Casey – Australia 2025

There has been some polling that has Labor ahead but, honestly I’m sceptical of it. If Labor was leading here then they’d be certainly picking up Menzies and Deakin.

Is this Redbridge MRP polling for Spring 2024? I saw that and it mentioned Labor is “competitive” but not really in front. I also think it’s questionable.

Yes, that is where I’ve seen the polling. I’m sceptical of the polling as the for example the Green primary vote is usually low Gellibrand for some reason. I would say the Liberals and Greens will increase their primary votes with Labor going backwards and Independent falling flat.

@SpaceFish while that Greens polling does seem low for Gellibrand, down about 5% on last election, the heavy Greens voting sections in the North have been lost into Fraser.
The same Redbridge Poll has the Greens vote going up by 5% on last election in Fraser, getting it quite close to the Libs for 2nd.

That MRP polling I reckon is mostly good for identifying trends rather than accurately getting the 2pp margins, and certainly not the primary vote. The fact that it’s found Casey to be competitive twice while the Liberals have pulled ahead in Deakin and Menzies and well ahead in Aston is most interesting.

The MRP polling has more use for looking at trends amongst various demographic groups such as states, gender, age group or region e.g. inner city, rural. We might need to take individual seat predictions with a grain of salt.

Thrle MRP is just based on modelling I think it’s about 4500 people nationwide and that means about 30 per seat. They slthen use modeling based on voter statistics to basically guess.

I wonder if Redbridge’s MRP polling is tapping into the fact that Casey has a relatively “Tealish” demographic in some parts, somewhat similar to Flinders. I believe Climate 200 is planning to target this seat at the election, however this is quite a long shot due to the reasonably strong Labor vote.

No chance cost of living main issue here. Violi to retain

Teals targeting Liberal seats with a competitive Labor vote are just handing those retains to the Liberals, just like in Sturt. Is the Dandenongs part of the seat (which favours Labor on 2pp) really that ‘teal friendly’ or is it more green friendly and tending towards more alternative lifestyle people? I wouldn’t think the suburban areas around Lilydale to be all that teal friendly either tbh.

MRP polling pretty much completely misses local dynamics. Demographic modelling alone is only half the story.

I agree it’s useful to see what the general demographic trends are across the country, and you can use that to inform some analysis at a seat level (eg. You might say “the voters of xx type in this seat might swing a certain way based on the MRP”), but broadly applying it to every seat based on their demographics and trying to estimate the 2PP or primary vote is really quite pointless and inaccurate I think.

The thing is Trent they have been pretty accurate in a lot of places so far. I think you are overestimating individual seat effects, which mostly come down to very specific targeted campaigns (the last election one they underestimated the Teals for instance) rather than actual seat differences, and there really aren’t that many of those.

I agree for probably 100 or so out of the 150 seats, that MRP will be reasonably accurate.

I guess speaking from someone who lives in Macnamara which is quite a unique seat, I wouldn’t really put much faith into an MRP reading of Macnamara, which has similar demographics to some of its surrounding seats but a very different dynamic.

I think Casey possibly fits that bill too, as the demographic profile can potentially miss cultural differences that are unique to an area, eg. Progressive urban environmentalists moving to a regional area for a tree-change may have the same demographic profile as someone born in a regional area with more conservative views, and that’s the sort of detail an MRP might miss.

Not disagreeing, just think the number of seats in that category is closer to 10 than 50 is all.

Re Mrp
It is not intended to predict individual seats. At best it predicts on a basis similar to other polls.
Casey seems to be drifting towards Labor at the moment I would guess liberal retain.

I suspect Casey is quite “dissimilar” to the rest of Victoria and Melbourne hence the usual statewide swing may not apply.
Can I ask anyone who knows this seat well about the chance of it bucking the statewide anti-Labor swing?
Even ignoring the MRP, I think the chance of Labor/Green win in Casey is far bigger (still small – say 10%) than a Labor win in Deakin/Menzies/Aston.

Why do people think the Greens will win this? There’s not even a slight chance.

I’d agree Leon. I don’t specifically know that seat well enough, and I certainly don’t think this is the election where Casey will fall in light of Labor’s current standing in Victoria, but with what I’d consider to be a more pronounced trend towards Labor overall I assume that at the very least, the swing against Labor will be less here than in Deakin, Menzies & Aston, and there is more chance of there being a positive swing (albeit still a very slim chance) than I would say there is in those 3 seats.

I also agree with NP that I don’t think the Greens have a chance of winning this. But it’s a seat where an increased Greens vote could potentially help the ALP more than the other seats, and also there might be a bigger share of voters turned off the ALP who switch to the Greens instead of the Libs and therefore return their preference to the ALP, somewhat taming the 2PP swing.

Casey is a complicated seat like Macnamara or McEwen where there are pockets where the Greens do really well Labor or the Liberals. Aaron Violi has been everywhere which tells me this seat isn’t a safe bet for the Liberals. I don’t think Labor win here this time around and I most certainly don’t think Greens will win here let alone getting any higher then third place in the primary vote.

Violi to hold here with a sophmore surge

I would think the suburban areas around Lilydale will mostly follow the VIC trend this time round, not sure there’s much more juice to squeeze for Labor/greens in the Dandenongs and the Valley.

Yeah this seat will be a comfortable, not safe Liberal retain. Violi has definitely had a productive first term in parliament, and I don’t see him losing when it seems Labor is about to cop a big swing against them in Victoria.

Despite living miles away from this area, I received a Climate 200 push-poll on vote intention here, word is that Labor has no resources to throw at Casey

This has a margin of 1.4%
Means must be taken seriously by all.
But likely liberal retain.

Liberals have a decent local member and a much friendlier national/state environment, Labor have seats to sandbag elsewhere and if they go on the attack anywhere it would be Menzies and Deakin, might as well leave the campaigning to Climate 200 in this race.

Labor hasn’t even preselected anyone here. They obviously aren’t taking it seriously.

It’s likely they may try and get Ferres Miles to come second and then hope a strong preference flow could defeat Aaron Violi, but the current climate and the demographic inconsistency of this seat, Liberals will retain and get a healthy swing. He’s a decent MP and pretty active in the local community, so him being defeated would be a major surprise.

The only teal part of Casey is south of Mount Dandenong. I think it’s tricky for her to even make the 2CP given the mix of demographics.

Here and elsewhere, there are at least five teal candidates who ran in 2022 and are re-running this election. It’ll be interesting to see if they will increase their vote with more exposure and experience and Labor potentially running dead.

In 2022, the Teal vote was highest in those areas such as Kallista, Belgrave and Upwey. This was also where the Green vote was highest too. The Greens have had a candidate running for a while. I suspect that this is not an area with a ‘soft’ Green vote so the Teals have to get over the top of the Greens first and I am not convinced that they will. Labor only polled 25.5% last time and that will surely go down. Last time various right wing nutties (UAP and ON) had a combined 14%. There will be no doubt a similar group of nutties this time – Casey is that sort of electorate. Their preferences will spray around but will no doubt go to the Libs before the Greens or Teal. Really hard to see the Lib not winning unless Labor absolutely collapse and throw their preferences to the Teal.

Naomi Oakley is Labor’s candidate here. She previously ran in Menzies, and I believe the state seat of Warrandyte.

Does anyone else here think Oakley is a parachute as well?

@Adam – she ran in Warrandyte in 2022, so yes you are correct.

I think she lives in the Warrandyte area very nearby to this seat and grew up in the Yarra Valley. Not a parachute at all. Plus I don’t think you can consider it a ‘parachute’ unless you try and drop someone into a safe seat for your party.

Adam – yes true definition. They must be a bit desperate if no local wants to put their hand up in what is strictly considered a marginal seat.

I’m not sure where she lives exactly. She ran for Menzies last election and a part of it was redistributed into Casey. I reckon a ‘parachute’ is when someone contests in a winnable seat whilst being from at least two metropolitan electorates away.

@Adam out of curiosity, why is it not a parachute candidate unless it’s a safe seat for the party?

@AA I would say parachuting in marginal seats is even worse than in safe seats given marginal seats often have personal votes for MPs.

Unless demographics of some unknown
Event occurs liberal retain

@AA I just think ‘parachuting’ has a negative connotation which implies they are taking the seat for granted and are trying to find an easy seat for someone they want to be in the parliament, without any regard for where they live – like what happened in Fowler, and to a lesser extent Parramatta (wasn’t a safe seat but a seat they were more likely than not to win).

Np parachuting into marginal seats is electoral suicide.

Aa it’s parachuting when they don’t live in the seat(or at least close) or have no connection to the seat whatsover. Some people have lived in the area or a have some sort of a connection even if they don’t currently live there. kK was a parachute because she is a wealthy politician from Scotland Island who they tried to drop into working class seat on the other side of Sydney. Her dress was probably worth what some people make in a month in that seat.

I for example live in Vic but I could contest Forrest in WA because I was born and raised there.

Well, no, because you now live in Victoria.

A bit further away from WA than Cabramatta is from Scotland Island.

@Darth Vader I would say you’d have to move there first or else it’s still kinda parachuting, but Forrest is usually a safe Liberal seat so it’d have less of an impact.

Obviously

Naomi Oakley is the Labor candidate and ran for the state seat of Warrandyte in 2022.

Despite a primary vote of only 12%, this is one of the Greens strongest seats on the 3CP, with Greens 23.18%, Labor 30.41% and Liberal 46.41%. In theory the Greens could win this on a swing of 5% (if the swing was taken from both Labor and Liberal at the right proportions). I’m not sure they will given that this is a cost-of-living election and not a climate and social issues election like 2022, but a Greens win certainly shouldn’t be ruled out.

Very interesting that the Labor and Greens vote combined is 53.59% in this seat, must be a lower Greens to Labor preference flow for this seat must be weak.

Violi to hold well. Liberals throwing the sink at this, more than Menzies. I drove through their yesterday and Wednesday. Spotted half a dozen Ferres Miles signs and a million Aaron violi. Greens putting in more effort here than other similar seats, but won’t make it I don’t think, unless Ferres Miles stays behind them. She will most likely be in the TPP this time.

The problem for the left in this seat, is that it takes in many varied communities. There is the economically conservative wine areas, the more Labor towns, the green bush towns and Dandenongs suburbs, and the Lilydale area which is solidly blue.

@Nether Portal the 3cp is roughly like 47 lib, 30 lab, 23 grn which is good for the greens

Labor don’t appear to be putting any effort here there is a chance the Greens could make it in ttp instead which would be interesting.

Rebridge MRP has the Liberal primary here only at 37%, compared with YouGov at 35%.

Both still marked as Lib retain on 2PP, but that seems low enough to be very vulnerable to Ferres-Miles if she gets ahead of the Greens and snowballs into the top 2? She needs to peel off far fewer Liberal voters than the teal contests in Wannon, Cowper etc. to win a 2CP.

Though Labor running dead and Violi having a decent sophomore bump might position him better than the MRP calculates.