ALP 12.2% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Alicia Payne, since 2019.
Geography
The seat of Canberra covers the central suburbs of the city of Canberra, including Civic, the Parliamentary Triangle, the inner north and south and parts of Belconnen (Bruce, Cook, Kaleen, Lawson and Hawker) and Woden Valley (Curtin, Garran, Hughes and Lyons).
History
The Australian Capital Territory first elected an MP from 1949 onwards, although this MP was only given full voting rights in 1968. Canberra was created in 1974 when the ACT gained a second seat, and the existing electorate was divided into Fraser and Canberra. The ACT gained a third electorate, Namadgi, at the 1996 election.
At the 1996 election, Canberra was redrawn into an inner-city electorate, similar to its current arrangement. This arrangement was rewound when the ACT lost its third seat in 1998, so for most of the territory’s history it has only elected two members: one northern and one southern.
Both seats have been reasonably safe for Labor for most of their history. The only break in Labor’s control happened at the 1995 Canberra by-election, which was won by the Liberal Party. Labor won back this seat in 1996.
The redistribution prior to the 2019 election restored the ACT’s third electorate. The southern electorate was renamed “Bean” with the name Canberra applied to a new central electorate. This seat was won by Labor candidate Alicia Payne. Payne was re-elected in 2022.
- Mary-Jane Liddicoat (HEART)
- Claire Miles (Independent)
- Isabel Mudford (Greens)
- Alicia Payne (Labor)
- Will Roche (Liberal)
Assessment
The main threat to Labor in the seat of Canberra comes from the Greens, but Alicia Payne is probably safe here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Alicia Payne | Labor | 41,435 | 44.9 | +4.4 |
| Tim Hollo | Greens | 22,795 | 24.7 | +1.4 |
| Slade Minson | Liberal | 20,102 | 21.8 | -6.1 |
| Tim Bohm | Independent | 4,772 | 5.2 | +0.5 |
| Catherine Smith | United Australia | 1,687 | 1.8 | +0.3 |
| James Miles | One Nation | 1,531 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Informal | 1,668 | 1.8 | -0.4 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Alicia Payne | Labor | 57,421 | 62.2 |
| Tim Hollo | Greens | 34,901 | 37.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Alicia Payne | Labor | 66,898 | 72.5 | +5.4 |
| Slade Minson | Liberal | 25,424 | 27.5 | -5.4 |
Polling places in Canberra have been divided into three areas: inner north, inner south and Belconnen. The inner south includes the parts of Woden Valley contained in this electorate.
Labor’s two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) ranged from 56.6% in the inner north to 64.9% in the inner south.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15.4% in the inner north to 24.2% in the inner south.
| Voter group | LIB prim | ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Inner South | 24.2 | 64.9 | 16,645 | 18.0 |
| Inner North | 15.4 | 56.6 | 16,609 | 18.0 |
| Belconnen | 20.2 | 64.0 | 9,748 | 10.6 |
| Pre-poll | 23.0 | 62.3 | 37,290 | 40.4 |
| Other votes | 24.6 | 64.3 | 12,030 | 13.0 |
Election results in Canberra at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred (Labor vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
Talking to Tim Hollo after the last election, it doesn’t look like he’s planning to run again in Canberra. I’m not sure that he’s not changed his mind, but it would have a big impact on the Green vote here, I would argue. There’s not really much of a path to anyone but Labor winning in Canberra, and even more so without a well-known local candidate like Hollo to drive the Green vote.
Hollo was a strong candidate that would be perfect if the Greens had safe sests. As it stands he isn’t exactly a household name, nor was he particularly well positioned to appeal outside the core Green demographics.
Canberra is tough for Greens compared to other heavily left leaning seats as shown by them not winning a single booth. But it’s winnable for Greens if a few things line up. A disappointing Labor government that pisses off the public servants is the right spark for it. David Pocock has shown the value of a local representative that isn’t aligned to a major party. The federal Green party room hasn’t shown much interest in Canberra issues (like the NCA) – that would need to change for a serious tilt.
If Shane Rattenbury leaves ACT politics and runs for Canberra he could win. His track record of working constructively with Labor would go down well here. Maybe Rebecca Vassarotti as well if she doesn’t survive the 2024 ACT election.
It will still be tough for Greens to come out on top in contests where Libs come 3rd. Hollo benefited from an open ticket in 2022 – even then Labor was too far ahead and gained votes after the Liberal exclusion.
But if Greens can start winning seats like Cooper and Wills then Canberra makes sense as a target.
Canberra is way tougher for the Greens to win than Cooper and Wills. The Liberals still come second on primaries in most of South Canberra and this holds up the Labor vote in an ALP vs GRN contest. Yarralumla, Deakin and Red Hill are old-money Liberal. The outskirts of Belconnen are more suburban and would also have a slightly lower Greens vote.
There’s a possibility of the Liberals taking a risk and preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor. Although this is unlikely, it’s more likely to happen in the ACT than outside the ACT as the Liberals have nothing to lose here. Outside the ACT, a Greens-Liberals deal would cause a lot of uproar within the Coalition, especially a Dutton-led one.
@ Votante
Further to your point. The Greens only made the 2CP last election because the Libs primary vote collapsed in the Old-money areas you mentioned as they are include a lot of small L liberals. The other thing is that Canberra is not really seeing gentrification like Cooper or Wills never had working class voters to begin with. Rather there is some densification along the Tram corridor which is increasing the number of young renters. I dont think Labor can get knocked out of the 2CP in Canberra so it relies on Libs preferencing the Greens.
The Greens have preselected Isabel Mudford, a Sociology PhD student at the Australian National University, as their candidate for Canberra next election.
Labor hold, small swing to the Greens (2-4%).
Labor has re-preselected sitting MP Alicia Payne for this seat.
Greens have already preselected, but Rebecca Vassarotti is now available if the Greens want to really target this seat. Even better, if Rattenbury quits ACT politics, letting Vassarotti fill the count back, he could run.
Emma Davidson could run in Bean, though she wouldn’t move the needle much there.
Labor won’t be losing any of their act seats to the greens anytime soon. Not unless the libs preference them.
No reason to think the Liberal vote will increase much – the ACT election showed that the electorate does not yet believe the local Liberal Party has definitively moved on from its perviously conservative leadership
i really dont think Libs will preference Greens in this seat. I also doubt it will become a GRN V LIB seat so Labor retain.
With the Greens, seems like neither Davidson or Vassarotti are running in 2025. Might be subjective but a lot less energy compared to 2019 and 2022 as well.
Maybe the Greens are a spent force in the ACT. Despite having then numbers and an offer to be in coalition with Labor again they are sitting on the crossbench in ACT politics. They showed a lack of bench depth at the ACT election. I don’t think the “left populism” that will do well for the Greens in most jurisdictions will do as well in the ACT. I think foreign policy orthodoxy still reigns supreme in the ACT and the Greens taking an overwhelmingly pro Palestine position even in the immediate aftermath of October 7 would have lost them votes here.
Combined with a uniform ALP to LNP swing, Greens may well slip into 3rd or lower – a decent chance that they get outpolled by whoever the media anoints as a “high profile independent”. That independent may also get Liberals preferences that the Greens wouldn’t – keep an eye out for possible tactical voting campaigns.
Having said all that the Greens did end up outpolling the independents in Kurrajong (just by nowhere near enough to save Vassarotti), preference flows from Independents to Greens were generally pretty strong and the Liberals got their worst ever result. Maybe there is still enough to work with for Greens to still have a chance – it just ultimately depends on Liberal preferences that are unlikely to be forthcoming.
https://canberraliberals.org.au/team/will-roche/
Dutton’s policies to cut 36,000 APS jobs and force public servants back to full time office work will go down like a lead balloon here, and it doesn’t help that the Liberal candidate looks like one of Musk’s teenage DOGE goons.
So it’s likely to again be a non-traditional 2PP, but the most likely impact will be Labor’s primary staying sky high.
Haven’t seen any evidence of a credible independent challenger in the seat to make any more dents in Labor’s primary. The Greens candidiate seems to be trying, but you can tell the energy isn’t really there compared to other years. As per my comment months ago – still getting “spent force” vibes from the Greens in the ACT. So probably a status quo result – Labor vs Greens 2PP with Labor on a very safe margin.
Blue Not John, that’s an interesting take.
I believe that outside ACT, NT has the most APS jobs per capita of any state or territory. Outside of the capital region, perhaps NT would be the most put off by APS job cuts.
To be frank, I never thought that the Liberals would regain their senate seat at this election nor win any seats in the ACT. The DOGE campaign or cutting public servants wouldn’t hurt their chances politically in the capital region.
Because Australia is less corrupt and has more transparency and trust in government than the US, people would be less accepting of a DOGE-like moves like mass layoffs of park rangers or claims of people aged over 200 earning social security.