ALP 3.3%
Incumbent MP
Carina Garland, since 2022.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Chisholm covers northern parts of the Monash council area along with small parts of the Whitehorse, Boroondara and Stonnington council areas. Suburbs include Ashburton East, Ashwood, Burwood, Burwood East, Blackburn South, Chadstone, Glen Iris, Malvern East, Mount Waverley and Glen Waverley.
Redistribution
Chisholm changed quite dramatically, shifting west to take in Ashburton, Malvern East and Glen Iris from the abolished seat of Higgins and small area from Kooyong. Chisholm lost Box Hill to Menzies and Notting Hill to Hotham. These changes cut the Labor margin from 6.4% to 3.3%. About 64.5% of the enrolment of the new Chisholm was already contained in Chisholm prior to the redistribution, with almost 30% of enrolment coming from Higgins. The old seat of Higgins was cut into pieces, but Chisholm took in the largest share of Higgins, with about one third of the old seat being moved into Chisholm.
History
Chisholm was created for the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. For the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the seat was relatively safe for the Liberal Party. Boundary changes saw the seat become a marginal seat in the early 1980s. It became stronger for Labor in the 2000s but was lost to the Liberal Party from 2016 to 2022.
The seat was first won in Kent Hughes for the Liberal Party. Hughes was a former Deputy Premier of Victoria who had enlisted in the military at the outbreak of the Second World War, and ended up captured as part of the fall of Singapore and spent four years as a prisoner of war before returning to state politics, and moving to Canberra in 1949.
Hughes was chairman of the organising committee for the Melbourne Olympics in 1956, but after the Olympics was dropped from the ministry, and sat on the backbenches until his death in 1970.
Tony Staley won the 1970 by-election for the Liberal Party. He served as a junior minister in the Fraser government from 1976 until his retirement from politics in 1980. He went on to serve as Federal President of the Liberal Party.
The Liberal Party’s Graham Harris held on to Chisholm in 1980, but with a much smaller margin then those won by Hughes or Staley. He was defeated in 1983 by the ALP’s Helen Mayer.
Mayer was re-elected in 1984, but lost the seat in 1987 to the Liberal Party’s Michael Wooldridge. Wooldridge quickly became a senior Liberal frontbencher, and served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1993 to 1994. Wooldridge was appointed Minister for Health upon the election of the Howard government in 1996. Wooldridge moved to the safer seat of Casey in 1998, and retired in 2001.
Chisholm was won in 1998 by the ALP’s Anna Burke, who held the seat for six terms. Anna Burke served as Speaker from 2012 to 2013. Burke retired in 2016, and Liberal candidate Julia Banks was the only Liberal in the country to gain a seat off Labor in winning Chisholm.
Julia Banks announced she would not run for re-election as a Liberal following the removal of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister in 2018, and a few months later resigned from the party to sit as an independent. Banks went on to run as an independent unsuccessfully for the Liberal seat of Flinders in outer Melbourne.
Chisholm was narrowly won in 2019 by Liberal candidate Gladys Liu. Liu held the seat for one term, but lost in 2022 to Labor’s Carina Garland.
- Katie Allen (Liberal)
- Kath Davies (Independent)
- Carina Garland (Labor)
- Peter Jones (Family First)
- Tim Randall (Greens)
Assessment
Chisholm swung very strongly to Labor in 2022, when areas with large communities of Chinese-Australian voters swung hard against the Liberal Party. But Chisholm has been redrawn significantly since the last election, with strongly Chinese suburbs like Box Hill replaced with parts of the former seat of Higgins. The chart above shows that the new boundaries are more right-leaning, but would have been even more right-leaning in the past. On the new boundaries, Labor would not have won Chisholm even in 2007, whereas in reality they held the seat from 1998 until 2016.
But the newly-added areas are much less strong for the Liberal Party than they were when the area was represented by Peter Costello in the 2000s, and they no longer have an incumbency benefit. Garland will have a fight on her hands to be re-elected but incumbency should help her.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gladys Liu | Liberal | 35,038 | 36.3 | -7.7 | 39.2 |
| Carina Garland | Labor | 38,692 | 40.1 | +3.8 | 34.8 |
| Sarah Newman | Greens | 12,130 | 12.6 | +1.9 | 14.1 |
| Independent | 2.4 | ||||
| Melanie Kempson | United Australia | 2,295 | 2.4 | +0.2 | 2.2 |
| Ethelyn King | Liberal Democrats | 1,620 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 2.0 |
| Rod Whitfield | Animal Justice | 1,122 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 1.1 |
| Dominique Murphy | Independent | 1,590 | 1.6 | +1.7 | 1.1 |
| Aaron Tyrrell | One Nation | 1,377 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.0 |
| Thomas Stanfield | Hinch’s Justice Party | 946 | 1.0 | -0.5 | 0.6 |
| Anthea Antonie | Federation Party | 567 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.5 |
| Wayne Tseng | Independent | 757 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.5 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Ryan Dare | Citizens Party | 384 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.2 |
| Informal | 4,763 | 4.7 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Carina Garland | Labor | 54,448 | 56.4 | +6.9 | 53.3 |
| Gladys Liu | Liberal | 42,070 | 43.6 | -6.9 | 46.7 |
Booths in Chisholm have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Monash council area have been grouped as Central and South-East. Those in the Boroondara and Stonnington council areas have been grouped as West, while those in the Whitehorse council area have been grouped as North.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.3% in the west to almost 60% in the centre and north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.1% in the south-east to 18.2% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 18.2 | 51.3 | 18,333 | 17.1 |
| South-East | 10.1 | 54.4 | 13,498 | 12.6 |
| Central | 14.1 | 59.8 | 10,660 | 10.0 |
| North | 14.8 | 59.7 | 5,369 | 5.0 |
| Pre-poll | 13.9 | 52.6 | 33,408 | 31.2 |
| Other votes | 13.2 | 51.1 | 25,780 | 24.1 |
Election results in Chisholm at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, the Greens and independent candidates.
The redistributions are really interesting as Labor won’t have held it here in 2007 & 2010.
Booths labelled West are increasingly Elite (West of Warrigal Road).
Interesting seat could go either way
West of Warrigal Road (Glen Iris, Camberwell, Ashburton, Malvern East) and east of Springvale Road (eastern Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill) are the most affluent parts. Burwood, Burwood East, Mount Waverley and western Glen Waverley are more middle class, but desirable. Box Hill South, Ashwood and Chadstone are lower middle class with public housing. Ashburton has public housing, but is mostly upper middle class.
Katie Allen – despite the preselection controversy – has been campaigning hard, but Carina Garland is strangely keeping a low profile. I’m favoring Allen to win the seat.
@Ian I think Dutton is on the verge of not only winning Chisholm but the election. I’m my opinion it’s probly about 50/50 on who forms govt atm. But I’m saying Dutton got about a 5% chance if majority. And a 45% chance of minority. The other 50% is a labor minority. Pretty much 0 on labor majority. If Albo can’t reset I think Duttons gonna run him down tbh.
Honestly I would say Labor are favourites here.
This is a seat the Libs have to win for any chance of Dutton becoming PM with either a minority or majority government. The redistribution made this seat a lot more friendlier to the Libs but to win they will have to make a recovery among Chinese voters.
@agreed. If they aren’t winning here they won’t be in govt
I’m not sure why someone would say the Labor Candidate is keeping a low profile. Quite the opposite! Very active. Wonder why you’d think that? Do you actually live in the electorate?
I’m not sure why the person above has suggested the Labor member is low profile. Do you live here? She’s very active! Nobody knows who the Liberal is. It will be very close here.
@Jane Yes I have seen Carina Garland out and about quite a bit in the community if social media’s anything to go by. Definitely in campaigning mode already even if the election hasn’t been called. Yes she’s comparatively low profile in the sense that she’s not in the news all the time like Josh Burns (which could be a good or bad thing, depending on how you look at it) but Labor’s definitely not taking this seat for granted given they need this to stay in government.
On the other hand, Labor’s been slack in Deakin and Menzies which they should be targeting and attacking, especially given the redistribution has helped them greatly. Why they’re not throwing everything at those two seats (along with Sturt and a few of the others), but fluffing around the likes of Gilmore or Paterson is beyond me.
@tommo likely they are busy using there resources defending seats as the swing is coming against them
Jane, I live in the newly added “west of Warrigal Road” area where Allen is known, but Garland is not. It will very likely be close, so Allen should win the “west of Warrigal Road” area and Garland should win her good areas. Sorry, if I wasn’t clear enough before.
I personally would say that Garland is very quiet. People that I know call her the ‘invisible member’. I have seen her once since the election. Furthermore, except for annual calendars, I have only received one thing in the mailbox. That was after I was redistributed out of Chisholm. My state member is on a 12% margin and is far more visible and active than Carina Garland has been, from my point of view. In addition to this, Katie Allen has opened a massive office and is out very often in mount Waverley, an area which I would say is not nessicarily her strongest. For this reason, as much as it pains me, I would tip the Liberals to win this. However, other factors including sophomore swing and the Dutton effect will affect that.
Pity there isn’t an independent. I like what Monique Ryan has done for Kooyong.
I’ve heard from some people that there is a voices for Chisholm group looking for a candidate. They don’t expect them to do well, but simply will give people options.
@Paul Waller what exactly has Monique Ryan done for Kooyong? Last time I checked she’s actually been unpopular in Kooyong and isn’t really a teal but rather just Labor/Greens lite.
I think it would usually be more beneficial to be represented by a cross bencher than an opposition MP, because cross benchers are more likely to work with the government to represent the seat’s views, secure amendments to bills etc looking at each issue on its merit whereas opposition MPs’ main goal is to oppose and play politics and they’re really quite powerless.
Teal will not win here as alp and liberal votes will both be too high and squeeze them out
Nah Chisholm will clearly be a very close ALP v LIB race.
Na a teal has got no chance here. The liberal and Labor vote is too high and they wouldn’t make the 2cp. He’ll they May not even finish third. I expect a very close race between Garland and Allen. Margin around 1 %.
A teal would finish 4th here like they did in Caulfield & Brighton in the state election.
Teals rely on a large percentage of Labor & Greens voters strategically voting for them because they are the best chance of defeating a Liberal in an otherwise safe Liberal seat. They don’t get that strategic vote in marginals that Labor are competitive in or in the case of Chisholm, already hold.
the latest newspoll has the coalition 50-50 in victoria. that would put seats like chisholm and mcewen in the liberal column and seata like dunkley and bruce under serious threat
https://youtu.be/1pBfZwdPgj0?si=4KnXP1sMknEOMaI3&t=3916
When Katie Allen (now Liberal candidate for this seat) gave this interview, I suspect that she had no intention of running again (she says as much in the clip). Now that she is running, quotes like this could be exploited by Labor to highlight disunity of thought within the Coalition. However, Allen is now towing the nuclear line on her social media. She will probably win the seat anyway, but that is how I would be playing it.
@Douglas being pro-nuclear isn’t a problem at all. Most people are pro-nuclear including myself.
James Griffin, the former NSW Environment Minister and the incumbent state Liberal MP for Manly said he would be open to looking at it. He was re-elected in the seat of Manly in 2023 with over 54% TPP despite it being in the tealest parts of Warringah federally.
The other benefit of Dutton soft losing the election and having all the teals and independents prop up labor is the liberals could use that as a precipice to wipe them out.
All of this discussion regarding Teals propping up a Labor government and then getting wiped out is all predicated on the 2025 cross bench being like Windsor, Oakeshott and Wilkie giving effective csrte blanche to the Gillard government. For starters, Wilkie says he wouldn’t do it again and the other Teals would have more political nous than doing it again. For starters Helen Haines would know that it would be political suicide and probsbly Kate Chaney too. If the Teals took the view that they voted to form a Labor Government and then all bets are off I don’t think they would be punished by their electors. However, every piece of legislation would need to be negotiated in both houses so getting things achieved would be difficult. The Albanese Government already gives the impression of inertia – having inertia cast upon it would probably be fatal.
The teals are in parliament because the liberals lost the middle ground. Dutton helps them to continue. Of the cross bench the only sure vote for the lnp is Katter and I would not like to have to rely upon him. To assume the independents etc will only vote with their long-term electoral interest is wide of the mark
Nuclear is not the way to go problems of waste storage and potential accidents exist in any form of Nuclear.
But the Dutton version of Nuclear is not properly costed or worked out and has at least a 10 year lag before implementation.
Should the next parliament be hung, it is not inconceivable that there could a change of government within the term without an election occurring. Similar to 1941 or the first decade of the Federation.
I think for Independent voters, minority government is the ideal situation. Forcing the major parties to negotiate on every piece of legislation and then the member voting on what is best for their communities. I think that would strengthen the independents position not weaken it.
1941 was very different the 2 independents were supporters of Menzies and were upset by his dumping.
Also Australia was in the midst of a national emergency with ww2
This and Reid (nsw) are similar expect.labor to retain both
@mick i xpect reid to be retained on a reduced margin but chisholm i reckon is lineball. the margin there is now within the expected swing so Katie Allen is still in with a shot in my opinion
I assume if Australia had a strong Socially Liberal, big-tent Centrist Party that focuses on the Middle Class somewhere in between Liberal Democrats in the UK (although less focused on the Middle Class) to Liberal Party of Canada (more Middle Class focused although slightly more economically left), I think will do well in seats like Chisholm (both on current and new boundaries) instead of the two-party bellwether (under current boundaries). Would they also win some areas like on the Frankston Line and perhaps even Teal Seats?
Marh: “The Nothing Party” ? “Australian Fence Sitters Party”
Mick & Mick Quinlivan: Will Labor take Kennedy & Maranoa?
@Marh that sounds a lot like the modern Australian Labor Party.
@Adam, Labor is still Social Democratic due to Unions which some Socially Liberal Centrist don’t tend to view them as positively hence you see why Labor can’t win current Teal Seats
A new centrist party could also win Jagajaga, Maribyrnong and Isaacs i reckon
The libs can likely win Isaacs once Dreyfuss retires and jagajaga after further redistributions shift it south in mooroondah
Yeah if Dreyfus retires in 2028 and Labor are still in government they could have a shot at it
Isaacs needs to extend into Beaumaris Blackrock and similar for the libs to have a chance. Those suburbs have shifted into Goldstein
I can actually see Isaacs drifting away at some stage from the Bay and ending up in Dandenong. On the old margins, the Libs might have been able to win it in a very good year. On the new boundaries, too far up the pendulum.
@redistributed Dreyfuss retiring and libs landslide it would be just gettable. But agree with both you and mick if it lost Dandenong and went back to neaumoris it would be easier.
On the assumption that the opinion polls are right. This will be a close election bit like 2010 except Labor is much more united. The growth of the cross bench makes things more complicated and makes it difficult for any government to get an absolute majority. It appears that the election will be April or May. All things being equal… Labor should be relected probably on a minority.
But Dutton thinks he is travelling better than expected and sees a chance.
But he is not ready as the nuclear stuff shows….
@mick agreed on most of that. Also the libs are more united too. 2010 was an upset in that noone predicted that it would be minority and Abbott did better then expect and realistically won the won election but not government. This time around the Libs are in a better position in that yes a Labor minority is likely there is an outside chance of a coalition minority or majority but none is talking about a Labor majority except Albo who is deluted. Al the signs are that albo will call the election after the wa state election wraps up so most likely April 12. Dutton will likely fall just short in a few seats that he would need to either form of government. But the real blocker is those teal seats. If they were still liberal held Dutton would be odds on favourite.
In 2010, Julia Gillard went for a snap poll when Labor were leading 55:45 – they thought they were in like Flynn. Labor ran a dreadful campaign but there was no real inkling there there would be a hung parliament until that last Newspoll the day before. This time, the election will be called when the polls are very even. It will all come down to the campaign period. In 2010, I was still working through my options as I was standing in the queue hoping there would still be a sausage left. In 2022, my mind was made up in 2021. This time – still waiting and seeing.
@redistributed albo has left it oo late for to use the polls to determine it. He’s down to a very small windows with very few dates left. Also she ended up losing Flynn too. I really hope Dutton draws Albo into the Carbon Tax debate. We know the greens want it back.
@redistributed i reckon election day sausages should be compulsory at every booth. And you get it once you leave as a proof of voting type gesture.