LIB 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Hastie, since 2015.
Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including Mandurah and most of the Peel region. Canning covers the entirety of the Mandurah, Murray, and Waroona council areas, as well as parts of the Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Rockingham council areas.
Redistribution
Canning’s northern boundary was changed, losing Bedfordale, Roleystone, Martin and Karragullen to the new seat of Bullwinkel, and also losing Darling Downs and Oakdale to Burt. Canning gained Karnup, Secret Harbour and Singleton from Brand. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 3.6% to 1.2%.
History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.
Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.
The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.
Gear was defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Ricky Johnston, who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Labor’s Jane Gerick in 1998.
Gerick was defeated narrowly by Liberal candidate Don Randall in 2001.
Randall held Canning for over a decade, winning re-election in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. His narrow margin in 2001 blew out to 59.5% in 2004, shrinking to 52.2% in 2010 before growing out to 61.8% in 2013.
Randall died in early 2015, and the ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. Hastie has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Canning is very marginal but Hastie’s position should be more solid in current circumstances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 41,294 | 43.8 | -5.3 | 41.6 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 30,897 | 32.8 | +5.2 | 35.0 |
| Jodie Moffat | Greens | 7,659 | 8.1 | +0.6 | 8.3 |
| Tammi Siwes | One Nation | 4,215 | 4.5 | -2.6 | 4.6 |
| James Waldeck | United Australia | 2,438 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 2.7 |
| Brad Bedford | Western Australia Party | 2,202 | 2.3 | -0.5 | 2.4 |
| Ashley Williams | Independent | 1,708 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.6 |
| Andriette Du Plessis | Australian Christians | 1,689 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| David Gardiner | Liberal Democrats | 749 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Anthony Gardyne | Federation Party | 628 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Judith Congrene | Informed Medical Options | 785 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 6,558 | 6.5 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Hastie | Liberal | 50,513 | 53.6 | -8.0 | 51.2 |
| Amanda Hunt | Labor | 43,751 | 46.4 | +8.0 | 48.8 |
Booths are split into four areas. About half of the seat’s population is in the Mandurah council area, and this area has been split into Mandurah North and Mandurah South, along the river. The remainder of the seat was split into north and south, with Murray and Waroona council areas in the south, and Rockingham and Serpentine-Jarrahdale council areas in the north.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Mandurah South (53%) and the south (53.5%) while Labor won 52.2% in Mandurah North and 57.1% in the remaining north. The Liberal Party won in part because they won the pre-poll and other votes, which made up almost two thirds of the total vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mandurah North | 10.6 | 47.8 | 9,323 | 10.6 |
| North | 12.6 | 42.9 | 8,362 | 9.5 |
| Mandurah South | 9.9 | 53.0 | 6,236 | 7.1 |
| South | 6.9 | 53.5 | 5,910 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 6.6 | 52.6 | 41,634 | 47.3 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 52.4 | 16,559 | 18.8 |
Election results in Canning at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
At present, there are many seats where the major parties are still to have candidates selected.
This is the page for Jarrad Goold, the ALP candidate for Canning
https://walabor.org.au/pages/jarrad-goold-canning/
Liberal hold.
I believe the liberals have selected candidates in all the winnable seats. With the exception of qld but those are currently in the middle of preselection process. All other seats are not seats the Libs can win.
Jet program canc by alp canc
No costings
Andrew Hastie comments about women serving in the army have surfaced again. With the candidate dropped due to similar comments and given how at the current time when I write this comment the LNP seems to be struggling to cut with the general public. Comments like this and Andrew Hastie’s small margin aren’t going to assist here at all.
Hastings margyin will recover from the wa correction if they were gonna turf him out they would of done so in 2022
SpaceFish, if you seriously think that’s going to affect Hastie’s chances of winning, I have a bridge to sell you.
It’s not going to affect Hastie’s chances of winning but it’ll deal a blow to any ambitions he may have to lead the Libs after Dutton. The Libs might be looking to knife Dutton post-election after a disastrous month of being in the spotlight.
Dan m it will depend on how well he does at the election. If he can get close like Tony Abbott they will keep him on
The redistribution didn’t help Hastie here. If Canning gets pulled any further into Rockingham council he’ll really be sweating.
It’s not that long ago that Brand went all the way down to the Mandurah Estuary – there’s been a serious population boom round here, mainly in Baldivis but also in the suburbs straddling the Rockingham / Mandurah council border.
Noticed on Andrew Hastie’s FB that Tony Abbott has been making a few visits here with him in the past two days. Do the Liberals think they might be in danger here?
If Tony Abbott is the answer, I don’t want to know what the question is.
It could be just two good mates hanging out.
According to William Bowe’s Bludger Track, there’s pretty much no swing in WA. However, it hides the predicted swings between regions. Labor may get swings to them in their own seats or the inner-city whilst suffer swings elsewhere.
I don’t think Labor is targeting Canning. Their focus seems to be retaining Bullwinkel and maybe winning Moore.
Hattie has a good reputation
Hastie
Is Hastie a leadership candidate if Dutton loses?
The shadow front bench is dominated by senators. There’s little HOR members to choose from. Ley, Taylor, Tehan, Sukkar, McIntosh, Coleman… Hastie seems like the standout.
@LNPinsider
Woulkd the thinkin be that Labor will crash and burn by 2028 and the next Liberalo leader is a lay down misere to become PM.
On the late preselection in Griffith, do you know whether it was contested?
Because of the declared candidates, this is the smallest number for many years and Labor would be heavily depending on Green preferences to get them over the line and vice versa.
Woulkd the thinkin be that Labor will crash and burn by 2028 and the next Liberalo leader is a lay down misere to become PM.
@Gympie
I’m kind of over these predictions. Because there not based on anything but bias and cheerleading. How do you know that will happen? How do you know what the issues will be? We have seen things change with the polling and issues with this election campaign. And Gympie your not the only one to do it, but your assumptions are not based on anything except bias.
Hastie would seem the only possible leadership option should Dutton lose. Sussan Ley was descibed by Michelle Grattan as ‘scatty’, Angus Taylor is somewhere between lazy and shallow, Tehan might be unemployed on May 4, Micheal Sukkar is an unelectable toad and David Coleman is invisible (but probably pretty able). After that it is slim pickings in the Reps.
That’s what I mean Redistributed. Several of the key portfolios and talent are Senators (Hume, Paterson Duniam, Price (yes wrong party room), Ruston). Even someone not on the front bench such as Bragg or Sharma are senate.
Price has given a speech just today declaring she wants to “make Australia great again”, pouring petrol on the bonfire of opinion that Dutton is copying the Trump playbook. She has expended her usefulness to the campaign with that comment.
If I was Hastie, I would be thinking that my leadership run should come after whoever comes after Dutton (if Dutton goes after the election). He’s still only 42.
Hastie has a good reputation he is possibly the only competent sucessor to
Dutton
Honestly I can see David Coleman getting up given his surprise promotion to Foreign Affairs. Andrew Hastie might have a bit of baggage from recent events, he’d be better off waiting for now.
How is Hastie a good replacement. He was only a junior officer (i.e. Captain) and had 15 years experience in the Army. You normally get promoted to Major by 10 years. He is also very conservative and seems to be kept quiet for this election.
@bird I doubt it I read somewhere a while ago after the redistribution that the member for brand said that some of the new people in canning would have voted for Hastie in 2022 if they could have. Rockingham is a key military area so obvio husky there are defence votes there and his past as a serving member will help him. Hasties vote should recover after 2022. Once WA corects oher the next cycle they should sure up their margin here.
Angus Taylor would have ambitions too. Usually the treasurer is the most sought after position after leader. So only someone with the right numbers can get that job. And it’s usually a factional deal as seen in the past. Hawke/Keating Howard/Costello Albanese/Chalmers
Also labor don’t seem to be actively targeting this seat despite the low margin
As someone who prefers to see a Moderate as leader, my preference would be Coleman. I think the party would end up choosing Hastie though.
Pls Angus as Dutton’s successor. .but he will be blamed for his role as shadow treasurer in any post election review
Yes I agree but he didn’t get to be treasurer by accident.
Hastie did make a bizarre entry into the Trump tariff brouhaha, suggesting Australia offer the Orange Loon a critical minerals deal. Afaik, these minerals aren’t rare, just the environmental degradation from digging up a processing them is something few nations want to sign up to.
Anyway, Trump backflipped on the tariffs, everyone’s now on 10% except China on 145%.
So, Hastie exposed as a policy lightweight prepared to negotiate a clean environment for a mess of pottage.