapore and spent four years as a prisoner of war before returning to state politics, and moving to Canberra in 1949.

Hughes was chairman of the organising committee for the Melbourne Olympics in 1956, but after the Olympics was dropped from the ministry, and sat on the backbenches until his death in 1970.

Tony Staley won the 1970 by-election for the Liberal Party. He served as a junior minister in the Fraser government from 1976 until his retirement from politics in 1980. He went on to serve as Federal President of the Liberal Party.

The Liberal Party’s Graham Harris held on to Chisholm in 1980, but with a much smaller margin then those won by Hughes or Staley. He was defeated in 1983 by the ALP’s Helen Mayer.

Mayer was re-elected in 1984, but lost the seat in 1987 to the Liberal Party’s Michael Wooldridge. Wooldridge quickly became a senior Liberal frontbencher, and served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1993 to 1994. Wooldridge was appointed Minister for Health upon the election of the Howard government in 1996. Wooldridge moved to the safer seat of Casey in 1998, and retired in 2001.

Chisholm was won in 1998 by the ALP’s Anna Burke, who held the seat for six terms. Anna Burke served as Speaker from 2012 to 2013. Burke retired in 2016, and Liberal candidate Julia Banks was the only Liberal in the country to gain a seat off Labor in winning Chisholm.

Julia Banks announced she would not run for re-election as a Liberal following the removal of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister in 2018, and a few months later resigned from the party to sit as an independent. Banks went on to run as an independent unsuccessfully for the Liberal seat of Flinders in outer Melbourne.

Chisholm was narrowly won in 2019 by Liberal candidate Gladys Liu. Liu held the seat for one term, but lost in 2022 to Labor’s Carina Garland.

Candidates

Assessment
Chisholm swung very strongly to Labor in 2022, when areas with large communities of Chinese-Australian voters swung hard against the Liberal Party. But Chisholm has been redrawn significantly since the last election, with strongly Chinese suburbs like Box Hill replaced with parts of the former seat of Higgins. The chart above shows that the new boundaries are more right-leaning, but would have been even more right-leaning in the past. On the new boundaries, Labor would not have won Chisholm even in 2007, whereas in reality they held the seat from 1998 until 2016.

But the newly-added areas are much less strong for the Liberal Party than they were when the area was represented by Peter Costello in the 2000s, and they no longer have an incumbency benefit. Garland will have a fight on her hands to be re-elected but incumbency should help her.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Gladys Liu Liberal 35,038 36.3 -7.7 39.2
Carina Garland Labor 38,692 40.1 +3.8 34.8
Sarah Newman Greens 12,130 12.6 +1.9 14.1
Independent 2.4
Melanie Kempson United Australia 2,295 2.4 +0.2 2.2
Ethelyn King Liberal Democrats 1,620 1.7 +1.7 2.0
Rod Whitfield Animal Justice 1,122 1.2 -0.1 1.1
Dominique Murphy Independent 1,590 1.6 +1.7 1.1
Aaron Tyrrell One Nation 1,377 1.4 +1.4 1.0
Thomas Stanfield Hinch’s Justice Party 946 1.0 -0.5 0.6
Anthea Antonie Federation Party 567 0.6 +0.6 0.5
Wayne Tseng Independent 757 0.8 +0.8 0.5
Others 0.4
Ryan Dare Citizens Party 384 0.4 +0.4 0.2
Informal 4,763 4.7 +0.4

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Carina Garland Labor 54,448 56.4 +6.9 53.3
Gladys Liu Liberal 42,070 43.6 -6.9 46.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Chisholm have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Monash council area have been grouped as Central and South-East. Those in the Boroondara and Stonnington council areas have been grouped as West, while those in the Whitehorse council area have been grouped as North.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.3% in the west to almost 60% in the centre and north.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.1% in the south-east to 18.2% in the west.

Voter group GRN prim ALP 2PP Total votes % of votes
West 18.2 51.3 18,333 17.1
South-East 10.1 54.4 13,498 12.6
Central 14.1 59.8 10,660 10.0
North 14.8 59.7 5,369 5.0
Pre-poll 13.9 52.6 33,408 31.2
Other votes 13.2 51.1 25,780 24.1

Election results in Chisholm at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, the Greens and independent candidates.

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101 COMMENTS

  4. On a possible Dutton successor – Geez its slim pickins’
    Ley – serious lightweight
    Taylor – ditto though he would fancy himself
    Tehan – has to hold his seat but …… deputy possibly
    Hastie – good media performer and seems to have some intellectual grunt. Would be interesting to see him in a domestic role
    Sukkar – deputy possibly …. would fancy himself as well
    Hume – wrong house but is a good media performer
    Bragg, Paterson – both in wrong house and both have intellectual ballast

    So on balance – Hastie as well. Agree with John above, unless Libs lost badly Dutton probably there for a while.

  6. @Darth Vader that’s true and not true.

    The title of Opposition Leader has to be given to someone in the lower house, which on the federal level is the House of Reps. However, anyone can be a party leader, though for the major parties they would have to choose someone who is at least running in a lower house seat otherwise that person can’t be Prime Minister, Premier or Chief Minister.

    For example, when Campbell Newman was still Lord Mayor of Brisbane but was preselected for the seat of Ashgrove (which he won in the LNP’s 2012 landslide), while he ousted John Paul-Langbroek as LNP leader, former Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney succeeded JPL as Opposition Leader until the LNP won the election.

  8. John Gorton was elected PM from the Senate but it would not have happened if Harold had not gone for a swim …….
    A highly unique situation ..

    In Canada it seems more common – Brian Mulroney was elected from outside and the parachuted into a safe seat in a by election and then into a Quebec (his home province) seat at the election.
    Mark Carney is running for the post Trudeau leadership and is not in parliament – with the Liberals polling disastrously it is hard to see where he could get a seat that he could actually win.

    Closer to home, Barry Unsworth succeeded Neville Wran from the Legislative Council in 1986. An MP stood aside for him and it almost came unstuck when he won Rockdale by only 52 votes. These days the risk of coming unstuck in a volatile climate is probably too high.

  9. Agree Redistributed and NP, John Gorton was only ‘acting’ PM or leader whilst still a Senator. He quickly moved into the seat of Higgins within the standard 3-month timeframe permitted for a member to serve as Leader whilst not being a member of the House.

  10. See the answers to my question:
    Most not up to Dutton ‘s. Job
    Maybe Hastie from wa
    So far only john Curtin was pm from wa

  11. I think Angus Taylor might be too. The treasurer is more often then not the no 2 man and therefore is in a position to have the numbers

  13. @Dan M I’m in agreement with that I think they should win this seat based on the swing expected in Vic being higher then the margin here

  17. To anyone living in the seat: are the demographics in Chisholm somewhat similar to Bennelong? E.g. lots of upper middle class older voters, high proportion of aspirational Asian voters who tend to vote Liberal etc.

    Seems like it may face the same fate as Bennelong this election if that’s the case

  18. Wombater
    Sort of – but there is nothing to compare to the extreme wealth of Hunters Hill, Woolwich or Longueville. There is more Housing Commission (or post Housing Commission if you get what I mean) in Chisholm than Bennelong. Once you get into Glen Waverley there is quite a big Indian community. Glen Waverley is a bit like Carlingford and Wheelers Hill more upmarket than that. I don’t like Sydney / Melbourne suburb comparisons because there is so much that is intangibly different. Once you are west of Warrigal Road it is a bit like the difference between Lane Cove and North Ryde. I can see both seats going to the Libs.

  19. @redistributed Great to hear your insights. Given the current situation facing both seats, it seems natural to put the two side by side. Thank you 🙂

  22. So many people seem to be writing this off for Labor given its small margin and the larger than average swing expected in Victoria, but looking at the swings in similar inner city, wealthier areas in Brisbane, Perth at recent state elections, even when there are swings against Labor they are tending to be smaller in this kind of area.

    I think this will be a narrow Labor retain.

  24. @adam I totally agree with your statement about the swings in the inner city being very small towards the liberals. The only caveat here is that only part of the electorate (ex Higgins) would really be considered inner city. As well as the fact Katie Allen who actually out performed the Liberal party when compared to the liberal party in the senate is the candidate and is very well known in that specific area. This is a naturally liberal seat, it won’t be a big marginal but it’s a liberal gain.

    Moreover the sophomore bump here won’t be that strong as Carina has basically been invisible and Katie Allen has a much higher profile as the ex member for Higgins but potentially even with the old Chisholm due to her profile firstly as a paediatrician and her doing lots of media during Covid.

  25. I don’t quite buy into the picture painted by the last Redbridge of Victoria being uniquely bad for Labor. State samples are going to be smaller with bigger margins of error so I don’t think hasty conclusions should be drawn. It could be that there’s some negative effect from the state government but the Federal focus will appear during the campaign. And in particular for a seat like this, it’s hard to see Dutton being a positive plus Labor has been doing very well within inner urban suburbs. So even if Victoria as a whole isn’t great for Labor I would be inclined to think this seat will hold.

  26. Also “based on reports Labor have given up”, John? Where do you get your reports from, Daily Mail?

    The idea of Labor giving up here is pure wishful thinking.

  27. im not sure im pretty sure someone posted something about it here. also when you say the inner suburbs im pretty sure that applies to the west and north in labors hearlland. the eastern suburbs have usually been pretty reliable for the libs and they should recover from their bottomed out vote in 2022.

  28. @adda it was reported in a herald sun article about Redbridge polling that they had given up on Aston, McEwen and Chisholm.

  29. Chisholm and the rest of the inner east are the educated suburbs that have been trending Labor for every state and federal election over the last decade – that pattern isn’t about to stop. Couple that with the sophomore boost and this almost certainly will have a lower swing than Victoria’s statewide swing. There is every reason to believe they can hold on.

    I don’t know what article this is but it’s a patently absurd claim to say Labor has given up. This is one of the most crucial seats of the election.

  31. I agree it’s ridiculous to say Labor have given up, obviously they haven’t and won’t. However Chisholm is not inner city, they won it in 2016 despite losing around 20 seats and the local member is invisible (I know I live here). The libs are favourites here hands down.

  32. Inner urban isn’t inner city, it’s the suburbs that go up to the middle ring. Labor has consistently outperformed over every recent election in each capital city for suburbs of that profile, and especially the same demographics as Chisholm – established, inner-urban, diverse. I would compare this to Reid in NSW. And 2016 specifically is a high water mark for the Liberals in seats like this – where they have afterwards been losing ground.

  34. I agree Adda that the fact the Liberals overall lost around 20 seats in 2016 isn’t particularly relevant, because despite the Liberals having roughly a -3% 2PP swing nationally and even about -1.5% in Victoria overall, the Liberals had swings TO them in Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein, Chisholm, Melbourne and Melbourne Ports (Macnamara). It was actually their best election in inner-urban Melbourne in recent memory and I’d also describe that election as a “high watermark” for them (in the modern era anyway) in this particular profile of seat.

  35. this seat has been massively redistrubed though due to the redistribution abolishing neighbouring higgins

  36. I’ll just acknowledge that my use of “inner urban” may be disputed. Chisholm starts where I would consider inner urban and ends in middle-ring territory – that is a band which I would say shares the characteristics I mentioned.

  37. @Adda, I think you will find the economic position is uniquely bad in Victoria, in terms of business closures etc. On a fundamentals level you would expect Victoria to swing harder than the rest of the country, notwithstanding the inner/middle/outer suburbs divide.

  38. The fact that Chisholm swung to the Libs in 2016, helps support the claim that it’ll swing less in 2025. In 2016 the Libs had a moderate Lib leader and did very well with highly educated voters, particularly in the inner city, after getting rid of Turnbull this has been a demographic they have clearly struggled with federally and on state levels. If the Libs had a moderate leader, maybe you could make an argument this trend would reverse, but with Dutton I don’t think so.

    If you get a 50-50 result in Vic, which is a big if as it’d be their best result since 2004, you’d get a statewide swing of 4.83%. Chisholm is currently on 3.3%, with the good trend for them in this area, personal vote for their MP, I think it’s very possible Labor does 1.5% better here vs the rest of the state so Labor could hold here. Right now I’d predict a Labor retain.

  39. It has to be remembered that Chisholm was vacant in 2016 on the retirement of Anna Burke. She was very hard working and very popular and she had built up a good personal vote so any swing would have been magnified. And in 2016 Chisholm was definitely not ‘inner urban’. Comparisons with 2016 are drawing a long bow indeed.

  40. For the benefit of those who haven’t got access behind the paywall, the chart shows the swings in Chisholm in 2016:
    – On the 2016 boundaries, there was a 2.8% swing from Labor 1.6% to Liberal 1.2%.
    – On the 2025 boundaries, there was a 1.0% swing from Liberal 5.3% to Liberal 6.3%.

    So yes both sets of boundaries swung but the old Chisholm much more than the current one. It shows how much the old Higgins has changed that on the new boundaries the new Chisholm is Labor 3.3%, 9.6% to the left from 2016.

  41. The current boundaries are very different than in 2016 so are the circumstances, I wasn’t comparing the two seats, I was simply pointing out that saying that area has universally swung to the left is not entirely accurate considering 2013 won by labor then liberals then liberals again and then labor.

    Ultimately it’s not an inner city seat, it’s suburban. Even the parts of old Higgins are closer to Glen Waverley in terms of SES then Malvern and Toorak. There’s a reason that in the redistribution East Malvern and Glen Iris didn’t just go into Kooyong.

    The Chinese vote swung so heavily to Labor, even the naturally conservative Chinese voters switched. The rhetoric and climate has tempered since then and I would think a significant chunk of voters swing back.

    Add in the fact that’s there’s only a small amount of renters and a lot of people with mortgage stress, I would say there’s a pretty compelling argument that the liberals will win here.

  42. Imagine an alternate universe where the old Higgins remained intact instead of abolished. Would the sitting Labor MP, Michelle Ananda-Rajah, have beaten Katie Allen?

  43. @Votante In an ideal world Michelle Ananda-Rajah would probably be the one contesting Chisholm with Carina Garland contesting Menzies (which is where the northern part of the old Chisholm went) which would’ve settled the dust. Ananda-Rajah is more well known in the western part of the new Chisholm (e.g. the Malvern, Camberwell half) whereas Garland’s strengths are in Box Hill and Burwood as indicated by the strong Labor margins in those areas as opposed to the old Higgins booths.

  45. This was mentioned in the Aston about the local member chat but some people here have said that Carina Garland has been invisible where others has said she has said she is everywhere. I think its worth remembering that at the end of the day there are so many doors and events you’ll do to meet people and you’ll still miss someone or an area of your electorate.

  46. In the alternative universe, I think Katie Allen would win Higgins quite comfortably. Labor would be at real risk of falling to third but the Libs vote would go up so no chance of Greens winning.

  47. The Higgins result, if there was no redistribution, would’ve hinged on local campaigning and Michelle Anada-Rajah’s personal engagement and popularity. I don’t believe Dutton is that popular in Stonnington LGA as well as Glen Iris. They might be favourable to Katie Allen as a candidate.

  48. The new East-West alignment of Chisholm would be a Liberal-leaning seat compared to the current North-South alignment which is bellwether

  49. I wonder how much of the last Victorian redistribution will survive the next. Is Chisholm destined to stretch from Malvern to Glen Waverley for the foreseeable future? Toorak to be part of Kooyong? South Yarra to be part of Melbourne? Whenever I look at the new maps for Victoria, it’s as if Higgins is begging to be restored. The way they’ve sliced up Stonnington just doesn’t look stable or justifiable long-term.

  50. The recent retributions really messed up a lot of boundaries so hopefully there is some sort of major overhaul with a new seat however I doubt they’ll put a new seat unless the population explodes through there between now and the next federal election it will most likely be in the outer suburbs. Chisholm will probably be pushed where Higgins was and Menzies will replace Chisholm currently is.

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