LIB 1.4%
Incumbent MP
Aaron Violi, since 2022.
Geography
Eastern fringe of Melbourne. Casey covers the entire Yarra Ranges Shire along with a very small parts of the Cardinia, Manningham and Nillumbik council areas. Major centres include Lilydale, Montrose, Mooroolbark, Seville, Yarra Junction, Healesville and large areas in the Yarra Ranges with small populations.
Redistribution
Casey expanded west, taking in Wonga Park from Menzies and Christmas Hills from McEwen. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 1.5% to 1.4%.
History
Casey was created for the 1969 election and has almost always been considered to be a marginal seat. Despite the slim margins, the Liberal Party has managed to hold onto the seat consistently since 1984, after an early period where the ALP managed to hold it during the Whitlam government and the Hawke government’s first term.
Casey was first won in 1969 by Peter Howson. Howson had been Member for Fawkner since 1955, and had served as Minister for Air from 1964 until John Gorton’s first cabinet reshuffle, when he was dropped. He returned to cabinet as Australia’s first Minister for the Environment in William McMahon’s cabinet in 1971, but lost his seat in 1972 to the ALP’s Race Mathews.
Mathews held Casey for both terms of the Whitlam government, losing the seat to Peter Falconer (LIB) in 1975. Mathews went on to hold the Victorian state seat of Oakleigh from 1979 until 1992, and served as a state minister from 1982 to 1988.
Peter Falconer was reelected in 1977 and 1980, but lost Casey to the ALP’s Peter Steedman in 1983. Steedman held the seat for one term, and lost to Liberal Bob Halverson in 1984.
The Liberal Party never lost Casey again, and Halverson went on to serve as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the first term of the Howard government until his retirement in 1998.
Casey was won in 1998 by Dr Michael Wooldridge, the Howard government’s Health Minister. Wooldridge had previously held Chisholm since 1987, moving to Casey in 1998. He held it for one term before retiring from politics in 2001.
The seat was won in 2001 by Tony Smith. Smith was re-elected six times, and was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in August 2015.
Smith retired in 2022, and Liberal candidate Aaron Violi won Casey.
Assessment
Casey is quite a marginal seat, and Labor has been gaining ground here over time, but 2025 doesn’t look like a good time for Labor to pick up this seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Aaron Violi | Liberal | 36,347 | 36.5 | -8.7 | 36.6 |
| Bill Brindle | Labor | 24,779 | 24.9 | -3.8 | 25.1 |
| Jenny Game | Greens | 12,894 | 12.9 | +2.0 | 13.1 |
| Claire Ferres Miles | Independent | 8,307 | 8.3 | +8.3 | 8.0 |
| Anthony Bellve | United Australia | 4,834 | 4.9 | +2.2 | 4.8 |
| Craig Cole | Independent | 3,455 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 3.3 |
| Paul Murphy | One Nation | 3,260 | 3.3 | +3.2 | 3.3 |
| Trevor Smith | Liberal Democrats | 2,008 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 2.1 |
| Andrew Klop | Animal Justice | 1,844 | 1.9 | -1.2 | 1.8 |
| Peter Sullivan | Hinch’s Justice Party | 1,207 | 1.2 | -2.1 | 1.2 |
| Chris Field | Federation Party | 686 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Informal | 6,652 | 6.3 | -0.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Aaron Violi | Liberal | 51,283 | 51.5 | -3.1 | 51.4 |
| Bill Brindle | Labor | 48,338 | 48.5 | +3.1 | 48.6 |
Polling places in Casey have been divided into five areas.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of five areas, ranging from 50.1% in the east to 53.5% in the centre. Labor won 51.3% in the north and 64.3% in the south-west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.8% in the east to 20% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | IND prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 12.7 | 10.6 | 52.7 | 17,585 | 17.0 |
| Central | 12.4 | 13.8 | 53.5 | 11,322 | 11.0 |
| South-West | 20.0 | 19.2 | 35.7 | 9,147 | 8.9 |
| East | 11.8 | 15.4 | 50.1 | 5,929 | 5.7 |
| North | 17.6 | 11.3 | 48.7 | 4,044 | 3.9 |
| Pre-poll | 11.9 | 10.0 | 53.1 | 33,849 | 32.8 |
| Other votes | 12.4 | 8.6 | 54.3 | 21,359 | 20.7 |
Election results in Casey at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, the Greens and independent candidates.
It would be very atypical of Labor to run dead in a seat they have a 1.4% margin in. Past form with marginal seats is that even if a teal can do well, it’ll default to a two party contest. So I find it hard to believe that they would do so in a seat they aren’t far off winning.
Aaron Violi might be in for a sophomore surge. The Liberals hit rock bottom in 2022 in Victoria.
This time, Labor is largely on the defensive in Victoria. Labor is defending seats like Aston, Chisholm, Macnamara and Wills as well as outer suburban ones e.g. Dunkley, McEwan. I think Deakin might be their only Victorian Liberal-held target.
@ Votante
I agree prior to the 2022 election. Deakin and Casey had largely the same margin but Casey was slightly lower. However, despite Casey not have a sitting member the swing was much less. Deakin is more Middle Australia seat and does not have big variation in booth results compared to Casey which is polarised even excluding state based factors there will be parts of Casey where Dutton will be welcome such as Lilydale and the rural areas but the Mountain areas are very left-wing and will more likely to vote for a Pumpkin than the Liberals and Dutton will not be will received if he decided to stop over at Selby or Kallista.
While I don’t see Labor picking this seat up the Liberal brand appears to be on the noise in Eastern Melbourne as Aaron Violi has been advertising heavily throughout Lilydale and surrounding suburbs, he should get over the line but it will be close. Labor has been put some effort in and targeting those suburbs around Lilydale.
@ SpaceFish
Lilydale tends to Anglo tradies so it is demographic that Dutton appeals to the most.
@Nimalan
I am aware of that, I wasn’t saying Labor would cut through and why’ll Dutton might improve in that part of the electorate he’ll go backwards in other parts.
I agree SpaceFish i think he will go backwards in the Dandenongs etc which will probably make the seat more polarised and more like Macquarie.