Chisholm – Australia 2025

The redistributions are really interesting as Labor won’t have held it here in 2007 & 2010.

Booths labelled West are increasingly Elite (West of Warrigal Road).

Interesting seat could go either way

West of Warrigal Road (Glen Iris, Camberwell, Ashburton, Malvern East) and east of Springvale Road (eastern Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill) are the most affluent parts. Burwood, Burwood East, Mount Waverley and western Glen Waverley are more middle class, but desirable. Box Hill South, Ashwood and Chadstone are lower middle class with public housing. Ashburton has public housing, but is mostly upper middle class.

Katie Allen – despite the preselection controversy – has been campaigning hard, but Carina Garland is strangely keeping a low profile. I’m favoring Allen to win the seat.

@Ian I think Dutton is on the verge of not only winning Chisholm but the election. I’m my opinion it’s probly about 50/50 on who forms govt atm. But I’m saying Dutton got about a 5% chance if majority. And a 45% chance of minority. The other 50% is a labor minority. Pretty much 0 on labor majority. If Albo can’t reset I think Duttons gonna run him down tbh.

Honestly I would say Labor are favourites here.

This is a seat the Libs have to win for any chance of Dutton becoming PM with either a minority or majority government. The redistribution made this seat a lot more friendlier to the Libs but to win they will have to make a recovery among Chinese voters.

@agreed. If they aren’t winning here they won’t be in govt

I’m not sure why someone would say the Labor Candidate is keeping a low profile. Quite the opposite! Very active. Wonder why you’d think that? Do you actually live in the electorate?

I’m not sure why the person above has suggested the Labor member is low profile. Do you live here? She’s very active! Nobody knows who the Liberal is. It will be very close here.

@Jane Yes I have seen Carina Garland out and about quite a bit in the community if social media’s anything to go by. Definitely in campaigning mode already even if the election hasn’t been called. Yes she’s comparatively low profile in the sense that she’s not in the news all the time like Josh Burns (which could be a good or bad thing, depending on how you look at it) but Labor’s definitely not taking this seat for granted given they need this to stay in government.

On the other hand, Labor’s been slack in Deakin and Menzies which they should be targeting and attacking, especially given the redistribution has helped them greatly. Why they’re not throwing everything at those two seats (along with Sturt and a few of the others), but fluffing around the likes of Gilmore or Paterson is beyond me.

@tommo likely they are busy using there resources defending seats as the swing is coming against them

Jane, I live in the newly added “west of Warrigal Road” area where Allen is known, but Garland is not. It will very likely be close, so Allen should win the “west of Warrigal Road” area and Garland should win her good areas. Sorry, if I wasn’t clear enough before.

I personally would say that Garland is very quiet. People that I know call her the ‘invisible member’. I have seen her once since the election. Furthermore, except for annual calendars, I have only received one thing in the mailbox. That was after I was redistributed out of Chisholm. My state member is on a 12% margin and is far more visible and active than Carina Garland has been, from my point of view. In addition to this, Katie Allen has opened a massive office and is out very often in mount Waverley, an area which I would say is not nessicarily her strongest. For this reason, as much as it pains me, I would tip the Liberals to win this. However, other factors including sophomore swing and the Dutton effect will affect that.

Pity there isn’t an independent. I like what Monique Ryan has done for Kooyong.

I’ve heard from some people that there is a voices for Chisholm group looking for a candidate. They don’t expect them to do well, but simply will give people options.

@Paul Waller what exactly has Monique Ryan done for Kooyong? Last time I checked she’s actually been unpopular in Kooyong and isn’t really a teal but rather just Labor/Greens lite.

I think it would usually be more beneficial to be represented by a cross bencher than an opposition MP, because cross benchers are more likely to work with the government to represent the seat’s views, secure amendments to bills etc looking at each issue on its merit whereas opposition MPs’ main goal is to oppose and play politics and they’re really quite powerless.

Teal will not win here as alp and liberal votes will both be too high and squeeze them out

Nah Chisholm will clearly be a very close ALP v LIB race.

Na a teal has got no chance here. The liberal and Labor vote is too high and they wouldn’t make the 2cp. He’ll they May not even finish third. I expect a very close race between Garland and Allen. Margin around 1 %.

A teal would finish 4th here like they did in Caulfield & Brighton in the state election.

Teals rely on a large percentage of Labor & Greens voters strategically voting for them because they are the best chance of defeating a Liberal in an otherwise safe Liberal seat. They don’t get that strategic vote in marginals that Labor are competitive in or in the case of Chisholm, already hold.

the latest newspoll has the coalition 50-50 in victoria. that would put seats like chisholm and mcewen in the liberal column and seata like dunkley and bruce under serious threat

https://youtu.be/1pBfZwdPgj0?si=4KnXP1sMknEOMaI3&t=3916

When Katie Allen (now Liberal candidate for this seat) gave this interview, I suspect that she had no intention of running again (she says as much in the clip). Now that she is running, quotes like this could be exploited by Labor to highlight disunity of thought within the Coalition. However, Allen is now towing the nuclear line on her social media. She will probably win the seat anyway, but that is how I would be playing it.

@Douglas being pro-nuclear isn’t a problem at all. Most people are pro-nuclear including myself.

James Griffin, the former NSW Environment Minister and the incumbent state Liberal MP for Manly said he would be open to looking at it. He was re-elected in the seat of Manly in 2023 with over 54% TPP despite it being in the tealest parts of Warringah federally.

The other benefit of Dutton soft losing the election and having all the teals and independents prop up labor is the liberals could use that as a precipice to wipe them out.

All of this discussion regarding Teals propping up a Labor government and then getting wiped out is all predicated on the 2025 cross bench being like Windsor, Oakeshott and Wilkie giving effective csrte blanche to the Gillard government. For starters, Wilkie says he wouldn’t do it again and the other Teals would have more political nous than doing it again. For starters Helen Haines would know that it would be political suicide and probsbly Kate Chaney too. If the Teals took the view that they voted to form a Labor Government and then all bets are off I don’t think they would be punished by their electors. However, every piece of legislation would need to be negotiated in both houses so getting things achieved would be difficult. The Albanese Government already gives the impression of inertia – having inertia cast upon it would probably be fatal.

The teals are in parliament because the liberals lost the middle ground. Dutton helps them to continue. Of the cross bench the only sure vote for the lnp is Katter and I would not like to have to rely upon him. To assume the independents etc will only vote with their long-term electoral interest is wide of the mark

Nuclear is not the way to go problems of waste storage and potential accidents exist in any form of Nuclear.
But the Dutton version of Nuclear is not properly costed or worked out and has at least a 10 year lag before implementation.

Should the next parliament be hung, it is not inconceivable that there could a change of government within the term without an election occurring. Similar to 1941 or the first decade of the Federation.

I think for Independent voters, minority government is the ideal situation. Forcing the major parties to negotiate on every piece of legislation and then the member voting on what is best for their communities. I think that would strengthen the independents position not weaken it.

1941 was very different the 2 independents were supporters of Menzies and were upset by his dumping.
Also Australia was in the midst of a national emergency with ww2

This and Reid (nsw) are similar expect.labor to retain both

@mick i xpect reid to be retained on a reduced margin but chisholm i reckon is lineball. the margin there is now within the expected swing so Katie Allen is still in with a shot in my opinion