Casey – Australia 2025

There has been some polling that has Labor ahead but, honestly I’m sceptical of it. If Labor was leading here then they’d be certainly picking up Menzies and Deakin.

Is this Redbridge MRP polling for Spring 2024? I saw that and it mentioned Labor is “competitive” but not really in front. I also think it’s questionable.

Yes, that is where I’ve seen the polling. I’m sceptical of the polling as the for example the Green primary vote is usually low Gellibrand for some reason. I would say the Liberals and Greens will increase their primary votes with Labor going backwards and Independent falling flat.

@SpaceFish while that Greens polling does seem low for Gellibrand, down about 5% on last election, the heavy Greens voting sections in the North have been lost into Fraser.
The same Redbridge Poll has the Greens vote going up by 5% on last election in Fraser, getting it quite close to the Libs for 2nd.

That MRP polling I reckon is mostly good for identifying trends rather than accurately getting the 2pp margins, and certainly not the primary vote. The fact that it’s found Casey to be competitive twice while the Liberals have pulled ahead in Deakin and Menzies and well ahead in Aston is most interesting.

The MRP polling has more use for looking at trends amongst various demographic groups such as states, gender, age group or region e.g. inner city, rural. We might need to take individual seat predictions with a grain of salt.

Thrle MRP is just based on modelling I think it’s about 4500 people nationwide and that means about 30 per seat. They slthen use modeling based on voter statistics to basically guess.

I wonder if Redbridge’s MRP polling is tapping into the fact that Casey has a relatively “Tealish” demographic in some parts, somewhat similar to Flinders. I believe Climate 200 is planning to target this seat at the election, however this is quite a long shot due to the reasonably strong Labor vote.

No chance cost of living main issue here. Violi to retain

Teals targeting Liberal seats with a competitive Labor vote are just handing those retains to the Liberals, just like in Sturt. Is the Dandenongs part of the seat (which favours Labor on 2pp) really that ‘teal friendly’ or is it more green friendly and tending towards more alternative lifestyle people? I wouldn’t think the suburban areas around Lilydale to be all that teal friendly either tbh.

MRP polling pretty much completely misses local dynamics. Demographic modelling alone is only half the story.

I agree it’s useful to see what the general demographic trends are across the country, and you can use that to inform some analysis at a seat level (eg. You might say “the voters of xx type in this seat might swing a certain way based on the MRP”), but broadly applying it to every seat based on their demographics and trying to estimate the 2PP or primary vote is really quite pointless and inaccurate I think.

The thing is Trent they have been pretty accurate in a lot of places so far. I think you are overestimating individual seat effects, which mostly come down to very specific targeted campaigns (the last election one they underestimated the Teals for instance) rather than actual seat differences, and there really aren’t that many of those.

I agree for probably 100 or so out of the 150 seats, that MRP will be reasonably accurate.

I guess speaking from someone who lives in Macnamara which is quite a unique seat, I wouldn’t really put much faith into an MRP reading of Macnamara, which has similar demographics to some of its surrounding seats but a very different dynamic.

I think Casey possibly fits that bill too, as the demographic profile can potentially miss cultural differences that are unique to an area, eg. Progressive urban environmentalists moving to a regional area for a tree-change may have the same demographic profile as someone born in a regional area with more conservative views, and that’s the sort of detail an MRP might miss.

Not disagreeing, just think the number of seats in that category is closer to 10 than 50 is all.

Re Mrp
It is not intended to predict individual seats. At best it predicts on a basis similar to other polls.
Casey seems to be drifting towards Labor at the moment I would guess liberal retain.

I suspect Casey is quite “dissimilar” to the rest of Victoria and Melbourne hence the usual statewide swing may not apply.
Can I ask anyone who knows this seat well about the chance of it bucking the statewide anti-Labor swing?
Even ignoring the MRP, I think the chance of Labor/Green win in Casey is far bigger (still small – say 10%) than a Labor win in Deakin/Menzies/Aston.

Why do people think the Greens will win this? There’s not even a slight chance.

I’d agree Leon. I don’t specifically know that seat well enough, and I certainly don’t think this is the election where Casey will fall in light of Labor’s current standing in Victoria, but with what I’d consider to be a more pronounced trend towards Labor overall I assume that at the very least, the swing against Labor will be less here than in Deakin, Menzies & Aston, and there is more chance of there being a positive swing (albeit still a very slim chance) than I would say there is in those 3 seats.

I also agree with NP that I don’t think the Greens have a chance of winning this. But it’s a seat where an increased Greens vote could potentially help the ALP more than the other seats, and also there might be a bigger share of voters turned off the ALP who switch to the Greens instead of the Libs and therefore return their preference to the ALP, somewhat taming the 2PP swing.

Casey is a complicated seat like Macnamara or McEwen where there are pockets where the Greens do really well Labor or the Liberals. Aaron Violi has been everywhere which tells me this seat isn’t a safe bet for the Liberals. I don’t think Labor win here this time around and I most certainly don’t think Greens will win here let alone getting any higher then third place in the primary vote.

Violi to hold here with a sophmore surge

I would think the suburban areas around Lilydale will mostly follow the VIC trend this time round, not sure there’s much more juice to squeeze for Labor/greens in the Dandenongs and the Valley.

Yeah this seat will be a comfortable, not safe Liberal retain. Violi has definitely had a productive first term in parliament, and I don’t see him losing when it seems Labor is about to cop a big swing against them in Victoria.

Despite living miles away from this area, I received a Climate 200 push-poll on vote intention here, word is that Labor has no resources to throw at Casey

This has a margin of 1.4%
Means must be taken seriously by all.
But likely liberal retain.

Liberals have a decent local member and a much friendlier national/state environment, Labor have seats to sandbag elsewhere and if they go on the attack anywhere it would be Menzies and Deakin, might as well leave the campaigning to Climate 200 in this race.

Labor hasn’t even preselected anyone here. They obviously aren’t taking it seriously.

It’s likely they may try and get Ferres Miles to come second and then hope a strong preference flow could defeat Aaron Violi, but the current climate and the demographic inconsistency of this seat, Liberals will retain and get a healthy swing. He’s a decent MP and pretty active in the local community, so him being defeated would be a major surprise.